A Review of Personalised Cardiac Computational Modelling Using Electroanatomical Mapping Data.

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have gradually matured during the past few decades and are now being personalised to provide patient-specific therapy guidance for improving suboptimal treatment outcomes. The predictive features of these personalised electrophysiology models hold the promise of providing optimal treatment planning, which is currently limited in the clinic owing to reliance on a population-based or average patient approach. The generation of a personalised electrophysiology model entails a sequence of steps for which a range of activation mapping, calibration methods and therapy simulation pipelines have been suggested. However, the optimal methods that can potentially constitute a clinically relevant in silico treatment are still being investigated and face limitations, such as uncertainty of electroanatomical data recordings, generation and calibration of models within clinical timelines and requirements to validate or benchmark the recovered tissue parameters. This paper is aimed at reporting techniques on the personalisation of cardiac computational models, with a focus on calibrating cardiac tissue conductivity based on electroanatomical mapping data.

A three-dimensional left atrial motion estimation from retrospective gated computed tomography: application in heart failure patients with atrial fibrillation.

Background: A reduced left atrial (LA) strain correlates with the presence of atrial fibrillation (AF). Conventional atrial strain analysis uses two-dimensional (2D) imaging, which is, however, limited by atrial foreshortening and an underestimation of through-plane motion. Retrospective gated computed tomography (RGCT) produces high-fidelity three-dimensional (3D) images of the cardiac anatomy throughout the cardiac cycle that can be used for estimating 3D mechanics. Its feasibility for LA strain measurement, however, is understudied. Aim: The aim of this study is to develop and apply a novel workflow to estimate 3D LA motion and calculate the strain from RGCT imaging. The utility of global and regional strains to separate heart failure in patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with and without AF is investigated. Methods: A cohort of 30 HFrEF patients with (n = 9) and without (n = 21) AF underwent RGCT prior to cardiac resynchronisation therapy. The temporal sparse free form deformation image registration method was optimised for LA feature tracking in RGCT images and used to estimate 3D LA endocardial motion. The area and fibre reservoir strains were calculated over the LA body. Universal atrial coordinates and a human atrial fibre atlas enabled the regional strain calculation and the fibre strain calculation along the local myofibre orientation, respectively. Results: It was found that global reservoir strains were significantly reduced in the HFrEF + AF group patients compared with the HFrEF-only group patients (area strain: 11.2 ± 4.8% vs. 25.3 ± 12.6%, P = 0.001; fibre strain: 4.5 ± 2.0% vs. 15.2 ± 8.8%, P = 0.001), with HFrEF + AF patients having a greater regional reservoir strain dyssynchrony. All regional reservoir strains were reduced in the HFrEF + AF patient group, in whom the inferior wall strains exhibited the most significant differences. The global reservoir fibre strain and LA volume + posterior wall reservoir fibre strain exceeded LA volume alone and 2D global longitudinal strain (GLS) for AF classification (area-under-the-curve: global reservoir fibre strain: 0.94 ± 0.02, LA volume + posterior wall reservoir fibre strain: 0.95 ± 0.02, LA volume: 0.89 ± 0.03, 2D GLS: 0.90 ± 0.03). Conclusion: RGCT enables 3D LA motion estimation and strain calculation that outperforms 2D strain metrics and LA enlargement for AF classification. Differences in regional LA strain could reflect regional myocardial properties such as atrial fibrosis burden.

Spatial and temporal relationship between focal and rotational activations and their relationship to structural remodeling in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Focal and rotational activations have been demonstrated in atrial fibrillation (AF), but their relationship to each other and to structural remodeling remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship of focal and rotational activations to underlying low-voltage zones (LVZs) (<0.5 mV) and to determine whether there was a temporal (≤500 ms) and spatial (≤12 mm) relationship between these activations. METHODS: Patients undergoing catheter ablation for persistent AF were included. All patients underwent pulmonary vein isolation. Unipolar signals were collected to identify focal and rotational activations using a wavefront propagation algorithm. RESULTS: In 40 patients, 105 activations were identified (57 [54.3%] focal; 48 [45.7%] rotational). Rotational activations were co-localized to LVZs (35/48 [72.9%]) whereas focal activations were not (11/57 in LVZ [19.3%]; P <.001). The proportion of the left atrium occupied by LVZs predicted rotational activations occurrence (area under the curve 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00; P <.001). In patients with a relatively healthy atrium, in which the atrium consisted of ≤15% LVZs, only focal activations were identified. Thirty-two of the 35 rotational activations (91.4%) located in LVZs also showed a temporal and spatial relationship to a focal activation. The presence of a LVZ within 12 mm of the focal activation was a strong predictor for whether a paired rotational activation would also occur in that vicinity. CONCLUSION: Rotational activations are largely confined to areas of structural remodeling and have a clear spatial and temporal relationship with focal activations suggesting they are dependent on them. These novel mechanistic observations outline a plausible model for patient-specific mechanisms maintaining AF.

High Prevalence of New Clinically Significant Findings in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Unknown Source Evaluated by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

BACKGROUND: Embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS) accounts for 1 in 6 ischemic strokes. Current guidelines do not recommend routine cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging in ESUS, and beyond the identification of cardioembolic sources, there are no data assessing new clinical findings from CMR in ESUS. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of new cardiac and noncardiac findings and to determine their impact on clinical care in patients with ESUS. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this prospective, multicenter, observational study, CMR imaging was performed within 3 months of ESUS. All scans were reported according to standard clinical practice. A new clinical finding was defined as one not previously identified through prior clinical evaluation. A clinically significant finding was defined as one resulting in further investigation, follow-up, or treatment. A change in patient care was defined as initiation of medical, interventional, surgical, or palliative care. From 102 patients recruited, 96 underwent CMR imaging. One or more new clinical findings were observed in 59 patients (61%). New findings were clinically significant in 48 (81%) of these patients. Of 40 patients with a new clinically significant cardiac finding, 21 (53%) experienced a change in care (medical therapy, n=15; interventional/surgical procedure, n=6). In 12 patients with a new clinically significant extracardiac finding, 6 (50%) experienced a change in care (medical therapy, n=4; palliative care, n=2). CONCLUSIONS: CMR imaging identifies new clinically significant cardiac and noncardiac findings in half of patients with recent ESUS. Advanced cardiovascular screening should be considered in patients with ESUS. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04555538.

Constructing bilayer and volumetric atrial models at scale.

To enable large in silico trials and personalized model predictions on clinical timescales, it is imperative that models can be constructed quickly and reproducibly. First, we aimed to overcome the challenges of constructing cardiac models at scale through developing a robust, open-source pipeline for bilayer and volumetric atrial models. Second, we aimed to investigate the effects of fibres, fibrosis and model representation on fibrillatory dynamics. To construct bilayer and volumetric models, we extended our previously developed coordinate system to incorporate transmurality, atrial regions and fibres (rule-based or data driven diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)). We created a cohort of 1000 biatrial bilayer and volumetric models derived from computed tomography (CT) data, as well as models from MRI, and electroanatomical mapping. Fibrillatory dynamics diverged between bilayer and volumetric simulations across the CT cohort (correlation coefficient for phase singularity maps: left atrial (LA) 0.27 ± 0.19, right atrial (RA) 0.41 ± 0.14). Adding fibrotic remodelling stabilized re-entries and reduced the impact of model type (LA: 0.52 ± 0.20, RA: 0.36 ± 0.18). The choice of fibre field has a small effect on paced activation data (less than 12 ms), but a larger effect on fibrillatory dynamics. Overall, we developed an open-source user-friendly pipeline for generating atrial models from imaging or electroanatomical mapping data enabling in silico clinical trials at scale (https://github.com/pcmlab/atrialmtk).

AF and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Background: There are conflicting data on whether new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) is independently associated with poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. This study represents the largest dataset curated by manual chart review comparing clinical outcomes between patients with sinus rhythm, pre-existing AF, and new-onset AF. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to assess patient outcomes in COVID-19 patients with sinus rhythm, pre-existing AF, and new-onset AF. The secondary aim was to evaluate predictors of new-onset AF in patients with COVID-19 infection. Methods: This was a single-center retrospective study of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 admitted between March and September 2020. Patient demographic data, medical history, and clinical outcome data were manually collected. Adjusted comparisons were performed following propensity score matching between those with pre-existing or new-onset AF and those without AF. Results: The study population comprised of 1241 patients. A total of 94 (7.6%) patients had pre-existing AF and 42 (3.4%) patients developed new-onset AF. New-onset AF was associated with increased in-hospital mortality before (odds ratio [OR] 3.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78-7.06, P < .005) and after (OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.01-7.77, P < .005) propensity score matching compared with the no-AF group. However, pre-existing AF was not independently associated with in-hospital mortality compared with patients with no AF (postmatching OR: 1.13, 95% CI 0.57-2.21, P = .732). Conclusion: New-onset AF, but not pre-existing AF, was independently associated with elevated mortality in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This observation highlights the need for careful monitoring of COVID-19 patients with new-onset AF. Further research is needed to explain the mechanistic relationship between new-onset AF and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

Evaluation of an open-source pipeline to create patient-specific left atrial models: A reproducibility study.

This work presents an open-source software pipeline to create patient-specific left atrial models with fibre orientations and a fibrDEFAULTosis map, suitable for electrophysiology simulations, and quantifies the intra and inter observer reproducibility of the model creation. The semi-automatic pipeline takes as input a contrast enhanced magnetic resonance angiogram, and a late gadolinium enhanced (LGE) contrast magnetic resonance (CMR). Five operators were allocated 20 cases each from a set of 50 CMR datasets to create a total of 100 models to evaluate inter and intra-operator variability. Each output model consisted of: (1) a labelled surface mesh open at the pulmonary veins and mitral valve, (2) fibre orientations mapped from a diffusion tensor MRI (DTMRI) human atlas, (3) fibrosis map extracted from the LGE-CMR scan, and (4) simulation of local activation time (LAT) and phase singularity (PS) mapping. Reproducibility in our pipeline was evaluated by comparing agreement in shape of the output meshes, fibrosis distribution in the left atrial body, and fibre orientations. Reproducibility in simulations outputs was evaluated in the LAT maps by comparing the total activation times, and the mean conduction velocity (CV). PS maps were compared with the structural similarity index measure (SSIM). The users processed in total 60 cases for inter and 40 cases for intra-operator variability. Our workflow allows a single model to be created in 16.72 ± 12.25 min. Similarity was measured with shape, percentage of fibres oriented in the same direction, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for the fibrosis calculation. Shape differed noticeably only with users' selection of the mitral valve and the length of the pulmonary veins from the ostia to the distal end; fibrosis agreement was high, with ICC of 0.909 (inter) and 0.999 (intra); fibre orientation agreement was high with 60.63% (inter) and 71.77% (intra). The LAT showed good agreement, where the median ± IQR of the absolute difference of the total activation times was 2.02 ± 2.45 ms for inter, and 1.37 ± 2.45 ms for intra. Also, the average ± sd of the mean CV difference was -0.00404 ± 0.0155 m/s for inter, and 0.0021 ± 0.0115 m/s for intra. Finally, the PS maps showed a moderately good agreement in SSIM for inter and intra, where the mean ± sd SSIM for inter and intra were 0.648 ± 0.21 and 0.608 ± 0.15, respectively. Although we found notable differences in the models, as a consequence of user input, our tests show that the uncertainty caused by both inter and intra-operator variability is comparable with uncertainty due to estimated fibres, and image resolution accuracy of segmentation tools.

In Atrial Fibrillation, Omnipolar Voltage Maps More Accurately Delineate Scar Than Bipolar Voltage Maps.

BACKGROUND: Optimal method for voltage assessment in AF remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated different methods for assessing atrial voltage and their accuracy in identifying pulmonary vein reconnection sites (PVRSs) in atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: Patients with persistent AF undergoing ablation were included. De novo procedures: voltage assessment in AF with omnipolar voltage (OV) and bipolar voltage (BV) methodology and BV assessment in sinus rhythm (SR). Activation vector and fractionation maps were reviewed at voltage discrepancy sites on OV and BV maps in AF. AF voltage maps were compared with SR BV maps. Repeat ablation procedures: OV and BV maps in AF were compared to detect gaps in wide area circumferential ablation (WACA) lines that correlated with PVRS. RESULTS: Forty patients were included: 20 de novo and 20 repeat procedures. De novo procedure: OV vs BV maps in AF; average voltage 0.55 ± 0.18 mV vs 0.38 ± 0.12 mV; P = 0.002, voltage difference of 0.20 ± 0.07 mV; P = 0.003 at coregistered points and proportion of left atrium (LA) area occupied by low-voltage zones (LVZs) was smaller on OV maps (42.4% ± 12.8% OV vs 66.7% ± 12.7% BV; P < 0.001). LVZs identified on BV maps and not on OV maps correlated frequently to wavefront collision and fractionation sites (94.7%). OV AF maps agreed better with BV SR maps (voltage difference at coregistered points 0.09 ± 0.03 mV; P = 0.24) unlike BV AF maps (0.17 ± 0.07 mV, P = 0.002). Repeat ablation procedure: OV was superior in identifying WACA line gaps that correlated with PVRS than BV maps (area under the curve = 0.89, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: OV AF maps improve voltage assessment by overcoming the impact of wavefront collision and fractionation. OV AF maps correlate better with BV maps in SR and more accurately delineate gaps on WACA lines at PVRS.

Atrial fibrillation ablation outcome prediction with a machine learning fusion framework incorporating cardiac computed tomography.

BACKGROUND: Structural changes in the left atrium (LA) modestly predict outcomes in patients undergoing catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF). Machine learning (ML) is a promising approach to personalize AF management strategies and improve predictive risk models after catheter ablation by integrating atrial geometry from cardiac computed tomography (CT) scans and patient-specific clinical data. We hypothesized that ML approaches based on a patient's specific data can identify responders to AF ablation. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing AF ablation, who had preprocedural CT scans, demographics, and 1-year follow-up data, were included in the study for a retrospective analysis. The inputs of models were CT-derived morphological features from left atrial segmentation (including the shape, volume of the LA, LA appendage, and pulmonary vein ostia) along with deep features learned directly from raw CT images, and clinical data. These were merged intelligently in a framework to learn their individual importance and produce the optimal classification. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-one patients (64.2 ± 10.6 years, 69% male, 40% paroxysmal AF) were analyzed. Post 10-fold nested cross-validation, the model trained to intelligently merge and learn appropriate weights for clinical, morphological, and imaging data (AUC 0.821) outperformed those trained solely on clinical data (AUC 0.626), morphological (AUC 0.659), or imaging data (AUC 0.764). CONCLUSION: Our ML approach provides an end-to-end automated technique to predict AF ablation outcomes using deep learning from CT images, derived structural properties of LA, augmented by incorporation of clinical data in a merged ML framework. This can help develop personalized strategies for patient selection in invasive management of AF.

Fiber Organization has Little Effect on Electrical Activation Patterns during Focal Arrhythmias in the Left Atrium.

Over the past two decades there has been a steady trend towards the development of realistic models of cardiac conduction with increasing levels of detail. However, making models more realistic complicates their personalization and use in clinical practice due to limited availability of tissue and cellular scale data. One such limitation is obtaining information about myocardial fiber organization in the clinical setting. In this study, we investigated a chimeric model of the left atrium utilizing clinically derived patient-specific atrial geometry and a realistic, yet foreign for a given patient fiber organization. We discovered that even significant variability of fiber organization had a relatively small effect on the spatio-temporal activation pattern during regular pacing. For a given pacing site, the activation maps were very similar across all fiber organizations tested.

Quantifying the impact of shape uncertainty on predicted arrhythmias.

BACKGROUND: Personalised computer models are increasingly used to diagnose cardiac arrhythmias and tailor treatment. Patient-specific models of the left atrium are often derived from pre-procedural imaging of anatomy and fibrosis. These images contain noise that can affect simulation predictions. There are few computationally tractable methods for propagating uncertainties from images to clinical predictions. METHOD: We describe the left atrium anatomy using our Bayesian shape model that captures anatomical uncertainty in medical images and has been validated on 63 independent clinical images. This algorithm describes the left atrium anatomy using Nmodes=15 principal components, capturing 95% of the shape variance and calculated from 70 clinical cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images. Latent variables encode shape uncertainty: we evaluate their posterior distribution for each new anatomy. We assume a normally distributed prior. We use the unscented transform to sample from the posterior shape distribution. For each sample, we assign the local material properties of the tissue using the projection of late gadolinium enhancement CMR (LGE-CMR) onto the anatomy to estimate local fibrosis. To test which activation patterns an atrium can sustain, we perform an arrhythmia simulation for each sample. We consider 34 possible outcomes (31 macro-re-entries, functional re-entry, atrial fibrillation, and non-sustained arrhythmia). For each sample, we determine the outcome by comparing pre- and post-ablation activation patterns following a cross-field stimulus. RESULTS: We create patient-specific atrial electrophysiology models of ten patients. We validate the mean and standard deviation maps from the unscented transform with the same statistics obtained with 12,000 Monte Carlo (ground truth) samples. We found discrepancies <3% and <2% for the mean and standard deviation for fibrosis burden and activation time, respectively. For each patient case, we then compare the predicted outcome from a model built on the clinical data (deterministic approach) with the probability distribution obtained from the simulated samples. We found that the deterministic approach did not predict the most likely outcome in 80% of the cases. Finally, we estimate the influence of each source of uncertainty independently. Fixing the anatomy to the posterior mean and maintaining uncertainty in fibrosis reduced the prediction of self-terminating arrhythmias from ≃14% to ≃7%. Keeping the fibrosis fixed to the sample mean while retaining uncertainty in shape decreased the prediction of substrate-driven arrhythmias from ≃33% to ≃18% and increased the prediction of macro-re-entries from ≃54% to ≃68%. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a novel method for propagating shape uncertainty in atrial models through to uncertainty in numerical simulations. The algorithm takes advantage of the unscented transform to compute the output distribution of the outcomes. We validated the unscented transform as a viable sampling strategy to deal with anatomy uncertainty. We then showed that the prediction computed with a deterministic model does not always coincide with the most likely outcome. Finally, we found that shape uncertainty affects the predictions of macro-re-entries, while fibrosis uncertainty affects the predictions of functional re-entries.

Fiber Organization Has Little Effect on Electrical Activation Patterns During Focal Arrhythmias in the Left Atrium.

Over the past two decades there has been a steady trend towards the development of realistic models of cardiac conduction with increasing levels of detail. However, making models more realistic complicates their personalization and use in clinical practice due to limited availability of tissue and cellular scale data. One such limitation is obtaining information about myocardial fiber organization in the clinical setting. In this study, we investigated a chimeric model of the left atrium utilizing clinically derived patient-specific atrial geometry and a realistic, yet foreign for a given patient fiber organization. We discovered that even significant variability of fiber organization had a relatively small effect on the spatio-temporal activation pattern during regular pacing. For a given pacing site, the activation maps were very similar across all fiber organizations tested.

Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds.

Models of electrical excitation and recovery in the heart have become increasingly detailed, but have yet to be used routinely in the clinical setting to guide personalized intervention in patients. One of the main challenges is calibrating models from the limited measurements that can be made in a patient during a standard clinical procedure. In this work, we propose a novel framework for the probabilistic calibration of electrophysiology parameters on the left atrium of the heart using local measurements of cardiac excitability. Parameter fields are represented as Gaussian processes on manifolds and are linked to measurements via surrogate functions that map from local parameter values to measurements. The posterior distribution of parameter fields is then obtained. We show that our method can recover parameter fields used to generate localised synthetic measurements of effective refractory period. Our methodology is applicable to other measurement types collected with clinical protocols, and more generally for calibration where model parameters vary over a manifold.

A personalized real-time virtual model of whole heart electrophysiology.

Computer models capable of representing the intrinsic personal electrophysiology (EP) of the heart in silico are termed virtual heart technologies. When anatomy and EP are tailored to individual patients within the model, such technologies are promising clinical and industrial tools. Regardless of their vast potential, few virtual technologies simulating the entire organ-scale EP of all four-chambers of the heart have been reported and widespread clinical use is limited due to high computational costs and difficulty in validation. We thus report on the development of a novel virtual technology representing the electrophysiology of all four-chambers of the heart aiming to overcome these limitations. In our previous work, a model of ventricular EP embedded in a torso was constructed from clinical magnetic resonance image (MRI) data and personalized according to the measured 12 lead electrocardiogram (ECG) of a single subject under normal sinus rhythm. This model is then expanded upon to include whole heart EP and a detailed representation of the His-Purkinje system (HPS). To test the capacities of the personalized virtual heart technology to replicate standard clinical morphological ECG features under such conditions, bundle branch blocks within both the right and the left ventricles under two different conduction velocity settings are modeled alongside sinus rhythm. To ensure clinical viability, model generation was completely automated and simulations were performed using an efficient real-time cardiac EP simulator. Close correspondence between the measured and simulated 12 lead ECG was observed under normal sinus conditions and all simulated bundle branch blocks manifested relevant clinical morphological features.

The inspection paradox: An important consideration in the evaluation of rotor lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation.

Background and Objective: Renewal theory is a statistical approach to model the formation and destruction of phase singularities (PS), which occur at the pivots of spiral waves. A common issue arising during observation of renewal processes is an inspection paradox, due to oversampling of longer events. The objective of this study was to characterise the effect of a potential inspection paradox on the perception of PS lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation. Methods: A multisystem, multi-modality study was performed, examining computational simulations (Aliev-Panfilov (APV) model, Courtmanche-Nattel model), experimentally acquired optical mapping Atrial and Ventricular Fibrillation (AF/VF) data, and clinically acquired human AF and VF. Distributions of all PS lifetimes across full epochs of AF, VF, or computational simulations, were compared with distributions formed from lifetimes of PS existing at 10,000 simulated commencement timepoints. Results: In all systems, an inspection paradox led towards oversampling of PS with longer lifetimes. In APV computational simulations there was a mean PS lifetime shift of +84.9% (95% CI, ± 0.3%) (p < 0.001 for observed vs overall), in Courtmanche-Nattel simulations of AF +692.9% (95% CI, ±57.7%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat AF +374.6% (95% CI, ± 88.5%) (p = 0.052), in human AF mapped with basket catheters +129.2% (95% CI, ±4.1%) (p < 0.05), human AF-HD grid catheters 150.8% (95% CI, ± 9.0%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat VF +171.3% (95% CI, ±15.6%) (p < 0.001), in human epicardial VF 153.5% (95% CI, ±15.7%) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Visual inspection of phase movies has the potential to systematically oversample longer lasting PS, due to an inspection paradox. An inspection paradox is minimised by consideration of the overall distribution of PS lifetimes.

Atrial conduction velocity mapping: clinical tools, algorithms and approaches for understanding the arrhythmogenic substrate.

Characterizing patient-specific atrial conduction properties is important for understanding arrhythmia drivers, for predicting potential arrhythmia pathways, and for personalising treatment approaches. One metric that characterizes the health of the myocardial substrate is atrial conduction velocity, which describes the speed and direction of propagation of the electrical wavefront through the myocardium. Atrial conduction velocity mapping algorithms are under continuous development in research laboratories and in industry. In this review article, we give a broad overview of different categories of currently published methods for calculating CV, and give insight into their different advantages and disadvantages overall. We classify techniques into local, global, and inverse methods, and discuss these techniques with respect to their faithfulness to the biophysics, incorporation of uncertainty quantification, and their ability to take account of the atrial manifold.

Atrial CARdiac Magnetic resonance imaging in patients with embolic stroke of unknown source without documented Atrial Fibrillation (CARM-AF): Study design and clinical protocol.

Background: Initiation of anticoagulation therapy in ischemic stroke patients is contingent on a clinical diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF). Results from previous studies suggest thromboembolic risk may predate clinical manifestations of AF. Early identification of this cohort of patients may allow early initiation of anticoagulation and reduce the risk of secondary stroke. Objective: This study aims to produce a substrate-based predictive model using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) and baseline noninvasive electrocardiographic investigations to improve the identification of patients at risk of future thromboembolism. Methods: CARM-AF is a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study. Ninety-two patients will be recruited following an embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS) and undergo atrial CMR followed by insertion of an implantable loop recorder (ILR) as per routine clinical care within 3 months of index stroke. Remote ILR follow-up will be used to allocate patients to a study or control group determined by the presence or absence of AF as defined by ILR monitoring. Results: Baseline data collection, noninvasive electrocardiographic data analysis, and imaging postprocessing will be performed at the time of enrollment. Primary analysis will be performed following 12 months of continuous ILR monitoring, with interim and delayed analyses performed at 6 months and 2 and 3 years, respectively. Conclusion: The CARM-AF Study will use atrial structural and electrocardiographic metrics to identify patients with AF, or at high risk of developing AF, who may benefit from early initiation of anticoagulation.

Detection of focal source and arrhythmogenic substrate from body surface potentials to guide atrial fibrillation ablation.

Focal sources (FS) are believed to be important triggers and a perpetuation mechanism for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). Detecting FS and determining AF sustainability in atrial tissue can help guide ablation targeting. We hypothesized that sustained rotors during FS-driven episodes indicate an arrhythmogenic substrate for sustained AF, and that non-invasive electrical recordings, like electrocardiograms (ECGs) or body surface potential maps (BSPMs), could be used to detect FS and AF sustainability. Computer simulations were performed on five bi-atrial geometries. FS were induced by pacing at cycle lengths of 120-270 ms from 32 atrial sites and four pulmonary veins. Self-sustained reentrant activities were also initiated around the same 32 atrial sites with inexcitable cores of radii of 0, 0.5 and 1 cm. FS fired for two seconds and then AF inducibility was tested by whether activation was sustained for another second. ECGs and BSPMs were simulated. Equivalent atrial sources were extracted using second-order blind source separation, and their cycle length, periodicity and contribution, were used as features for random forest classifiers. Longer rotor duration during FS-driven episodes indicates higher AF inducibility (area under ROC curve = 0.83). Our method had accuracy of 90.6±1.0% and 90.6±0.6% in detecting FS presence, and 93.1±0.6% and 94.2±1.2% in identifying AF sustainability, and 80.0±6.6% and 61.0±5.2% in determining the atrium of the focal site, from BSPMs and ECGs of five atria. The detection of FS presence and AF sustainability were insensitive to vest placement (±9.6%). On pre-operative BSPMs of 52 paroxysmal AF patients, patients classified with initiator-type FS on a single atrium resulted in improved two-to-three-year AF-free likelihoods (p-value < 0.01, logrank tests). Detection of FS and arrhythmogenic substrate can be performed from ECGs and BSPMs, enabling non-invasive mapping towards mechanism-targeted AF treatment, and malignant ectopic beat detection with likely AF progression.

Predicting Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence by Combining Population Data and Virtual Cohorts of Patient-Specific Left Atrial Models.

BACKGROUND: Current ablation therapy for atrial fibrillation is suboptimal, and long-term response is challenging to predict. Clinical trials identify bedside properties that provide only modest prediction of long-term response in populations, while patient-specific models in small cohorts primarily explain acute response to ablation. We aimed to predict long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence after ablation in large cohorts, by using machine learning to complement biophysical simulations by encoding more interindividual variability. METHODS: Patient-specific models were constructed for 100 atrial fibrillation patients (43 paroxysmal, 41 persistent, and 16 long-standing persistent), undergoing first ablation. Patients were followed for 1 year using ambulatory ECG monitoring. Each patient-specific biophysical model combined differing fibrosis patterns, fiber orientation maps, electrical properties, and ablation patterns to capture uncertainty in atrial properties and to test the ability of the tissue to sustain fibrillation. These simulation stress tests of different model variants were postprocessed to calculate atrial fibrillation simulation metrics. Machine learning classifiers were trained to predict atrial fibrillation recurrence using features from the patient history, imaging, and atrial fibrillation simulation metrics. RESULTS: We performed 1100 atrial fibrillation ablation simulations across 100 patient-specific models. Models based on simulation stress tests alone showed a maximum accuracy of 0.63 for predicting long-term fibrillation recurrence. Classifiers trained to history, imaging, and simulation stress tests (average 10-fold cross-validation area under the curve, 0.85±0.09; recall, 0.80±0.13; precision, 0.74±0.13) outperformed those trained to history and imaging (area under the curve, 0.66±0.17) or history alone (area under the curve, 0.61±0.14). CONCLUSION: A novel computational pipeline accurately predicted long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence in individual patients by combining outcome data with patient-specific acute simulation response. This technique could help to personalize selection for atrial fibrillation ablation.