Would plain packaging and health warning labels reduce smoking in the presence of informal markets? A choice experiment in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress made by many countries on the adoption of plain tobacco packaging laws over the last years, low- and middle-income countries, with a large supply of loose cigarettes via informal vendors, remain far behind. AIM: To study the potential effectiveness of plain tobacco packaging and dissuasive cigarette sticks, via willingness-to-pay estimates, when illicit cigarette options are available. METHODS: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which respondents chose licit and illicit products with three attributes: packaging (standard vs. plain packaging), stick design (branded stick vs. stick with warning), and price level. The sample, collected on 12/2021, consisted of 1761 respondents from an internet panel involving smokers and nonsmokers. Conditional logit and latent class models were used to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid restrictive packaging elements. RESULTS: Nonsmokers are willing to pay USD $5.63 for a pack of cigarettes to avoid plain packaging, which is higher than the actual commercial price of illicit cigarettes (USD $2.40). The WTP increases to USD $12.14 in the presence of illicit alternatives. Smokers are also willing to pay to avoid illicit options, which they also deem riskier, and the presence of such options increases the WTP to avoid plain packaging. However, nonsmokers do not perceive the illicit option as riskier. The dissuasive stick (stick with warning) does not affect perceptions of risk and plays a small role in terms of choice for both smokers and nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: Even in the presence of illicit tobacco alternatives, plain packaging seems to be as effective in reducing the attractiveness of tobacco products in Colombia as in other countries that have already adopted it. Given conflicting results on the case for dissuasive sticks, there is a need for more research.

Use of Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds in Healthcare Public Policy: Progress and Challenges.

The article offers a comparative analysis of the influence of cost-effectiveness thresholds in the decision-making processes in financing policies, coverage, and price regulation of health technologies in nine countries. We investigated whether countries used cost-effectiveness thresholds for public health policy decision making and found that few countries have adopted the cost-effectiveness threshold as an official criterion for financing, reimbursement, or pricing. However, in countries where it is applied, such as Thailand, the results have been very favorable in terms of minimizing health technology prices and ensuring the financial sustainability of the health system. Although the cost-effectiveness threshold has opportunities for improvement, particularly in certain institutional contexts and with adequate participation of the different strategic actors in the formulation of public policy, its potential use and added value are significant in various aspects.

Cost-utility analysis of a palliative care program in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: The economic assessment of health care models in palliative care promotes their global development. The purpose of the study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of a palliative care program (named Contigo) with that of conventional care from the perspective of a health benefit plan administrator company, Sanitas, in Colombia. METHODS: The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) and the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) were estimated using micro-costing in a retrospective, analytical cross-sectional study on the care of terminally ill patients enrolled in a palliative care program. A 6-month time horizon prior to death was used. The EQ-5D-3 L questionnaire (EQ-5D-3 L) and the McGill Quality of Life Questionnaire (MQOL) were used to measure the quality of life. RESULTS: The study included 43 patients managed within the program and 16 patients who received conventional medical management. The program was less expensive than the conventional practice (difference of 1,924.35 US dollars (USD), P = 0.18). When compared to the last 15 days, there is a higher perception of quality of life, which yielded 0.25 in the EQ-5D-3 L (p < 0.01) and 1.55 in the MQOL (P < 0.01). The ICUR was negative and the INMB was positive. CONCLUSION: Because the Contigo program reduces costs while improving quality of life, it is considered to be net cost-saving and a model with value in health care. Greater availability of palliative care programs, such as Contigo, in Colombia can help reduce existing gaps in access to universal palliative care health coverage, resulting in more cost-effective care.

Inequality of the crowding-out effect of tobacco expenditure in Colombia.

In recent decades, policy initiatives involving increases in the tobacco tax have increased pressure on budget allocations in poor households. In this study, we examine this issue in the context of the expansion of the social welfare state that has taken place over the last two decades in several emerging economies. This study explores the case of Colombia between 1997 and 2011. In this period, the budget share of the poorest expenditure quintile devoted to tobacco products of smokers' households doubled. We analyse the differences between the poorest and richest quintiles concerning the changes in budget shares, fixing a reference population over time to avoid demographic composition confounders. We find no evidence of crowding-out of education or healthcare expenditures. This is likely to be the result of free universal access to health insurance and basic education for the poor. For higher-income households, tobacco crowds out expenditures on entertainment, leisure activities, and luxury expenditures. This finding should reassure policymakers who are keen to impose tobacco taxes as an element of their public health policy.

Detecting unexpected growths in health technologies expenditures: the case of MIPRES in Colombia.

We developed an algorithm to explore unexpected growth in the usage and costs of health technologies. We exploit data from the expenditures on technologies funded by the Colombian government under the compulsory insurance system, where all prescriptions for technologies not included in an explicit list must be registered in a centralized information system, covering the period from 2017 to 2022. The algorithm consists of two steps: an outlier detection method based on the density of the expenditures for selecting a first set of technologies to consider (39 technologies out of 106,957), and two anomaly detection models for time series to determine which insurance companies, health providers, and regions have the most notorious increases. We have found that most medicines associated with atypical behavior and significant monetary growth could be linked to the use of recently introduced drugs in the market. These drugs have valid patents and very specific clinical indications, often involving high-cost pharmacological treatments. The most relevant case is the Burosumab, approved in 2018 to treat a rare genetic disorder affecting skeletal growth. Secondly, there is clear evidence of anomalous increasing trend evolutions in the identified enteral nutritional support supplements or Food for Special Medical Purposes. The health system did not purchase these products before July 2021, but in 2022 they represented more than 500,000 USD per month.

Sanitation and marriage markets in India: Evidence from the Total Sanitation Campaign.

This paper measures the additional value of sanitation within the marriage arrangement. We use data from the Indian human development household survey (IHDS) to model the marital decisions of men and women in rural India and to estimate the marital surplus (the gains from being married). We use the model to demonstrate that the government's Total Sanitation Campaign (TSC) increased marital surplus and changed marriage market outcomes for men and women. Decomposition reveals (i) that sanitation makes it more attractive to be in a marriage for both gender, and (ii) that TSC exposure led to a decrease in the wife's surplus share, implying a redistribution of gains within the marriage.

Catastrophic health-care payments and multidimensional poverty: Are they related?

The negative impact of health-related out-of-pocket (OOP) payments is a well-known problem in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cross-sectional analysis reveals that households use different coping mechanisms to mitigate or overcome the effect of OOP payments, but little is known from a longitudinal perspective. We explore this link using panel data for Colombia, Mexico, India, Malawi, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania. Using a fixed-effect model, we computed the association between multidimensional poverty (MP) and facing catastrophic health payments (CHP) using a capacity-to-pay approach. We estimated different heterogeneous effects, including variables such as area of residence, facing CHP, being poor in the first wave, and facing CHP in period two. While using cross-sectional data, we found that the association between CHP and MP is present for six of the seven countries; it is not the case for the time variation in most of them. The results provide evidence that OOP induce a long-term impact on MP only in Colombia, India and Nigeria. In the last two countries, the levels of poverty and CHP were the highest of all seven, and the association between both situations was found by using different poverty cutoffs and thresholds to define CHP.

De-normalizing smoking in urban areas: Public smoking bans and smoking prevalence.

The effectiveness of command-and-control policies related to tobacco use has been studied in high-income countries. Still, there is limited evidence of their effects in low and middle-income countries. We explore the case of Colombia, a country that introduced a business-supported smoking ban in bars and restaurants and all public indoor spaces in 2010. This paper investigates the effect of smoking bans in bars and restaurants on smoking prevalence in Bogotá, Colombia. In this paper, we use the matching with triple-differences technique in analyzing household consumption data from the 2007 and 2011 quality of life surveys. This is done by exploiting their geographical proximity and variation in the density of commercial areas. We found that after the smoking ban implementation, smoking prevalence reduced in households near high-density commercial blocks compared to households near low-density commercial blocks (-10.8 pp.). The impact is larger for households with children and older household heads. Since households near high-density commercial blocks are more frequently exposed to smoking than households near low-density commercial blocks, the former would be more willing to internalize the smoking de-normalization process.

Does price-cap regulation work for increasing access to contraceptives? Aggregate- and pharmacy-level evidence from Colombia.

Price caps through international reference pricing are widely used worldwide but not so commonly in over-the-counter markets. We study the short-term effects of a price cap regulation for oral contraceptives in Colombia, a market dominated by the presence of several branded generics with multiple active ingredients. Most of the regulated products were fourth-generation contraceptives, and the Colombian health benefits plan only covers second-generation ones, resulting in a de facto over-the-counter market. Our aim is to establish whether the regulation triggered a competitive response within and across product categories, by price levels and regulatory status. The panel data analysis of quarterly level data for 52 drugs (and 79 drugs in an expanded sample without transactions for some quarters) reveals a massive expansion of transactions, for the directly regulated products that were formerly the most expensive, and for the indirectly regulated (i.e., a regulated ingredient) among those with an intermediate price. Although this price reduction could have led to a crowd out of the publicly provided contraceptives, we show that this is not the case. Since the information system cannot trace the final consumers' purchases, we complement our analysis with an audit study involving 213 pharmacies in Bogota. We find that the price reduction was effectively transmitted to the final consumers.

Wealth and inequality gradients for the detection and control of hypertension in older individuals in middle-income economies around 2007-2015.

Socioeconomic inequalities in the detection and treatment of non-communicable diseases represent a challenge for healthcare systems in middle-income countries (MICs) in the context of population ageing. This challenge is particularly pressing regarding hypertension due to its increasing prevalence among older individuals in MICs, especially among those with lower socioeconomic status (SES). Using comparative data for China, Colombia, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa, we systematically assess the association between SES, measured in the form of a wealth index, and hypertension detection and control around the years 2007-15. Furthermore, we determine what observable factors, such as socio-demographic and health characteristics, explain existing SES-related inequalities in hypertension detection and control using a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. Results show that the prevalence of undetected hypertension is significantly associated with lower SES. For uncontrolled hypertension, there is evidence of a significant gradient in three of the six countries at the time the data were collected. Differences between rural and urban areas as well as lower and higher educated individuals account for the largest proportion of SES-inequalities in hypertension detection and control at the time. Improved access to primary healthcare in MICs since then may have contributed to a reduction in health inequalities in detection and treatment of hypertension. However, whether this indeed has been the case remains to be investigated.

Price elasticity of demand for voluntary health insurance plans in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Since 1993, Colombia has had a mandatory social health insurance scheme that aims to provide universal health coverage to all citizens. However, some contributory regime participants purchase voluntary private health insurance (VPHI) to access better quality health services (i. e., physicians and hospitals), shorter waiting times, and a more extensive providers' network. This article aims to estimate the price elasticity of demand for the VPHI market in Colombia. METHODS: We use data from the 2016-2017 consumer expenditure national survey and apply a Heckman selection model to address the selection problem into purchasing private insurance. Using the estimation results to further estimate the price semi-elasticity for VPHI, we then calculate the price elasticity for the households' health expenditure and acquisition of VHPI. RESULTS: Our main findings indicate that a 1% VPHI price increase reduces the proportion of households affiliated to a VPHI in the country by about 2.32% to 4.66%, with robust results across sample restrictions. There are relevant differences across age groups, with younger households' heads being less responsive to VPHI price changes. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the VPHI demand in Colombia is noticeably elastic, and therefore tax policy changes can have a significant impact on public health insurance expenditures. The government should estimate the optimal VPHI purchase in order to reduce any welfare loss that the current arrangement might be generating.

Income inequality and self-rated health status in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: The negative association between income inequality and health has been known in the literature as the Income Inequality Hypothesis (IIH). Despite the multiple studies examining the validity of this hypothesis, evidence is still inconclusive, and the debate remains unsolved. In addition, relatively few studies have focused their attention on developing or emerging economies, where levels of inequality tend to be the highest in the world. This work examines the statistical association between income inequality and self-rated health status in Colombia, a highly unequal Latin American country. METHODS: To explore whether this association is present in the general population or whether it is only confined to the bottom of the income distribution, we use data from the 2011-2019 National Quality of Life Survey. Multiple probit estimations are considered for testing the robustness of the IIH. RESULTS: Evidence favouring the IIH was found, even after controlling for individual income levels, average regional income, and socioeconomic characteristics. The link between income inequality and the probability of reporting poor health seems to be present across all income quintiles. However, the magnitude of such association is considerably smaller when using inequality measures with relatively greater sensitivity to income differences among the rich. CONCLUSIONS: The association between regional income inequality and individual's self-rated health status in Colombia is not only confined to low-income individuals but extends across all socioeconomic strata. This association is robust to the income inequality measure implemented, the income-unit of analysis, and changes in the sample. It is suggested that reducing income disparities can potentially contribute to improving individual's health.

Estimating cost-effectiveness thresholds under a managed healthcare system: experiences from Colombia.

Like most of the world, low- and middle-income countries have faced a growing demand for new health technologies and higher budget constraints. It is necessary to have technical instruments to make decisions based on real-world evidence that allows maximization of the population's health with a limited budget. We estimated the supply-based cost-effectiveness elasticity, which was then used to determine the cost-effectiveness threshold for the healthcare system of Colombia, a middle-income country where multiple insurers, paid under capitation rules, manage the compulsory contributions of the citizens and government subsidies. Using administrative data, we explored the variation of health expenditures and outcomes at the insurer, geographical region, diagnosis group and year levels. To deal with endogeneity in a two-way fixed-effects model, we instrumented health expenditures using characteristics of the health system such as drug-price regulation. We estimated the threshold to be US$4487.5 per years of life lost avoided [14.7 million Colombian pesos (COP) at 2019 prices] and US$5180.8 per quality-adjusted life-years gained (17 million COP at 2019 prices), around one times the gross domestic product GDP per capita. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first estimation of the cost-effectiveness threshold elasticity supply-based in a middle-income country with a managed healthcare system.

Estimating the gains of early detection of hypertension over the marginal patient.

This study estimated the potential impact of early diagnosis programs on health outcomes in England. Specifically, if advising individuals to visit their family doctor due to a suspected case of mild hypertension would result in (i) an increase in the diagnosis and treatment of high blood pressure; (ii) an improved lifestyle reflected in objective measures such as the body-mass-index and blood pressure levels; (iii) a reduced probability of the onset of other cardiovascular diseases, such as diabetes. To address potential selection bias in screening, a feature of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing is exploited, motivating a regression discontinuity design. If respondents' blood pressure measurements are above a standard clinical threshold, they are advised to visit their family doctor to confirm hypertension. Two years after the protocol, there is evidence of an increase in diagnosis (5.7 pp, p-val = 0.06) and medication use (6 pp, p-val = 0.007) for treating the condition. However, four years after the protocol, the difference in diagnosis and medication disappeared (4 pp, p-val = 0.384; 3.4 pp, p-val = 0.261). Moreover, there are no differences on observed blood pressure levels (systolic 0.026 mmHg, p-val = 0.815; diastolic -0.336 mmHg, p-val = 0.765), or Body-Mass-Index ((0.771, p-val = 0.154)). There are also no differences on diagnosis of diabetes (1.7 pp, p-val = 0.343) or heart related conditions (3.6 pp, p-value = 0.161). In conclusion, the nudge produces an earlier diagnosis of around two years, but there are no perceivable gains in health outcomes after four years.

Price smoking participation elasticity in Colombia: estimates by age and socioeconomic level.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco prevalence in Colombia is small compared with other Latin America despite the nation's tobacco taxes being among the lowest in the region. However, tobacco taxes have increased several times during the last decade, and large increases in 2010 and 2016 impacted consumer prices. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to estimate the price smoking participation elasticity (PPE) in Colombia, with specific reference to regional increases in consumer prices after 2010 tax policy changes. METHODS: The PPE is computed using logistic regression based on individual-level data from the National Psychoactive Substances Consumption Survey for 2008 and 2013. Our specific focus is state-level variation in Colombian cigarette prices between 2008 and 2013 induced by the tax hike in 2010. RESULTS: The estimated PPE in Colombia is around -0.66 (p value=0.046). We find almost no differences across socioeconomic level, but price sensitivity was greater for women than men, and for relatively older individuals (ages 51-64). CONCLUSIONS: PPE for Colombia is above estimates for comparable middle-income countries such as Mexico. As a result, current estimates for health gains of tax policies are likely to be underestimated. Moreover, in contrast with the literature, we find that the PPE for the youth (≤25 years) is lower than older age groups, and there is no evidence of a prominent socio-economic status (SES) gradient.

Tobacco taxes and illicit cigarette trade in Colombia.

This paper estimates the short-term impact of a twofold increase of the tobacco excise tax on consumption of illicit cigarette trade in Colombia. Using data collected before and after the tax increase from a novel smoker survey (DEICS-Col), the impact is estimated as the change in the probability that a smoker has illicit cigarettes. The methodology follows a difference-in-differences strategy, measuring the year-to-year variation of the proportion of illicit cigarettes between smokers who report buying low-priced cigarettes (the highest treatment intensity) and those who bought high-priced cigarettes (lowest treatment intensity). Estimations of the impact show an average increase of 4-5 percentage points on the proportion of illicit cigarettes relative to an initial penetration of low-priced illicit cigarettes of nearly 5.1 %.

Socio-economic inequalities in high blood pressure and additional risk factors for cardiovascular disease among older individuals in Colombia: Results from a nationally representative study.

BACKGROUND: Studies in high-income countries have documented a consistent gradient between socio-economic status (SES) and high blood pressure (HBP), a key risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, evidence from Latin American countries (LA) remains comparatively scarce and inconclusive. DATA: Data for 3,984 individuals came from a nationally representative survey of individuals aged 60 years or above in Colombia (Encuesta de Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento) (SABE) conducted in 2015. SES was measured by educational achievement and household assets. CVD risk factors included objectively measured HBP and body mass index (BMI), as well as behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetables intake, and physical activity). METHODS: Bivariate methods and multivariate regression models were used to assess associations between SES with HBP as well as additional risk factors for CVD. RESULTS: Individuals with lower SES have significantly higher risk of suffering from HBP. Compared to those with no formal education, individuals with secondary or post-secondary education have a 37% lower risk of HBP (odds ratio [OR] = 0.63, P-value<0.001). Being in the highest asset quartile (most affluent) is associated with a 44% lower risk (OR = 56, P-value = 0.001) of HBP compared to those in the lowest asset quartile (most deprived). Individuals with lower SES are more likely to smoke, not engage in regular physical activity and not regularly consume fruits or vegetables. In contrast, individuals with higher SES are more likely to consume alcohol and, those with more assets, more likely to be obese. CONCLUSIONS: Among older Colombians there exists a marked SES gradient in HBP as well as several additional risk factors for CVD. The results highlight the importance of a public health approach towards HBP and additional CVD risk factors that takes into account the specific conditions of older individuals, especially among disadvantaged groups.

The fertility-inhibiting effect of mosquitoes: Socio-economic differences in response to the Zika crisis in Colombia.

We estimated the impact of the Zika virus outbreak on birth rates and demand for health care services in Colombia. Our analysis exploits the variation in the level of natural protection against mosquito-transmitted diseases across the country. This characteristic induced exogenous variation in Zika incidence, which allows us to construct a control group of municipalities with similar historical fertility trends but with differential exposure to the Zika crisis. We implemented a difference-in-differences model after matching, as well as synthetic control. We found a decrease in birth rates of approx. 10% in the last two quarters of 2019. The impact of the virus was similar irrespective of the women's education level, and we found no discernible impact on teenage pregnancy.