Outcomes and care quality metrics for people living with rheumatic heart disease and atrial fibrillation in Uganda.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and is challenging to treat in lower-resourced settings in which RHD remains endemic. Objective: We characterized demographics, treatment outcomes, and factors leading to care retention for participants with RHD and AF in Uganda. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Uganda national RHD registry between June 2009 and May 2018. Participants with AF or atrial flutter were included. Demographics, survival, and care metrics were compared with participants without AF. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with retention in care among participants with AF. Results: A total of 1530 participants with RHD were analyzed and 293 (19%) had AF. The median age was 24 (interquartile range 14-38) years. Mortality was similar in both groups (adjusted hazard ratio 1.183, P = .77) over a median follow-up of 203 (interquartile range 98-275) days. A total of 79% of AF participants were prescribed anticoagulation, and 43% were aware of their target international normalized ratio. Retention in care was higher in participants with AF (18% vs 12%, P < .01). Factors associated with decreased retention in care include New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.76) and distance to nearest health center (adjusted OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99). Anticoagulation prescription was associated with enhanced care retention (adjusted OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.24-2.79). Conclusion: Participants with RHD and AF in Uganda do not experience higher mortality than those without AF. Anticoagulation prescription rates are high. Although retention in care is poor among RHD participants, those with concurrent AF are more likely to be retained.

The Echocardiographic Diagnosis of Rheumatic Heart Disease: A Review of the Performance of the World Heart Federation Criteria 2012-2023.

Background: The World Heart Federation (WHF) published the first evidence-based guidelines on the echocardiographic diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in 2012. These guidelines have since been applied internationally in research and clinical practice. Substantial research has assessed the utility of the 2012 WHF criteria, including its applicability in low-resource settings. This article summarises the evidence regarding the performance of the guidelines. Methods: A scoping review assessing the performance of the guidelines was performed. Cochrane, Embase, Medline, PubMed Lilacs, Sielo, and Portal BVS databases were searched for studies on the performance of the guidelines between January 2012-March 2023, and 4047 manuscripts met the search criteria, of which 34 were included. This included papers assessing the specificity, inter-rater reliability, application using hand-carried ultrasound, and modification of the criteria for simplicity. The review followed the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews guideline. Results: The WHF 2012 criteria were 100% specific for definite RHD when applied in low-prevalence populations. The criteria demonstrated substantial and moderate inter-rater reliability for detecting definite and borderline RHD, respectively. The inter-rater reliability for morphological features was lower than for valvular regurgitation. When applied to hand-carried ultrasound performed by an expert, modified versions of the criteria demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity range of 79-90% and 87-93% respectively for detecting any RHD, performing best for definite RHD. The sensitivity and the specificity were reduced when performed in task-sharing but remains moderately accurate. Conclusion: The WHF 2012 criteria provide clear guidance for the echocardiographic diagnosis of RHD that is reproducible and applicable to a range of echocardiographic technology. Furthermore, the criteria are highly specific and particularly accurate for detecting definite RHD. There are limitations in applying all aspects of the criteria in specific settings, including task-sharing. This summary of evidence can inform the updated version of the WHF guidelines to ensure improved applicability in all RHD endemic regions.

Intramuscular versus Enteral Penicillin Prophylaxis to Prevent Progression of Rheumatic Heart Disease: Study protocol for a non-inferiority randomized trial (the GOALIE trial).

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) persists as a major cardiovascular driver of mortality and morbidity among young people in low- and middle-income countries. Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) with penicillin remains the cornerstone of RHD control, however, sub-optimal treatment adherence undermines most secondary prevention programs. Many of the barriers to optimal SAP adherence are specific to the intramuscular form of penicillin and may potentially be overcome by use of oral penicillin. This non-inferiority trial is comparing the efficacy of intramuscular to oral penicillin SAP to prevent progression of mild RHD at 2 years. METHODS/DESIGN: The Intramuscular versus Enteral Penicillin Prophylaxis to Prevent Progression of Rheumatic Heart Disease (GOALIE) trial is randomizing Ugandan children aged 5-17 years identified by echocardiographic screening with mild RHD (Stage A or B as defined by 2023 World Heart Federation criteria) to Benzathine Benzyl Penicillin G (BPG arm, every-28-day intramuscular penicillin) or Phenoxymethyl Penicillin (Pen V arm, twice daily oral penicillin) for a period of 2 years. A blinded echocardiography adjudication panel of 3 RHD experts and 2 cardiologists is determining the echocardiographic stage of RHD at enrollment and will do the same at study completion by consensus review. Treatment adherence and study retention are supported through peer support groups and case management strategies. The primary outcome is the proportion of children in the Pen V arm who progress to more advanced RHD compared to those in the BPG arm. Secondary outcomes are patient-reported outcomes (treatment acceptance, satisfaction, and health related quality of life), costs, and cost-effectiveness of oral compared to intramuscular penicillin prophylaxis for RHD. A total sample size of 1004 participants will provide 90% power to demonstrate non-inferiority using a margin of 4% with allowance for 7% loss to follow-up. Participant enrollment commenced in October 2023 and final participant follow-up is expected in December 2026. The graphical abstract (Figure 1) summarizes the flow of echocardiographic screening, participant enrollment and follow-up. DISCUSSION: The GOALIE trial is critical in global efforts to refine a pragmatic approach to secondary prevention for RHD control. GOALIE insists that the inferiority of oral penicillin be proven contemporarily and against the most important near-term clinical outcome of progression of RHD severity. This work also considers other factors that could influence the adoption of oral prophylaxis and change the calculus for acceptable efficacy including patient-reported outcomes and costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05693545.

Using Artificial Intelligence for Rheumatic Heart Disease Detection by Echocardiography: Focus on Mitral Regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: Identification of children with latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) by echocardiography, before onset of symptoms, provides an opportunity to initiate secondary prophylaxis and prevent disease progression. There have been limited artificial intelligence studies published assessing the potential of machine learning to detect and analyze mitral regurgitation or to detect the presence of RHD on standard portable echocardiograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used 511 echocardiograms in children, focusing on color Doppler images of the mitral valve. Echocardiograms were independently reviewed by an expert adjudication panel. Among 511 cases, 229 were normal, and 282 had RHD. Our automated method included harmonization of echocardiograms to localize the left atrium during systole using convolutional neural networks and RHD detection using mitral regurgitation jet analysis and deep learning models with an attention mechanism. We identified the correct view with an average accuracy of 0.99 and the correct systolic frame with an average accuracy of 0.94 (apical) and 0.93 (parasternal long axis). It localized the left atrium with an average Dice coefficient of 0.88 (apical) and 0.9 (parasternal long axis). Maximum mitral regurgitation jet measurements were similar to expert manual measurements (P value=0.83) and a 9-feature mitral regurgitation analysis showed an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.93, precision of 0.83, recall of 0.92, and F1 score of 0.87. Our deep learning model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.84, precision of 0.78, recall of 0.98, and F1 score of 0.87. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence has the potential to detect RHD as accurately as expert cardiologists and to improve with more data. These innovative approaches hold promise to scale echocardiography screening for RHD.

User-Centered Design to Develop Automated Short Message Service Messaging for Patient Support of Rheumatic Heart Disease Secondary Antibiotic Prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: The Active Community Case Management Platform is a cloud-based technology developed to facilitate rheumatic heart disease case management by health care providers. This study aimed to design and pilot an automated short message service (SMS) intervention to support secondary prophylaxis adherence. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed a concise library of messages to support secondary antibiotic prophylaxis. The SMS intervention used TextIT, an interface that enables users to send out interactive SMS messages at scale. The message bank was piloted in a cohort of 50 patients with rheumatic heart disease randomized into 2 groups. Group 1 received standard support (nurse-led/Active Community Case Management Platform). Group 2 received standard support plus SMS intervention for 2 months in the Lira and Gulu districts of Northern Uganda. We collected qualitative data on participants' experiences and assessed treatment adherence. Using a sequential user-centered process consisting of 4 phases (phases 1-4), we developed a message bank (n=43) deployed during our pilot study. There were no between-group differences in treatment adherence or acceptance. Interviews of participants indicated that the intervention was viewed positively. A total of 75% of SMS recipients responded to the messages, and 25% called the study staff to acknowledge receipt of text messages. CONCLUSIONS: This study has successfully developed a bank of SMS messages to support secondary antibiotic prophylaxis adherence. We have demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of SMS technology in rheumatic heart disease care management. Future work will include integrating automated SMS into the Active Community Case Management Platform and a larger study of integrated SMS to reduce health care worker burden for patient support and improve adherence to secondary antibiotic prophylaxis.

2023 World Heart Federation guidelines for the echocardiographic diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is an important and preventable cause of morbidity and mortality among children and young adults in low-income and middle-income countries, as well as among certain at-risk populations living in high-income countries. The 2012 World Heart Federation echocardiographic criteria provided a standardized approach for the identification of RHD and facilitated an improvement in early case detection. The 2012 criteria were used to define disease burden in numerous epidemiological studies, but researchers and clinicians have since highlighted limitations that have prompted a revision. In this updated version of the guidelines, we incorporate evidence from a scoping review, an expert panel and end-user feedback and present an approach for active case finding for RHD, including the use of screening and confirmatory criteria. These guidelines also introduce a new stage-based classification for RHD to identify the risk of disease progression. They describe the latest evidence and recommendations on population-based echocardiographic active case finding and risk stratification. Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis, echocardiography equipment and task sharing for RHD active case finding are also discussed. These World Heart Federation 2023 guidelines provide a concise and updated resource for clinical and research applications in RHD-endemic regions.

Outcomes of latent rheumatic heart disease: External validation of a simplified score in patients with and without secondary prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis reduces progression of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) but not all children benefit. Improved risk stratification could refine recommendations following positive screening. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a previously developed echocardiographic risk score to predict mid-term outcomes among children with latent RHD. METHODS: We included children who completed the GOAL, a randomized trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis among children with latent RHD in Uganda. Outcomes were determined by a 4-member adjudication panel. We applied the point-based score, consisting of 5 variables (mitral valve (MV) anterior leaflet thickening (3 points), MV excessive leaflet tip motion (3 points), MV regurgitation jet length ≥ 2 cm (6 points), aortic valve focal thickening (4 points) and any aortic regurgitation (5 points)), to panel results. Unfavorable outcome was defined as progression of diagnostic category (borderline to definite, mild definite to moderate/severe definite), worsening valve involvement or remaining with mild definite RHD. RESULTS: 799 patients (625 borderline and 174 definite RHD) were included, with median follow-up of 24 months. At total 116 patients (14.5%) had unfavorable outcome per study criteria, 57.8% not under prophylaxis. The score was strongly associated with unfavorable outcome (HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37, p < 0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤6 points), intermediate (7-9 points) and high-risk (≥10 points) children at follow-up were 11.8%, 30.4%, and 42.2%, (p < 0.001) respectively (C-statistic = 0.64 (95% CI 0.59-0.69)). CONCLUSIONS: The simple risk score provided an accurate prediction of RHD status at 2-years, showing a good performance in a population with milder RHD phenotypes.

Clinical Profile and Outcomes of Rheumatic Heart Disease Patients Undergoing Surgical Valve Procedures in Uganda.

Background: Chronic valvular heart disease is a well-known, long-term complication of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), which remains a major public health problem in low- and middle-income countries. Access to surgical management remains limited. Outcomes of the minority proportion of patients that access surgery have not been described in Uganda. Objectives: To describe the volume and type of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) valvular interventions and the outcomes of operated patients in the Uganda RHD registry. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of all valve surgery procedures identified in the Uganda RHD registry through December 2021. Results: Three hundred and sixty-seven surgical procedures were performed among 359 patients. More than half were among young (55.9% were ≤20 years of age), female (59.9%) patients. All patients were censored at 15 years. The median (IQR) follow up period was 43 (22,79) months. Nearly half of surgeries (46.9%) included interventions on multiple valves, and most valvular operations were replacements with mechanical prostheses (96.6%). Over 70% of the procedures were sponsored by charity organizations. The overall mortality of patients who underwent surgery was 13% (47/359), with over half of the mortalities occurring within the first year following surgery (27/47; 57.4%). Fifteen-year survival or freedom from re-operation was not significantly different between those receiving valve replacements and those receiving valve repair (log-rank p = 0.76). Conclusions: There has been increasing access to valve surgery among Ugandan patients with RHD. Post-operative survival is similar to regionally reported rates. The growing cohort of patients living with prosthetic valves necessitates national expansion and decentralization of post-operative care services. Major reliance on charity funding of surgery is unsustainable, thus calling for locally generated and controlled support mechanisms such as a national health insurance scheme. The central illustration (Figure 1) provides a summary of our findings and recommendations.

Development and User Testing of a Dynamic Tool for Rheumatic Heart Disease Management.

OBJECTIVE: Most rheumatic heart disease (RHD) registries are static and centralized, collecting epidemiological and clinical data without providing tools to improve care. We developed a dynamic cloud-based RHD case management application with the goal of improving care for patients with RHD in Uganda. METHODS: The Active Community Case Management Tool (ACT) was designed to improve community-based case management for chronic disease, with RHD as the first test case. Global and local partner consultation informed selection of critical data fields and prioritization of application functionality. Multiple stages of review and revision culminated in user testing of the application at the Uganda Heart Institute. RESULTS: Global and local partners provided feedback of the application via survey and interview. The application was well received, and top considerations included avenues to import existing patient data, considering a minimum data entry form, and performing a situation assessment to tailor ACT to the health system setup for each new country. Test users completed a postuse survey. Responses were favorable regarding ease of use, desire to use the application in regular practice, and ability of the application to improve RHD care in Uganda. Concerns included appropriate technical skills and supports and potential disruption of workflow. CONCLUSION: Creating the ACT application was a dynamic process, incorporating iterative feedback from local and global partners. Results of the user testing will help refine and optimize the application. The ACT application showed potential for utility and integration into existing care models in Uganda.

Research opportunities for the primary prevention and management of acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease: a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute workshop report.

Primary prevention of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) encompasses the timely diagnosis and adequate treatment of the superficial group A Streptococcus (GAS) infections pharyngitis and impetigo. GAS is the only known inciting agent in the pathophysiology of the disease. However, sufficient evidence indicates that the uptake and delivery of primary prevention approaches in RHD-endemic regions are significantly suboptimal. This report presents expert deliberations on priority research and implementation opportunities for primary prevention of ARF/RHD that were developed as part of a workshop convened by the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in November 2021. The opportunities identified by the Primary Prevention Working Group encompass epidemiological, laboratory, clinical, implementation and dissemination research domains and are anchored on five pillars including: (A) to gain a better understanding of superficial GAS infection epidemiology to guide programmes and policies; (B) to improve diagnosis of superficial GAS infections in RHD endemic settings; (C) to develop scalable and sustainable models for delivery of primary prevention; (D) to understand potential downstream effects of the scale-up of primary prevention and (E) to develop and conduct economic evaluations of primary prevention strategies in RHD endemic settings. In view of the multisectoral stakeholders in primary prevention strategies, we emphasise the need for community co-design and government engagement, especially in the implementation and dissemination research arena. We present these opportunities as a reference point for research organisations and sponsors who aim to contribute to the increasing momentum towards the global control and prevention of RHD.

Evaluating the implementation of a dynamic digital application to enable community-based decentralisation of rheumatic heart disease case management in Uganda: protocol for a hybrid type III effectiveness-implementation study.

INTRODUCTION: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) affects over 39 million people worldwide, the majority in low-income and middle-income countries. Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP), given every 3-4 weeks can improve outcomes, provided more than 80% of doses are received. Poor adherence is strongly correlated with the distance travelled to receive prophylaxis. Decentralising RHD care has the potential to bridge these gaps and at least maintain or potentially increase RHD prophylaxis uptake. A package of implementation strategies was developed with the aim of reducing barriers to optimum SAP uptake. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A hybrid implementation-effectiveness study type III was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a package of implementation strategies including a digital, cloud-based application to support decentralised RHD care, integrated into the public healthcare system in Uganda. Our overarching hypothesis is that secondary prophylaxis adherence can be maintained or improved via a decentralisation strategy, compared with the centralised delivery strategy, by increasing retention in care. To evaluate this, eligible patients with RHD irrespective of their age enrolled at Lira and Gulu hospital registry sites will be consented for decentralised care at their nearest participating health centre. We estimated a sample size of 150-200 registrants. The primary outcome will be adherence to secondary prophylaxis while detailed implementation measures will be collected to understand barriers and facilitators to decentralisation, digital application tool adoption and ultimately its use and scale-up in the public healthcare system. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (IRB 2021-0160) and Makerere University School of Medicine Research Ethics Committee (Mak-SOMREC-2021-61). Participation will be voluntary and informed consent or assent (>8 but <18) will be obtained prior to participation. At completion, study findings will be communicated to the public, key stakeholders and submitted for publication.

The Use of Artificial Intelligence Guidance for Rheumatic Heart Disease Screening by Novices.

INTRODUCTION: A novel technology utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) to provide real-time image-acquisition guidance, enabling novices to obtain diagnostic echocardiographic images, holds promise to expand the reach of echo screening for rheumatic heart disease (RHD). We evaluated the ability of nonexperts to obtain diagnostic-quality images in patients with RHD using AI guidance with color Doppler. METHODS: Novice providers without prior ultrasound experience underwent a 1-day training curriculum to complete a 7-view screening protocol using AI guidance in Kampala, Uganda. All trainees then scanned 8 to 10 volunteer patients using AI guidance, half RHD and half normal. The same patients were scanned by 2 expert sonographers without the use of AI guidance. Images were evaluated by expert blinded cardiologists to assess (1) diagnostic quality to determine presence/absence of RHD and (2) valvular function and (3) to assign an American College of Emergency Physicians score of 1 to 5 for each view. RESULTS: Thirty-six novice participants scanned a total of 50 patients, resulting in a total of 462 echocardiogram studies, 362 obtained by nonexperts using AI guidance and 100 obtained by expert sonographers without AI guidance. Novice images enabled diagnostic interpretation in >90% of studies for presence/absence of RHD, abnormal MV morphology, and mitral regurgitation (vs 99% by experts, P ≤ .001). Images were less diagnostic for aortic valve disease (79% for aortic regurgitation, 50% for aortic stenosis, vs 99% and 91% by experts, P < .001). The American College of Emergency Physicians scores of nonexpert images were highest in the parasternal long-axis images (mean, 3.45; 81% ≥ 3) compared with lower scores for apical 4-chamber (mean, 3.20; 74% ≥ 3) and apical 5-chamber images (mean, 2.43; 38% ≥ 3). CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence guidance with color Doppler is feasible to enable RHD screening by nonexperts, performing significantly better for assessment of the mitral than aortic valve. Further refinement is needed to optimize acquisition of color Doppler apical views.

Comparison of approaches to determine echocardiographic outcomes for children with latent rheumatic heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Screening programmes using echocardiography offer opportunity for intervention through identification and treatment of early (latent) rheumatic heart disease (RHD). We aimed to compare two methods for classifying progression or regression of latent RHD: serial review method and blinded, side-by-side review. METHODS: A four-member expert panel reviewed 799 enrolment (in 2018) and completion (in 2020) echocardiograms from the GOAL Trial of latent RHD in Uganda to make consensus determination of normal, borderline RHD or definite RHD. Serial interpretations (enrolment and completion echocardiograms read at two different time points, 2 years apart, not beside one another) were compared with blinded side-by-side comparisons (enrolment and completion echocardiograms displayed beside one another in random order on same screen) to determine outcomes according to prespecified definitions of disease progression (worsening), regression (improving) or no change. We calculated inter-rater agreement using Cohen's kappa. RESULTS: There were 799 pairs of echocardiogram assessments included. A higher number, 54 vs 38 (6.8% vs 4.5%), were deemed as progression by serial interpretation compared with side-by-side comparison. There was good inter-rater agreement between the serial interpretation and side-by-side comparison methods (kappa 0.89). Disagreement was most often a result of the difference in classification between borderline RHD and mild definite RHD. Most discrepancies between interpretation methods (46 of 47, 98%) resulted from differences in valvular morphological evaluation, with valves judged to be morphologically similar between enrolment and final echocardiograms when compared side by side but classified differently on serial interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: There was good agreement between the methods of serial and side-by-side interpretation of echocardiograms for change over time, using the World Heart Federation criteria. Side-by-side interpretation has higher specificity for change, with fewer differences in the interpretation of valvular morphology, as compared with serial interpretation.

Cardiovascular diseases in Africa in the twenty-first century: Gaps and priorities going forward.

In 2015, the United Nations set important targets to reduce premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths by 33% by 2030. Africa disproportionately bears the brunt of CVD burden and has one of the highest risks of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide. There is currently an epidemiological transition on the continent, where NCDs is projected to outpace communicable diseases within the current decade. Unchecked increases in CVD risk factors have contributed to the growing burden of three major CVDs-hypertension, cardiomyopathies, and atherosclerotic diseases- leading to devastating rates of stroke and heart failure. The highest age standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to hypertensive heart disease (HHD) were recorded in Africa. The contributory causes of heart failure are changing-whilst HHD and cardiomyopathies still dominate, ischemic heart disease is rapidly becoming a significant contributor, whilst rheumatic heart disease (RHD) has shown a gradual decline. In a continent where health systems are traditionally geared toward addressing communicable diseases, several gaps exist to adequately meet the growing demand imposed by CVDs. Among these, high-quality research to inform interventions, underfunded health systems with high out-of-pocket costs, limited accessibility and affordability of essential medicines, CVD preventive services, and skill shortages. Overall, the African continent progress toward a third reduction in premature mortality come 2030 is lagging behind. More can be done in the arena of effective policy implementation for risk factor reduction and CVD prevention, increasing health financing and focusing on strengthening primary health care services for prevention and treatment of CVDs, whilst ensuring availability and affordability of quality medicines. Further, investing in systematic country data collection and research outputs will improve the accuracy of the burden of disease data and inform policy adoption on interventions. This review summarizes the current CVD burden, important gaps in cardiovascular medicine in Africa, and further highlights priority areas where efforts could be intensified in the next decade with potential to improve the current rate of progress toward achieving a 33% reduction in CVD mortality.

Trends in Annual Incidence Rates of Newly Diagnosed Endomyocardial Fibrosis Cases at the Uganda Heart Institute: A 14-Year Review.

Background: First described in Uganda over seven decades ago, Endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF) is a rare form of restrictive cardiomyopathy found in the tropics. EMF occurs mainly in two phenotypes; biventricular involvement and right ventricular (RV) form. Previously endemic in several countries, there are reports suggesting that the disease is on the decline. Objectives: To describe trends in annual incidence rates of newly diagnosed EMF cases at the Uganda Heart Institute (UHI). Methods: This was a retrospective chart review of all newly diagnosed EMF cases at UHI from January 2007 to December 2020. Cases were divided into two groups A (2007-2013) and B (2014-2020). Results: A total of 155 cases were diagnosed during the period (Group A, n = 124; Group B, n = 31). There were no significant differences between the two groups A and B regarding median age at diagnosis (14 vs. 12 years, p = 0.0940), gender (48.4% female vs. 35.5%, p = 0.1987), and EMF type (66.9% RV EMF vs. 71.0%, p = 0.6634), respectively. The presence of complications such as intracardiac thrombus (5.6 vs. 32.2%, p = 0.0002) and pericardial effusion (57.3% vs. 80.6, p = 0.0172) were more frequent in group B than A, respectively. Pulmonary hypertension (PHT) was predominantly seen in cases with biventricular EMF compared to those with RV EMF (26 vs. 3.8%, p = 0.0001). The number of new cases diagnosed per year remained largely stable in the period 2007-2011, ranging 14-21 per year, peaked in 2012 (26 new cases), and thereafter declined from 10 cases seen in 2013 to 1-5 cases seen per year in the period 2017-2020. Similarly, the annual incidence rates of new EMF diagnosis remained relatively stable in the period 2007-2012, ranging between 22.7 and 29.7 per 10,000 patients seen in the echo labs, and then dramatically declined after 2012 to range between 1.0 and 4.5 new cases per 10,000 patients in the period between 2017 and 2020. Conclusion: There has been a steady decline in the number of new cases of EMF seen at the UHI. However, there were no significant differences in the gender, age at diagnosis and EMF subtype of cases during the period under review. Complication rates were more frequent in the later cohort.

Modelling study of the ability to diagnose acute rheumatic fever at different levels of the Ugandan healthcare system.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability to accurately diagnose acute rheumatic fever (ARF) given the resources available at three levels of the Ugandan healthcare system. METHODS: Using data obtained from a large epidemiological database on ARF conducted in three districts of Uganda, we selected variables that might positively or negatively predict rheumatic fever based on diagnostic capacity at three levels/tiers of the Ugandan healthcare system. Variables were put into three statistical models that were built sequentially. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate ORs and 95% CI of predictors of ARF. Performance of the models was determined using Akaike information criterion, adjusted R2, concordance C statistic, Brier score and adequacy index. RESULTS: A model with clinical predictor variables available at a lower-level health centre (tier 1) predicted ARF with an optimism corrected area under the curve (AUC) (c-statistic) of 0.69. Adding tests available at the district level (tier 2, ECG, complete blood count and malaria testing) increased the AUC to 0.76. A model that additionally included diagnostic tests available at the national referral hospital (tier 3, echocardiography, anti-streptolysin O titres, erythrocyte sedimentation rate/C-reactive protein) had the best performance with an AUC of 0.91. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the burden of rheumatic heart disease in low and middle-income countries requires overcoming challenges of ARF diagnosis. Ensuring that possible cases can be evaluated using electrocardiography and relatively simple blood tests will improve diagnostic accuracy somewhat, but access to echocardiography and tests to confirm recent streptococcal infection will have the greatest impact.