Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States.

The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term burden of COVID-19 in the United States from many contributing teams. We study methods for building an ensemble that combines forecasts from these teams. These experiments have informed the ensemble methods used by the Hub. To be most useful to policymakers, ensemble forecasts must have stable performance in the presence of two key characteristics of the component forecasts: (1) occasional misalignment with the reported data, and (2) instability in the relative performance of component forecasters over time. Our results indicate that in the presence of these challenges, an untrained and robust approach to ensembling using an equally weighted median of all component forecasts is a good choice to support public health decision-makers. In settings where some contributing forecasters have a stable record of good performance, trained ensembles that give those forecasters higher weight can also be helpful.

Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts of epidemics.

Distributional forecasts are important for a wide variety of applications, including forecasting epidemics. Often, forecasts are miscalibrated, or unreliable in assigning uncertainty to future events. We present a recalibration method that can be applied to a black-box forecaster given retrospective forecasts and observations, as well as an extension to make this method more effective in recalibrating epidemic forecasts. This method is guaranteed to improve calibration and log score performance when trained and measured in-sample. We also prove that the increase in expected log score of a recalibrated forecaster is equal to the entropy of the PIT distribution. We apply this recalibration method to the 27 influenza forecasters in the FluSight Network and show that recalibration reliably improves forecast accuracy and calibration. This method, available on Github, is effective, robust, and easy to use as a post-processing tool to improve epidemic forecasts.

An open repository of real-time COVID-19 indicators.

The COVID-19 pandemic presented enormous data challenges in the United States. Policy makers, epidemiological modelers, and health researchers all require up-to-date data on the pandemic and relevant public behavior, ideally at fine spatial and temporal resolution. The COVIDcast API is our attempt to fill this need: Operational since April 2020, it provides open access to both traditional public health surveillance signals (cases, deaths, and hospitalizations) and many auxiliary indicators of COVID-19 activity, such as signals extracted from deidentified medical claims data, massive online surveys, cell phone mobility data, and internet search trends. These are available at a fine geographic resolution (mostly at the county level) and are updated daily. The COVIDcast API also tracks all revisions to historical data, allowing modelers to account for the frequent revisions and backfill that are common for many public health data sources. All of the data are available in a common format through the API and accompanying R and Python software packages. This paper describes the data sources and signals, and provides examples demonstrating that the auxiliary signals in the COVIDcast API present information relevant to tracking COVID activity, augmenting traditional public health reporting and empowering research and decision-making.

Interactome INSIDER: a structural interactome browser for genomic studies.

We present Interactome INSIDER, a tool to link genomic variant information with structural protein-protein interactomes. Underlying this tool is the application of machine learning to predict protein interaction interfaces for 185,957 protein interactions with previously unresolved interfaces in human and seven model organisms, including the entire experimentally determined human binary interactome. Predicted interfaces exhibit functional properties similar to those of known interfaces, including enrichment for disease mutations and recurrent cancer mutations. Through 2,164 de novo mutagenesis experiments, we show that mutations of predicted and known interface residues disrupt interactions at a similar rate and much more frequently than mutations outside of predicted interfaces. To spur functional genomic studies, Interactome INSIDER (http://interactomeinsider.yulab.org) enables users to identify whether variants or disease mutations are enriched in known and predicted interaction interfaces at various resolutions. Users may explore known population variants, disease mutations, and somatic cancer mutations, or they may upload their own set of mutations for this purpose.

A free-boundary model of a motile cell explains turning behavior.

To understand shapes and movements of cells undergoing lamellipodial motility, we systematically explore minimal free-boundary models of actin-myosin contractility consisting of the force-balance and myosin transport equations. The models account for isotropic contraction proportional to myosin density, viscous stresses in the actin network, and constant-strength viscous-like adhesion. The contraction generates a spatially graded centripetal actin flow, which in turn reinforces the contraction via myosin redistribution and causes retraction of the lamellipodial boundary. Actin protrusion at the boundary counters the retraction, and the balance of the protrusion and retraction shapes the lamellipodium. The model analysis shows that initiation of motility critically depends on three dimensionless parameter combinations, which represent myosin-dependent contractility, a characteristic viscosity-adhesion length, and a rate of actin protrusion. When the contractility is sufficiently strong, cells break symmetry and move steadily along either straight or circular trajectories, and the motile behavior is sensitive to conditions at the cell boundary. Scanning of a model parameter space shows that the contractile mechanism of motility supports robust cell turning in conditions where short viscosity-adhesion lengths and fast protrusion cause an accumulation of myosin in a small region at the cell rear, destabilizing the axial symmetry of a moving cell.