Aspirin for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Relation to Lipoprotein(a) Genotypes.

BACKGROUND: The role of aspirin in reducing lipoprotein(a)-mediated atherothrombotic events in primary prevention is not established. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess whether low-dose aspirin benefits individuals with elevated plasma lipoprotein(a)-associated genotypes in the setting of primary prevention. METHODS: The study analyzed 12,815 genotyped individuals ≥70 years of age of European ancestry and without prior cardiovascular disease events enrolled in the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) randomized controlled trial of 100 mg/d aspirin. We defined lipoprotein(a)-associated genotypes using rs3798220-C carrier status and quintiles of a lipoprotein(a) genomic risk score (LPA-GRS). We tested for interaction between genotypes and aspirin allocation in Cox proportional hazards models for incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and clinically significant bleeding. We also examined associations in the aspirin and placebo arms of the trial separately. RESULTS: During a median 4.7 years (IQR: 3.6-5.7 years) of follow-up, 435 MACE occurred, with an interaction observed between rs3798220-C and aspirin allocation (P = 0.049). rs3798220-C carrier status was associated with increased MACE risk in the placebo group (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.11-3.24) but not in the aspirin group (HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.17-1.70). High LPA-GRS (vs low) was associated with increased MACE risk in the placebo group (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.14-2.55), with risk attenuated in the aspirin group (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.90-2.23), but the interaction was not statistically significant. In all participants, aspirin reduced MACE by 1.7 events per 1,000 person-years and increased clinically significant bleeding by 1.7 events per 1,000 person-years. However, in the rs3798220-C and high LPA-GRS subgroups, aspirin reduced MACE by 11.4 and 3.3 events per 1,000 person-years respectively, without significantly increased bleeding risk. CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin may benefit older individuals with elevated lipoprotein(a) genotypes in primary prevention.

Clinical impact of whole-genome sequencing in patients with early-onset dementia.

BACKGROUND: In the clinical setting, identification of the genetic cause in patients with early-onset dementia (EOD) is challenging due to multiple types of genetic tests required to arrive at a diagnosis. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has the potential to serve as a single diagnostic platform, due to its superior ability to detect common, rare and structural genetic variation. METHODS: WGS analysis was performed in 50 patients with EOD. Point mutations, small insertions/deletions, as well as structural variants (SVs) and short tandem repeats (STRs), were analysed. An Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related polygenic risk score (PRS) was calculated in patients with AD. RESULTS: Clinical genetic diagnosis was achieved in 7 of 50 (14%) of the patients, with a further 8 patients (16%) found to have established risk factors which may have contributed to their EOD. Two pathogenic variants were identified through SV analysis. No expanded STRs were found in this study cohort, but a blinded analysis with a positive control identified a C9orf72 expansion accurately. Approximately 37% (7 of 19) of patients with AD had a PRS equivalent to >90th percentile risk. DISCUSSION: WGS acts as a single genetic test to identify different types of clinically relevant genetic variations in patients with EOD. WGS, if used as a first-line clinical diagnostic test, has the potential to increase the diagnostic yield and reduce time to diagnosis for EOD.

Incident Cancer Risk and Signatures Among Older MUTYH Carriers: Analysis of Population-Based and Genomic Cohorts.

MUTYH carriers have an increased colorectal cancer risk in case-control studies, with loss of heterozygosity (LOH) as the presumed mechanism. We evaluated cancer risk among carriers in a prospective, population-based cohort of older adults. In addition, we assessed if cancers from carriers demonstrated mutational signatures (G:C>T:A transversions) associated with early LOH. We calculated incident risk of cancer and colorectal cancer among 13,131 sequenced study participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly cohort, stratified by sex and adjusting for age, smoking, alcohol use, BMI, polyp history, history of cancer, and aspirin use. MUTYH carriers were identified among 13,033 participants in The Cancer Genome Atlas and International Cancer Genome Consortium, and somatic signatures of cancers were analyzed. Male MUTYH carriers demonstrated an increased risk for overall cancer incidence [multivariable HR, 1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-2.68; P = 0.038] driven by increased colorectal cancer incidence (multivariable HR, 3.55; 95% CI, 1.42-8.78; P = 0.007), as opposed to extracolonic cancer incidence (multivariable HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.81-2.44; P = 0.229). Female carriers did not demonstrate increased risk of cancer, colorectal cancer, or extracolonic cancers. Analysis of mutation signatures from cancers of MUTYH carriers revealed no significant contribution toward early mutagenesis from widespread G:C>T:A transversions among gastrointestinal epithelial cancers. Among cancers from carriers, somatic transversions associated with base-excision repair deficiency are uncommon, suggestive of diverse mechanisms of carcinogenesis in carriers compared with those who inherit biallelic MUTYH mutations. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Despite absence of loss of heterozygosity in colorectal cancers, elderly male MUTYH carriers appeared to be at increased of colorectal cancer.

Genomic Risk Score for Advanced Osteoarthritis in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVE: Prevention of osteoarthritis (OA) remains important, as there are no disease-modifying treatments. A personalized approach has the potential to better target prevention strategies. In the present study, we used recently identified genetic risk variants from genome-wide association analysis for advanced OA to calculate polygenic risk scores (PRS) for knee and hip OA and assessed PRS performance in an independent population of older community-dwelling adults. METHODS: PRS were calculated in 12,093 individuals of European genetic descent ages ≥70 years who were enrolled in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial. The outcome measure was knee and hip replacement (hospitalizations during the trial and self-reported joint replacements before enrollment). PRS were considered as continuous (per SD) and categorical (low risk [0-20%], medium risk [21-80%], high risk [81-100%]) variables. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between PRS and risk of joint replacement, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Among the participants, 1,422 (11.8%) had knee replacements and 1,297 (10.7%) had hip replacements. PRS (per SD) were associated with a risk of knee replacement (odds ratio [OR] 1.13 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.07-1.20]) and hip replacement (OR 1.23 [95% CI 1.16-1.30]). Participants with high PRS had an increased risk of knee replacement (OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.20-1.73]) and hip replacement (OR 1.88 [95% CI 1.56-2.26]), compared to those with low PRS. Associations were stronger for PRS and hip replacement risk in women than in men. Associations were similar in sensitivity analyses that examined joint replacements before and during the trial separately. CONCLUSION: PRS have the potential to improve prevention of severe knee and hip OA by providing a personalized approach and identifying individuals who may benefit from early intervention.

Using whole-genome sequencing to characterize clinically significant blood groups among healthy older Australians.

There have been no comprehensive studies of a full range of blood group polymorphisms within the Australian population. This problem is compounded by the absence of any databases carrying genomic information on chronically transfused patients and low frequency blood group antigens in Australia. Here, we use RBCeq, a web server-based blood group genotyping software, to identify unique blood group variants among Australians and compare the variation detected vs global data. Whole-genome sequencing data were analyzed for 2796 healthy older Australians from the Medical Genome Reference Bank and compared with data from 1000 Genomes phase 3 (1KGP3) databases comprising 661 African, 347 American, 503 European, 504 East Asian, and 489 South Asian participants. There were 661 rare variants detected in this Australian sample population, including 9 variants that had clinical associations. Notably, we identified 80 variants that were computationally predicted to be novel and deleterious. No clinically significant rare or novel variants were found associated with the genetically complex ABO blood group system. For the Rh blood group system, 2 novel and 15 rare variants were found. Our detailed blood group profiling results provide a starting point for the creation of an Australian blood group variant database.

The PAR4 Platelet Thrombin Receptor Variant rs773902 does not Impact the Incidence of Thrombotic or Bleeding Events in a Healthy Older Population.

BACKGROUND: Protease-activated receptor 4 (PAR4) is a platelet thrombin receptor important for thrombosis and a target of antiplatelet drug development. A frequently occurring single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs773902) causes a PAR4 sequence variant (NC_000019.10:p.Ala120Thr) whereby platelets from Thr120-expressing individuals are hyperresponsive to PAR4 agonists versus platelets from Ala120-expressing individuals. However, whether this enhanced platelet responsiveness translates to increased thrombotic risk or decreased bleeding risk remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: This article examines the association of rs773902 with adjudicated cardiovascular events and aspirin use in a randomized trial population of healthy older individuals. METHODS: We analyzed 13,547 participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial. Participants had no previous cardiovascular events at enrollment and were randomized to either 100 mg daily aspirin or placebo for a median follow-up of 4.7 years. Total genotypes were 8,761 (65%) GG (Ala120 variant), 4,303 (32%) heterozygotes, and 483 (4%) AA (Thr120 variant). Cox proportional hazard regression tested the relationship between rs773902 and thrombotic events (major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE] and ischemic stroke [IS]) and bleeding (major hemorrhage [MHEM] and intracranial bleeding [ICB]). RESULTS: No statistically significant association was observed overall or by treatment group between rs773902 and any thrombotic or bleeding event examined. Further, there was no significant interaction between rs773902 and treatment for any of MACE, IS, MHEM, or ICB. CONCLUSION: This post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study suggests that, despite sensitizing platelet activation, the rs773902 PAR4 variant is not associated with thrombotic cardiovascular or bleeding events in a healthy older population.

Identification of novel loci influencing refractive error in East Asian populations using an extreme phenotype design.

The global "myopia boom" has raised significant international concerns. Despite a higher myopia prevalence in Asia, previous large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were mostly based on European descendants. Here, we report a GWAS of spherical equivalent (SE) in 1852 Chinese Han individuals with extreme SE from Guangzhou (631 < -6.00D and 574 > 0.00D) and Wenzhou (593 < -6.00D and 54 > -1.75D), followed by a replication study in two independent cohorts with totaling 3538 East Asian individuals. The discovery GWAS and meta-analysis identify three novel loci, which show genome-wide significant associations with SE, including 1q25.2 FAM163A, 10p11.22 NRP1/PRAD3, and 10p11.21 ANKRD30A/MTRNR2L7, together explaining 3.34% of SE variance. 10p11.21 is successfully replicated. The allele frequencies of all three loci show significant differences between major continental groups (P < 0.001). The SE reducing (more myopic) allele of rs10913877 (1q25.2 FAM163A) demonstrates the highest frequency in East Asians and much lower frequencies in Europeans and Africans (EAS = 0.60, EUR = 0.20, and AFR = 0.18). The gene-based analysis additionally identifies three novel genes associated with SE, including EI24, LHX5, and ARPP19. These results provide new insights into myopia pathogenesis and indicate the role of genetic heterogeneity in myopia epidemiology among different ethnicities.

Population genomic screening of young adults for familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering population genomic screening to all young adults in Australia to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH). METHODS AND RESULTS: We designed a decision analytic Markov model to compare the current standard of care for heterozygous FH diagnosis in Australia (opportunistic cholesterol screening and genetic cascade testing) with the alternate strategy of population genomic screening of adults aged 18-40 years to detect pathogenic variants in the LDLR/APOB/PCSK9 genes. We used a validated cost-adaptation method to adapt findings to eight high-income countries. The model captured coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity/mortality over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare and societal perspectives. Risk of CHD, treatment effects, prevalence, and healthcare costs were estimated from published studies. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore the impact of key input parameters on the robustness of the model. Over the lifetime of the population (4 167 768 men; 4 129 961 women), the model estimated a gain of 33 488years of life lived and 51 790 QALYs due to CHD prevention. Population genomic screening for FH would be cost-effective from a healthcare perspective if the per-test cost was ≤AU$250, yielding an ICER of

Prognostic Value of a Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease in Individuals Aged 70 Years and Older.

BACKGROUND: The use of a polygenic risk score (PRS) to improve risk prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events has been demonstrated to have clinical utility in the general adult population. However, the prognostic value of a PRS for CHD has not been examined specifically in older populations of individuals aged ≥70 years, who comprise a distinct high-risk subgroup. The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of a PRS for incident CHD events in a prospective cohort of older individuals without a history of cardiovascular events. METHODS: We used data from 12 792 genotyped, healthy older individuals enrolled into the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly), a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial investigating the effect of daily 100 mg aspirin on disability-free survival. Participants had no previous history of diagnosed atherothrombotic cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. We calculated a PRS (meta-genomic risk score) consisting of 1.7 million genetic variants. The primary outcome was a composite of incident myocardial infarction or CHD death over 5 years. RESULTS: At baseline, the median population age was 73.9 years, and 54.9% were female. In total, 254 incident CHD events occurred. When the PRS was added to conventional risk factors, it was independently associated with CHD (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.42], P=0.002). The area under the curve of the conventional model was 70.53 (95% CI, 67.00-74.06), and after inclusion of the PRS increased to 71.78 (95% CI, 68.32-75.24, P=0.019), demonstrating improved prediction. Reclassification was also improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.15-0.28). CONCLUSION: A PRS for CHD performs well in older people and improves prediction over conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Our study provides evidence that genomic risk prediction for CHD has clinical utility in individuals aged 70 years and older. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583.

A polygenic risk score predicts mosaic loss of chromosome Y in circulating blood cells.

BACKGROUND: Mosaic loss of Y chromosome (LOY) is the most common somatic change that occurs in circulating white blood cells of older men. LOY in leukocytes is associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality and a range of common disease such as hematological and non-hematological cancer, Alzheimer's disease, and cardiovascular events. Recent genome-wide association studies identified up to 156 germline variants associated with risk of LOY. The objective of this study was to use these variants to calculate a novel polygenic risk score (PRS) for LOY, and to assess the predictive performance of this score in a large independent population of older men. RESULTS: We calculated a PRS for LOY in 5131 men aged 70 years and older. Levels of LOY were estimated using microarrays and validated by whole genome sequencing. After adjusting for covariates, the PRS was a significant predictor of LOY (odds ratio [OR] = 1.74 per standard deviation of the PRS, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.62-1.86, p < 0.001). Men in the highest quintile of the PRS distribution had > fivefold higher risk of LOY than the lowest (OR = 5.05, 95% CI 4.05-6.32, p < 0.001). Adding the PRS to a LOY prediction model comprised of age, smoking and alcohol consumption significantly improved prediction (AUC = 0.628 [CI 0.61-0.64] to 0.695 [CI 0.67-0.71], p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that a PRS for LOY could become a useful tool for risk prediction and targeted intervention for common disease in men.

Population-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing.

Population-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing are urgently required. Most prior research has been based on women selected for high-risk features and more data is needed to make inference about breast cancer risk for women unselected for family history, an important consideration of population screening. We tested 1464 women diagnosed with breast cancer and 862 age-matched controls participating in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS), and 6549 healthy, older Australian women enroled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study for rare germline variants using a 24-gene-panel. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age and other potential confounders. We identified pathogenic variants in 11.1% of the ABCFS cases, 3.7% of the ABCFS controls and 2.2% of the ASPREE (control) participants. The estimated breast cancer OR [95% confidence interval] was 5.3 [2.1-16.2] for BRCA1, 4.0 [1.9-9.1] for BRCA2, 3.4 [1.4-8.4] for ATM and 4.3 [1.0-17.0] for PALB2. Our findings provide a population-based perspective to gene-panel testing for breast cancer predisposition and opportunities to improve predictors for identifying women who carry pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes.

A Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Incident Prostate Cancer Risk in Older Men but Does Not Select for Clinically Significant Disease.

Despite the high prevalence of prostate cancer in older men, the predictive value of a polygenic risk score (PRS) remains uncertain in men aged ≥70 years. We used a 6.6 million-variant PRS to predict the risk of incident prostate cancer in a prospective study of 5701 men of European descent aged ≥70 years (mean age 75 years) enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial. The study endpoint was prostate cancer, including metastatic or non-metastatic disease, confirmed by an expert panel. After excluding participants with a history of prostate cancer at enrolment, we used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to assess the association between the PRS and incident prostate cancer risk, adjusting for covariates. Additionally, we examined the distribution of Gleason grade groups by PRS group to determine if a higher PRS was associated with higher grade disease. We tested for interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment. Logistic regression was used to independently assess the association of the PRS with prevalent (pre-trial) prostate cancer, reported in medical histories. During a median follow-up time of 4.6 years, 218 of the 5701 participants (3.8%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer. The PRS predicted incident risk with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.52 per standard deviation (SD) (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.74, p < 0.001). Men in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an almost three times higher risk of prostate cancer than men in the lowest quintile (HR = 2.99 (95% CI 1.90-4.27), p < 0.001). However, a higher PRS was not associated with a higher Gleason grade groups. We found no interaction between aspirin treatment and the PRS for prostate cancer risk. The PRS was also associated with prevalent prostate cancer (odds ratio = 1.80 per SD (95% CI 1.65-1.96), p < 0.001).While a PRS for prostate cancer is strongly associated with incident risk in men aged ≥70 years, the clinical utility of the PRS as a biomarker is currently limited by its inability to select for clinically significant disease.

Protective lipid-lowering variants in healthy older individuals without coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: Genetic variants that disrupt the function of the PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9) and APOB (apolipoprotein B)genes result in lower serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and subsequently confer protection against coronary heart disease (CHD). The objective of this study was to measure the prevalence and selective advantage of such variants among healthy older individuals without a history of CHD. METHODS: We performed targeted sequencing of the PCSK9 and APOB genes in 13 131 healthy individuals without CHD aged 70 years or older enrolled into the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial. We detected variants in the PCSK9 and APOB genes with predicted loss-of-function. We associated variant carrier status with serum LDL-C and total cholesterol (TC) levels at the time of study enrolment, adjusting for statin use. RESULTS: We detected 22 different rare PCSK9/APOB candidate variants with putative lipid-lowering effect, carried by 104 participants (carrier rate 1 in 126). Serum LDL-C and TC concentrations for rare PCSK9/APOB variant carriers were consistently lower than non-carriers. Rare variant carrier status was associated with 19.4 mg/dL (14.6%) lower LDL-C, compared with non-carriers (p≤0.001, adjusted for statin use). Statin prescriptions were less prevalent in rare variant carriers (16%) than non-carriers (35%). The more common PCSK9 R46L variant (rs11591147-T) was associated with 15.5 mg/dL (11.8%) lower LDL-C in heterozygotes, and 25.2 mg/dL (19.2%) lower LDL-C in homozygotes (both p≤0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Lipid-lowering genetic variants are carried by healthy older individuals and contribute to CHD-free survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01038583.

Polygenic score modifies risk for Alzheimer's disease in APOE ε4 homozygotes at phenotypic extremes.

INTRODUCTION: Diversity in cognition among apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 homozygotes can range from early-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) to a lifetime with no symptoms. METHODS: We evaluated a phenotypic extreme polygenic risk score (PRS) for AD between cognitively healthy APOE ε4 homozygotes aged ≥75 years (n = 213) and early-onset APOE ε4 homozygote AD cases aged ≤65 years (n = 223) as an explanation for this diversity. RESULTS: The PRS for AD was significantly higher in APOE ε4 homozygote AD cases compared to older cognitively healthy APOE ε4/ε4 controls (odds ratio [OR] 8.39; confidence interval [CI] 2.0-35.2; P = .003). The difference in the same PRS between APOE ε3/ε3 extremes was not as significant (OR 3.13; CI 0.98-9.92; P = .053) despite similar numbers and power. There was no statistical difference in an educational attainment PRS between these age extreme case-controls. DISCUSSION: A PRS for AD contributes to modified cognitive expression of the APOE ε4/ε4 genotype at phenotypic extremes of risk.

Genomic Risk Prediction for Breast Cancer in Older Women.

Genomic risk prediction models for breast cancer (BC) have been predominantly developed with data from women aged 40-69 years. Prospective studies of older women aged ≥70 years have been limited. We assessed the effect of a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) for BC in 6339 older women aged ≥70 years (mean age 75 years) enrolled into the ASPREE trial, a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial investigating the effect of daily 100 mg aspirin on disability-free survival. We evaluated incident BC diagnoses over a median follow-up time of 4.7 years. A multivariable Cox regression model including conventional BC risk factors was applied to prospective data, and re-evaluated after adding the PRS. We also assessed the association of rare pathogenic variants (PVs) in BC susceptibility genes (BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2/CHEK2/ATM). The PRS, as a continuous variable, was an independent predictor of incident BC (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-1.6) and hormone receptor (ER/PR)-positive disease (HR = 1.5 (CI 1.2-1.9)). Women in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had over two-fold higher risk of BC than women in the lowest quintile (HR = 2.2 (CI 1.2-3.9)). The concordance index of the model without the PRS was 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.68), which improved after addition of the PRS to 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.71). Among 41 (0.6%) carriers of PVs in BC susceptibility genes, we observed no incident BC diagnoses. Our study demonstrates that a PRS predicts incident BC risk in women aged 70 years and older, suggesting potential clinical utility extends to this older age group.

Genetic variants associated with inherited cardiovascular disorders among 13,131 asymptomatic older adults of European descent.

Genetic testing is used to optimise the management of inherited cardiovascular disorders that can cause sudden cardiac death. Yet more genotype-phenotype correlation studies from populations not ascertained on clinical symptoms or family history of disease are required to improve understanding of gene penetrance. We performed targeted sequencing of 25 genes used routinely in clinical genetic testing for inherited cardiovascular disorders in a population of 13,131 asymptomatic older individuals (mean age 75 years) enrolled in the ASPREE trial. Participants had no prior history of cardiovascular disease events, dementia or physical disability at enrolment. Variants were classified following ACMG/AMP standards. Sudden and rapid cardiac deaths were clinically adjudicated as ASPREE trial endpoints, and assessed during mean 4.7 years of follow-up. In total, 119 participants had pathogenic/deleterious variants in one of the 25 genes analysed (carrier rate of 1 in 110 or 0.9%). Participants carried variants associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (N = 24), dilated cardiomyopathy (N = 29), arrhythmogenic right-ventricular cardiomyopathy (N = 22), catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (N = 4), aortopathies (N = 1), and long-QT syndrome (N = 39). Among 119 carriers, two died from presumed sudden/rapid cardiac deaths during follow-up (1.7%); both with pathogenic variants in long-QT syndrome genes (KCNQ1, SCN5A). Among non-carriers, the rate of sudden/rapid cardiac deaths was significantly lower (0.08%, 11/12936, p < 0.001). Variants associated with inherited cardiovascular disorders are found in asymptomatic individuals aged 70 years and older without a history of cardiovascular disease.

Effect of APOE and a polygenic risk score on incident dementia and cognitive decline in a healthy older population.

Few studies have measured the effect of genetic factors on dementia and cognitive decline in healthy older individuals followed prospectively. We studied cumulative incidence of dementia and cognitive decline, stratified by APOE genotypes and polygenic risk score (PRS) tertiles, in 12,978 participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. At enrolment, participants had no history of diagnosed dementia, cardiovascular disease, physical disability or cognitive impairment. Dementia (adjudicated trial endpoint) and cognitive decline, defined as a >1.5 standard deviation decline in test score for either global cognition, episodic memory, language/executive function or psychomotor speed, versus baseline scores. Cumulative incidence for all-cause dementia and cognitive decline was calculated with mortality as a competing event, stratified by APOE genotypes and tertiles of a PRS based on 23 common non-APOE variants. During a median 4.5 years of follow-up, 324 participants developed dementia, 503 died. Cumulative incidence of dementia to age 85 years was 7.4% in all participants, 12.6% in APOE ε3/ε4 and 26.6% in ε4/ε4. APOE ε4 heterozygosity/homozygosity was associated with a 2.5/6.3-fold increased dementia risk and 1.4/1.8-fold cognitive decline risk, versus ε3/ε3 (p < 0.001 for both). High PRS tertile was associated with a 1.4-fold dementia risk versus low (CI 1.04-1.76, p = 0.02), but was not associated with cognitive decline (CI 0.96-1.22, p = 0.18). Incidence of dementia among healthy older individuals is low across all genotypes; however, APOE ε4 and high PRS increase relative risk. APOE ε4 is associated with cognitive decline, but PRS is not.

Predictive Performance of a Polygenic Risk Score for Incident Ischemic Stroke in a Healthy Older Population.

Background and Purpose: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to predict ischemic stroke (IS). However, further validation of PRS performance is required in independent populations, particularly older adults in whom the majority of strokes occur. Methods: We predicted risk of incident IS events in a population of 12 792 healthy older individuals enrolled in the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly). The PRS was calculated using 3.6 million genetic variants. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. The primary outcome was IS over 5 years, with stroke subtypes as secondary outcomes. A multivariable model including conventional risk factors was applied and reevaluated after adding PRS. Area under the curve and net reclassification were evaluated. Results: At baseline, mean population age was 75 years. In total, 173 incident IS events occurred over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. When PRS was added to the multivariable model as a continuous variable, it was independently associated with IS (hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.20­1.65] per SD of the PRS; P<0.001). The PRS alone was a better discriminator for IS events than most conventional risk factors. PRS as a categorical variable was a significant predictor in the highest tertile (hazard ratio, 1.74; P=0.004) compared with the lowest. The area under the curve of the conventional model was 66.6% (95% CI, 62.2­71.1) and after inclusion of the PRS, improved to 68.5 ([95% CI, 64.0­73.0] P=0.095). In subgroup analysis, the continuous PRS remained an independent predictor for large vessel and cardioembolic stroke subtypes but not for small vessel stroke. Reclassification was improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.17­0.43). Conclusions: PRS predicts incident IS in a healthy older population but only moderately improves prediction over conventional risk factors. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583.

Rare Germline Pathogenic Variants Identified by Multigene Panel Testing and the Risk of Aggressive Prostate Cancer.

While gene panel sequencing is becoming widely used for cancer risk prediction, its clinical utility with respect to predicting aggressive prostate cancer (PrCa) is limited by our current understanding of the genetic risk factors associated with predisposition to this potentially lethal disease phenotype. This study included 837 men diagnosed with aggressive PrCa and 7261 controls (unaffected men and men who did not meet criteria for aggressive PrCa). Rare germline pathogenic variants (including likely pathogenic variants) were identified by targeted sequencing of 26 known or putative cancer predisposition genes. We found that 85 (10%) men with aggressive PrCa and 265 (4%) controls carried a pathogenic variant (p < 0.0001). Aggressive PrCa odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. Increased risk of aggressive PrCa (OR (95% confidence interval)) was identified for pathogenic variants in BRCA2 (5.8 (2.7-12.4)), BRCA1 (5.5 (1.8-16.6)), and ATM (3.8 (1.6-9.1)). Our study provides further evidence that rare germline pathogenic variants in these genes are associated with increased risk of this aggressive, clinically relevant subset of PrCa. These rare genetic variants could be incorporated into risk prediction models to improve their precision to identify men at highest risk of aggressive prostate cancer and be used to identify men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer who require urgent treatment.

Genomic Risk Score for Melanoma in a Prospective Study of Older Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Recent genome-wide association meta-analysis for melanoma doubled the number of previously identified variants. We assessed the performance of an updated polygenic risk score (PRS) in a population of older individuals, where melanoma incidence and cumulative ultraviolet radiation exposure is greatest. METHODS: We assessed a PRS for cutaneous melanoma comprising 55 variants in a prospective study of 12 712 individuals in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly Trial. We evaluated incident melanomas diagnosed during the trial and prevalent melanomas diagnosed preenrolment (self-reported). Multivariable models examined associations between PRS as a continuous variable (per SD) and categorical (low-risk [0%-20%], medium-risk [21%-80%], high-risk [81%-100%] groups) with incident melanoma. Logistic regression examined the association between PRS and prevalent melanoma. RESULTS: At baseline, mean participant age was 75 years; 55.0% were female, and 528 (4.2%) had prevalent melanomas. During follow-up (median = 4.7 years), 120 (1.0%) incident cutaneous melanomas occurred, 98 of which were in participants with no history. PRS was associated with incident melanoma (hazard ratio = 1.46 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 to 1.77) and prevalent melanoma (odds ratio [OR] = 1.55 per SD, 95% CI = 1.42 to 1.69). Participants in the highest-risk PRS group had increased risk compared with the low-risk group for incident melanoma (OR = 2.51, 95% CI = 1.28 to 4.92) and prevalent melanoma (OR = 3.66, 95% CI = 2.69 to 5.05). When stratifying by sex, only males had an association between the PRS and incident melanoma, whereas both sexes had an association between the PRS and prevalent melanoma. CONCLUSIONS: A genomic risk score is associated with melanoma risk in older individuals and may contribute to targeted surveillance.