One hundred malaria attacks since birth. A longitudinal study of African children and young adults exposed to high malaria transmission.

Background: Despite significant progress in malaria control over the past twenty years, malaria remains a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality in Tropical Africa. As most patients do not consult any health facility much uncertainty persists about the true burden of the disease and the range of individual differences in susceptibility to malaria. Methods: Over a 25-years period, from 1990 to 2015, the inhabitants of Dielmo village, Senegal, an area of intense malaria transmission, have been monitored daily for their presence in the village and the occurrence of diseases. In case of fever thick blood films were systematically examined through microscopy for malaria parasites and patients received prompt diagnosis and treatment. Findings: We analysed data collected in 111 children and young adults monitored for at least 10 years (mean 17.3 years, maximum 25 years) enrolled either at birth (95 persons) or during the two first years of life. A total of 11,599 episodes of fever were documented, including 5268 malaria attacks. The maximum number of malaria attacks in a single person was 112. Three other persons suffered one hundred or more malaria attacks during follow-up. The minimum number of malaria attacks in a single person was 11. The mean numbers of malaria attacks in children reaching their 4th, 7th, and 10th birthdays were 23.0, 37.7, and 43.6 attacks since birth, respectively. Sixteen children (14.4%) suffered ten or more malaria attacks each year at ages 1-3 years, and six children (5.4%) each year at age 4-6 years. Interpretation: Long-term close monitoring shows that in highly endemic areas the malaria burden is higher than expected. Susceptibility to the disease may vary up to 10-fold, and for most children childhood is an endless history of malaria fever episodes. No other parasitic, bacterial or viral infection in human populations has such an impact on health. Funding: The Pasteur Institutes of Dakar and Paris, the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, and the French Ministry of Cooperation provided funding.

Long-Lasting Insecticide-Treated Nets Combined or Not with Indoor Residual Spraying May Not Be Sufficient to Eliminate Malaria: A Case-Control Study, Benin, West Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, despite the implementation of multiple control interventions, the prevalence of malaria infection and clinical cases remains high. The primary tool for vector control against malaria in this region is the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) combined or not with indoor residual spraying (IRS) to achieve a synergistic effect in protection. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of LLINs, with or without IRS, protected against Plasmodium falciparum infection and uncomplicated clinical cases (UCC) of malaria in Benin. A case-control study was conducted, encompassing all age groups, in the urban area of Djougou and the rural area of Cobly. A cross-sectional survey was conducted that included 2080 individuals in the urban area and 2770 individuals in the rural area. In the urban area, sleeping under LLINs did not confer significant protection against malaria infection and UCC when compared to no intervention. However, certain neighbourhoods benefited from a notable reduction in infection rates ranging from 65% to 85%. In the rural area, the use of LLINs alone, IRS alone, or their combination did not provide additional protection compared to no intervention. IRS alone and LLINs combined with IRS provided 61% and 65% protection against malaria infection, respectively, compared to LLINs alone. The effectiveness of IRS alone and LLINs combined with IRS against UCC was 52% and 54%, respectively, when compared to LLINs alone. In both urban and rural areas, the use of LLINs alone, IRS alone, and their combination did not demonstrate significant individual protection against malaria infection and clinical cases when compared to no intervention. In the conditions of this study, LLINs combined or not with IRS are not effective enough to eliminate malaria. In addition to the interventions, this study identified factors associated with malaria in Benin as housing design, neglected social groups like gender-marginalised individuals and adolescents, and socio-economic conditions acting as barriers to effective malaria prevention. Addressing these factors is crucial in order to facilitate malaria elimination efforts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Seroprevalence of IgG Antibodies Directed against Dengue, Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses and Associated Risk Factors in Madagascar, 2011 to 2013.

Arboviruses have been shown to circulate in Madagascar, including West Nile, dengue, and chikungunya viruses, though the extent of their circulation remains poorly documented. We estimated the seroprevalence of these three arboviruses in Madagascar and determined risk factors associated with seropositivity. Serum samples obtained from 1680 individuals surrounding the Sentinel Health Centers network in all regions of the country were analyzed using ELISA and hemagglutination inhibition assays for dengue, chikungunya, and West Nile viruses IgG antibodies, and multivariate logistic regression models were run. Overall, 6.5% [IC 95% 3.2-9.9] were seropositive for dengue virus, predominantly of Dengue serotype 1, 13.7% [IC 95% 6.5-20.9] for chikungunya virus, and 12.7% [IC 95% 9.0-16.5] for West Nile virus. There was no association with age, showing that dengue and chikungunya viruses were likely recently introduced. Eastern and Northern parts were more affected by dengue and chikungunya viruses, while West Nile virus seemed to circulate in all parts of the country. Dengue and chikungunya seropositivity were notably associated with high levels of vegetation, as well as frequent work in the forest, and West Nile seropositivity with the presence of cultivated areas, as well as standard of living. This analysis gives a new insight into arboviruses circulation and transmission patterns in Madagascar.

Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistant Yersinia pestis During a Pneumonic Plague Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonic plague (PP), caused by Yersinia pestis, is the most feared clinical form of plague due to its rapid lethality and potential to cause outbreaks. PP outbreaks are now rare due to antimicrobial therapy. METHODS: A PP outbreak in Madagascar involving transmission of a Y. pestis strain resistant to streptomycin, the current recommended first-line treatment in Madagascar, was retrospectively characterized using epidemiology, clinical diagnostics, molecular characterization, and animal studies. RESULTS: The outbreak occurred in February 2013 in the Faratsiho district of Madagascar and involved 22 cases, including 3 untreated fatalities. The 19 other cases participated in funeral practices for the fatal cases and fully recovered after combination antimicrobial therapy: intramuscular streptomycin followed by oral co-trimoxazole. The Y. pestis strain that circulated during this outbreak is resistant to streptomycin resulting from a spontaneous point mutation in the 30S ribosomal protein S12 (rpsL) gene. This same mutation causes streptomycin resistance in 2 unrelated Y. pestis strains, one isolated from a fatal PP case in a different region of Madagascar in 1987 and another isolated from a fatal PP case in China in 1996, documenting this mutation has occurred independently at least 3 times in Y. pestis. Laboratory experiments revealed this mutation has no detectable impact on fitness or virulence, and revertants to wild-type are rare in other species containing it, suggesting Y. pestis strains containing it could persist in the environment. CONCLUSIONS: Unique antimicrobial resistant (AMR) strains of Y. pestis continue to arise in Madagascar and can be transmitted during PP outbreaks.

Influence of Host-Related Factors and Exposure to Mosquito Bites on the Dynamics of Antibody Response to Plasmodium falciparum Antigens.

Humoral immunity to Plasmodium falciparum is acquired after repeated infections, and can lead to clinical protection. This study aimed to evaluate how human-, parasite-, and environment-related determinants can modulate the dynamics of IgG responses to Plasmodium falciparum after an infection. Individuals (n = 68, average age = 8.2 years) with uncomplicated malaria were treated with ACT and followed up for 42 days. IgG responses to P. falciparum merozoite antigens (PfMSP1, PfMSP3, PfAMA1, PfGLURP-R0), to whole schizont extract (PfSchz), and to Anopheles gSG6-P1 and Aedes Nterm-34 kDa salivary peptides were measured. Regression analyses were used to identify factors that influence the dynamics of IgG response to P. falciparum antigen between D0 and D42, including demographic and biological factors and the level of exposure to mosquito bites. The dynamics of IgG response to P. falciparum differed according to the antigen. According to multivariate analysis, IgG responses to PfSchz and to PfGLURP-R0 appear to be affected by exposure to Aedes saliva and are associated with age, parasite density, and anti-Plasmodium pre-existing immune response at study inclusion. The present work shows that human exposure to Aedes saliva may contribute, in addition to other factors, to the regulation of anti-Plasmodium immune responses during a natural infection.

Family, social and cultural determinants of long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) use in Madagascar: secondary analysis of three qualitative studies focused on children aged 5-15 years.

BACKGROUND: Although it is accepted that long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) use is an effective means to prevent malaria, children aged 5 to 15 years do not appear to be sufficiently protected in Madagascar; the malaria prevalence is highest in this age group. The purpose of this research is to summarize recent qualitative studies describing LLIN use among the Malagasy people with a focus on children aged 5-15 years. METHODS: Qualitative data from three studies on malaria conducted between 2012 and 2016 in 10 districts of Madagascar were analysed. These studies cover all malaria epidemiological profiles and 10 of the 18 existing ethnic groups in Madagascar. A thematic analysis was conducted on the collected data from semi-structured interviews, direct observation data, and informal interviews. RESULTS: A total of 192 semi-structured interviews were conducted. LLINs are generally perceived positively because they protect the health and well-being of users. However, regional representations of mosquito nets may contribute to LLIN lower use by children over 5 years of age including the association between married status and LLIN use, which leads to the refusal of unmarried young men to sleep under LLINs; the custom of covering the dead with a mosquito net, which leads to fear of LLIN use; and taboos governing sleeping spaces for siblings of opposite sexes, which leads to LLIN shortages in households. Children under 5 years of age are known to be the most vulnerable age group for acquiring malaria and, therefore, are prioritized for LLIN use when there are limited supplies in households. In contrast, children over 5 years of age, who are perceived to be at less risk for malaria, often sleep without LLINs. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions, social practices and regional beliefs regarding LLINs and vulnerability to malaria contribute to the nonuse of LLINs among children over 5 years of age in Madagascar. Modifying LLIN policies to account for these factors may increase LLIN use in this age group and reduce disease burden.

Operational Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Long-lasting Insecticidal Nets on Human-Vector Contact in an African Urban Malaria Context.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is still a major public health concern in Côte d'Ivoire despite mass distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) as a key preventive strategy. This study intended to evaluate the operational effectiveness of LLINs on the level of human-vector contact using 1 antibody-based biomarker of exposure to Anopheles in urban areas. METHODS: This cross-sectional study collected socio-demographic data and use of LLINs from 9 neighborhoods in the city of Bouaké (Côte d'Ivoire). Dry blood spots performed in children aged >6 months and adults were used to evaluate immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to the Anopheles gSG6-P1 salivary peptide. RESULTS: IgG response levels to the salivary peptide were significantly lower in individuals who declared having "always" (n = 270) slept under an LLIN compared with those who had "often" (n = 2087) and "never" (n = 88) slept under an LLIN (P < .0001). IgG response levels to gSG6-P1 between those who declared having "always" and "not always" slept under an LLIN varied according to neighborhood, socio-professional category, and age group. CONCLUSIONS: The human IgG level to this gSG6-P1 salivary peptide could be a useful tool to evaluate the actual effectiveness of LLINs and help design behavioral change interventions that are crucial for sustaining universal coverage.

School-Based Serosurveys to Assess the Validity of Using Routine Health Facility Data to Target Malaria Interventions in the Central Highlands of Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: In low-malaria-transmission areas of Madagascar, annual parasite incidence (API) from routine data has been used to target indoor residual spraying at subdistrict commune level. To assess validity of this approach, we conducted school-based serological surveys and health facility (HF) data quality assessments in 7 districts to compare API to gold-standard commune-level serological measures. METHODS: At 2 primary schools in each of 93 communes, 60 students were randomly selected with parents and teachers. Capillary blood was drawn for rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and serology. Multiplex bead-based immunoassays to detect antibodies to 5 Plasmodium falciparum antigens were conducted, and finite mixture models used to characterize seronegative and seropositive populations. Reversible catalytic models generated commune-level annual seroconversion rates (SCRs). HF register data were abstracted to assess completeness and accuracy. RESULTS: RDT positivity from 12 770 samples was 0.5%. Seroprevalence to tested antigens ranged from 17.9% (MSP-1) to 59.7% (PF13). Median commune-level SCR was 0.0108 (range, 0.001-0.075). Compared to SCRs, API identified 71% (95% confidence interval, 51%-87%) of the 30% highest-transmission communes; sensitivity declined at lower levels. Routine data accuracy did not substantially affect API performance. CONCLUSIONS: API performs reasonably well at identifying higher-transmission communes but sensitivity declined at lower transmission levels.

Human Exposure to Hantaviruses Associated with Rodents of the Murinae Subfamily, Madagascar.

We conducted a national human serologic study of a hantavirus detected in Madagascar rodents using a commercial kit and a new ELISA targeting the virus. Our results suggest a conservative estimate of 2.7% (46/1,680) IgG seroprevalence. A second single-district study using the new ELISA revealed a higher prevalence (7.2%; 10/139).

Testing bio-efficacy of insecticide-treated nets with fewer mosquitoes for enhanced malaria control.

Malaria control programs implementing Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets (LLINs) are encouraged to conduct field monitoring of nets' survival, fabric integrity and insecticidal bio-efficacy. The reference method for testing the insecticide activity of LLINs needs 100 two-to-five-day-old female mosquitoes per net, which is highly resource-intensive. We aimed at identifying an alternative protocol, using fewer mosquitos, while ensuring a precision in the main indicator of ±5 percentage points (pp). We compared different laboratory methods against the probability of the LLIN to fail the test as determined by a hierarchical Bayesian model. When using 50 mosquitoes per LLIN and considering mortality only instead of mortality or knock-down as validity criteria, the average error in the measure of the proportion of nets considered as valid was 0.40 pp. The 95% confidence interval of this value never exceed 5 pp when the number of LLIN tested was ≥40. This method slightly outperforms the current recommendations. As a conclusion, testing the bio-efficacy of LLINs with half as many mosquitoes provides a valid evaluation of the proportion of valid LLINs. This approach could increase entomology labs' testing capacity and decrease costs, with no impact in the decision process for public health purposes.

Malaria parasite clearance from patients following artemisinin-based combination therapy in Côte d'Ivoire.

INTRODUCTION: Parasite clearance is useful to detect artemisinin resistance. The aim of this study was to investigate parasite clearance in patients treated with artesunate + amodiaquine (AS + AQ) and artemether + lumefantrine (AL): the two artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) recommended in the first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: This study was conducted in Bouaké, Côte d'Ivoire, from April to June 2016. Patients aged at least 6 months with uncomplicated malaria and treated with AS + AQ or AL were hospitalized for 3 days, and follow-up assessments were performed on days 3, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, and 42. Blood smears were collected at the time of screening, pre-dose, and 6-hour intervals following the first dose of administration until two consecutive negative smears were recorded, thereafter at day 3 and follow-up visits. Parasite clearance was determined using the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network's parasite clearance estimator. The primary end points were parasite clearance rate and time. RESULTS: A total of 120 patients (57 in the AS + AQ group and 63 in the AL group) were randomized among 298 patients screened. The median parasite clearance time was 30 hours (IQR, 24-36 hours), for each ACT. The median parasite clearance rate had a slope half-life of 2.36 hours (IQR, 1.85-2.88 hours) and 2.23 hours (IQR, 1.74-2.63 hours) for AS + AQ and AL, respectively. The polymerase chain reaction-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response was 100% and 98.07% at day 42 for AS + AQ and AL, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients treated with AS + AQ and AL had cleared parasites rapidly. ACTs are still efficacious in Bouaké, Côte d'Ivoire, but continued efficacy monitoring of ACTs is needed.

Evaluating Effectiveness of Mass and Continuous Long-lasting Insecticidal Net Distributions Over Time in Madagascar: A Sentinel Surveillance Based Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: The reduction of global malaria burden over the past 15 years is much attributed to the expansion of mass distribution campaigns (MDCs) of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN). In Madagascar, two LUN MDCs were implemented and one district also benefited from a community-based continuous distribution (CB-CD). Malaria incidence dropped but eventually rebounded after a decade. METHODS: Data from a sentinel surveillance network over the 2009-2015 period was analyzed. Alerts were defined as w eekly number o f malaria cases exceeding the 90th percentile value for three consecutive weeks. Statistical analyses assessed the temporal relationship between LLIN MDCs and (i) number of malaria cases and (ii) malaria alerts detected, and (iii) the effect of a combination of MDCs and a CB-CD in Toamasina District. FINDINGS: Analyses showed an increase of 13.6 points and 21.4 points in the percentile value of weekly malaria cases during the second and the third year following the MDC of LLINs respectively. The percentage of alert-free sentinel sites was 98.2% during the first year after LLIN MDC, 56.7% during the second year and 31.5% during the third year. The number of weekly malaria cases decreased by 14% during the CB-CD in Toamasina District. In contrast, sites without continuous distribution had a 12% increase of malaria cases. INTERPRETATION: These findings support the malaria-preventive effectiveness of MDCs in Madagascar but highlight their limited duration when not followed by continuous distribution. The resulting policy implications are crucial to sustain reductions in malaria burden in high transmission settings.

Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar.

In areas where malaria epidemiology is spatially and temporally heterogeneous, human-mediated parasite importation can result in non-locally acquired clinical cases and outbreaks in low-transmission areas. Using mobility estimates derived from the mobile phone data and spatial malaria prevalence data, we identify travel routes relevant to malaria transmission in Madagascar. We find that the primary hubs of parasite importation are in a spatially connected area of the central highlands. Surprisingly, sources of these imported infections are not spatially clustered. We then related these source locations directly to clinical cases in the low-transmission area of the capital. We find that in the capital, a major sink, the primary sources of infection are along the more populated coastal areas, although these sources are seasonally variable. Our results have implications for targeting interventions at source locations to achieve local or national malaria control goals.

Mixed pneumonic plague and nosocomial MDR-bacterial infection of lung: a rare case report.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a life-threatening disease caused by the bacterium, Yersinia pestis. Madagascar is the leading country for human plague cases worldwide. Human plague is a serious disease, particularly in its septicaemic and pneumonic forms. We report a case of pneumonic plague co-infected by a MDR-Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. CASE PRESENTATION: A 24 year-old man originated from Soavinandriana, a plague focus, felt uneasy and developed high fever with chills. He started treatment by himself, by private medical care and by a traditional healer for nine days moving several times from place to place. His condition had deteriorated when he presented to a district hospital with a syndrome of dyspnea, bronchial rale and altered state of consciousness. Two days later, plague diagnosis, performed as a last resort, revealed a positive F1 antigen on rapid diagnostic test. Additional tests (pla PCR and plague serology) evidenced a Y. pestis infection. However, streptomycin treatment did not achieve a complete recovery as the course of disease was complicated by the presence of MDR-S. maltophilia in his lung. This opportunistic infection could have been favored by an immunosuppression due to Y. pestis pulmonary infection and probably been acquired during his stay at a District Hospital. He was treated with a combination of ciprofloxacin and gentamycin and recovered fully. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonic plague infection may promote another virulent or avirulent bacterial infection particularly when it is not initially suspected. However, coinfection is rarely described and its occurrence frequency is unknown. In middle or low resources areas, which is the case of most plague endemic countries, control and prevention of infections in health facilities is not optimal. Co-infection with an opportunistic pathogen agent, such as S. maltophilia, is a risk which must not be disregarded as demonstrated by this case report. When deciding of a national control strategy, it should be taken into account in the choice of the first line treatment.

The protective effectiveness of control interventions for malaria prevention: a systematic review of the literature.

Background: Thanks to a considerable increase in funding, malaria control interventions (MCI) whose efficacy had been demonstrated by controlled trials have been largely scaled up during the last decade. Nevertheless, it was not systematically investigated whether this efficacy had been preserved once deployed on the field. Therefore, we sought the literature to assess the disparities between efficacy and effectiveness and the effort to measure the protective effectiveness (PE) of MCI. Methods: The PubMed database was searched for references with keywords related to malaria, to control interventions for prevention and to study designs that allow for the measure of the PE against parasitemia or against clinical outcomes. Results: Our search retrieved 1423 references, and 162 articles were included in the review. Publications were scarce before the year 2000 but dramatically increased afterwards. Bed nets was the MCI most studied (82.1%). The study design most used was a cross-sectional study (65.4%). Two thirds (67.3%) were conducted at the district level or below, and the majority (56.8%) included only children even if the MCI didn't target only children. Not all studies demonstrated a significant PE from exposure to MCI: 60.6% of studies evaluating bed nets, 50.0% of those evaluating indoor residual spraying, and 4/8 showed an added PE of using both interventions as compared with one only; this proportion was 62.5% for intermittent preventive treatment of pregnant women, and 20.0% for domestic use of insecticides. Conclusions: This review identified numerous local findings of low, non-significant PE -or even the absence of a protective effect provided by these MCIs. The identification of such failures in the effectiveness of MCIs advocates for the investigation of the causes of the problem found. Ideal evaluations of the PE of MCIs should incorporate both a large representativeness and an evaluation of the PE stratified by subpopulations.

High-resolution infrared thermography: a new tool to assess tungiasis-associated inflammation of the skin.

BACKGROUND: Tungiasis is highly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries but remains often under diagnosed and untreated eventually leading to chronic sequels. The objective of the study was to assess whether tungiasis-associated inflammation can be detected and quantified by high-resolution infrared thermography (HRIT) and whether after removal of the parasite inflammation resolves rapidly. METHODS: Patients with tungiasis were identified through active case finding. Clinical examination, staging, and thermal imaging as well as conventional photography were performed. In exemplary cases, the embedded sandfly was extracted and regression of inflammation was assessed by thermal imaging 4 days after extraction. RESULTS: The median perilesional temperature was significantly higher than the median temperature of the affected foot (rho = 0.480, p = 0.003). Median perilesional temperature measured by high-resolution infrared thermography was positively associated with the degree of pain (rho = 0.395, p < 0.017) and semi-quantitative scores for acute (rho = 0.380, p < 0.022) and chronic (rho = 0.337, p < 0.044) clinical pathology. Four days after surgical extraction, inflammation and hyperthermia of the affected area regressed significantly (rho = 0.457, p = 0.005). In single cases, when clinical examination was difficult, lesions were identified through HRIT. CONCLUSION: We proved that HRIT is a useful tool to assess tungiasis-associated morbidity as well as regression of clinical pathology after treatment. Additionally, HRIT might help to diagnose hidden and atypical manifestations of tungiasis. Our findings, although still preliminary, suggest that HRIT could be used for a range of infectious skin diseases prevalent in the tropics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11415557, Registration date: 13 July 2011.

Prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and infrastructure for its diagnosis in Madagascar: implication for the WHO's elimination strategy.

BACKGROUND: WHO developed a global strategy to eliminate hepatitis B by 2030 and set target to treat 80% of people with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection eligible for antiviral treatment. As a first step to achieve this goal, it is essential to conduct a situation analysis that is fundamental to designing national hepatitis plans. We therefore estimated the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, and described the existing infrastructure for HBV diagnosis in Madagascar. METHODS: We conducted a stratified multi-stage serosurvey of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in adults aged ≥18 years using 28 sentinel surveillance sites located throughout the country. We obtained the list of facilities performing HBV testing from the Ministry of Health, and contacted the person responsible at each facility. RESULTS: A total of 1778 adults were recruited from the 28 study areas. The overall weighted seroprevalence of HBsAg was 6.9% (95% CI: 5.6-8.6). Populations with a low socio-economic status and those living in rural areas had a significantly higher seroprevalence of HBsAg. The ratio of facilities equipped to perform HBsAg tests per 100,000 inhabitants was 1.02 in the capital city of Antananarivo and 0.21 outside the capital. There were no facilities with the capacity to perform HBV DNA testing or transient elastography to measure liver fibrosis. There are only five hepatologists in Madagascar. CONCLUSION: Madagascar has a high-intermediate level of endemicity for HBV infection with a severely limited capacity for its diagnosis and treatment. Higher HBsAg prevalence in rural or underprivileged populations underlines the importance of a public health approach to decentralize the management of chronic HBV carriers in Madagascar by using simple and low-cost diagnostic tools.

Analysing trends and forecasting malaria epidemics in Madagascar using a sentinel surveillance network: a web-based application.

BACKGROUND: The use of a malaria early warning system (MEWS) to trigger prompt public health interventions is a key step in adding value to the epidemiological data routinely collected by sentinel surveillance systems. METHODS: This study describes a system using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of new technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from 21 sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically analysed to detect malaria trends and malaria outbreak alerts with automated feedback reports. RESULTS: Roll Back Malaria partners can, through a user-friendly web-based tool, visualize potential outbreaks and generate a forecasting model. The system already demonstrated its ability to detect malaria outbreaks in Madagascar in 2014. CONCLUSION: This approach aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments.

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

Correction: Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004827.].