Thermal, water, and land cover factors led to contrasting urban and rural vegetation resilience to extreme hot months.

With continuing global warming and urbanization, it is increasingly important to understand the resilience of urban vegetation to extreme high temperatures, but few studies have examined urban vegetation at large scale or both concurrent and delayed responses. In this study, we performed an urban-rural comparison using the Enhanced Vegetation Index and months that exceed the historical 90th percentile in mean temperature (referred to as "hot months") across 85 major cities in the contiguous United States. We found that hot months initially enhanced vegetation greenness but could cause a decline afterwards, especially for persistent (≥4 months) and intense (≥+2 °C) episodes in summer. The urban responses were more positive than rural in the western United States or in winter, but more negative during spring-autumn in the eastern United States. The east-west difference can be attributed to the higher optimal growth temperatures and lower water stress levels of the western urban vegetation than the rural. The urban responses also had smaller magnitudes than the rural responses, especially in deciduous forest biomes, and least in evergreen forest biomes. Within each biome, analysis at 1 km pixel level showed that impervious fraction and vegetation cover, local urban heat island intensity, and water stress were the key drivers of urban-rural differences. These findings advance our understanding of how prolonged exposure to warm extremes, particularly within urban environments, affects vegetation greenness and vitality. Urban planners and ecosystem managers should prioritize the long and intense events and the key drivers in fostering urban vegetation resilience to heat waves.

Embracing fine-root system complexity in terrestrial ecosystem modeling.

Projecting the dynamics and functioning of the biosphere requires a holistic consideration of whole-ecosystem processes. However, biases toward leaf, canopy, and soil modeling since the 1970s have constantly left fine-root systems being rudimentarily treated. As accelerated empirical advances in the last two decades establish clearly functional differentiation conferred by the hierarchical structure of fine-root orders and associations with mycorrhizal fungi, a need emerges to embrace this complexity to bridge the data-model gap in still extremely uncertain models. Here, we propose a three-pool structure comprising transport and absorptive fine roots with mycorrhizal fungi (TAM) to model vertically resolved fine-root systems across organizational and spatial-temporal scales. Emerging from a conceptual shift away from arbitrary homogenization, TAM builds upon theoretical and empirical foundations as an effective and efficient approximation that balances realism and simplicity. A proof-of-concept demonstration of TAM in a big-leaf model both conservatively and radically shows robust impacts of differentiation within fine-root systems on simulating carbon cycling in temperate forests. Theoretical and quantitative support warrants exploiting its rich potentials across ecosystems and models to confront uncertainties and challenges for a predictive understanding of the biosphere. Echoing a broad trend of embracing ecological complexity in integrative ecosystem modeling, TAM may offer a consistent framework where modelers and empiricists can work together toward this grand goal.

Across-model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change.

Large across-model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across-model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix-based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter-model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter-model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across-model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables.

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity.

Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N-65°N, during 1971-2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0-10 cm SSI during August-November, and 0-100 cm during September-April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI's signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0-10 cm than 0-100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

Anthropogenically driven climate and landscape change effects on inland water carbon dynamics: What have we learned and where are we going?

Inland waters serve as important hydrological connections between the terrestrial landscape and oceans but are often overlooked in global carbon (C) budgets and Earth System Models. Terrestrially derived C entering inland waters from the watershed can be transported to oceans but over 83% is either buried in sediments or emitted to the atmosphere before reaching oceans. Anthropogenic pressures such as climate and landscape changes are altering the magnitude of these C fluxes in inland waters. Here, we synthesize the most recent estimates of C fluxes and the differential contributions across inland waterbody types (rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, and ponds), including recent measurements that incorporate improved sampling methods, small waterbodies, and dried areas. Across all inland waters, we report a global C emission estimate of 4.40 Pg C/year (95% confidence interval: 3.95-4.85 Pg C/year), representing a 13% increase from the most recent estimate. We also review the mechanisms by which the most globally widespread anthropogenically driven climate and landscape changes influence inland water C fluxes. The majority of these drivers are expected to influence terrestrial C inputs to inland waters due to alterations in terrestrial C quality and quantity, hydrological pathways, and biogeochemical processing. We recommend four research priorities for the future study of anthropogenic alterations to inland water C fluxes: (1) before-and-after measurements of C fluxes associated with climate change events and landscape changes, (2) better quantification of C input from land, (3) improved assessment of spatial coverage and contributions of small inland waterbodies to C fluxes, and (4) integration of dried and drawdown areas to global C flux estimates. Improved measurements of inland water C fluxes and quantification of uncertainty in these estimates will be vital to understanding both terrestrial C losses and the "moving target" of inland water C emissions in response to rapid and complex anthropogenic pressures.

Validation and implementation of group electronic hand hygiene monitoring across twenty-four critical care units.

OBJECTIVES: An accurate estimate of the average number of hand hygiene opportunities per patient hour (HHO rate) is required to implement group electronic hand hygiene monitoring systems (GEHHMSs). We sought to identify predictors of HHOs to validate and implement a GEHHMS across a network of critical care units. DESIGN: Multicenter, observational study (10 hospitals) followed by quality improvement intervention involving 24 critical care units across 12 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: Critical care patient beds were randomized to receive 1 hour of continuous direct observation to determine the HHO rate. A Poisson regression model determined unit-level predictors of HHOs. Estimates of average HHO rates across different types of critical care units were derived and used to implement and evaluate use of GEHHMS. RESULTS: During 2,812 hours of observation, we identified 25,417 HHOs. There was significant variability in HHO rate across critical care units. Time of day, day of the week, unit acuity, patient acuity, patient population and use of transmission-based precautions were significantly associated with HHO rate. Using unit-specific estimates of average HHO rate, aggregate HH adherence was 30.0% (1,084,329 of 3,614,908) at baseline with GEHHMS and improved to 38.5% (740,660 of 1,921,656) within 2 months of continuous feedback to units (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Unit-specific estimates based on known predictors of HHO rate enabled broad implementation of GEHHMS. Further longitudinal quality improvement efforts using this system are required to assess the impact of GEHHMS on both HH adherence and clinical outcomes within critically ill patient populations.

Impact of COVID-19 on hospital hand hygiene performance: a multicentre observational study using group electronic monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Reliable reports on hand hygiene performance throughout the COVID-19 pandemic are lacking as most hospitals continue to rely on direct observation to measure this quality indicator. Using group electronic hand hygiene monitoring, we sought to assess the impact of COVID-19 on adherence to hand hygiene. METHODS: Across 12 Ontario hospitals (5 university and 7 community teaching hospitals), a group electronic hand hygiene monitoring system was installed before the pandemic to provide continuous measurement of hand hygiene adherence across 978 ward and 367 critical care beds. We performed an interrupted time-series study of institutional hand hygiene adherence in association with a COVID-19 inpatient census and the Ontario daily count of COVID-19 cases during a baseline period (Nov. 1, 2019, to Feb. 29, 2020), the pre-peak period of the first wave of the pandemic (Mar. 1 to Apr. 24, 2020), and the post-peak period of the first wave (Apr. 25 to July 5, 2020). We used a Poisson regression model to assess the association between the hospital COVID-19 census and institutional hand hygiene adherence while adjusting for the correlation within inpatient units. RESULTS: At baseline, the rate of hand hygiene adherence was 46.0% (6 325 401 of 13 750 968 opportunities) and this improved beginning in March 2020 to a daily peak of 79.3% (66 640 of 84 026 opportunities) on Mar. 30, 2020. Each patient admitted with COVID-19 was associated with improved hand hygiene adherence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.0621, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0619-1.0623). Increasing Ontario daily case count was similarly associated with improved hand hygiene (IRR 1.0026, 95% CI 1.0021-1.0032). After peak COVID-19 community and inpatient numbers, hand hygiene adherence declined and returned to baseline. INTERPRETATION: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with significant improvement in hand hygiene adherence, measured using a group electronic monitoring system. Future research should seek to determine whether strategies that focus on health care worker perception of personal risk can achieve sustainable improvements in hand hygiene performance.

Seasonal changes in GPP/SIF ratios and their climatic determinants across the Northern Hemisphere.

Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been increasingly used for estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, the relationship between SIF and GPP has not been well defined, impeding the translation of satellite observed SIF to GPP. Previous studies have generally assumed a linear relationship between SIF and GPP at daily and longer time scales, but support for this assumption is lacking. Here, we used the GPP/SIF ratio to investigate seasonal variations in the relationship between SIF and GPP over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Based on multiple SIF products and MODIS and FLUXCOM GPP data, we found strong seasonal hump-shaped patterns for the GPP/SIF ratio over northern latitudes, with higher values in the summer than in the spring or autumn. This hump-shaped GPP/SIF seasonal variation was confirmed by examining different SIF products and was evident for most vegetation types except evergreen broadleaf forests. The seasonal amplitude of the GPP/SIF ratio decreased from the boreal/arctic region to drylands and the tropics. For most of the NH, the lowest GPP/SIF values occurred in October or September, while the maximum GPP/SIF values were evident in June and July. The most pronounced seasonal amplitude of GPP/SIF occurred in intermediate temperature and precipitation ranges. GPP/SIF was positively related to temperature in the early and late parts of the growing season, but not during the peak growing months. These shifting relationships between temperature and GPP/SIF across different months appeared to play a key role in the seasonal dynamics of GPP/SIF. Several mechanisms may explain the patterns we observed, and future research encompassing a broad range of climate and vegetation settings is needed to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between SIF and GPP. Nonetheless, the strong seasonal variation in GPP/SIF we identified highlights the importance of incorporating this behavior into SIF-based GPP estimations.

Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in an ombrotrophic peatland: a benchmark for assessing change.

Aims: Slow decomposition and isolation from groundwater mean that ombrotrophic peatlands store a large amount of soil carbon (C) but have low availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). To better understand the role these limiting nutrients play in determining the C balance of peatland ecosystems, we compile comprehensive N and P budgets for a forested bog in northern Minnesota, USA. Methods: N and P within plants, soils, and water are quantified based on field measurements. The resulting empirical dataset are then compared to modern-day, site-level simulations from the peatland land surface version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM-SPRUCE). Results: Our results reveal N is accumulating in the ecosystem at 0.2 ± 0.1 g N m-2 year-1 but annual P inputs to this ecosystem are balanced by losses. Biomass stoichiometry indicates that plant functional types differ in N versus P limitation, with trees exhibiting a stronger N limitation than ericaceous shrubs or Sphagnum moss. High biomass and productivity of Sphagnum results in the moss layer storing and cycling a large proportion of plant N and P. Comparing our empirically-derived nutrient budgets to ELM-SPRUCE shows the model captures N cycling within dominant plant functional types well. Conclusions: The nutrient budgets and stoichiometry presented serve as a baseline for quantifying the nutrient cycling response of peatland ecosystems to both observed and simulated climate change. Our analysis improves our understanding of N and P dynamics within nutrient-limited peatlands and represents a crucial step toward improving C-cycle projections into the twenty-first century.

Multi-hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models reveals the unexpected influence of empirical assumptions at leaf and global scales.

Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation (A). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Two predominant photosynthesis models are in common usage: Farquhar (FvCB) and Collatz (CBGB). However, a detailed quantitative comparison of these two models has never been undertaken. In this study, we unify the FvCB and CBGB models to a common parameter set and use novel multi-hypothesis methods (that account for both hypothesis and parameter variability) for process-level sensitivity analysis. These models represent three key biological processes: carboxylation, electron transport, triose phosphate use (TPU) and an additional model process: limiting-rate selection. Each of the four processes comprises 1-3 alternative hypotheses giving 12 possible individual models with a total of 14 parameters. To broaden inference, TBM simulations were run and novel, high-resolution photosynthesis measurements were made. We show that parameters associated with carboxylation are the most influential parameters but also reveal the surprising and marked dominance of the limiting-rate selection process (accounting for 57% of the variation in A vs. 22% for carboxylation). The limiting-rate selection assumption proposed by CBGB smooths the transition between limiting rates and always reduces A below the minimum of all potentially limiting rates, by up to 25%, effectively imposing a fourth limitation on A. Evaluation of the CBGB smoothing function in three TBMs demonstrated a reduction in global A by 4%-10%, equivalent to 50%-160% of current annual fossil fuel emissions. This analysis reveals a surprising and previously unquantified influence of a process that has been integral to many TBMs for decades, highlighting the value of multi-hypothesis methods.

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations.

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

Introduction of Group Electronic Monitoring of Hand Hygiene on Inpatient Units: A Multicenter Cluster Randomized Quality Improvement Study.

BACKGROUND: The current approach to measuring hand hygiene (HH) relies on human auditors who capture <1% of HH opportunities and rapidly become recognized by staff, resulting in inflation in performance. Group electronic monitoring is a validated method of measuring HH adherence, but data demonstrating the clinical impact of this technology are lacking. METHODS: A stepped-wedge cluster randomized quality improvement study was performed on 26 inpatient medical and surgical units across 5 acute care hospitals in Ontario, Canada. The intervention involved daily HH reporting as measured by group electronic monitoring to guide unit-led improvement strategies. The primary outcome was monthly HH adherence (percentage) between baseline and intervention. Secondary outcomes included transmission of antibiotic-resistant organisms such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and other healthcare-associated infections. RESULTS: After adjusting for the correlation within inpatient units and hospitals, there was a significant overall improvement in HH adherence associated with the intervention (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.73 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.47-1.99]; P < .0001). Monthly HH adherence relative to the intervention increased from 29% (1 395 450/4 544 144) to 37% (598 035/1 536 643) within 1 month, followed by consecutive incremental increases up to 53% (804 108/1 515 537) by 10 months (P < .0001). There was a trend toward reduced healthcare-associated transmission of MRSA (IRR, 0.74 [95% CI, .53-1.04]; P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of a system for group electronic monitoring led to rapid, significant improvements in HH performance within a 2-year period. This method offers significant advantages over direct observation for measurement and improvement of HH.

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States.

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001-2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban-rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations.

Plants use only a fraction of their photosynthetically derived carbon for biomass production (BP). The biomass production efficiency (BPE), defined as the ratio of BP to photosynthesis, and its variation across and within vegetation types is poorly understood, which hinders our capacity to accurately estimate carbon turnover times and carbon sinks. Here, we present a new global estimation of BPE obtained by combining field measurements from 113 sites with 14 carbon cycle models. Our best estimate of global BPE is 0.41 ± 0.05, excluding cropland. The largest BPE is found in boreal forests (0.48 ± 0.06) and the lowest in tropical forests (0.40 ± 0.04). Carbon cycle models overestimate BPE, although models with carbon-nitrogen interactions tend to be more realistic. Using observation-based estimates of global photosynthesis, we quantify the global BP of non-cropland ecosystems of 41 ± 6 Pg C/year. This flux is less than net primary production as it does not contain carbon allocated to symbionts, used for exudates or volatile carbon compound emissions to the atmosphere. Our study reveals a positive bias of 24 ± 11% in the model-estimated BP (10 of 14 models). When correcting models for this bias while leaving modeled carbon turnover times unchanged, we found that the global ecosystem carbon storage change during the last century is decreased by 67% (or 58 Pg C).

Cryptic phenology in plants: Case studies, implications, and recommendations.

Plant phenology-the timing of cyclic or recurrent biological events in plants-offers insight into the ecology, evolution, and seasonality of plant-mediated ecosystem processes. Traditionally studied phenologies are readily apparent, such as flowering events, germination timing, and season-initiating budbreak. However, a broad range of phenologies that are fundamental to the ecology and evolution of plants, and to global biogeochemical cycles and climate change predictions, have been neglected because they are "cryptic"-that is, hidden from view (e.g., root production) or difficult to distinguish and interpret based on common measurements at typical scales of examination (e.g., leaf turnover in evergreen forests). We illustrate how capturing cryptic phenology can advance scientific understanding with two case studies: wood phenology in a deciduous forest of the northeastern USA and leaf phenology in tropical evergreen forests of Amazonia. Drawing on these case studies and other literature, we argue that conceptualizing and characterizing cryptic plant phenology is needed for understanding and accurate prediction at many scales from organisms to ecosystems. We recommend avenues of empirical and modeling research to accelerate discovery of cryptic phenological patterns, to understand their causes and consequences, and to represent these processes in terrestrial biosphere models.

Simulated projections of boreal forest peatland ecosystem productivity are sensitive to observed seasonality in leaf physiology†.

We quantified seasonal CO2 assimilation capacities for seven dominant vascular species in a wet boreal forest peatland then applied data to a land surface model parametrized to the site (ELM-SPRUCE) to test if seasonality in photosynthetic parameters results in differences in simulated plant responses to elevated CO2 and temperature. We collected seasonal leaf-level gas exchange, nutrient content and stand allometric data from the field-layer community (i.e., Maianthemum trifolium (L.) Sloboda), understory shrubs (Rhododendron groenlandicum (Oeder) Kron and Judd, Chamaedaphne calyculata (L.) Moench., Kalmia polifolia Wangenh. and Vaccinium angustifolium Alton.) and overstory trees (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. and Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch). We found significant interspecific seasonal differences in specific leaf area, nitrogen content (by area; Na) and photosynthetic parameters (i.e., maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax25°C), electron transport (Jmax25°C) and dark respiration (Rd25°C)), but minimal correlation between foliar Na and Vcmax25°C, Jmax25°C or Rd25°C, which illustrates that nitrogen alone is not a good correlate for physiological processes such as Rubisco activity that can change seasonally in this system. ELM-SPRUCE was sensitive to the introduction of observed interspecific seasonality in Vcmax25°C, Jmax25°C and Rd25°C, leading to simulated enhancement of net primary production (NPP) using seasonally dynamic parameters as compared with use of static parameters. This pattern was particularly pronounced under simulations with higher temperature and elevated CO2, suggesting a key hypothesis to address with future empirical or observational studies as climate changes. Inclusion of species-specific seasonal photosynthetic parameters should improve estimates of boreal ecosystem-level NPP, especially if impacts of seasonal physiological ontogeny can be separated from seasonal thermal acclimation.

Hand hygiene opportunities on Canadian acute-care inpatient units: A multicenter observational study.

In this multicenter observational study, medical and surgical inpatient rooms were randomized to receive 1 hour of continuous direct observation to determine hand hygiene opportunities (HHOs). After multivariable adjustment, HHOs were similar across inpatient units and hospitals. This estimate could serve to calibrate electronic hand hygiene monitoring systems for Canadian medical and surgical units.

Uncertainty Quantification of Extratropical Forest Biomass in CMIP5 Models over the Northern Hemisphere.

Simplified representations of processes influencing forest biomass in Earth system models (ESMs) contribute to large uncertainty in projections. We evaluate forest biomass from eight ESMs outputs archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the biomass data synthesized from radar remote sensing and ground-based observations across northern extratropical latitudes. ESMs exhibit large biases in the forest distribution, forest fraction, and mass of carbon pools that contribute to uncertainty in forest total biomass (biases range from -20 Pg C to 135 Pg C). Forest total biomass is primarily positively correlated with precipitation variations, with surface temperature becoming equally important at higher latitudes, in both simulations and observations. Relatively small differences in forest biomass between the pre-industrial period and the contemporary period indicate uncertainties in forest biomass were introduced in the pre-industrial model equilibration (spin-up), suggesting parametric or structural model differences are a larger source of uncertainty than differences in transient responses. Our findings emphasize the importance of improved (1) models of carbon allocation to biomass compartments, (2) distribution of vegetation types in models, and (3) reproduction of pre-industrial vegetation conditions, in order to reduce the uncertainty in forest biomass simulated by ESMs.

Rectal and Naris Swabs: Practical and Informative Samples for Analyzing the Microbiota of Critically Ill Patients.

Commensal microbiota are immunomodulatory, and their pathological perturbation can affect the risk and outcomes of infectious and inflammatory diseases. Consequently, the human microbiota is an emerging diagnostic and therapeutic target in critical illness. In this study, we compared four sample types-rectal, naris, and antecubital swabs and stool samples-for 16S rRNA gene microbiota sequencing in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Stool samples were obtained in only 31% of daily attempts, while swabs were reliably obtained (≥97% of attempts). Swabs were compositionally distinct by anatomical site, and rectal swabs identified within-patient temporal trends in microbiota composition. Rectal swabs from ICU patients demonstrated differences from healthy stool similar to those observed in comparing stool samples from ICU patients to those from the same healthy controls. Rectal swabs are a useful complement to other sample types for analysis of the intestinal microbiota in critical illness, particularly when obtaining stool may not be feasible or practical.IMPORTANCE Perturbation of the microbiome has been correlated with various infectious and inflammatory diseases and is common in critically ill patients. Stool is typically used to sample the microbiota in human observational studies; however, it is often unavailable for collection from critically ill patients, reducing its utility as a sample type to study this population. Our research identified alternatives to stool for sampling the microbiota during critical illness. Rectal and naris swabs were practical alternatives for use in these patients, as they were observed to be more reliably obtained than stool, were suitable for culture-independent analysis, and successfully captured within- and between-patient microbiota differences.

Erratum for Bansal et al., "Rectal and Naris Swabs: Practical and Informative Samples for Analyzing the Microbiota of Critically Ill Patients".

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1128/mSphere.00219-18.].