Incidence, Implications, and Management of Sense-B-Noise Failure in Subcutaneous Cardioverter-Defibrillator Patients: insights from a large Multicenter Registry.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Subcutaneous implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (S-ICDs) offer potentially distinct advantages over transvenous defibrillator systems. Recent randomized trials showed significantly lower lead failure rates than transvenous ICD. Still, S-ICDs remain associated with the risk of inappropriate shocks (IAS). While previous studies have reported varying causes of IAS, this study explores a rare cause of IAS, referred to as "sense-B-noise." It was recently described in cases series, but its incidence has not been studied in a large cohort of S-ICD patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed data from patients implanted with S-ICD models 1010, A209 and A219 between October 2009 and July 2023 across 9 centers in Europe and the USA. The analysis concentrated on determining the incidence and understanding the implications of sense-B-noise events. Sense-B-noise represents a rare manifestation of distinct electrogram abnormalities within the primary and alternate sensing vectors. Data were collected from medical records, device telemetry, and manufacturer reports for investigation. This registry is registered on https://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05713708). RESULTS: S-ICD devices of the 1,158 patients were analyzed. The median follow-up time for all patients was 46 (IQR 23-64) months. In 107 patients (9.2%) ≥ 1 IAS was observed during follow-up. Sense-B-noise failure was diagnosed in 6 (0.5% and 5.6% of all IAS) patients, in all patients the diagnosis was made after an IAS episode. Median lead dwell time in the affected patients was 23 (2-70) months. To resolve the sense-B-noise defect, in three patients reprogramming to the secondary vector was undertaken, and two patients underwent system removal with subsequent S-ICD reimplantation due to low amplitude in secondary vector. In one patient the secondary vector was initially programmed, and subsequently, a S-ICD system exchange was performed due to T-wave oversensing IAS episodes. CONCLUSION: This multicenter analysis' findings shed light on a rare but clinically highly significant adverse event in S-ICD therapy. To our knowledge we provide the first systematic multicenter analysis investigating the incidence of sense-B-noise. Due to being difficult to diagnose and limited options for resolution, management of sense-B-noise is challenging. Complete system exchange may be the only option in some patients. Educating healthcare providers involved in S-ICD patient care is crucial for ensuring accurate diagnosis and effective management of sense-B-noise issues.

Occurrence of Premature Battery Depletion in a Large Multicenter Registry of Subcutaneous Cardioverter-Defibrillator Patients.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Subcutaneous implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (S-ICD) have become established in preventing sudden cardiac death, with some advantages over transvenous defibrillator systems, including a lower incidence of lead failures. Despite technological advancements, S-ICD carriers may suffer from significant complications, such as premature battery depletion (PBD) which led to an advisory for nearly 40,000 patients. This multicenter study evaluated the incidence of PBD in a large set of S-ICD patients. METHODS: Data from patients implanted with S-ICD models A209 and A219 between October 2012 and July 2023 across 9 centers in Europe and the USA was reviewed. Incidence and implications of PBD, defined as clinically observed sudden drop in battery longevity were analyzed and compared to PBD with the definition of battery depletion within 60 months. Prospectively collected clinical data was obtained retrospectively from medical records, device telemetry, and manufacturer reports. This registry is listed on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05713708). RESULTS: Of the 1,112 S-ICD devices analyzed, 547 (49.2%) were equipped with a potentially affected capacitor linked to PBD occurrence, currently under FDA advisory. The median follow-up time for all patients was 46 (IQR 24-63) months. Clinically suspected PBD was observed in 159 (29.1%) of cases, with a median time to generator removal or replacement of 65 (IQR 55-72) months, indicative of significant deviations from expected battery lifespan. Manufacturer confirmation of PBD was made in 91.7% of devices returned for analysis. No cases of PBD were observed in devices that were not under advisory. CONCLUSION: This manufacturer-independent analysis highlights a notable incidence of PBD in patients equipped with S-ICD models under advisory and the rate of PBD in this study corresponds to the rate currently estimated by the manufacturer. To the best of our knowledge this provides the largest contemporary peer-reviewed study cohort investigating the actual incidence of PBD in S-ICD patients. These findings emphasize the importance of post-market registries in collaboration between clinicians and the manufacturer to optimize safety and efficacy in S-ICD treatment.

Results of the Cologne Corona Surveillance (CoCoS) project- a cross-sectional study: survey data on risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and moderate-to-severe course in primarily immunized adults.

BACKGROUND: Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination has been a crucial strategy for mitigating transmission and disease severity. However, vaccine-effectiveness may be influenced by various factors, including booster vaccination, as well as personal factors such as age, sex, BMI, smoking, and comorbidities. To investigate the potential effects of these factors on SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity, we analyzed data from the third round of the Cologne Corona Surveillance (CoCoS) project, a large cross-sectional survey. METHODS: The study was conducted mid-February to mid-March 2022 in Cologne, Germany. A random sample of 10,000 residents aged 18 years and older were invited to participate in an online survey. Information on participants' demographics (age, sex), SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination status, smoking, and preexisting medical conditions were collected. The outcomes of the study were: (1) the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection despite vaccination (breakthrough infection) and (2) the occurrence of moderate-to-severe disease as a result of a breakthrough infection. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to investigate possible associations between the presence/absence of booster vaccination, personal factors and the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Associations with moderate-to-severe infection were analyzed using the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model. RESULTS: A sample of 2,991 residents responded to the questionnaire. A total of 2,623 primary immunized participants were included in the analysis of breakthrough infection and 2,618 in the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection severity after exclusions due to incomplete data. The multivariable results show that booster vaccination (HR = 0.613, 95%CI 0.415-0.823) and older age (HR = 0.974, 95%CI 0.966-0.981) were associated with a reduced hazard of breakthrough infection. Regarding the severity of breakthrough infection, older age was associated with a lower risk of moderate-to-severe breakthrough infection (HR = 0.962, 95%CI0.949-0.977). Female sex (HR = 2.570, 95%CI1.435-4.603), smoking (HR = 1.965, 95%CI1.147-3.367) and the presence of chronic lung disease (HR = 2.826, 95%CI1.465-5.450) were associated with an increased hazard of moderate-to-severe breakthrough infection. CONCLUSION: The results provide a first indication of which factors may be associated with SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection and moderate-to-severe course of infection despite vaccination. However, the retrospective nature of the study and risk of bias in the reporting of breakthrough infection severity limit the strength of the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046, Registered on 25 February 2021.

Exercise as an add-on treatment in individuals with schizophrenia: Results from a large multicenter randomized controlled trial.

Current treatment methods do not achieve recovery for most individuals with schizophrenia, and symptoms such as negative symptoms and cognitive deficits often persist. Aerobic endurance training has been suggested as a potential add-on treatment targeting both physical and mental health. We performed a large-scale multicenter, rater-blind, parallel-group randomized controlled clinical trial in individuals with stable schizophrenia. Participants underwent a professionally supervised six-month training comprising either aerobic endurance training (AET) or flexibility, strengthening, and balance training (FSBT, control group), follow-up was another six months. The primary endpoint was all-cause discontinuation (ACD); secondary endpoints included effects on psychopathology, cognition, functioning, and cardiovascular risk. In total, 180 participants were randomized. AET was not superior to FSBT in ACD and most secondary outcomes, with dropout rates of 59.55% and 57.14% in the six-month active phase, respectively. However, both groups showed significant improvements in positive, general, and total symptoms, levels of functioning and in cognitive performance. A higher training frequency additionally promoted further memory domains. Participants with higher baseline cognitive abilities were more likely to respond to the interventions. Our results support integrating exercise into schizophrenia treatment, while future studies should aim to develop personalized training recommendations to maximize exercise-induced benefits.

Antimicrobial resistance of clinical Enterobacterales isolates from urine samples, Germany, 2016 to 2021.

IntroductionEmpirical therapy for the treatment of urinary tract infections should be tailored to the current distribution and susceptibility of potential pathogens to ensure optimal treatment.AimWe aimed to provide an up-to-date overview of the epidemiology and susceptibility of Enterobacterales isolated from urine in Germany.MethodsWe retrospectively analysed antimicrobial susceptibility data from 201,152 urine specimens collected between January 2016 and June 2021 from in- and outpatients. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between year of investigation and antibiotic resistance, adjusted for age, sex and species subgroup. Subgroup analyses were performed for midstream urine samples obtained from (i) female outpatients aged 15 to 50 years, (ii) female outpatients older than 50 years and (iii) male outpatients.ResultsResistance rates of less than 20% were observed for nitroxoline (3.9%), fosfomycin (4.6%), nitrofurantoin (11.7%), cefuroxime (13.5%) and ciprofloxacin (14.2%). Resistance to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (SXT) (20.1%), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (20.5%), trimethoprim (24.2%), pivmecillinam (29.9%) and ampicillin (53.7%) was considerably higher. In the subgroup of outpatient women aged 15-50 years, resistance rates were generally lower. Resistance rates of all antibiotics decreased from 2016 to 2021. Multiple logistic regression revealed the lowest adjusted odds ratio (ORadj) of 0.838 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.819-0.858; p < 0.001) for pivmecillinam and the highest ORadj of 0.989 (95% CI: 0.972-1.007; p = 0.226) for nitrofurantoin.ConclusionsResistance has generally decreased over the past years, independent of sex, age and causative pathogen. Our data provide an important basis for empirical antibiotic recommendations in various settings and patient collectives.

Results of the Cologne Corona Surveillance (CoCoS) study - a cross-sectional study: survey data on risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults.

BACKGROUND: The personal, environmental, and behavioral risk factors that play an important role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are still largely unclear. At the same time, there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of specific countermeasures for SARS-CoV-2. As a first approach to these questions, we use data from the Cologne Corona Surveillance (CoCoS) study, a large cross-sectional study conducted in Cologne, Germany, in June 2021. METHODS: This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six thousand randomly selected Cologne residents who were 18 years of age or older were invited to participate in this study. Participant information was obtained via an online survey. Previous SARS-CoV-2 infections were recorded using self-reports. Sociodemographic and environmental information such as age, sex, living situation were collected. Potential SARS-CoV-2 risk behaviors were captured (workplace situation, adherence to hygiene regulations, and regular use of public transportation). Adherence to hygiene regulations was surveyed by determining the compliance with the 'AHA'-rules (German acronym that stands for keeping a distance of 1.5 m from fellow citizens, hand disinfection, and wearing a face mask). Binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: A sample of 2,433 study participants provided information. Comparison of the sample with the general population showed representativeness for most sociodemographic characteristics with a preference for higher level of education in the study sample. Younger age, as well as living with minor children (under 18 years) in the same household were associated with a higher number of self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infections. Adherence to hygiene regulations was associated with fewer self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infections in adults. Gender, size of living space per person, workplace situation (work from home versus working with contact to colleagues/customers), and regular use of public transportation showed no significant association with self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infections in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: The presented results provide initial indications of which sociodemographic and behavioral factors may be associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the fact that these factors were recorded without exact dates and could have changed accordingly during the pandemic or after infection limits the strength of the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046, Registered on 25 February 2021.

Early diagnostic indicators of dengue versus other febrile illnesses in Asia and Latin America (IDAMS study): a multicentre, prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in the early diagnosis of dengue are urgently needed, especially in resource-limited settings where the distinction between dengue and other febrile illnesses is crucial for patient management. METHODS: In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only. INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook. FUNDING: EU's Seventh Framework Programme. TRANSLATIONS: For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dengue algorithms integrated into the IMCI guidelines: An updated assessment in five Southeast-Asian countries.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is not included explicitly in the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm. However, the assessment, classification and management of dengue has been incorporated into several IMCI country adaptations. We aimed to evaluate the dengue algorithms incorporated into IMCI guidelines and discuss the need for harmonization, including an extension of the age range for IMCI. METHODS: This study included three steps. First, we investigated dengue algorithms incorporated into five Southeast-Asian (Myanmar, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia) country IMCI guidelines through a desk-based analysis. Second, we conducted an expert survey to elicit opinions regarding the integration of dengue and extension of the age range in IMCI. Third, we compared our findings with data from a large multicentric prospective study on acute febrile illness. RESULTS: We found considerable heterogeneity between the country specific IMCI guidelines in the dengue algorithms as well as classification schemes. Most guidelines did not differentiate between diagnostic algorithms for the detection of dengue versus other febrile illness, and warning signs for progression to severe dengue. Our expert survey resulted in a consensus to further integrate dengue in IMCI and extend the age range for IMCI guidelines beyond 5 years of age. Most of the interviewees responded that their country had a stand-alone clinical guideline for dengue, which was not integrated into the IMCI approach and considered laboratory testing for dengue necessary on day three of consecutive fever. Using data from a large multicentric study of children 5-15 years of age, we could confirm that the likelihood of dengue increased with consecutive fever days. However, a significant proportion of children (36%) would be missed if laboratory testing was only offered on the third consecutive day of fever. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the extension of the IMCI age range beyond 5 years of age as well as the inclusion of dengue relevant content in the algorithm. Because of the challenge of distinguishing dengue from other febrile illnesses, simple laboratory testing (e.g., full blood count) should be offered at an early stage during the course of the illness. Testing only children with consecutive fever over 3 days may lead to an underdiagnosis of dengue among those with acute febrile illness in children 5-15 years of age. In addition, specific laboratory testing for dengue should be made available to peripheral health facilities.

Results of the Cologne Corona surveillance (CoCoS) study - a prospective population-based cohort study: incidence data and potential underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 adult infections by health authorities.

BACKGROUND: Current incidence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany rely to a large extent on case notifications. However, the large number of mild or asymptomatic infections is likely to result in underestimation. Population-based studies can provide valid estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence and thus support health authorities to monitor the epidemiological situation and to initiate, maintain, strengthen or relax effective countermeasures. METHODS: This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six-thousand randomly drawn Cologne residents, 18 years of age or older, were contacted by mail in March 2021. Study envelopes contained a kit for self-administered saliva sample and access details to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, previous positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and completed COVID-19 vaccinations. Participants were again invited for a second round in June 2021, while those who declined participation were replaced by additional randomly drawn Cologne residents in order to reach a total of 6000 potential participants again. The saliva samples were sent to the laboratory by mail and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The incidence estimates were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure and compared with the official numbers of new SARS-CoV-2 cases in the adult Cologne population. RESULTS: The first surveillance round in March 2021 (response rate: 34.08%, N = 2045) showed a SARS-CoV-2 seven-day incidence of 85 cases per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 9 to 319). In the same period, the officially registered cases were 125 per 100,000. The second surveillance round in June 2021 (response rate: 36.53%, N = 2192) showed a seven-day incidence of 27 per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 1 to 142), while the official figures for newly registered SARS-CoV-2 cases in the same period were 15 per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence estimates do not indicate relevant underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 infections based on case notification. Regular use of the surveillance method developed here may nevertheless complement the efforts of the health authorities to assess the epidemiological situation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.

Progress feedback in children and adolescents with internalizing and externalizing symptoms in routine care (OPTIE study): study protocol of a randomized parallel-group trial.

BACKGROUND: Progress feedback provides therapists with progress notes on a regular basis through the continuous assessment of participants throughout their treatment (e.g., symptoms, therapeutic alliance). While for adults the evidence base has increased over the years, progress feedback in the therapy of children and adolescents has not been sufficiently investigated. This manuscript describes the trial protocol of the OPTIE study: a randomized trial that tests the efficacy of a progress feedback system in children and adolescents under conditions of routine care. METHODS: The study is based on a randomized parallel-group trial with two treatment groups (routine, feedback) at an outpatient unit of a university hospital. The target sample size is 439 families consisting of children and adolescents aged 6 to17 years old with internalizing and/or externalizing symptoms. Both the patients and the therapists are independently assigned to the treatment groups by stratified block randomization. In both treatment groups patients receive routine care behavioral therapy for a study-related 12 months; additionally, in the feedback group, a progress feedback system with three components is applied (monitoring, report, and supervision). For three informants (caregiver, child [≥ 11 years], therapist) surveys are conducted every 6 weeks (e.g., symptoms, goals, motivation). For both treatment groups, comparison data is collected at baseline and at six and 12 months after the beginning of the intervention (pre, inter, post), and includes five informants (blinded clinician, therapist, caregiver, child [≥ 11 years], teacher). DISCUSSION: The OPTIE study will contribute to the evidence base of progress feedback in children and adolescents and has the potential to uncover treatments' effects in the small to medium range. Noteworthy features are the inclusion of children younger than 10 years old and the consideration of a blinded clinician rating. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) DRKS00016737 ( https://www.drks.de/DRKS00016737 ). Registered 17 September, 2019.

Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes.

Background: Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD). Methods: We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included. Results: On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults. Conclusions: Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients. Funding: This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnostic performance of anti-Zika virus IgM, IgAM and IgG ELISAs during co-circulation of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses in Brazil and Venezuela.

BACKGROUND: Serological diagnosis of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is challenging because of the antibody cross-reactivity among flaviviruses. At the same time, the role of Nucleic Acid Testing (NAT) is limited by the low proportion of symptomatic infections and the low average viral load. Here, we compared the diagnostic performance of commercially available IgM, IgAM, and IgG ELISAs in sequential samples during the ZIKV and chikungunya (CHIKV) epidemics and co-circulation of dengue virus (DENV) in Brazil and Venezuela. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Acute (day of illness 1-5) and follow-up (day of illness ≥ 6) blood samples were collected from nine hundred and seven symptomatic patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter study between June 2012 and August 2016. Acute samples were tested by RT-PCR for ZIKV, DENV, and CHIKV. Acute and follow-up samples were tested for IgM, IgAM, and IgG antibodies to ZIKV using commercially available ELISAs. Among follow-up samples with a RT-PCR confirmed ZIKV infection, anti-ZIKV IgAM sensitivity was 93.5% (43/46), while IgM and IgG exhibited sensitivities of 30.3% (10/33) and 72% (18/25), respectively. An additional 24% (26/109) of ZIKV infections were detected via IgAM seroconversion in ZIKV/DENV/CHIKV RT-PCR negative patients. The specificity of anti-ZIKV IgM was estimated at 93% and that of IgAM at 85%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings exemplify the challenges of the assessment of test performance for ZIKV serological tests in the real-world setting, during co-circulation of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV. However, we can also demonstrate that the IgAM immunoassay exhibits superior sensitivity to detect ZIKV RT-PCR confirmed infections compared to IgG and IgM immunoassays. The IgAM assay also proves to be promising for detection of anti-ZIKV seroconversions in sequential samples, both in ZIKV PCR-positive as well as PCR-negative patients, making this a candidate assay for serological monitoring of pregnant women in future ZIKV outbreaks.

Genetic and environmental risk factors for reticular pseudodrusen in the EUGENDA study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze genetic and nongenetic associations with reticular pseudodrusen (RPD) in patients with and without age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: This case-control study included 2,719 consecutive subjects from the prospective multicenter European Genetic Database (EUGENDA). Color fundus photographs and optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans were evaluated for the presence of AMD and RPD. Association of RPD with 39 known AMD polymorphisms and various nongenetic risk factors was evaluated. Stepwise backward variable selection via generalized linear models (GLMs) was performed based on models including the following: a) age, sex, and genetic factors and b) all predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the areas under the curve (AUCs) were determined. RESULTS: RPD were present in 262 cases (no AMD, n = 9 [0.7%; early/intermediate AMD, n = 75 [12.4%]; late AMD, n = 178 [23.8%]). ROC analysis of the genetic model including age, APOE rs2075650, ARMS2 rs10490924, CFH rs800292, CFH rs12144939, CFI rs10033900, COL8A1 rs13081855, COL10A1 rs3812111, GLI3 rs2049622, and SKIV2L rs4296082 revealed an AUC of 0.871. Considering all possible predictors, backward selection revealed a slightly different set of genetic factors, as well as the following nongenetic risk factors: smoking, rheumatoid arthritis, steroids, antiglaucomatous drugs, and past sunlight exposure; the results showed an AUC of 0.886. CONCLUSIONS: RPD share a variety of genetic and nongenetic risk factors with AMD. Future AMD grading systems should integrate RPD as an important risk phenotype.

Zika virus infection in pregnancy: a protocol for the joint analysis of the prospective cohort studies of the ZIKAlliance, ZikaPLAN and ZIKAction consortia.

INTRODUCTION: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in pregnancy has been associated with microcephaly and severe neurological damage to the fetus. Our aim is to document the risks of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes and the prevalence of laboratory markers of congenital infection in deliveries to women experiencing ZIKV infection during pregnancy, using data from European Commission-funded prospective cohort studies in 20 centres in 11 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will carry out a centre-by-centre analysis of the risks of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, comparing women with confirmed and suspected ZIKV infection in pregnancy to those with no evidence of infection in pregnancy. We will document the proportion of deliveries in which laboratory markers of congenital infection were present. Finally, we will investigate the associations of trimester of maternal infection in pregnancy, presence or absence of maternal symptoms of acute ZIKV infection and previous flavivirus infections with adverse outcomes and with markers of congenital infection. Centre-specific estimates will be pooled using a two-stage approach. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained at each centre. Findings will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed open access journals and discussed with local public health officials and representatives of the national Ministries of Health, Pan American Health Organization and WHO involved with ZIKV prevention and control activities.

Severe dengue categories as research endpoints-Results from a prospective observational study in hospitalised dengue patients.

Severe dengue was perceived as one clinical disease entity until the WHO 2009 classification stratified it into severe vascular leakage, severe bleeding, and severe organ dysfunction. The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential use of severe dengue categories as endpoints for intervention research. 271 patients with severe dengue among 1734 confirmed dengue patients were followed prospectively in this hospital-based observational study in Latin America and Asia. We compared the distribution of severe dengue categories according to gender and age (below/above 15y), and determined the relative frequency and the overlap of severe dengue categories in the same patients. In a next step, we extended the analysis to candidate moderate severity categories, based on recently suggested definitions which were adapted for our purposes. Severe vascular leakage occurred in 244 (90%), severe bleeding in 39 (14%), and severe organ dysfunction in 28 (10%) of 271 severe dengue patients. A higher frequency of severe leakage was seen in children or adolescents (<15y) compared to adults. More than 80% of the severe leakage cases, and 30-50% of the cases with severe bleeding or severe organ dysfunction, were defined as severe on the basis of that feature alone. In 136 out of 213 patients with severe leakage alone, neither moderate bleeding manifestation nor hepatic involvement was recorded. On the other hand, moderate leakage manifestations were detected in 4 out of 12 cases that were classified as severe based on bleeding alone. A major proportion of severe dengue patients exhibited clinical manifestations of severe vascular leakage only, which may constitute a useful endpoint for intervention research or pathophysiology studies. Severe bleeding and severe organ manifestation were recorded less frequently and exhibited a higher degree of overlap with severe leakage. Severe bleeding without leakage may be associated with individual predisposition or the presence of comorbidities. More detailed assessments are needed to explore this hypothesis. Candidate moderate disease endpoints were investigated and need to be further validated.

C-reactive protein as a potential biomarker for disease progression in dengue: a multi-country observational study.

BACKGROUND: Dengue infection can cause a wide spectrum of clinical outcomes. The severe clinical manifestations occur sufficiently late in the disease course, during day 4-6 of illness, to allow a window of opportunity for risk stratification. Markers of inflammation may be useful biomarkers. We investigated the value of C-reactive protein (CRP) measured early on illness days 1-3 to predict dengue disease outcome and the difference in CRP levels between dengue and other febrile illnesses (OFI). METHOD: We performed a nested case-control study using the clinical data and samples collected from the IDAMS-consortium multi-country study. This was a prospective multi-center observational study that enrolled almost 8000 participants presenting with a dengue-like illness to outpatient facilities in 8 countries across Asia and Latin America. Predefined severity definitions of severe and intermediate dengue were used as the primary outcomes. A total of 281 cases with severe/intermediate dengue were compared to 836 uncomplicated dengue patients as controls (ratio 1:3), and also 394 patients with OFI. RESULTS: In patients with confirmed dengue, median (interquartile range) of CRP level within the first 3 days was 30.2 mg/L (12.4-61.2 mg/L) (uncomplicated dengue, 28.6 (10.5-58.9); severe or intermediate dengue, 34.0 (17.4-71.8)). Higher CRP levels in the first 3 days of illness were associated with a higher risk of severe or intermediate outcome (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.29), especially in children. Higher CRP levels, exceeding 30 mg/L, also associated with hospitalization (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.14-1.64) and longer fever clearance time (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93), especially in adults. CRP levels in patients with dengue were higher than patients with potential viral infection but lower than patients with potential bacterial infection, resulting in a quadratic association between dengue diagnosis and CRP, with levels of approximately 30 mg/L associated with the highest risk of having dengue. CRP had a positive correlation with total white cell count and neutrophils and negative correlation with lymphocytes, but did not correlate with liver transaminases, albumin, or platelet nadir. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, CRP measured in the first 3 days of illness could be a useful biomarker for early dengue risk prediction and may assist differentiating dengue from other febrile illnesses.

Study protocol for the multicentre cohorts of Zika virus infection in pregnant women, infants, and acute clinical cases in Latin America and the Caribbean: the ZIKAlliance consortium.

BACKGROUND: The European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 (H2020)-funded ZIKAlliance Consortium designed a multicentre study including pregnant women (PW), children (CH) and natural history (NH) cohorts. Clinical sites were selected over a wide geographic range within Latin America and the Caribbean, taking into account the dynamic course of the ZIKV epidemic. METHODS: Recruitment to the PW cohort will take place in antenatal care clinics. PW will be enrolled regardless of symptoms and followed over the course of pregnancy, approximately every 4 weeks. PW will be revisited at delivery (or after miscarriage/abortion) to assess birth outcomes, including microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities according to the evolving definition of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). After birth, children will be followed for 2 years in the CH cohort. Follow-up visits are scheduled at ages 1-3, 4-6, 12, and 24 months to assess neurocognitive and developmental milestones. In addition, a NH cohort for the characterization of symptomatic rash/fever illness was designed, including follow-up to capture persisting health problems. Blood, urine, and other biological materials will be collected, and tested for ZIKV and other relevant arboviral diseases (dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever) using RT-PCR or serological methods. A virtual, decentralized biobank will be created. Reciprocal clinical monitoring has been established between partner sites. Substudies of ZIKV seroprevalence, transmission clustering, disabilities and health economics, viral kinetics, the potential role of antibody enhancement, and co-infections will be linked to the cohort studies. DISCUSSION: Results of these large cohort studies will provide better risk estimates for birth defects and other developmental abnormalities associated with ZIKV infection including possible co-factors for the variability of risk estimates between other countries and regions. Additional outcomes include incidence and transmission estimates of ZIKV during and after pregnancy, characterization of short and long-term clinical course following infection and viral kinetics of ZIKV. STUDY REGISTRATIONS: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03188731 (PW cohort), June 15, 2017; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03393286 (CH cohort), January 8, 2018; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03204409 (NH cohort), July 2, 2017.

Understanding the relation between Zika virus infection during pregnancy and adverse fetal, infant and child outcomes: a protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of longitudinal studies of pregnant women and their infants and children.

INTRODUCTION: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy is a known cause of microcephaly and other congenital and developmental anomalies. In the absence of a ZIKV vaccine or prophylactics, principal investigators (PIs) and international leaders in ZIKV research have formed the ZIKV Individual Participant Data (IPD) Consortium to identify, collect and synthesise IPD from longitudinal studies of pregnant women that measure ZIKV infection during pregnancy and fetal, infant or child outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will identify eligible studies through the ZIKV IPD Consortium membership and a systematic review and invite study PIs to participate in the IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA). We will use the combined dataset to estimate the relative and absolute risk of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), including microcephaly and late symptomatic congenital infections; identify and explore sources of heterogeneity in those estimates and develop and validate a risk prediction model to identify the pregnancies at the highest risk of CZS or adverse developmental outcomes. The variable accuracy of diagnostic assays and differences in exposure and outcome definitions means that included studies will have a higher level of systematic variability, a component of measurement error, than an IPD-MA of studies of an established pathogen. We will use expert testimony, existing internal and external diagnostic accuracy validation studies and laboratory external quality assessments to inform the distribution of measurement error in our models. We will apply both Bayesian and frequentist methods to directly account for these and other sources of uncertainty. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The IPD-MA was deemed exempt from ethical review. We will convene a group of patient advocates to evaluate the ethical implications and utility of the risk stratification tool. Findings from these analyses will be shared via national and international conferences and through publication in open access, peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews (CRD42017068915).

Zika virus displacement by a chikungunya outbreak in Recife, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Several arboviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, circulate in northeast Brazil. Diseases caused by these viruses are of great public health relevance, however, their epidemiological features in areas where the three viruses co-circulate are scarce. Here, we present analyses of molecular and serological diagnostics in a prospective study of acute febrile patients recruited from May 2015 to May 2016 in Recife, Brazil. METHODS: Two hundred sixty-three acute febrile patients with symptoms suggestive of an arboviral disease who attended an urgent heath care clinic in the Recife Metropolitan Region in northeast Brazil were enrolled. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected and tested using molecular and serological assays for infection with DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV. RESULTS: Quantitative real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reactions (qRTPCR) performed on acute phase sera detected no patients positive for DENV, but 26 (9.9%) positive for ZIKV and 132 (50.2%) positive for CHIKV. There were a few suspected and only one confirmed dengue case. Specific serological assays for ZIKV and CHIKV confirmed the qRTPCR data. Analyses of DENV IgM and IgG ELISAs in the context of qRTPCR results suggested high levels of cross reactive antibodies in ZIKV-positive samples. Results from neutralization assays highly corroborated those from qRTPCR and ZIKV ELISA, indicating very few positive DENV cases. ZIKV infections were temporally clustered in the first months of the study and started to decrease concomitantly with an increase in CHIKV infections in August 2015. The proportion of CHIKV infections increased significantly in September 2015 and remained high until the end of the study period, with an average of 84.7% of recruited patients being diagnosed from August 2015 to May 2016. ZIKV infections exhibited a female bias and the cases were spread over the study site, while CHIKV cases had a male bias and were spatially clustered in each month. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015-2016 in the Recife Metropolitan Region, we detected the tail end of a Zika epidemic, which was displaced by a chikungunya epidemic. Few dengue cases were identified despite a high number of official dengue notifications in the area during this period. We show here important epidemiological features of these cases.

Risk of microcephaly after Zika virus infection in Brazil, 2015 to 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of microcephaly in babies born to women infected by the Zika virus during pregnancy in Brazil in an epidemic between 2015 and 2016. METHODS: We obtained data on the number of notified and confirmed microcephaly cases in each Brazilian state between November 2015 and October 2016 from the health ministry. For Pernambuco State, one of the hardest hit, weekly data were available from August 2015 to October 2016 for different definitions of microcephaly. The absolute risk of microcephaly was calculated using the average number of live births reported in each state in the corresponding time period between 2012 and 2014 and assuming two infection rates: 10% and 50%. The relative risk was estimated using the reported background frequency of microcephaly in Brazil of 1.98 per 10 000 live births. FINDINGS: The estimated absolute risk of a notified microcephaly case varied from 0.03 to 17.1% according to geographical area, the definition of microcephaly used and the infection rate. Assuming a 50% infection rate, there was an 18-127 fold higher probability of microcephaly in children born to mothers with infection during pregnancy compared with children born to mothers without infection during pregnancy in Pernambuco State. For a 10% infection rate, the probability was 88-635 folds higher. CONCLUSION: A large variation in the estimated risk of microcephaly was found in Brazil. Research is needed into possible effect modifiers, reliable measures of Zika virus infection and clear endpoints for congenital malformations.