Camera traps reveal that terrestrial predators are pervasive at riverscape cold-water thermal refuges.

Perceived predation risks by terrestrial predators are major ecological forces in aquatic systems, particularly for aggregating fish. Riverscape thermal refuges are discrete, localized cold-water patches where fish temporarily aggregate to buffer against heat events. Predation pressures by terrestrial predators at thermal refuges may decrease the thermoregulatory benefits of refuge use, but quantifying such effects can be challenging and controversial when sampling can impose additional stress on fish. We passively monitored terrestrial predator visitation patterns and predation at four thermal refuges in the Housatonic River, Connecticut, USA, between May 18th and September 29th, 2022, with camera traps, a common wildlife monitoring method. Specifically, we (1) assessed diel visitation patterns by different categories of terrestrial predators at thermal refuges and determined if patterns varied among predator categories or with prevailing environmental conditions, and (2) estimated the probability of predation by hour of the day combined across all predator categories, quantifying general predation pressures at refuges. We detected at least one terrestrial predator at a thermal refuge each day, and mean hourly visitation rates (count/h) were highly variable across predator categories and sampling dates. The most supported generalized additive mixed model indicated that terrestrial predator visitation rates (count/h/day) varied with mean daily river discharge and water temperature differential, and relationships differed across categories of terrestrial predators. We observed 22 separate predation attempts on thermoregulating salmonids and predicted that the probability of predation by any terrestrial predator increased from 0.002 to 0.017 throughout a 24 h day (p = .004). Camera traps provided novel evidence that terrestrial predators are pervasive at riverine thermal refuges, which is relevant for refuge conservation and management globally. We recommend the implementation of a coordinated monitoring network across riverine thermal refuges using camera traps, further enriching our ecological understanding of cumulative predator effects in refuges across complex riverscapes.

Separating Proactive Conservation from Species Listing Decisions.

Proactive Conservation is a paradigm of natural resource management in the United States that encourages voluntary, collaborative efforts to restore species before they need to be protected through government regulations. This paradigm is widely used to conserve at-risk species today, and when used in conjunction with the Policy for Evaluation of Conservation Efforts (PECE), it allows for successful conservation actions to preclude listing of species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Despite the popularity of this paradigm, and recent flagship examples of its use (e.g., greater sage grouse, Centrocercus urophasianus), critical assessments of the outcomes of Proactive Conservation are lacking from the standpoint of species status and recovery metrics. Here, we provide such an evaluation, using the New England cottontail (Sylvilagus transitionalis), heralded as a success of Proactive Conservation efforts in the northeastern United States, as a case study. We review the history and current status of the species, based on the state of the science, in the context of the Conservation Initiative, and the 2015 PECE decision not to the list the species under the ESA. In addition to the impacts of the PECE decision on the New England cottontail conservation specifically, our review also evaluates the benefits and limits of the Proactive Conservation paradigm more broadly, and we make recommendations for its role in relation to ESA implementation for the future of at-risk species management. We find that the status and assurances for recovery under the PECE policy, presented at the time of the New England cottontail listing decision, were overly optimistic, and the status of the species has worsened in subsequent years. We suggest that use of PECE to avoid listing may occur because of the perception of the ESA as a punitive law and a misconception that it is a failure, although very few listed species have gone extinct. Redefining recovery to decouple it from delisting and instead link it to probability of persistence under recommended conservation measures would remove some of the stigma of listing, and it would strengthen the role of Species Status Assessments in endangered species conservation.

Beyond protection: Expanding "conservation opportunity" to redefine conservation planning in the 21st century.

The protected lands estate increased dramatically during the 20th century and forms the backbone of current fisheries and wildlife conservation in North America. However, there is increasing evidence that modern conservation goals cannot be achieved by only focusing on adding new acreage, particularly with opportunistic protection. In the 21st century, flexibility and adaptability of conservation options can be accomplished by expanding the vocabulary of conservation planning beyond protection. We suggest a conceptual framework that considers suites of objectives to translate the broad goal of "conservation" into multiple implementation-specific objectives. These objectives form the "PCRM-PI" approach: protect, connect, restore, manage, partner, and inform. We use a case study to illustrate the limitations of protection-centric planning and how expanding the definition of conservation opportunity can help planners do more on the landscape. We suggest that the PCRM-PI approach with implementation-specific objectives is an effective way to bridge planning-implementation gaps and translate broad, landscape-level conservation goals into implementable actions.

Demographics and density estimates of two three-toed box turtle (Terrapene carolina triunguis) populations within forest and restored prairie sites in central Missouri.

Box turtles (Terrapene carolina) are widely distributed but vulnerable to population decline across their range. Using distance sampling, morphometric data, and an index of carapace damage, we surveyed three-toed box turtles (Terrapene carolina triunguis) at 2 sites in central Missouri, and compared differences in detection probabilities when transects were walked by one or two observers. Our estimated turtle densities within forested cover was less at the Thomas S. Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Center, a site dominated by eastern hardwood forest (d = 1.85 turtles/ha, 95% CI [1.13, 3.03]) than at the Prairie Fork Conservation Area, a site containing a mix of open field and hardwood forest (d = 4.14 turtles/ha, 95% CI [1.99, 8.62]). Turtles at Baskett were significantly older and larger than turtles at Prairie Fork. Damage to the carapace did not differ significantly between the 2 populations despite the more prevalent habitat management including mowing and prescribed fire at Prairie Fork. We achieved improved estimates of density using two rather than one observer at Prairie Fork, but negligible differences in density estimates between the two methods at Baskett. Error associated with probability of detection decreased at both sites with the addition of a second observer. We provide demographic data on three-toed box turtles that suggest the use of a range of habitat conditions by three-toed box turtles. This case study suggests that habitat management practices and their impacts on habitat composition may be a cause of the differences observed in our focal populations of turtles.

Weather conditions associated with autumn migration by mule deer in Wyoming.

Maintaining ecological integrity necessitates a proactive approach of identifying and acquiring lands to conserve unfragmented landscapes, as well as evaluating existing mitigation strategies to increase connectivity in fragmented landscapes. The increased use of highway underpasses and overpasses to restore connectivity for wildlife species offers clear conservation benefits, yet also presents a unique opportunity to understand how weather conditions may impact movement of wildlife species. We used remote camera observations (19,480) from an existing wildlife highway underpass in Wyoming and daily meteorological observations to quantify weather conditions associated with autumn migration of mule deer in 2009 and 2010. We identified minimal daily temperature and snow depth as proximate cues associated with mule deer migration to winter range. These weather cues were consistent across does and bucks, but differed slightly by year. Additionally, extreme early season snow depth or cold temperature events appear to be associated with onset of migration. This information will assist wildlife managers and transportation officials as they plan future projects to maintain and enhance migration routes for mule deer.

Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests.

Climate change may impact forest management activities with important implications for forest ecosystems. However, most climate change research on forests has focused on climate-driven shifts in species ranges, forest carbon, and hydrology. To examine how climate change may alter timber harvesting and forest operations in north temperate forests, we asked: 1) How have winter conditions changed over the past 60 years? 2) Have changes in winter weather altered timber harvest patterns on public forestlands? 3) What are the implications of changes in winter weather conditions for timber harvest operations in the context of the economic, ecological, and social goals of forest management? Using meteorological information from Climate Data Online and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models we document substantial changes in winter conditions in Wisconsin, including a two- to three-week shortening of frozen ground conditions from 1948 to 2012. Increases in minimum and mean soil temperatures were spatially heterogeneous. Analysis of timber harvest records identified a shift toward greater harvest of jack pine and red pine and less harvest of aspen, black spruce, hemlock, red maple, and white spruce in years with less frozen ground or snow duration. Interviews suggested that frozen ground is a mediating condition that enables low-impact timber harvesting. Climate change may alter frozen ground conditions with complex implications for forest management.

Land-cover change and avian diversity in the conterminous United States.

Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land-cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land-cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed-effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land-cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.

Conservation of forest birds: evidence of a shifting baseline in community structure.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying changes in forest bird diversity is an essential task for developing effective conservation actions. When subtle changes in diversity accumulate over time, annual comparisons may offer an incomplete perspective of changes in diversity. In this case, progressive change, the comparison of changes in diversity from a baseline condition, may offer greater insight because changes in diversity are assessed over longer periods of times. Our objectives were to determine how forest bird diversity has changed over time and whether those changes were associated with forest disturbance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data, a time series of Landsat images classified with respect to land cover change, and mixed-effects models to associate changes in forest bird community structure with forest disturbance, latitude, and longitude in the conterminous United States for the years 1985 to 2006. We document a significant divergence from the baseline structure for all birds of similar migratory habit and nest location, and all forest birds as a group from 1985 to 2006. Unexpectedly, decreases in progressive similarity resulted from small changes in richness (<1 species per route for the 22-year study period) and modest losses in abundance (-28.7 - -10.2 individuals per route) that varied by migratory habit and nest location. Forest disturbance increased progressive similarity for Neotropical migrants, permanent residents, ground nesting, and cavity nesting species. We also documented highest progressive similarity in the eastern United States. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Contemporary forest bird community structure is changing rapidly over a relatively short period of time (e.g., approximately 22 years). Forest disturbance and forest regeneration are primary factors associated with contemporary forest bird community structure, longitude and latitude are secondary factors, and forest loss is a tertiary factor. Importantly, these findings suggest some regions of the United States may already fall below the habitat amount threshold where fragmentation effects become important predictors of forest bird community structure.