Highlighting successes and challenges of the mental health system in Tunisia: an overview of services, facilities, and human resources.

BACKGROUND: Tunisia is a lower-middle-income country located in North Africa with strengths and challenges to its mental health system. AIMS: We present an overview of available services, facilities, and human resources to offer mental health care in Tunisia. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study, where data for the year 2017 was collected between May 2018 and May 2019 by consulting stakeholders involved in the health field in Tunisia. We compare this information with data published in the WHO-AIMS report (2008), which presents mental health data in Tunisia for the year 2004. RESULTS: Successes of the mental health system in Tunisia include an increase in the ratios of psychiatrists and psychologists, with these ratios being higher than those of other lower-middle-income countries; a flourishing child-psychiatry practice; and an increase in people being treated for mental health conditions. Challenges include psychiatrists being over-represented in large cities along the coastline and in the private sector, and most people receiving treatment in specialized mental health facilities. CONCLUSIONS: The further operationalization of the National Strategy for Mental Health Promotion is envisioned, through the training of non-specialists in mental health care and incentives offered to psychiatrists to work in the country's interior and the public sector.

May Measurement Month 2019: an analysis of blood pressure screening results from Tunisia.

We performed a May Measurement Month (MMM) screening campaign among adult volunteers aged 18 years old and over in Tunisia. The objective was to raise awareness, and to estimate the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, one of the main cardiovascular risk factors. Following the MMM protocol, three blood pressure (BP) measurements were taken by physicians and standard interviewing procedures were used to record medical history, socio-demographic, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Hypertension was defined as a systolic BP ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or treatment with antihypertensive medication. From 11 271 adults screened, the prevalence of hypertension was 38.1%. Among those with hypertension, 72.5% were aware of their diagnosis, and 67.5% were treated. BP control was achieved in only 38.2% of all those with hypertension. The study highlights the magnitude of hypertension in Tunisia. There is an urgent need for implementing a comprehensive integrated population-based intervention programme to ameliorate the growing problem of hypertension.

Impact of contact tracing, respect of isolation, and lockdown in reducing the number of cases infected with COVID-19. Case study: Tunisia's response from March 22 to May 4, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world. Tunisia reacted early to COVID-19, resulting in a low number of infections during the first wave of the pandemic. This study was performed to model the effects of different interventions on the evolution of cases and to compare these with the Tunisian experience. METHODS: A stochastic transmission model was used to quantify the reduction in number of cases of COVID-19 with the interventions of contact tracing, compliance with isolation, and a general lockdown. RESULTS: In the model, increasing contact tracing from 20% to 80% after the first 100 cases reduced the cumulative number of infections (CNI) by 52% in 1 month. Similarly, increased compliance with isolation from 20% to 80% after the first 100 cases reduced the CNI by 45%. These reductions were smaller if the interventions were implemented after 1000 cases. A general lockdown reduced the CNI by 97% after the first 100 cases. Tunisia implemented its general lockdown after 75 cases were confirmed, which reduced the cumulative number of infected cases by 86% among the general population. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the early application of critical interventions contributes significantly to reducing infections and the evolution of COVID-19 in a country. Tunisia's early success with the control of COVID-19 is explained by its quick response.

Explaining income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in Tunisian adults during the last decade: comparison of sensitivity analysis of logistic regression and Wagstaff decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: It is important to quantify inequality, explain the contribution of underlying social determinants and to provide evidence to guide health policy. The aim of the study is to explain the income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in the last decade among Tunisian adults aged between 35 and 70 years old. METHODS: We performed the analysis by applying two approaches and compared the results provided by the two methods. The methods were global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using logistic regression models and the Wagstaff decomposition analysis. RESULTS: Results provided by the two methods found a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in those with high socio-economic status in 2005. Similar results were observed in 2016. In 2016, the GSA showed that education level occupied the first place on the explanatory list of factors explaining 36.1% of the adult social inequality in high cardiovascular risk, followed by the area of residence (26.2%) and income (15.1%). Based on the Wagstaff decomposition analysis, the area of residence occupied the first place and explained 40.3% followed by income and education level explaining 19.2 and 14.0% respectively. Thus, both methods found similar factors explaining inequalities (income, educational level and regional conditions) but with different rankings of importance. CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed substantial income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors and diabetes in Tunisia and provided explanations for this. Results based on two different methods similarly showed that structural disparities on income, educational level and regional conditions should be addressed in order to reduce inequalities.

Premature mortality attributable to smoking among Tunisian men in 2009.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoking is a significant public health threat in the world, a risk factor for many diseases, and has been increasing in prevalence in many developing countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the burden of premature deaths attributable to smoking among Tunisian men aged 35-69 years in 2009. METHODS: The number of deaths attributable to smoking was estimated using the population attributable risk fraction method. Smoking prevalence was obtained from a nationally representative survey. Causes of death were obtained from the registry of the National Public Health Institute. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Prevention Study (CPS-II). RESULTS: Total estimated premature deaths attributable to smoking among men in Tunisia were 2601 (95% CI: 2268-2877), accounting for 25% (95% CI: 23.3-26.6) of total male adult mortality. Cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were the major causes of premature deaths attributable to smoking with 1272 (95% CI: 1188-1329), 966 (95% CI: 779-1133) and 364 (300-415) deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is highly relevant and is related to substantial premature mortality in Tunisia, around double that estimated for the region as a whole. This also has not decreased over the past 20 years. Urgent actions are needed to reduce this pandemic.

KRAS and NRAS pyrosequencing screening in Tunisian colorectal cancer patients in 2015.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in KRAS and NRAS often result in constitutive activation of RAS in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling pathway. Mutations in KRAS exon 2 (codon 12-13) predict resistance to anti-EGFR targeted therapy in patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC). However, it's currently known that a significant proportion of mCRC have RAS mutations outside KRAS exon 2, particularly in exons 3 and 4 of KRAS and exons 2, 3 and 4 of NRAS. No data about RAS mutations outside KRAS exon 2 are available for Tunisian mCRC. The aim of this study was to analyze RAS, using pyrosequencing, in nine hotspots mutations in Tunisian patients with mCRC. METHODS: A series of 131 mCRC was enrolled. Nine hotspots sites mutations of KRAS and NRAS were analyzed (KRAS: codons 12-13, codons 59-61, codon 117 and codon 146, NRAS: codons 12-13, codon 59, codon 61, codon 117 and codon 146) using Therascreen KRAS and RAS extension pyrosequencing kits. RESULTS: Analysis was successful in 129 cases (98.5%). Mutations were observed in 97 cases (75.2%) dominated by those in KRAS exon 2 (86.6%). KRAS G12V was the most dominated mutation, observed in 25 cases (25.8%), and followed by KRAS G12S and KRAS G12D, each in 17 cases (17.5%). Mutations outside of KRAS exon 2 presented 13.4% of mutated cases and almost a third (28.8%) of KRAS exon 2 wild type mCRC. Among those, 9 cases (69.3%) carried mutations in NRAS exons 2, 3 and 4 and 4 cases (30.7%) in KRAS exons 3 and 4. CONCLUSIONS: RAS mutations outside exon 2 of KRAS should be included in routine practice, since they predict also response to anti-EGFR. That would make certain these patients benefit from appropriate testing and treatment. In addition unjustified expenses of anti-EGFR targeted therapy could be avoided.

Comparing Strategies to Prevent Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease in the Tunisian Population: Markov Modeling Approach Using a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the potential to analyze and compare the effectiveness of very different interventions to prevent future cardiovascular disease. We developed a comprehensive Markov model to assess the impact of three interventions to reduce ischemic heart diseases (IHD) and stroke deaths: (i) improved medical treatments in acute phase, (ii) secondary prevention by increasing the uptake of statins, (iii) primary prevention using health promotion to reduce dietary salt consumption. METHODS: We developed and validated a Markov model for the Tunisian population aged 35-94 years old over a 20-year time horizon. We compared the impact of specific treatments for stroke, lifestyle, and primary prevention on both IHD and stroke deaths. We then undertook extensive sensitivity analyses using both a probabilistic multivariate approach and simple linear regression (metamodeling). RESULTS: The model forecast a dramatic mortality rise, with 111,134 IHD and stroke deaths (95% CI 106567 to 115048) predicted in 2025 in Tunisia. The salt reduction offered the potentially most powerful preventive intervention that might reduce IHD and stroke deaths by 27% (-30240 [-30580 to -29900]) compared with 1% for medical strategies and 3% for secondary prevention. The metamodeling highlighted that the initial development of a minor stroke substantially increased the subsequent probability of a fatal stroke or IHD death. CONCLUSIONS: The primary prevention of cardiovascular disease via a reduction in dietary salt consumption appeared much more effective than secondary or tertiary prevention approaches. Our simple but comprehensive model offers a potentially attractive methodological approach that might now be extended and replicated in other contexts and populations.

Contribution of verbal autopsy in the study of cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in Tunisia.

Background In Tunisia, the information system on medical causes of death  is based on the use of standard death certificate model based on international model recommended by the World Organization started in January 2001. However, this system is still burdened with a major death causes of under-registration. Only specific surveys on mortality have FAR generate reliable mortality indicators. Objectives to study the use of verbal autopsy in order to assess cancer mortality among Tunisian women in reproductive age (WRA) . Methods A retrospective   national RAMOS survey (Reproductive Age Mortality Study). This survey was conducted in 2010 and included all deaths of women aged 15-49 years which occurred in 2008 and were due to cancer. Data were collected from civil status records and information gathered from families and from health institution's registers. For all deaths of women aged 15-49 years, the detailed circumstances and the sequence of events leading to death were grouped on a folder called "clinical record of verbal autopsy" .Then; all folders were submitted to the independent expert. Results During the study period, 1729 deaths among women of reproductive age (WRA) were the subject of a verbal autopsy against only 708 recorded by the National death information system (NDIS). Cancer is the leading cause of death among WRA .The specific rate of cancer mortality is 17.83 per 100 000 WRA against only 7.91 per 100 000 WRA estimated by the NDIS. Breast cancer is the leading cause with 35% of all cancers and specific death rate of 6.3 per 100,000 WRA against 2.48 per 100,000 WRA recorded by the NDIS. Conclusion Verbal autopsies Verbal autopsy remains an interesting method for measuring cancer mortality in women of a reproductive age especially in countries with a defective national death information system.

Cancer mortality among reproductive age women in Tunisia.

BACKGROUND: Cause-of-death data are critical to formulating good public health programs. In Tunisia, the mortality surveys of reproductive age women are specifically interested in maternal mortality and we do not have data on deaths from noncommunicable diseases including cancer. AIM: To identify the main cancers causing death among Tunisian women in reproductive age. METHODS: A retrospective   national RAMOS survey (Reproductive Age Mortality Study). This survey was conducted in 2010 and included all deaths of women aged 15-49 years which occurred in 2008 and were due to cancer. Data collection was based on the verbal autopsy method. RESULTS: In Tunisia, cancer is the leading cause of death among reproductive age women, especially breast cancer. The most exposed women are housewives (64.4%), aged 40-49 years (55.3%), living in urban areas (62.2%), belonging to the middle tercile classification of households (45.4%) and reaching a level of basic education (44.2%). CONCLUSION: Cancer should receive priority funding of health care for this population in order to improve its diagnosis and treatment, with a special motion for breast cancer.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

BACKGROUND: Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. METHODS: Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. RESULTS: Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. DISCUSSION: CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically.

[Investigating into whether systematic fetal weight estimation by ultrasound in the delivery room increases the risk of cesarean delivery]. / Le recours systématique à l'estimation échographique du poids fœtal en salle de naissances augmente-t-il le risque d'accouchement par césarienne?

Ultrasound is a valuable tool commonly used in the delivery room. It has multiple applications. The objective of this study was to investigate whether systematic fetal weight estimation by ultrasound in the delivery room increases the risk of cesarean delivery. Monocentric cohort study. All parturients with singleton pregnancies who gave birth full-term at = 39 weeks were enrolled in the study. We excluded all patients with a contraindication to vaginal birth as well as those in whom fetal weight estimation (FWE) by ultrasound on day of delivery was deemed necessary in making obstetric decision. Parturients enrolled in the study were divided into two groups: - G1: parturients who systematically underwent FWE - G2: parturients who never underwent FWE. We compared cesarean delivery rate with adjustment for potentially confounding factors according to logistic regression. 838 parturients were enrolled in the study. Prematurity, FWE and weight at birth were risk factors for cesarean delivery. After adjustment for confounding factors, FWE by ultrasound systematically performed in G1 proved to be an independent risk factor for cesarean delivery with OR = 3.8 (CI 95% = [2.67 to 5.48]). This risk increased significantly with estimated fetal weight (EFW): OR=2,27(CI 95;1,15-4,47; p=0.018) for 3500 < EFW < 4000g and OR = 10.64 (CI 95; 4.28 to 26.41; p < 0.001 ) for EFW > 4000 g. FWE by ultrasound systematically performed in the delivery room represents an independent and potentially modifiable risk factor for cesarean delivery.

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys.

Cardiovascular risk factor trends in the Eastern Mediterranean region: evidence from four countries is alarming.

OBJECTIVES: Many Eastern Mediterranean countries are undergoing dramatic socioeconomic, demographic and life style changes and face noncommunicable disease (NCD) epidemics. We evaluated recent trends in major NCD risk factors in occupied Palestinian territories (OPT), Turkey, Syria and Tunisia. METHODS: We searched published and unpublished sources for systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, smoking, body mass index (BMI), and cholesterol trends for both men and women aged 35-84 in each country from 1995 to 2009. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence was stable over time in Tunisia and Syria, but decreasing in Turkey (annual change -0.9%) and OPT (annual change -0.7%). Mean BMI (annual change of 0.1% for Turkey, 0.2% for OPT and Tunisia and 0.3% in Syria) and diabetes (annual change of 0.3% for Turkey, 0.4% for OPT and Tunisia and 0.7% in Syria) prevalence increased in each country. SBP levels increased slightly in Tunisia and Syria but decreased in OPT and Turkey. CONCLUSIONS: Recent risk factor trends are worrying. Good quality data on the extent and determinants of NCDs are essential to respond the changing health needs of populations with burgeoning NCD epidemics.

Analyzing recent coronary heart disease mortality trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009.

BACKGROUND: In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. OBJECTIVE: To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. DATA SOURCES: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. ANALYSIS: Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). RESULTS: CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (-0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). CONCLUSIONS: Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive.