Prediction of new-onset heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes derived from ALTITUDE and CANVAS.

AIM: To create and validate a prediction model to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at high risk of new-onset heart failure (HF), including those treated with a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor. METHODS: A prediction model was developed from the Aliskiren Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardiorenal Endpoints (ALTITUDE), a trial in T2D patients with albuminuria or cardiovascular disease. We included 5081 patients with baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurement and no history of HF. The model was developed using Cox regression and validated externally in the placebo arm of the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS), which included 996 participants with T2D and established cardiovascular disease or high cardiovascular risk, and in patients treated with canagliflozin. RESULTS: ALTITUDE participants (mean age 64 ± 9.8 years) had a median serum NT-proBNP level of 157 (25th-75th percentile 70-359) pg/mL. Higher NT-proBNP level, troponin T (TnT) level and body mass index (BMI) emerged as significant and independent predictors of new-onset HF in both cohorts. The model further contained urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, glycated haemoglobin, age, haematocrit, and use of calcium channel blockers. A prediction model including these variables had a C-statistic of 0.828 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.801-0.855) in ALTITUDE and 0.800 (95% CI 0.720-0.880) in CANVAS. The C-statistic of this model increased to 0.847 (95% CI 0.792-0.902) in patients after 1 year of canagliflozin treatment. CONCLUSION: In patients with T2D, higher NT-proBNP level, TnT level and BMI are independent and externally validated predictors of new-onset HF, including patients using an SGLT2 inhibitor. This newly developed model may identify patients at high risk of new-onset HF, contributing to early recognition and possibly prevention.

Aetiology of Heart Failure, Rather than Sex, Determines Reverse LV Remodelling Response to CRT.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an established therapy for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Women appear to respond differently to CRT, yet it remains unclear whether this is inherent to the female sex itself, or due to other patient characteristics. In this study, we aimed to investigate sex differences in response to CRT. METHODS: This is a post-hoc analysis of a prospective, multicenter study (MARC) in the Netherlands, studying HFrEF patients with an indication for CRT according to the guidelines (n = 240). Primary outcome measures are left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left ventricular end systolic volume (LVESV) at 6 months follow-up. Results were validated in an independent retrospective Belgian cohort (n = 818). RESULTS: In the MARC cohort 39% were women, and in the Belgian cohort 32% were women. In the MARC cohort, 70% of the women were responders (defined as >15% decrease in LVESV) at 6 months, compared to 55% of men (p = 0.040) (79% vs. 67% in the Belgian cohort, p = 0.002). Women showed a greater decrease in LVESV %, LVESV indexed to body surface area (BSA) %, and increase in LVEF (all p < 0.05). In regression analysis, after adjustment for BSA and etiology, female sex was no longer associated with change in LVESV % and LVESV indexed to BSA % and LVEF % (p > 0.05 for all). Results were comparable in the Belgian cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Women showed a greater echocardiographic response to CRT at 6 months follow-up. However, after adjustment for BSA and ischemic etiology, no differences were found in LV-function measures or survival, suggesting that non-ischemic etiology is responsible for greater response rates in women treated with CRT.

Serial Measurements of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Serum Level for Monitoring Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in Children.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between serially measured N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) serum levels and disease severity in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and to assess its predictive value for death or (heart-)lung transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: This was a longitudinal cohort study of the Dutch National Network for Pediatric Pulmonary Hypertension conducted between 2003 and 2017. Data on NT-proBNP and disease severity markers (World Health Organization Functional Class [WHO-FC], 6-minute walking distance [6MWD], and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion [TAPSE]) were collected every 3 to 6 months from 82 children with PAH. The outcome measure was death or (heart-)lung transplantation. Also, NT-proBNP levels over time were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. RESULTS: The median patient age was 8.8 years (IQR, 4.6-13.5 years), and 61% were female. The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years (IQR, 1.9-10.0 years). At all times during the course of disease, higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher WHO-FC (ß = 0.526; 95% CI, 0.451-0.600), lower 6MWD z-score (ß = -0.587; 95% CI, -0.828 to -0.346), lower TAPSE z-score (ß = -0.783; 95% CI, -1.016 to -0.549), and elevated risk of death or (heart-)lung transplantation (hazard ratio 16.61; 95% CI, 7.81-35.33). Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors had NT-proBNP levels that were higher at first measurement and increased exponentially over time (P = .005). Changes in NT-proBNP serum level over time were predictive of outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Throughout the disease course of pediatric PAH, serial measurements of NT-proBNP are associated with disease severity and transplant-free survival. Monitoring NT-proBNP levels over time provides important prognostic information that can support clinical decision making in combination with other established prognostic markers.