Assessing Chikungunya risk in a metropolitan area of Argentina through satellite images and mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya fever is a viral disease that recently invaded the American continent. In America, it is transmitted mainly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, but Aedes albopictus is the main vector in other regions of the world. This work estimates the risk of disease emergence and the corresponding population at risk for the case of a naive population in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, the capital city of Argentina. METHODS: A classic metapopulation epidemiological model, that considers human and mosquito populations, was extended in order to include different environmental signals. First, the vital rates of the mosquitoes were affected by local temperature. Second, habitat availability estimated from satellite images was used to determine the carrying capacity for local mosquito populations. Disease invasion was proposed to occur at different moments of the year. For each scenario, Monte Carlo simulations were used to estimate the risk of disease invasion and the population at risk. RESULTS: The risk of a Chikungunya outbreak displays strong temporal (seasonal) patterns as well as spatial variability at the level of neighborhoods in the study area. According to the model, Summer and Fall display high risk for a Chikungunya invasion. The population at risk displays less variation over the year underlying the importance of preventive actions. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of mapping habitat quality for vector-borne diseases allows developing risk analysis at scales that are easily manageable for public health officers. For this location, the correlation of disease risk with the season of the year and the habitat availability could provide information to develop efficient control strategies. This also underlines the importance of involving the whole community when developing control measures for Chikungunya fever and other recently invading vector-borne diseases such as Zika fever.

Heterogeneous feeding patterns of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, on individual human hosts in rural Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Mosquito biting frequency and how bites are distributed among different people can have significant epidemiologic effects. An improved understanding of mosquito vector-human interactions would refine knowledge of the entomological processes supporting pathogen transmission and could reveal targets for minimizing risk and breaking pathogen transmission cycles. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used human DNA blood meal profiling of the dengue virus (DENV) vector, Aedes aegypti, to quantify its contact with human hosts and to infer epidemiologic implications of its blood feeding behavior. We determined the number of different people bitten, biting frequency by host age, size, mosquito age, and the number of times each person was bitten. Of 3,677 engorged mosquitoes collected and 1,186 complete DNA profiles, only 420 meals matched people from the study area, indicating that Ae. aegypti feed on people moving transiently through communities to conduct daily business. 10-13% of engorged mosquitoes fed on more than one person. No biting rate differences were detected between high- and low-dengue transmission seasons. We estimate that 43-46% of engorged mosquitoes bit more than one person within each gonotrophic cycle. Most multiple meals were from residents of the mosquito collection house or neighbors. People ≤ 25 years old were bitten less often than older people. Some hosts were fed on frequently, with three hosts bitten nine times. Interaction networks for mosquitoes and humans revealed biologically significant blood feeding hotspots, including community marketplaces. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: High multiple-feeding rates and feeding on community visitors are likely important features in the efficient transmission and rapid spread of DENV. These results help explain why reducing vector populations alone is difficult for dengue prevention and support the argument for additional studies of mosquito feeding behavior, which when integrated with a greater understanding of human behavior will refine estimates of risk and strategies for dengue control.

Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States.

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases.

Global coral disease prevalence associated with sea temperature anomalies and local factors.

Coral diseases are taking an increasing toll on coral reef structure and biodiversity and are important indicators of declining health in the oceans. We implemented standardized coral disease surveys to pinpoint hotspots of coral disease, reveal vulnerable coral families and test hypotheses about climate drivers from 39 locations worldwide. We analyzed a 3 yr study of coral disease prevalence to identify links between disease and a range of covariates, including thermal anomalies (from satellite data), location and coral cover, using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Prevalence of unhealthy corals, i.e. those with signs of known diseases or with other signs of compromised health, exceeded 10% on many reefs and ranged to over 50% on some. Disease prevalence exceeded 10% on 20% of Caribbean reefs and 2.7% of Pacific reefs surveyed. Within the same coral families across oceans, prevalence of unhealthy colonies was higher and some diseases were more common at sites in the Caribbean than those in the Pacific. The effects of high disease prevalence are potentially extensive given that the most affected coral families, the acroporids, faviids and siderastreids, are among the major reef-builders at these sites. The poritids and agaricids stood out in the Caribbean as being the most resistant to disease, even though these families were abundant in our surveys. Regional warm temperature anomalies were strongly correlated with high disease prevalence. The levels of disease reported here will provide a much-needed local reference point against which to compare future change.

Frontiers in climate change-disease research.

The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change-infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host-parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host-parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.

Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera.

BACKGROUND: The spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases that are environmentally driven reflect the combined effects of transmission dynamics and environmental heterogeneity. They contain important information on different routes of transmission, including the role of environmental reservoirs. Consideration of the spatial component in infectious disease dynamics has led to insights on the propagation of fronts at the level of counties in rabies in the US, and the metapopulation behavior at the level of cities in childhood diseases such as measles in the UK, both at relatively coarse scales. As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions. METHODS: The extensive spatio-temporal data set for cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, maps the individual location of cases from 1983 to 2003. This unique record allows us to examine the spatial structure of cholera outbreaks, to address the role of primary transmission, occurring from an aquatic reservoir to the human host, and that of secondary transmission, involving a feedback between current and past levels of infection. We use Ripley's K and L indices and bootstrapping methods to evaluate the occurrence of spatial clustering in the cases during outbreaks using different temporal windows. The spatial location of cases was also confronted against the spatial location of water sources. RESULTS: Spatial clustering of cholera cases was detected at different temporal and spatial scales. Cases relative to water sources also exhibit spatial clustering. CONCLUSIONS: The clustering of cases supports an important role of secondary transmission in the dynamics of cholera epidemics in Matlab, Bangladesh. The spatial clustering of cases relative to water sources, and its timing, suggests an effective role of water reservoirs during the onset of cholera outbreaks. Once primary transmission has initiated an outbreak, secondary transmission takes over and plays a fundamental role in shaping the epidemics in this endemic area.

Recruitment dynamics of the tropical rainforest tree Dipteryx oleifera (Fabaceae) in eastern Nicaragua.

Seed production, seed dispersal and recruitment are critical processes in population dynamics, because they are almost never completely successful. We recorded the recruitment dynamics for the population of Dipteryx oleifera in a tropical rainforest in eastern Nicaragua (12 degrees 05' N., 83 degrees 55' W.) from March 2002 to August 2006. Seeds and seedlings had highly clumped distributions, while sapling distributions appeared to be random. Seedling survival increased away from the nearest conspecifc adult tree, where seedling density is lower. Since relative growth rates of seedlings are not correlated with the distance to the nearest conspecific adult, seedling survival appears to be independent of seedling growth. Seedling density is inversely correlated with seedling insect herbivory damage. Seedling survival correlated negatively with the number of saplings per sub-plot (10x10 m), suggesting that insect herbivore may also cue in on saplings rather than only on adult D. oleifera trees in order to locate seedlings. Seedling establishment is significantly clumped with respect to the nearest adult tree. Larger clumps of seedlings seems more ephemeral than isolated smaller clumps located away from the nearest D. oleifera tree. These results support current empirical evidence presented earlier for the Janzen-Connell hypothesis for Dipteryx oleifera at seed and seedling stages and, the Recruitment Limitation hypothesis at the sapling stage, because sapling individuals might have recruited after random light-gap formation.

Recruitment dynamics of the tropical rainforest tree Dipteryx oleifera (Fabaceae) in eastern Nicaragua

Seed production, seed dispersal and recruitment are critical processes in population dynamics, because they are almost never completely successful. We recorded the recruitment dynamics for the population of Dipteryx oleifera in a tropical rainforest in eastern Nicaragua (12°05’ N., 83°55’ W.) from March 2002 to August 2006. Seeds and seedlings had highly clumped distributions, while sapling distributions appeared to be random. Seedling survival increased away from the nearest conspecifc adult tree, where seedling density is lower. Since relative growth rates of seedlings are not correlated with the distance to the nearest conspecific adult, seedling survival appears to be independent of seedling growth. Seedling density is inversely correlated with seedling insect herbivory damage. Seedling survival correlated negatively with the number of saplings per sub-plot (10x10m), suggesting that insect herbivore may also cue in on saplings rather than only on adult D. oleifera trees in order to locate seedlings. Seedling establishment is significantly clumped with respect to the nearest adult tree. Larger clumps of seedlings seems more ephemeral than isolated smaller clumps located away from the nearest D. oleifera tree. These results support current empirical evidence presented earlier for the Janzen-Connell hypothesis for Dipteryx oleifera at seed and seedling stages and, the Recruitment Limitation hypothesis at the sapling stage, because sapling individuals might have recruited after random light-gap formation. Rev. Biol. Trop. 57 (1-2): 321-338. Epub 2009 June 30.

Resumen Estudiamos la dinámica de regeneración de la población de Dipteryx oleifera en un bosque húmedo tropical del este de Nicaragua. Semillas y plántulas se encuentran altamente agregadas, pero la distribución de vástagos podría ser al azar. La supervivencia de plántulas aumenta con la distancia al congéner más cercano, donde la densidad de plántulas es más baja. Como las tasas de crecimiento relativo de plántulas no se correlacionan con la distancia al congénere más cercano, la supervivencia de las plantas pareciera no estar determinada por el crecimiento de plántulas. La densidad de plántulas está inversamente correlacionada con los niveles de daño de herbivoría insectívora. La supervivencia de plántulas se correlaciona negativamente con el número de vástagos, lo cuál sugiere que los insectos herbívoros podrían estar localizando vástagos y árboles y de allí, las plántulas. La supervivencia de plántulas presentó una distribución significativamente agrupada lejos de los congéneres más cercanos. Los parches de plántulas más grandes fueron más efímeros que los parches pequeños y aislados ubicados lejos de los árboles adultos. Los resultados coinciden con la hipótesis de Janzen-Connell sobre estados de semilla y plántula. Además, ofrecen evidencia en favor de la hipótesis de Limitación de Reclutamiento para los vástagos, ya que los vástagos podrían estar estableciéndose en claros de luz pequeños que se forman al azar.