Lack of evidence for predictive utility from resting state fMRI data for individual exposure-based cognitive behavioral therapy outcomes: A machine learning study in two large multi-site samples in anxiety disorders.

Data-based predictions of individual Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) treatment response are a fundamental step towards precision medicine. Past studies demonstrated only moderate prediction accuracy (i.e. ability to discriminate between responders and non-responders of a given treatment) when using clinical routine data such as demographic and questionnaire data, while neuroimaging data achieved superior prediction accuracy. However, these studies may be considerably biased due to very limited sample sizes and bias-prone methodology. Adequately powered and cross-validated samples are a prerequisite to evaluate predictive performance and to identify the most promising predictors. We therefore analyzed resting state functional magnet resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data from two large clinical trials to test whether functional neuroimaging data continues to provide good prediction accuracy in much larger samples. Data came from two distinct German multicenter studies on exposure-based CBT for anxiety disorders, the Protect-AD and SpiderVR studies. We separately and independently preprocessed baseline rs-fMRI data from n = 220 patients (Protect-AD) and n = 190 patients (SpiderVR) and extracted a variety of features, including ROI-to-ROI and edge-functional connectivity, sliding-windows, and graph measures. Including these features in sophisticated machine learning pipelines, we found that predictions of individual outcomes never significantly differed from chance level, even when conducting a range of exploratory post-hoc analyses. Moreover, resting state data never provided prediction accuracy beyond the sociodemographic and clinical data. The analyses were independent of each other in terms of selecting methods to process resting state data for prediction input as well as in the used parameters of the machine learning pipelines, corroborating the external validity of the results. These similar findings in two independent studies, analyzed separately, urge caution regarding the interpretation of promising prediction results based on neuroimaging data from small samples and emphasizes that some of the prediction accuracies from previous studies may result from overestimation due to homogeneous data and weak cross-validation schemes. The promise of resting-state neuroimaging data to play an important role in the prediction of CBT treatment outcomes in patients with anxiety disorders remains yet to be delivered.

Sometimes I feel the fear of uncertainty: How intolerance of uncertainty and trait anxiety impact fear acquisition, extinction and the return of fear.

It is hypothesized that the ability to discriminate between threat and safety is impaired in individuals with high dispositional negativity, resulting in maladaptive behavior. A large body of research investigated differential learning during fear conditioning and extinction protocols depending on individual differences in intolerance of uncertainty (IU) and trait anxiety (TA), two closely-related dimensions of dispositional negativity, with heterogenous results. These might be due to varying degrees of induced threat/safety uncertainty. Here, we compared two groups with high vs. low IU/TA during periods of low (instructed fear acquisition) and high levels of uncertainty (delayed non-instructed extinction training and reinstatement). Dependent variables comprised subjective (US expectancy, valence, arousal), psychophysiological (skin conductance response, SCR, and startle blink), and neural (fMRI BOLD) measures of threat responding. During fear acquisition, we found strong threat/safety discrimination for both groups. During early extinction (high uncertainty), the low IU/TA group showed an increased physiological response to the safety signal, resulting in a lack of CS discrimination. In contrast, the high IU/TA group showed strong initial threat/safety discrimination in physiology, lacking discriminative learning on startle, and reduced neural activation in regions linked to threat/safety processing throughout extinction training indicating sustained but non-adaptive and rigid responding. Similar neural patterns were found after the reinstatement test. Taken together, we provide evidence that high dispositional negativity, as indicated here by IU and TA, is associated with greater responding to threat cues during the beginning of delayed extinction, and, thus, demonstrates altered learning patterns under changing environments.

Neural adaptation of cingulate and insular activity during delayed fear extinction: A replicable pattern across assessment sites and repeated measurements.

Adapting threat-related memories towards changing environments is a fundamental ability of organisms. One central process of fear reduction is suggested to be extinction learning, experimentally modeled by extinction training that is repeated exposure to a previously conditioned stimulus (CS) without providing the expected negative consequence (unconditioned stimulus, US). Although extinction training is well investigated, evidence regarding process-related changes in neural activation over time is still missing. Using optimized delayed extinction training in a multicentric trial we tested whether: 1) extinction training elicited decreasing CS-specific neural activation and subjective ratings, 2) extinguished conditioned fear would return after presentation of the US (reinstatement), and 3) results are comparable across different assessment sites and repeated measures. We included 100 healthy subjects (measured twice, 13-week-interval) from six sites. 24 h after fear acquisition training, extinction training, including a reinstatement test, was applied during fMRI. Alongside, participants had to rate subjective US-expectancy, arousal and valence. In the course of the extinction training, we found decreasing neural activation in the insula and cingulate cortex as well as decreasing US-expectancy, arousal and negative valence towards CS+. Re-exposure to the US after extinction training was associated with a temporary increase in neural activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (exploratory analysis) and changes in US-expectancy and arousal ratings. While ICCs-values were low, findings from small groups suggest highly consistent effects across time-points and sites. Therefore, this delayed extinction fMRI-paradigm provides a solid basis for the investigation of differences in neural fear-related mechanisms as a function of anxiety-pathology and exposure-based treatment.

Neural correlates of NOS1 ex1f-VNTR allelic variation in panic disorder and agoraphobia during fear conditioning and extinction in fMRI.

Neuronal nitric oxide synthase (NOS-I) impacts on fear/anxiety-like behavior in animals. In humans, the short (S) allele of a functional promotor polymorphism of NOS1 (NOS1 ex1f-VNTR) has been shown to be associated with higher anxiety and altered fear conditioning in healthy subjects in the amygdala and hippocampus (AMY/HIPP). Here, we explore the role of NOS1 ex1f-VNTR as a pathophysiological correlate of panic disorder and agoraphobia (PD/AG). In a sub-sample of a multicenter cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) randomized controlled trial in patients with PD/AG (n = 48: S/S-genotype n=15, S/L-genotype n=21, L/L-genotype n=12) and healthy control subjects, HS (n = 34: S/S-genotype n=7, S/L-genotype n=17, L/L-genotype=10), a differential fear conditioning and extinction fMRI-paradigm was used to investigate how NOS1 ex1f-VNTR genotypes are associated with differential neural activation in AMY/HIPP. Prior to CBT, L/L-allele carriers showed higher activation than S/S-allele carriers in AMY/HIPP. A genotype × diagnosis interaction revealed that the S-allele in HS was associated with a pronounced deactivation in AMY/HIPP, while patients showed contrary effects. The interaction of genotype × stimulus type (CS+, conditioned stimulus associated with an aversive stimulus vs. CS-, unassociated) showed effects on differential learning in AMY/HIPP. All effects were predominately found during extinction. Genotype associated effects in patients were not altered after CBT. Low statistical power due to small sample size in each subgroup is a major limitation. However, our findings provide first preliminary evidence for dysfunctional neural fear conditioning/extinction associated with NOS1 ex1f-VNTR genotype in the context of PD/AG, shedding new light on the complex interaction between genetic risk, current psychopathology and treatment-related effects.

Facilitating translational science in anxiety disorders by adjusting extinction training in the laboratory to exposure-based therapy procedures.

Extinction learning is suggested to be a central mechanism during exposure-based cognitive behavioral psychotherapy. A positive association between the patients' pretreatment extinction learning performance and treatment outcome would corroborate the hypothesis. Indeed, there is first correlational evidence between reduced extinction learning and therapy efficacy. However, the results of these association studies may be hampered by extinction-training protocols that do not match treatment procedures. Therefore, we developed an extinction-training protocol highly tailored to the procedure of exposure therapy and tested it in two samples of 46 subjects in total. By using instructed fear acquisition training, including a consolidation period overnight, we wanted to ensure that the conditioned fear response was well established prior to extinction training, which is the case in patients with anxiety disorders prior to treatment. Moreover, the extinction learning process was analyzed on multiple response levels, comprising unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy ratings, autonomic responses, defensive brain stem reflexes, and neural activation using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Using this protocol, we found robust fear conditioning and slow-speed extinction learning. We also observed within-group heterogeneity in extinction learning, albeit a stable fear response at the beginning of the extinction training. Finally, we found discordance between different response systems, suggesting that multiple processes are involved in extinction learning. The paradigm presented here might help to ameliorate the association between extinction learning performance assessed in the laboratory and therapy outcomes and thus facilitate translational science in anxiety disorders.

Association of rs7688285 allelic variation coding for GLRB with fear reactivity and exposure-based therapy in patients with panic disorder and agoraphobia.

The gene coding for glycine receptor ß subunits (GLRB) has been found to be related to panic disorder and agoraphobia (PD/AG) and to be associated with altered insular BOLD activation during fear conditioning, as an intermediate phenotype of defensive system reactivity in healthy subjects. In a multicenter clinical trial on PD/AG patients we investigated in three sub-samples whether GLRB allelic variation (A/G; A-allele identified as «risk¼) in the single nucleotide polymorphism rs7688285 was associated with autonomic (behavioral avoidance test BAT; n = 267 patients) and neural (differential fear conditioning; n = 49 patients, n = 38 controls) measures, and furthermore with responding towards exposure-based cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT, n = 184 patients). An interaction of genotype with current PD/AG diagnosis (PD/AG vs. controls; fMRI data only) and their modification after CBT was tested as well. Exploratory fMRI results prior to CBT, revealed A-allele carriers irrespective of diagnostic status to show overall higher BOLD activation in the hippocampus, motor cortex (MC) and insula. Differential activation in the MC, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and insula was found in the interaction genotype X diagnosis. Differential activation in ACC and hippocampus was present in differential fear learning. ACC activation was modified after treatment, while no overall rs7688285 dependent effect on clinical outcomes was found. On the behavioral level, A-allele carriers showed pronounced fear reactivity prior to CBT which partially normalized afterwards. In sum, rs7688285 variation interacts in a complex manner with PD/AG on a functional systems level and might be involved in the development of PD/AG but not in their treatment.