Validation and Optimization of Barrow Neurological Institute Score in Prediction of Adverse Events and Functional Outcome After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage-Creation of the HATCH (Hemorrhage, Age, Treatment, Clinical State, Hydrocephalus) Score.

BACKGROUND: The Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) score, measuring maximal thickness of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), has previously shown to predict symptomatic cerebral vasospasms (CVSs), delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI), and functional outcome. OBJECTIVE: To validate the BNI score for prediction of above-mentioned variables and cerebral infarct and evaluate its improvement by integrating further variables which are available within the first 24 h after hemorrhage. METHODS: We included patients from a single center. The BNI score for prediction of CVS, DCI, infarct, and functional outcome was validated in our cohort using measurements of calibration and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). We improved it by adding additional variables, creating a novel risk score (measure by the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Scale) and validated it in a small independent cohort. RESULTS: Of 646 patients, 41.5% developed symptomatic CVS, 22.9% DCI, 23.5% cerebral infarct, and 29% had an unfavorable outcome. The BNI score was associated with all outcome measurements. We improved functional outcome prediction accuracy by including age, BNI score, World Federation of Neurologic Surgeons, rebleeding, clipping, and hydrocephalus (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.8-0.87). Based on this model we created a risk score (HATCH-Hemorrhage, Age, Treatment, Clinical State, Hydrocephalus), ranging 0 to 13 points. We validated it in a small independent cohort. The validated score demonstrated very good discriminative ability (AUC 0.84 [95% CI 0.72-0.96]). CONCLUSION: We developed the HATCH score, which is a moderate predictor of DCI, but excellent predictor of functional outcome at 1 yr after aSAH.

Post-operative cardiovascular complications and time to recurrence in meningioma patients treated with versus without pre-operative embolization: a retrospective cohort study of 741 patients.

PURPOSE: Preoperative embolization of radiographically suspected meningiomas is often performed to facilitate tumor resection. Its effects on the subsequent disease course of meningioma patients have not been studied in detail and randomized trials are lacking. The purpose of this study was to explore associations of preoperative meningioma embolization with postoperative outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients undergoing resection of an intracranial meningioma at the University Hospital Zurich 2000-2013 (N = 741) were reviewed for the inclusion of pre-operative embolization in the management strategy. Annotations included demographics, radiographic, surgical, histological and hematological parameters, cardiovascular risk factors, pre- and postoperative neurological function and gene methylation-based classification. Binary regression and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to determine factors associated with outcome. RESULTS: Pre-operative embolization was performed in 337 patients (42%). Cardiovascular events after surgery comprised mostly deep vein thrombosis (N = 39) and pulmonary embolisms (N = 64). On multivariate analyses of post-operative cardiovascular adverse events controlling for established risk factors, there were associations with embolization (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.37-4.00), and with female gender (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.17-4.08). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) of embolized patients was less favorable among patients with WHO grade II or grade III meningiomas (median RFS: 4.3 vs. 7.0 years, P = 0.029) or in patients with intermediate or malignant gene methylation subtype meningiomas (median RFS: 2.0 vs. 8.2 years, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Pre-operative meningioma embolization may cause adverse outcomes. Randomized trials to determine benefit-risk ratios are warranted to clarify the role of pre-operative embolization for the treatment of meningioma patients.

Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).METHODSThe database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7.RESULTSThe overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of < 5%. Prediction accuracy for survival on day 1 was 75.2%. The most important differentiating factor was the interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on day 1. Favorable functional outcome, defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5, was observed in 68.6% of patients. Favorable functional outcome at all time points had a prediction accuracy of 71.1% in the training data set, with procalcitonin on day 1 being the most important differentiating factor at all time points. A total of 148 patients (27%) developed VP shunt dependency. The most important differentiating factor was hyperglycemia on admission.CONCLUSIONSThe multiple variable analysis capability of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.