Detection of acute dengue virus infection, with and without concurrent malaria infection, in a cohort of febrile children in Kenya, 2014-2019, by clinicians or machine learning algorithms.

Poor access to diagnostic testing in resource limited settings restricts surveillance for emerging infections, such as dengue virus (DENV), to clinician suspicion, based on history and exam observations alone. We investigated the ability of machine learning to detect DENV based solely on data available at the clinic visit. We extracted symptom and physical exam data from 6,208 pediatric febrile illness visits to Kenyan public health clinics from 2014-2019 and created a dataset with 113 clinical features. Malaria testing was available at the clinic site. DENV testing was performed afterwards. We randomly sampled 70% of the dataset to develop DENV and malaria prediction models using boosted logistic regression, decision trees and random forests, support vector machines, naïve Bayes, and neural networks with 10-fold cross validation, tuned to maximize accuracy. 30% of the dataset was reserved to validate the models. 485 subjects (7.8%) had DENV, and 3,145 subjects (50.7%) had malaria. 220 (3.5%) subjects had co-infection with both DENV and malaria. In the validation dataset, clinician accuracy for diagnosis of malaria was high (82% accuracy, 85% sensitivity, 80% specificity). Accuracy of the models for predicting malaria diagnosis ranged from 53-69% (35-94% sensitivity, 11-80% specificity). In contrast, clinicians detected only 21 of 145 cases of DENV (80% accuracy, 14% sensitivity, 85% specificity). Of the six models, only logistic regression identified any DENV case (8 cases, 91% accuracy, 5.5% sensitivity, 98% specificity). Without diagnostic testing, interpretation of clinical findings by humans or machines cannot detect DENV at 8% prevalence. Access to point-of-care diagnostic tests must be prioritized to address global inequities in emerging infections surveillance.

Malaria smear positivity among Kenyan children peaks at intermediate temperatures as predicted by ecological models.

BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission and suitability, affecting the life-cycle of the Plasmodium parasite and Anopheles vector. Early models predicted a thermal malaria transmission optimum of 31 °C, later revised to 25 °C using experimental data from mosquito and parasite biology. However, the link between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence remains poorly resolved. METHODS: To evaluate the relationship between ambient temperature and malaria risk, 5833 febrile children (<18 years-old) with an acute, non-localizing febrile illness were enrolled from four heterogenous outpatient clinic sites in Kenya (Chulaimbo, Kisumu, Msambweni and Ukunda). Thick and thin blood smears were evaluated for the presence of malaria parasites. Daily temperature estimates were obtained from land logger data, and rainfall from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Africa Rainfall Climatology (ARC) data. Thirty-day mean temperature and 30-day cumulative rainfall were estimated and each lagged by 30 days, relative to the febrile visit. A generalized linear mixed model was used to assess relationships between malaria smear positivity and predictors including temperature, rainfall, age, sex, mosquito exposure and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Malaria smear positivity varied between 42-83% across four clinic sites in western and coastal Kenya, with highest smear positivity in the rural, western site. The temperature ranges were cooler in the western sites and warmer in the coastal sites. In multivariate analysis controlling for socioeconomic status, age, sex, rainfall and bednet use, malaria smear positivity peaked near 25 °C at all four sites, as predicted a priori from an ecological model. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides direct field evidence of a unimodal relationship between ambient temperature and human malaria incidence with a peak in malaria transmission occurring at lower temperatures than previously recognized clinically. This nonlinear relationship with an intermediate optimal temperature implies that future climate warming could expand malaria incidence in cooler, highland regions while decreasing incidence in already warm regions with average temperatures above 25 °C. These findings support efforts to further understand the nonlinear association between ambient temperature and vector-borne diseases to better allocate resources and respond to disease threats in a future, warmer world.

Maternal anemia type during pregnancy is associated with anemia risk among offspring during infancy.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the association between etiology of maternal anemia and iron status throughout infancy. METHODS: Samples from a study designed to examine Praziquantel treatment during pregnancy were used (n = 359). All women were infected with schistosomiasis and randomized to Praziquantel or placebo at 16 ± 2 weeks' gestation. Hemoglobin, serum ferritin (SF), soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), hepcidin, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 were measured in maternal and infant blood. The relationship between both maternal Praziquantel treatment and etiology of anemia and infant iron status was evaluated. RESULTS: Maternal iron-deficiency anemia was associated with increased risk of infant anemia at 6 months of age. Infants of mothers with the lowest levels of circulating hepcidin during gestation, likely a marker for iron deficiency, had higher sTfR:SF levels and lower hemoglobin levels, particularly at 12 months of age. Maternal non-iron-deficiency anemia (NIDA) did not impact infant anemia risk or iron status. Maternal treatment for schistosomiasis had no effect on infant hematologic status. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal iron deficiency anemia was associated with an increased risk for anemia or iron deficiency during late infancy. We did not observe an association between maternal NIDA and increased risk for iron deficiency during infancy.

Anemia of Inflammation during Human Pregnancy Does Not Affect Newborn Iron Endowment.

Background: To our knowledge, no studies have addressed whether maternal anemia of inflammation (AI) affects newborn iron status, and few have addressed risk factors for specific etiologies of maternal anemia. Objectives: The study aims were to evaluate 1) the contribution of AI and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) to newborn iron endowment, 2) hepcidin as a biomarker to distinguish AI from IDA among pregnant women, and 3) risk factors for specific etiologies of maternal anemia. Methods: We measured hematologic biomarkers in maternal blood at 12 and 32 wk of gestation and in cord blood from a randomized trial of praziquantel in 358 pregnant women with Schistosoma japonicum in The Philippines. IDA was defined as anemia with serum ferritin <30 ng/mL and non-IDA (NIDA), largely due to AI, as anemia with ferritin ≥30 ng/mL. We identified cutoffs for biomarkers to distinguish IDA from NIDA by using area under the curve (AUC) analyses and examined the impact of different causes of anemia on newborn iron status (primary outcome) by using multivariate regression modeling. Results: Of the 358 mothers, 38% (n = 136) had IDA and 9% (n = 32) had NIDA at 32 wk of gestation. At 32 wk of gestation, serum hepcidin performed better than soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) in identifying women with NIDA compared with the rest of the cohort (AUCs: 0.75 and 0.70, respectively) and in identifying women with NIDA among women with anemia (0.73 and 0.72, respectively). The cutoff that optimally distinguished women with NIDA from women with IDA in our cohort was 6.1 µg/L. Maternal IDA, but not NIDA, was associated with significantly lower newborn ferritin (114.4 ng/mL compared with 148.4 µg/L; P = 0.042). Conclusions: Hepcidin performed better than sTfR in identifying pregnant women with NIDA, but its cost may limit its use. Maternal IDA, but not NIDA, is associated with decreased newborn iron stores, emphasizing the need to identify this cause and provide iron therapy. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00486863.

Principles, practices and knowledge of clinicians when assessing febrile children: a qualitative study in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians in low resource settings in malaria endemic regions face many challenges in diagnosing and treating febrile illnesses in children. Given the change in WHO guidelines in 2010 that recommend malaria testing prior to treatment, clinicians are now required to expand the differential when malaria testing is negative. Prior studies have indicated that resource availability, need for additional training in differentiating non-malarial illnesses, and lack of understanding within the community of when to seek care play a role in effective diagnosis and treatment. The objective of this study was to examine the various factors that influence clinician behavior in diagnosing and managing children presenting with fever to health centres in Kenya. METHODS: A total of 20 clinicians (2 paediatricians, 1 medical officer, 2 nurses, and 15 clinical officers) were interviewed, working at 5 different government-sponsored public clinic sites in two areas of Kenya where malaria is prevalent. Clinicians were interviewed one-on-one using a structured interview technique. Interviews were then analysed qualitatively for themes. RESULTS: The following five themes were identified: (1) Strong familiarity with diagnosis of malaria and testing for malaria; (2) Clinician concerns about community understanding of febrile illness, use of traditional medicine, delay in seeking care, and compliance; (3) Reliance on clinical guidelines, history, and physical examination to diagnose febrile illness and recognize danger signs; (4) Clinician discomfort with diagnosis of primary viral illness leading to increased use of empiric antibiotics; and (5) Lack of resources including diagnostic testing, necessary medications, and training modalities contributes to the difficulty clinicians face in assessing and treating febrile illness in children. These themes persisted across all sites, despite variation in levels of medical care. Within these themes, clinicians consistently expressed a need for reliable basic testing, especially haemograms and bacterial cultures. Clinicians discussed the use of counseling and education to improve community understanding of febrile illness in order to decrease preventable deaths in children. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that since malarial testing has become more widespread, clinicians working in resource-poor environments still face difficulty when evaluating a child with fever, especially when malaria testing is negative. Improving access to additional diagnostics, continuing medical education, and ongoing evaluation and revision of clinical guidelines may lead to more consistent management of febrile illness by providers, and may potentially decrease prescription of unnecessary antibiotics. Additional interventions at the community level may also have an important role in managing febrile illness, however, more studies are needed to identify targets for intervention at both the clinic and community levels.

Race/Ethnicity in Medical Education: An Analysis of a Question Bank for Step 1 of the United States Medical Licensing Examination.

Phenomenon: There is growing concern over racial/ethnic bias in clinical care, yet how best to reduce bias remains challenging, in part because the sources of bias in medical education are poorly understood. One possible source is the routinized use of race/ethnicity in lectures, assessment, and preparatory materials, including question banks for licensing examinations. Because students worldwide use question banks to prepare for the United States Medical Licensing Examination, we examined how race/ethnicity was used in one of the most commonly recommended question banks. APPROACH: We analyzed the use of race/ethnicity in all 2,211 questions in a question bank for Step 1 of the United States Medical Licensing Examination for the following: the frequency of mentions of racial/ethnic groups, whether the use of race/ethnicity was merely descriptive or was central to any part of the question, and whether the question associated race/ethnicity with genetic difference. FINDINGS: In sum, 455 of the 2,011 (20.6%) of the questions in the question bank referred to race/ethnicity in the question stem, answer, or educational objective. The frequency of mentions of racial/ethnicity was disproportionate to the U.S. POPULATION: 85.8% referred to White/Caucasians, 9.70% to Black/African Americans, 3.16% to Asian, 0.633% to Hispanics, and 0.633% to Native Americans. No cases referred to Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders. The proportion of mentions of race/ethnicity classified as either a routine descriptor or central to the case varied by racial/ethnic category. The association between genetics and disease in cases also varied by racial/ethnic category. Insights. The routinized use of race/ethnicity with no specific goal in preparation materials, such as question banks, risks contributing to racial bias. The implications of routinized use extend to assessment in medical education. Race/ethnicity should be used only when referring to social experiences of groups relevant to their health, not as a proxy for genetics, social class, or culture.

The threat of disease increases as species move toward extinction.

At local scales, infectious disease is a common driver of population declines, but globally it is an infrequent contributor to species extinction and endangerment. For species at risk of extinction from disease important questions remain unanswered, including when does disease become a threat to species and does it co-occur, predictably, with other threats? Using newly compiled data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we examined the relative role and co-occurrence of threats associated with amphibians, birds, and mammals at 6 levels of extinction risk (i.e., Red List status categories: least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, and extinct in the wild/extinct). We tested the null hypothesis that the proportion of species threatened by disease is the same in all 6 Red List status categories. Our approach revealed a new method for determining when disease most frequently threatens species at risk of extinction. The proportion of species threatened by disease varied significantly between IUCN status categories and linearly increased for amphibians, birds, and all species combined as these taxa move from move from least concern to critically endangered. Disease was infrequently the single contributing threat. However, when a species was negatively affected by a major threat other than disease (e.g., invasive species, land-use change) that species was more likely to be simultaneously threatened by disease than species that had no other threats. Potential drivers of these trends include ecological factors, clustering of phylogenetically related species in Red List status categories, discovery bias among species at greater risk of extinction, and availability of data. We echo earlier calls for baseline data on the presence of parasites and pathogens in species when they show the first signs of extinction risk and arguably before. La Amenaza de Enfermedades Incrementa a Medida que las Especies se Aproximan a la Extinción.

Insulin resistance, ceramide accumulation, and endoplasmic reticulum stress in human chronic alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is mediated by insulin resistance, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, oxidative stress, and DNA damage. Recent studies suggest that dysregulated lipid metabolism with accumulation of ceramides, together with ER stress potentiate hepatic insulin resistance and may cause steatohepatitis to progress. OBJECTIVE: We examined the degree to which hepatic insulin resistance in advanced human ALD is correlated with ER stress, dysregulated lipid metabolism, and ceramide accumulation. METHODS: We assessed the integrity of insulin signaling through the Akt pathway and measured proceramide and ER stress gene expression, ER stress signaling proteins, and ceramide profiles in liver tissue. RESULTS: Chronic ALD was associated with increased expression of insulin, IGF-1, and IGF-2 receptors, impaired signaling through IGF-1R and IRS1, increased expression of multiple proceramide and ER stress genes and proteins, and higher levels of the C14, C16, C18, and C20 ceramide species relative to control. CONCLUSIONS: In human chronic ALD, persistent hepatic insulin resistance is associated with dysregulated lipid metabolism, ceramide accumulation, and striking upregulation of multiple ER stress signaling molecules. Given the role of ceramides as mediators of ER stress and insulin resistance, treatment with ceramide enzyme inhibitors may help reverse or halt progression of chronic ALD.

Examining the evidence for chytridiomycosis in threatened amphibian species.

Extinction risks are increasing for amphibians due to rising threats and minimal conservation efforts. Nearly one quarter of all threatened/extinct amphibians in the IUCN Red List is purportedly at risk from the disease chytridiomycosis. However, a closer look at the data reveals that Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the causal agent) has been identified and confirmed to cause clinical disease in only 14% of these species. Primary literature surveys confirm these findings; ruling out major discrepancies between Red List assessments and real-time science. Despite widespread interest in chytridiomycosis, little progress has been made between assessment years to acquire evidence for the role of chytridiomycosis in species-specific amphibian declines. Instead, assessment teams invoke the precautionary principle when listing chytridiomycosis as a threat. Precaution is valuable when dealing with the world's most threatened taxa, however scientific research is needed to distinguish between real and predicted threats in order to better prioritize conservation efforts. Fast paced, cost effective, in situ research to confirm or rule out chytridiomycosis in species currently hypothesized to be threatened by the disease would be a step in the right direction. Ultimately, determining the manner in which amphibian conservation resources are utilized is a conversation for the greater conservation community that we hope to stimulate here.