ABSTRACT
Despite the successes in wild-type polio eradication, poor vaccine coverage in the DRC has led to the occurrence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. This cross-sectional population-based survey provides an update to previous poliovirus-neutralizing antibody seroprevalence studies in the DRC and quantifies risk factors for under-immunization and parental knowledge that guide vaccine decision making. Among the 964 children between 6 and 35 months in our survey, 43.8% (95% CI: 40.6-47.0%), 41.1% (38.0-44.2%), and 38.0% (34.9-41.0%) had protective neutralizing titers to polio types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. We found that 60.7% of parents reported knowing about polio, yet 25.6% reported knowing how it spreads. Our data supported the conclusion that polio outreach efforts were successfully connecting with communities-79.4% of participants had someone come to their home with information about polio, and 88.5% had heard of a polio vaccination campaign. Additionally, the odds of seroreactivity to only serotype 2 were far greater in health zones that had a history of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) compared to health zones that did not. While SIAs may be reaching under-vaccinated communities as a whole, these results are a continuation of the downward trend of seroprevalence rates in this region.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources. METHODS: Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases. RESULTS: The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.
