Short of capacity? Why the government must address the capacity constraints in the English National Health Service.

A decade of low investment in the English National Health Service (NHS) resulted in strong headline productivity growth but undermined the health system's resilience and left it exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Projected demographic pressures, driven by the aging of the baby-boom generation and the rise in multi-morbidity levels in the population, will add pressures to already stretched health care resources. As the NHS faces the twin challenges of recovering services after the pandemic and meeting care needs from an aging population, our projections of demand for care indicate the NHS almost certainly needs significantly more beds as well as more staff. Productivity improvements in hospital care can reduce the amount of additional resources needed, but this will require significant concomitant investment in community-based health and long-term-care services.

Long-term projections of health care funding, bed capacity and workforce needs in England.

OBJECTIVES: Changes in population structure and underlying health put a significant strain on health care system resources. In this context, projecting future health care needs can contribute to better health care system planning and resource allocation over the long term. This paper presents a model of future demand and costs of care to estimate long-term funding and resource needs up to 2030/31. METHODS: Using data from England, we first calculate health care utilization rates by age, gender and comorbidity, where available, and multiply them by the projected future populations to estimate future demand for a wide range of service areas. We then cost this future demand using 2018/19 unit costs for each service area which we project by accounting for assumptions around future inflation and productivity. RESULTS: Our results indicate in the longer term, funding for the English NHS would need to increase by around 2.8% per year in real terms to meet these underlying funding pressures. Further, our projections imply that the number of general and acute care beds would need to grow by between 1.3 and 4.1% a year and the NHS workforce would need to grow by between 1.8 and 2.6% a year by 2030/31, depending on productivity assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Our projections of workforce and hospital beds illustrate the extent of underlying pressures from population ageing and changes in morbidity. Improvements in care emerge as crucial for meeting these pressures.

The Use of Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Support Decision Making in Healthcare: An Updated Systematic Literature Review.

OBJECTIVES: Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used for decision making in healthcare. However, its application in different decision-making contexts is still unclear. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive review of MCDA studies performed to inform decisions in healthcare and to summarize its application in different decision contexts. METHODS: We updated a systematic review conducted in 2013 by searching Embase, MEDLINE, and Google Scholar for MCDA studies in healthcare, published in English between August 2013 and November 2020. We also expanded the search by reviewing grey literature found via Trip Medical Database and Google, published between January 1990 and November 2020. A comprehensive template was developed to extract information about the decision context, criteria, methods, stakeholders involved, and sensitivity analyses conducted. RESULTS: From the 4295 identified studies, 473 studies were eligible for full-text review after assessing titles and abstracts. Of those, 228 studies met the inclusion criteria and underwent data extraction. The use of MCDA continues to grow in healthcare literature, with most of the studies (49%) informing priority-setting decisions. Safety, cost, and quality of care delivery are the most frequently used criteria, although there are considerable differences across decision contexts. Almost half of the MCDA studies used the linear additive model whereas scales and the analytical hierarchy process were the most used techniques for scoring and weighting, respectively. Not all studies report on each one of the MCDA steps, consider axiomatic properties, or justify the methods used. CONCLUSIONS: A guide on how to conduct and report MCDA that acknowledges the particularities of the different decision contexts and methods needs to be developed.

Implementation of significant mental health service change: perceptions and concerns of a mental health workforce in the context of transformation.

PURPOSE: As part of an evaluation of the nationally mandated Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) "transformation" in one foundation NHS trust, the authors explored the experiences of mental health staff involved in the transformation. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The authors employed a qualitative methodology and followed an ethnographic approach. This included observation of mental health staff involved in the transformation and informal interviews (80 h). The authors also undertook semi-structured interviews with key staff members (n = 16). Data were analysed thematically. FINDINGS: The findings fall into three thematic areas around the transformation, namely (1) rationale; (2) implementation; and (3) maintenance. Staff members were supportive of the rationale for the changes, but implementation was affected by perceived poor communication, resulting in experiences of unpreparedness and de-stabilisation. Staff members lacked time to set up the necessary processes, meaning that changes were not always implemented smoothly. Recruiting and retaining the right staff, a consistent challenge throughout the transformation, was crucial for maintaining the service changes. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: There is little published on the perceptions and experiences of mental health workforces around the CAMHS transformations across the UK. This paper presents the perceptions of mental health staff, whose organisation underwent significant "transformational" change. Staff demonstrated considerable resilience in the change process, but better recognition of their needs might have improved retention and satisfaction. Time for planning and training would enable staff members to better develop the processes and resources necessary in the context of significant service change. Developing ways for services to compare changes they are implementing and sharing good practice around implementation with each other are also vital.

How does reorganisation in child and adolescent mental health services affect access to services? An observational study of two services in England.

BACKGROUND: Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in England are making significant changes to improve access and effectiveness. This 'transformation' variously involves easier access to services through a Single Point of Access (SPA), more integrated services within CAMHS and enhanced co-provision across education and third sector or non-profit organisations. METHODS: A mixed-methods observational study was conducted to explore the process and impact of transformation over four years in two services. Ethnographic observations and in-depth interviews were conducted and Electronic Patient Records with over one million contacts analysed. Difference-in-differences analysis with propensity score matching to estimate the causal impact of the transformation on patient access was utilised. OUTCOMES: Spend and staffing increased across both CAMHS. The SPA had growing rates of self-referral and new care pathways were seeing patients according to expected degree of psychopathology. Third sector partners were providing increasing numbers of low-intensity interventions. Although the majority of staff were supportive of the changes, the process of transformation led to service tensions. In the first year after transformation there was no change in the rate of new patients accessing services or new spells (episodes of care) in the services. However, by year three, the number of new patients accessing CAMHS was 19% higher (Incidence Rate Ratio: 1·19, CI: 1·16, 1·21) and the rate of new spells was 12% higher (Incidence Rate Ratio: 1·12, CI: 1·05, 1·20). INTERPRETATION: Transformation investment, both financial and intellectual, can help to increase access to CAMHS in England, but time is needed to realise the benefits of reorganisation.

Estimating EQ-5D utilities based on the Short-Form Long Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ-8).

PURPOSE: The aim of this work was to develop a mapping algorithm for estimating EuroQoL 5 Dimension (EQ-5D) utilities from responses to the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ), thus increasing LTCQ's potential as a comprehensive outcome measure for evaluating integrated care initiatives. METHODS: We combined data from three studies to give a total sample of 1334 responses. In each of the three datasets, we randomly selected 75% of the sample and combined the selected random samples to generate the estimation dataset, which consisted of 1001 patients. The unselected 25% observations from each dataset were combined to generate an internal validation dataset of 333 patients. We used direct mapping models by regressing responses to the LTCQ-8 directly onto EQ-5D-5L and EQ-5D-3L utilities as well as response (or indirect) mapping to predict the response level that patients selected for each of the five EQ-5D-5L domains. Several models were proposed and compared on mean squared error and mean absolute error. RESULTS: A two-part model with OLS was the best performing based on the mean squared error (0.038) and mean absolute error (0.147) when estimating the EQ-5D-5L utilities. A multinomial response mapping model using LTCQ-8 responses was used to predict EQ-5D-5L responses levels. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a mapping algorithm for estimating EQ-5D utilities from LTCQ responses. The results from this study can help broaden the applicability of the LTCQ by producing utility values for use in economic analyses.

Introducing a single point of access (SPA) to child and adolescent mental health services in England: a mixed-methods observational study.

BACKGROUND: In many high-income countries, primary care practitioners are the main point of referral for specialist mental health services. In England, Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) are increasingly adopting a Single Point of Access (SPA) to streamline referrals and introduce self and parent/carer-referrals. This involves a significant shift of responsibility from primary care towards CAMHS who adopt a more active role as gatekeeper for their service. This study evaluates the adoption of a SPA in CAMHS across a large region in England. METHODS: We conducted an observational mixed methods study in two CAMHS from January 2018 to March 2019 to evaluate the adoption of a SPA. We collected quantitative data from electronic patient records and qualitative data through ethnographic observation and in-depth interviews of staff and stakeholders with experience of using CAMHS. Additional data on volumes was shared directly from the SPAs and a further snapshot of 1 week's users was collected. RESULTS: A similar SPA model emerged across the two services. Staff were positive about what the model could achieve and access rates grew quickly following awareness-raising activities. Despite the initial focus being on a telephone line, online referrals became the more regularly used referral method. Increased access brought challenges in terms of resourcing, including identifying the right staff for the role of call handlers. A further challenge was to impose consistency on triage decisions, which required structured information collection during the assessment process. Similar to GP referrals, those self-referring via the SPA were mainly from the least deprived areas. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of a SPA has the potential to improve young people's access to mental health services. By addressing some of the barriers to access, simplifying where to go to get help and making it easier to contact the service directly, a SPA can help more individuals and families access timely support. However, the introduction of a SPA does not in itself expand the capacity of CAMHS, and therefore expectations within services and across sectors need to be tempered accordingly. SPA services providing different referral approaches can further improve access for the harder to reach populations.

Cost and effects of integrated care: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health and care services are becoming increasingly strained and healthcare authorities worldwide are investing in integrated care in the hope of delivering higher-quality services while containing costs. The cost-effectiveness of integrated care, however, remains unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to appraise current economic evaluations of integrated care and assesses the impact on outcomes and costs. METHODS: CINAHL, DARE, EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, NHS EED, OECD Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and WHOLIS databases from inception to 31 December 2019 were searched to identify studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of integrated care. Study quality was assessed using an adapted CHEERS checklist and used as weight in a random-effects meta-analysis to estimate mean cost and mean outcomes of integrated care. RESULTS: Selected studies achieved a relatively low average quality score of 65.0% (± 18.7%). Overall meta-analyses from 34 studies showed a significant decrease in costs (0.94; CI 0.90-0.99) and a statistically significant improvement in outcomes (1.06; CI 1.05-1.08) associated with integrated care compared to the control. There is substantial heterogeneity in both costs and outcomes across subgroups. Results were significant in studies lasting over 12 months (12 studies), with both a decrease in cost (0.87; CI 0.80-0.94) and improvement in outcomes (1.15; 95% CI 1.11-1.18) for integrated care interventions; whereas, these associations were not significant in studies with follow-up less than a year. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that integrated care is likely to reduce cost and improve outcome. However, existing evidence varies largely and is of moderate quality. Future economic evaluation should target methodological issues to aid policy decisions with more robust evidence on the cost-effectiveness of integrated care.

Impact of transforming mental health services for young people in England on patient access, resource use and health: a quasi-experimental study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) transformation in South East England on patient access, resource utilisation and health outcomes. DESIGN: In an observational study, we use difference-in-differences analysis with propensity score matching to analyse routinely collected patient level data. SETTING: Three CAMHS services in South East England. PARTICIPANTS: All patients attending CAMHS between April 2012 and December 2018, with more than 57 000 spells of care included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The rate and volume of people accessing CAMHS; waiting times to the first contact and waiting times between the first and second contact; and health outcomes, including the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale (RCADS). RESULTS: The intervention led to 20% (incidence rate ratio: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.24) more new patients starting per month. There was mixed evidence on waiting times for the first contact. The intervention led to 10% (incidence rate ratio: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.18) higher waiting time for the second contact. The number of contacts per spell (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.25) and the rereferral rate (OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.17) were not significantly different. During the post intervention period, patients in the intervention group scored on average 3.3 (95% CI: -5.0 to -1.6) points lower on the RCADS and 1.0 (95% CI: -1.8 to -0.3) points lower on the SDQ compared with the control group after adjusting for the baseline score. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there are signs that transformation can help CAMHS achieve the objectives of greater access and improved health outcomes, but trade-offs exist among different performance metrics, particularly between access and waiting times. Commissioners and providers should be conscious of any trade-offs when undertaking service redesign and transformation.

Variation in spend on young mental health across Clinical Commissioning Groups in England: a cross-sectional observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether the rate of spend on child and adolescent mental health is influenced by demand for other competing services in local commissioning decisions. DESIGN: Analysis of spend data by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG), including other publicly available data to control for variation in need. SETTING: Local commissioning decisions in the National Health Service. PARTICIPANTS: Commissioning of health services across 209 CCGs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association between the rate of child and adolescent mental health spend and demand for child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS), adult mental health services and physical health services after adjusting for confounding factors. RESULTS: An additional percentage point in the proportion of children in care is associated with 4% higher child and young person mental health (CYP MH) spend per person aged 0-18 (ratio of means: 1.04; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.07). Spending £100 more on physical health services was associated with 9% lower spend in CYP MH per person aged 0-18 (ratio of means: 0.91; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare commissioners in England face a challenge in balancing competing needs. This paper contributes to our understanding of this by quantifying the possible extent of the trade-off between physical health and CYP MH when allocating budgets. Any attempt to explain the variation in CAMHS spend must also take account of demand for other services.

Understanding and evaluating new models of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in South-East England: a study protocol for an observational mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Increased demand for Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS), alongside concerns that services should be better commissioned to meet the needs of the most vulnerable, has contributed to a requirement to transform services to improve accessibility, quality of care and health outcomes. Following the submission of government-mandated transformation plans for CAMHS, services in England are changing in how, where and by whom they are delivered. This protocol describes the research methods to be applied to understand CAMHS transformations and evaluate the impact on the use of mental health services, patient care, satisfaction, health outcomes and health resource utilisation costs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A mixed-methods approach will be taken in an observational retrospective study of CAMHS provided by a large National Health Service (NHS) mental health trust in South-East England (Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust). Quantitative research will include descriptive analysis of routinely collected data, with difference-in-differences analysis supplemented with propensity score matching performed to assess the impact of CAMHS transformations from 2015 onwards. An economic evaluation will be conducted from a healthcare perspective to provide commissioners with indications of value for money. Qualitative research will include observations of services and interviews with key stakeholders including CAMHS staff, service users and guardians, to help identify mechanisms leading to changes in service delivery, as well as barriers and enabling factors in this phase of transformation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This project has been registered with NHS Oxford Health Foundation Trust as a service evaluation. Informed consent will be sought from all stakeholders partaking in interviews according to good clinical practice. A local data sharing protocol will govern the transfer of quantitative data. Study findings will be published in professional journals for NHS managers and peer-reviewed scientific journals. They will be discussed in seminars targeting CAMHS providers, managers and commissioners and presented at scientific conferences.