ABSTRACT
The prion-like spread of protein aggregates is a leading hypothesis for the propagation of neurofibrillary lesions in the brain, including the spread of tau inclusions associated with Alzheimer's disease. The mechanisms of cellular uptake of tau seeds and subsequent nucleated polymerization of cytosolic tau are major questions in the field, and the potential for coupling between the entry and nucleation mechanisms has been little explored. We found that in primary astrocytes and neurons, endocytosis of tau seeds leads to their accumulation in lysosomes. This in turn leads to lysosomal swelling, deacidification, and recruitment of ESCRT proteins, but not Galectin-3, to the lysosomal membrane. These observations are consistent with nanoscale damage of the lysosomal membrane. Live cell imaging and STORM superresolution microscopy further show that the nucleation of cytosolic tau occurs primarily at the lysosome membrane under these conditions. These data suggest that tau seeds escape from lysosomes via nanoscale damage rather than wholesale rupture and that nucleation of cytosolic tau commences as soon as tau fibril ends emerge from the lysosomal membrane.
Subject(s)
Cytosol , Lysosomes , tau Proteins , tau Proteins/metabolism , Lysosomes/metabolism , Cytosol/metabolism , Animals , Astrocytes/metabolism , Astrocytes/pathology , Neurons/metabolism , Neurons/pathology , Humans , Intracellular Membranes/metabolism , Endocytosis , Mice , Cells, CulturedABSTRACT
Pierce's disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world's largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this situation. Here we incorporate the latest regional climate change projections into a climate-driven epidemiological model to assess the risk of PD epidemics in Europe for different levels of global warming. We found a significant increase in risk above + 2 ∘ C in the main wine-producing regions of France, Italy and Portugal, in addition to a critical tipping point above + 3 ∘ C for the possible spread of PD beyond the Mediterranean. The model identifies decreasing risk trends in Spain, as well as contrasting patterns across the continent with different velocities of risk change and epidemic growth rates. Although there is some uncertainty in model projections over time, spatial patterns of risk are consistent across different climate models. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of PD at multiple spatial scales (country, Protected Designation of Origin and vineyard), revealing where, why and when PD could become a new threat to the European wine industry.
Subject(s)
Global Warming , Plant Diseases , Vitis , Xylella , Plant Diseases/microbiology , Vitis/microbiology , Xylella/pathogenicity , Europe/epidemiology , Wine , Epidemics , Farms , Climate ChangeABSTRACT
NK-lysin is a potent antimicrobial peptide (AMP) with antimicrobial activity against bacteria, fungi, viruses, and parasites. NK-lysin is a type of granulysin, a member of the saposin-like proteins family first isolated from a pig's small intestine. In previous work, for the first time, we identified four variants of nk-lysin from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using EST sequences. In the present study, we reported and characterized two additional transcripts of NK-lysin from S. salar. Besides, we evaluated the tissue distribution of three NK-lysins from S. salar and assessed the antimicrobial, hemolytic, and immunomodulatory activities and signaling pathways of three NK-lysin-derived peptides. The synthetic peptides displayed antimicrobial activity against Piscirickettsia salmonis (LF-89) and Flavobacterium psychrophilum. These peptides induced the expression of immune genes related to innate and adaptive immune responses in vitro and in vivo. The immunomodulatory activity of the peptides involves the mitogen-activated protein kinases-mediated signaling pathway, including p38, extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2, and/or c-Jun N-terminal kinases. Besides, the peptides modulated the immune response induced by pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Our findings show that NK-lysin could be a highly effective immunostimulant or vaccine adjuvant for use in fish aquaculture.
Subject(s)
Antimicrobial Peptides , Fish Proteins , Proteolipids , Salmo salar , Animals , Antimicrobial Peptides/metabolism , Antimicrobial Peptides/pharmacology , Fish Diseases/immunology , Fish Diseases/microbiology , Fish Proteins/metabolism , Fish Proteins/pharmacology , Immunity, Innate , Proteolipids/metabolism , Proteolipids/pharmacology , Salmo salar/immunology , Signal TransductionABSTRACT
Piscirickettsiosis is the main cause of mortality in salmonids of commercial importance in Chile, which is caused by Piscirickettsia salmonis, a Gram-negative, γ-proteobacteria that can produce biofilm as one of its virulence factors. The Chilean salmon industry uses large amounts of antibiotics to control piscirickettsiosis outbreaks, which has raised concern about its environmental impact and the potential to induce antibiotic resistance. Thus, the use of phytogenic feed additives (PFA) with antibacterial activity emerges as an interesting alternative to antimicrobials. Our study describes the antimicrobial action of an Andrographis paniculate-extracted PFA on P. salmonis planktonic growth and biofilm formation. We observed complete inhibition of planktonic and biofilm growth with 500 and 400 µg/mL of PFA for P. salmonis LF-89 and EM-90-like strains, respectively. Furthermore, 500 µg/mL of PFA was bactericidal for both evaluated bacterial strains. Sub-inhibitory doses of PFA increase the transcript levels of stress (groEL), biofilm (pslD), and efflux pump (acrB) genes for both P. salmonis strains in planktonic and sessile conditions. In conclusion, our results demonstrate the antibacterial effect of PFA against P. salmonis in vitro, highlighting the potential of PFA as an alternative to control Piscirickettsiosis.
Subject(s)
Animal Feed , Biofilms , Fish Diseases , Piscirickettsia , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections , Biofilms/drug effects , Biofilms/growth & development , Piscirickettsia/drug effects , Piscirickettsia/physiology , Fish Diseases/microbiology , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections/veterinary , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections/microbiology , Animals , Animal Feed/analysis , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Dietary Supplements/analysis , Plant Extracts/pharmacology , Diet/veterinary , ChileABSTRACT
Toll-like receptor 5 (TLR5) responds to the monomeric form of flagellin and induces the MyD88-depending signaling pathway, activating proinflammatory transcription factors such as NF-κB and the consequent induction of cytokines. On the other hand, HMGB1 is a highly conserved non-histone chromosomal protein shown to interact with and activate TLR5. The present work aimed to design and characterize TLR5 agonist peptides derived from the acidic tail of Salmo salar HMGB1 based on the structural knowledge of the TLR5 surface using global molecular docking platforms. Peptide binding poses complexed on TLR5 ectodomain model from each algorithm were filtrated based on docking scoring functions and predicted theoretical binding affinity of the complex. Circular dichroism spectra were recorded for each peptide selected for synthesis. Only intrinsically disordered peptides (6W, 11W, and SsOri) were selected for experimental functional assay. The functional characterization of the peptides was performed by NF-κB activation assays, RT-qPCR gene expression assays, and Piscirickettsia salmonis challenge in SHK-1 cells. The 6W and 11W peptides increased the nuclear translation of p65 and phosphorylation. In addition, the peptides induced the expression of genes related to the TLR5 pathway activation, pro- and anti-inflammatory response, and differentiation and activation of T lymphocytes towards phenotypes such as TH1, TH17, and TH2. Finally, it was shown that the 11W peptide protects immune cells against infection with P. salmonis bacteria. Overall, the results indicate the usefulness of novel peptides as potential immunostimulants in salmonids.
Subject(s)
HMGB1 Protein , Salmo salar , Animals , Toll-Like Receptor 5/genetics , Toll-Like Receptor 5/metabolism , NF-kappa B/genetics , NF-kappa B/metabolism , Salmo salar/genetics , Salmo salar/metabolism , Molecular Docking Simulation , Peptides/pharmacology , Flagellin/pharmacologyABSTRACT
Piscirickettsiosis is the most prevalent bacterial disease affecting seawater salmon in Chilean salmon industry. Antibiotic therapy is the first alternative to counteract infections caused by Piscirickettsia salmonis. The presence of bacterial biofilms on materials commonly used in salmon farming may be critical for understanding the bacterial persistence in the environment. In the present study, the CDC Biofilm Reactor® was used to investigate the effect of sub- and over-MIC of florfenicol on both the pre-formed biofilm and the biofilm formation by P. salmonis under the antibiotic stimuli on Nylon and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) surfaces. This study demonstrated that FLO, at sub- and over-MIC doses, decreases biofilm-embedded live bacteria in the P. salmonis isolates evaluated. However, it was shown that in the P. salmonis Ps007 strain the presence of sub-MIC of FLO reduced its biofilm formation on HDPE surfaces; however, biofilm persists on Nylon surfaces. These results demonstrated that P. salmonis isolates behave differently against FLO and also, depending on the surface materials. Therefore, it remains a challenge to find an effective strategy to control the biofilm formation of P. salmonis, and certainly other marine pathogens that affect the sustainability of the Chilean salmon industry.
Subject(s)
Fish Diseases , Piscirickettsia , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections , Salmonidae , Animals , Polyethylene/pharmacology , Nylons/pharmacology , Fish Diseases/drug therapy , Fish Diseases/prevention & control , Fish Diseases/microbiology , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Salmon , Biofilms , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections/veterinary , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections/microbiologyABSTRACT
The prion-like spread of protein aggregates is a leading hypothesis for the propagation of neurofibrillary lesions in the brain, including the spread of tau inclusions associated with Alzheimer's disease. The mechanisms of cellular uptake of tau seeds and subsequent nucleated polymerization of cytosolic tau are major questions in the field, and the potential for coupling between the entry and nucleation mechanisms has been little explored. We found that in primary astrocytes, endocytosis of tau seeds leads to their accumulation in lysosomes. This in turn leads to lysosomal swelling, deacidification and recruitment of ESCRT proteins, but not Galectin-3, to the lysosomal membrane. These observations are consistent with nanoscale damage of the lysosomal membrane. Using live cell and STORM, imaging, nucleation of cytosolic tau occurs primarily at the lysosome membrane under these conditions. These data suggest that tau seeds escape from lysosomes via nanoscale damage rather than wholesale rupture, and that nucleation of cytosolic tau commences as soon as tau fibril ends emerge from the lysosomal membrane.
ABSTRACT
Piscirickettsiosis outbreaks due to Piscirickettsia salmonis occur globally in the Chilean salmon aquaculture generating significant monetary losses in the industry. P. salmonis secretes outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) which are naturally non-replicating and highly immunogenic spherical nanoparticles. P. salmonis OMVs has been shown to induce immune response in zebrafish; however, the immune response induced by these vesicles in salmonids has not been evaluated. In this study, we inoculated Atlantic salmon with 10 and 30 µg doses of P. salmonis OMVs and took samples for 12 days. qPCR analysis indicated an inflammatory response. Thus, the inflammatory genes evaluated were up- or down-regulated at several times in liver, head kidney and spleen. In addition, the liver was the organ most immune-induced, mainly in the 30 µg-dose. Interestingly, co-expression of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines was evidenced by the prominent expression of il-10 at day 1 in spleen and also in head kidney on days 3, 6 and 12, while il-10 and tgf-ß were up-regulated on days 3, 6 and 12 in liver. Importantly, we detected the production of IgM against proteins of P. salmonis in the serum collected from immunized fish after 14 days. Thus, 40 and 400 µg OMVs induced the production of highest IgM levels; however, no statistical difference in the immunoglobulin levels produced by these OMVs doses were detected. The current study provides evidence that OMVs released by P. salmonis induced a pro-inflammatory responses and IgM production in S. salar, while regulatory genes were induced in order to regulate their effects and achieve the balance of the inflammatory response.
Subject(s)
Fish Diseases , Piscirickettsia , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections , Salmo salar , Animals , Salmo salar/genetics , Interleukin-10 , Zebrafish , Piscirickettsia/physiology , Immunoglobulin M , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections/veterinaryABSTRACT
Nutritional immunity regulates the homeostasis of micronutrients such as iron, manganese, and zinc at the systemic and cellular levels, preventing the invading microorganisms from gaining access and thereby limiting their growth. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the activation of nutritional immunity in specimens of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that are intraperitoneally stimulated with both live and inactivated Piscirickettsia salmonis. The study used liver tissue and blood/plasma samples on days 3, 7, and 14 post-injections (dpi) for the analysis. Genetic material (DNA) of P. salmonis was detected in the liver tissue of fish stimulated with both live and inactivated P. salmonis at 14 dpi. Additionally, the hematocrit percentage decreased at 3 and 7 dpi in fish stimulated with live P. salmonis, unchanged in fish challenged with inactivated P. salmonis. On the other hand, plasma iron content decreased during the experimental course in fish stimulated with both live and inactivated P. salmonis, although this decrease was statistically significant only at 3 dpi. Regarding the immune-nutritional markers such as tfr1, dmt1, and ireg1 were modulated in the two experimental conditions, compared to zip8, ft-h, and hamp, which were down-regulated in fish stimulated with live and inactivated P. salmonis during the course experimental. Finally, the intracellular iron content in the liver increased at 7 and 14 dpi in fish stimulated with live and inactivated P. salmonis, while the zinc content decreased at 14 dpi under both experimental conditions. However, stimulation with live and inactivated P. salmonis did not alter the manganese content in the fish. The results suggest that nutritional immunity does not distinguish between live and inactivated P. salmonis and elicits a similar immune response. Probably, this immune mechanism would be self-activated with the detection of PAMPs, instead of a sequestration and/or competition of micronutrients by the living microorganism.
Subject(s)
Piscirickettsia , Salmo salar , Animals , Manganese , Piscirickettsia/genetics , IronABSTRACT
Background: Oxylipins are inflammatory biomarkers derived from omega-3 and-6 fatty acids implicated in inflammatory diseases but have not been studied in a genome-wide association study (GWAS). The aim of this study was to identify genetic loci associated with oxylipins and oxylipin profiles to identify biologic pathways and therapeutic targets for oxylipins. Methods: We conducted a GWAS of plasma oxylipins in 316 participants in the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY). DNA samples were genotyped using the TEDDY-T1D Exome array, and additional variants were imputed using the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) multi-ancestry reference panel. Principal components analysis of 36 plasma oxylipins was used to capture oxylipin profiles. PC1 represented linoleic acid (LA)- and alpha-linolenic acid (ALA)-related oxylipins, and PC2 represented arachidonic acid (ARA)-related oxylipins. Oxylipin PC1, PC2, and the top five loading oxylipins from each PC were used as outcomes in the GWAS (genome-wide significance: p < 5×10-8). Results: The SNP rs143070873 was associated with (p < 5×10-8) the LA-related oxylipin 9-HODE, and rs6444933 (downstream of CLDN11) was associated with the LA-related oxylipin 13 S-HODE. A locus between MIR1302-7 and LOC100131146, rs10118380 and an intronic variant in TRPM3 were associated with the ARA-related oxylipin 11-HETE. These loci are involved in inflammatory signaling cascades and interact with PLA2, an initial step to oxylipin biosynthesis. Conclusion: Genetic loci involved in inflammation and oxylipin metabolism are associated with oxylipin levels.
ABSTRACT
Philaenus spumarius L., the main vector of Xylella fastidiosa (Wells) in Europe, is a univoltine species that overwinters in the egg stage, and its nymphs emerge in late winter or spring. Predicting the time of egg hatching is essential for determining the precise times for deploying control strategies against insect pests. Here, we monitored P. spumarius eggs from oviposition to egg hatching together with the daily temperatures and relative humidities at four field locations that were located at different altitudes in central Spain. The collected data were used to build a growing degree day (GDD) model to forecast egg hatching in the Iberian Peninsula. Furthermore, the model was validated with field observations that were conducted in Spain. The model was then used as a decision-support tool to calculate the optimum timing for applying control actions against P. spumarius. Our results suggest that controlling nymphs at two different dates would target the highest percentages of nymphal populations present in the field. Our model represents a first step for predicting the emergence of nymphs and adopting timely control actions against P. spumarius. These actions could limit disease spread in areas where X. fastidiosa is present.
Subject(s)
Hemiptera , Olea , Xylella , Female , Animals , Insect Vectors , Europe , Nymph , Plant DiseasesABSTRACT
Oxylipins, pro-inflammatory and pro-resolving lipid mediators, are associated with the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and may be influenced by diet. This study aimed to develop a nutrient pattern related to oxylipin profiles and test their associations with the risk of T1D among youth. The nutrient patterns were developed with a reduced rank regression in a nested case-control study (n = 335) within the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY), a longitudinal cohort of children at risk of T1D. The oxylipin profiles (adjusted for genetic predictors) were the response variables. The nutrient patterns were tested in the case-control study (n = 69 T1D cases, 69 controls), then validated in the DAISY cohort using a joint Cox proportional hazards model (n = 1933, including 81 T1D cases). The first nutrient pattern (NP1) was characterized by low beta cryptoxanthin, flavanone, vitamin C, total sugars and iron, and high lycopene, anthocyanidins, linoleic acid and sodium. After adjusting for T1D family history, the HLA genotype, sex and race/ethnicity, NP1 was associated with a lower risk of T1D in the nested case-control study (OR: 0.44, p = 0.0126). NP1 was not associated with the risk of T1D (HR: 0.54, p-value = 0.1829) in the full DAISY cohort. Future studies are needed to confirm the nested case-control findings and investigate the modifiable factors for oxylipins.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Islets of Langerhans , Child , Adolescent , Humans , Oxylipins , Autoimmunity , Risk Factors , Case-Control Studies , NutrientsABSTRACT
The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is mainly transmitted by the meadow spittlebug Philaenus spumarius in Europe, where it has caused significant economic damage to olive and almond trees. Understanding the factors that determine disease dynamics in pathosystems that share similarities can help to design control strategies focused on minimizing transmission chains. Here, we introduce a compartmental model for X. fastidiosa-caused diseases in Europe that accounts for the main relevant epidemiological processes, including the seasonal dynamics of P. spumarius. The model was confronted with epidemiological data from the two major outbreaks of X. fastidiosa in Europe, the olive quick disease syndrome in Apulia, Italy, caused by the subspecies pauca, and the almond leaf scorch disease in Mallorca, Spain, caused by subspecies multiplex and fastidiosa. Using a Bayesian inference framework, we show how the model successfully reproduces the general field data in both diseases. In a global sensitivity analysis, the vector-to-plant and plant-to-vector transmission rates, together with the vector removal rate, were the most influential parameters in determining the time of the infectious host population peak, the incidence peak, and the final number of dead hosts. We also used our model to check different vector-based control strategies, showing that a joint strategy focused on increasing the rate of vector removal while lowering the number of annual newborn vectors is optimal for disease control. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
Subject(s)
Olea , Prunus dulcis , Xylella , Animals , Epidemiological Models , Seasons , Bayes Theorem , Plant Diseases/microbiology , Insect Vectors/microbiology , Olea/microbiologyABSTRACT
Over 6.37 million people have died from COVID-19 worldwide, but factors influencing COVID-19-related mortality remain understudied. We aimed to describe and identify risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in the Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine (CCPM) Biobank using integrated data sources, including Electronic Health Records (EHRs). We calculated cause-specific mortality and case-fatality rates for COVID-19 and common pre-existing health conditions defined by diagnostic phecodes and encounters in EHRs. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses of the association between each pre-existing condition and COVID-19 mortality. Of the 155,859 Biobank participants enrolled as of July 2022, 20,797 had been diagnosed with COVID-19. Of 5334 Biobank participants who had died, 190 were attributed to COVID-19. The case-fatality rate was 0.91% and the COVID-19 mortality rate was 122 per 100,000 persons. The odds of dying from COVID-19 were significantly increased among older men, and those with 14 of the 61 pre-existing conditions tested, including hypertensive chronic kidney disease (OR: 10.14, 95% CI: 5.48, 19.16) and type 2 diabetes with renal manifestations (OR: 5.59, 95% CI: 3.42, 8.97). Male patients who are older and have pre-existing kidney diseases may be at higher risk for death from COVID-19 and may require special care.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Humans , Male , Aged , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Colorado/epidemiology , Biological Specimen Banks , Precision Medicine , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
Public health is facing a new challenge due to the increased bacterial resistance to most of the conventional antibacterial agents. Inadequate use of antibiotics in the Chilean aquaculture industry leads to the generation of multidrug resistance bacteria. Many fish pathogenic bacteria produce biofilm upon various sources of stress such as antibiotics, which provides several survival advantages for the bacterial life in community and can constitute a reservoir of pathogens in the marine environment. Being florfenicol a broad-spectrum antibiotic commonly used to treat infections in aquaculture, the aim of this study was to assess whether this antibiotic modulates in vitro the biofilm formation in several isolates of Piscirickettsia salmonis. Standard antibiotic-micro broth 96-flat well plates were used to determinate the minimal inhibitory concentration of florfenicol in eight different P. salmonis isolates. In vitro findings, with P. salmonis growing in the presence and absence of the antibiotic, exhibited a statistically significantly increase (p < .05) in biofilm formation in all the bacterial isolates cultivated with sub-MIC (defined as the half of the minimal inhibitory concentration in the presence of antibiotic) of florfenicol compared with controls (antibiotic-free broth). In conclusion, sub-MIC of florfenicol induced an increased biofilm formation in all P. salmonis isolates tested.
Subject(s)
Fish Diseases , Piscirickettsia , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections , Thiamphenicol , Animals , Fish Diseases/microbiology , Thiamphenicol/pharmacology , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Biofilms , Piscirickettsiaceae Infections/microbiologyABSTRACT
Given the differential risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in offspring of affected fathers versus affected mothers and our observation that T1D cases have differential DNA methylation near the imprinted DLGAP2 gene compared to controls, we examined whether methylation near DLGAP2 mediates the association between T1D family history and T1D risk. In a nested case-control study of 87 T1D cases and 87 controls from the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young, we conducted causal mediation analyses at 12 DLGAP2 region CpGs to decompose the effect of family history on T1D risk into indirect and direct effects. These effects were estimated from two regression models adjusted for the human leukocyte antigen DR3/4 genotype: a linear regression of family history on methylation (mediator model) and a logistic regression of family history and methylation on T1D (outcome model). For 8 of the 12 CpGs, we identified a significant interaction between T1D family history and methylation on T1D risk. Accounting for this interaction, we found that the increased risk of T1D for children with affected mothers compared to those with no family history was mediated through differences in methylation at two CpGs (cg27351978, cg00565786) in the DLGAP2 region, as demonstrated by a significant pure natural indirect effect (odds ratio (OR) = 1.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-3.71) and nonsignificant total natural direct effect (OR = 1.65, 95% CI: 0.16-16.62) (for cg00565786). In contrast, the increased risk of T1D for children with an affected father or sibling was not explained by DNA methylation changes at these CpGs. Results were similar for cg27351978 and robust in sensitivity analyses. Lastly, we found that DNA methylation in the DLGAP2 region was associated (P<0:05) with gene expression of nearby protein-coding genes DLGAP2, ARHGEF10, ZNF596, and ERICH1. Results indicate that the maternal protective effect conferred through exposure to T1D in utero may operate through changes to DNA methylation that have functional downstream consequences.
Subject(s)
DNA Methylation , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/genetics , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/epidemiology , Female , Male , Case-Control Studies , Child , Child, Preschool , Adolescent , GTPase-Activating Proteins/genetics , CpG Islands , Risk Factors , Nerve Tissue ProteinsABSTRACT
The vector-borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is responsible for Pierce's disease (PD), a lethal grapevine disease that originated in the Americas. The international plant trade is expanding the geographic range of this pathogen, posing a new threat to viticulture worldwide. To assess the potential incidence of PD, we have built a dynamic epidemiological model based on the response of 36 grapevine varieties to the pathogen in inoculation assays and on the vectors' distribution when this information is available. Key temperature-driven epidemiological processes, such as PD symptom development and recovery, are mechanistically modelled. Integrating into the model high-resolution spatiotemporal climatic data from 1981 onward and different infectivity (R0) scenarios, we show how the main wine-producing areas thrive mostly in non-risk, transient, or epidemic-risk zones with potentially low growth rates in PD incidence. Epidemic-risk zones with moderate to high growth rates are currently marginal outside the US. However, a global expansion of epidemic-risk zones coupled with small increments in the disease growth rate is projected for 2050. Our study globally downscales the risk of PD establishment while highlighting the importance of considering climate variability, vector distribution, and an invasive criterion as factors to obtain better PD risk maps.
Subject(s)
Vitis , Xylella , Vitis/microbiology , Plant Diseases/microbiology , Temperature , Disease SusceptibilityABSTRACT
Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called basic reproduction number, R_{0}, that measures the number of secondary infections produced by an initial infected individual in a fully susceptible population. Some methods have been developed to allow the direct computation of this quantity provided that some conditions are fulfilled, such that the model has a prepandemic disease-free equilibrium state. This condition is fulfilled only when the populations are stationary. In the case of vector-borne diseases, this implies that the vector birth and death rates need to be balanced. This is not fulfilled in many realistic cases in which the vector population grows or decreases. Here we develop a vector-borne epidemic model with growing and decaying vector populations that in the long term converge to an asymptotic stationary state, and study the conditions under which the standard methods to compute R_{0} work and discuss an alternative when they fail. We also show that growing vector populations produce a delay in the epidemic dynamics when compared to the case of the stationary vector population. Finally, we discuss the conditions under which the model can be reduced to the Susceptible, Infectious, and/or Recovered (SIR) model with fewer compartments and parameters, which helps in solving the problem of parameter unidentifiability of many vector-borne epidemic models.
ABSTRACT
Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on non-spatial descriptions in which space is homogenized and parasite mobility is not explicitly accounted for. However, in realistic scenarios epidemic transmission is conditioned by the spatial distribution of hosts and the parasites' mobility patterns, calling for an explicit description of space. In this work, we develop a spatially explicit individual-based model to study disease transmission by waterborne parasites in sessile marine populations. We investigate the impact of spatial disease transmission through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analysis. Specifically, the effects of parasite mobility into the epidemic threshold and the temporal progression of the epidemic are assessed. We show that larger values of pathogen mobility imply more severe epidemics, as the number of infections increases, and shorter timescales to extinction. An analytical expression for the basic reproduction number of the spatial model, R ~ 0 , is derived as a function of the non-spatial counterpart, R 0, which characterizes a transition between a disease-free and a propagation phase, in which the disease propagates over a large fraction of the system.
ABSTRACT
The decreasing seawater pH trend associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is an issue of concern due to possible negative consequences for marine organisms, especially calcifiers. Globally, coastal areas represent important transitional land-ocean zones with complex interactions between biological, physical and chemical processes. Here, we evaluated the pH variability at two sites in the coastal area of the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean). High resolution pH data along with temperature, salinity, and also dissolved oxygen were obtained with autonomous sensors from 2018 to 2021 in order to determine the temporal pH variability and the principal drivers involved. By using environmental datasets of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen, Recurrent Neural Networks were trained to predict pH and fill data gaps. Longer environmental time series (2012-2021) were used to obtain the pH trend using reconstructed data. The best predictions show a rate of [Formula: see text] pH units year[Formula: see text], which is in good agreement with other observations of pH rates in coastal areas. The methodology presented here opens the possibility to obtain pH trends when only limited pH observations are available, if other variables are accessible. Potentially, this could be a way to reliably fill the unavoidable gaps present in time series data provided by sensors.