Symptoms, viral loads, and rebound among COVID-19 outpatients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir compared to propensity score matched untreated individuals.

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (N/R) reduces severe outcomes among patients with COVID-19; however, rebound after treatment has been reported. We compared symptom and viral dynamics in community-based individuals with COVID-19 who completed N/R and similar untreated individuals. METHODS: We identified symptomatic participants who tested SARS-CoV-2 positive and were N/R eligible from a COVID-19 household transmission study: index cases from ambulatory settings and their households were enrolled, collecting daily symptoms, medication use, and respiratory specimens for quantitative PCR for 10 days, March 2022-May 2023. Participants who completed N/R (treated) were propensity score matched to untreated participants. We compared symptom rebound, viral load (VL) rebound, average daily symptoms, and average daily VL by treatment status measured after N/R completion or, if untreated, seven days after symptom onset. RESULTS: Treated (n=130) and untreated participants (n=241) had similar baseline characteristics. After treatment completion, treated participants had greater occurrence of symptom rebound (32% vs 20%; p=0.009) and VL rebound (27% vs 7%; p<0.001). Average daily symptoms were lower among treated participants compared to untreated participants without symptom rebound (1.0 vs 1.6; p<0.01), but not statistically lower with symptom rebound (3.0 vs 3.4; p=0.5). Treated participants had lower average daily VLs without VL rebound (0.9 vs 2.6; p<0.01), but not statistically lower with VL rebound (4.8 vs 5.1; p=0.7). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who completed N/R experienced fewer symptoms and lower VL but were more likely to have rebound compared to untreated individuals. Providers should still prescribe N/R, when indicated, and communicate possible increased rebound risk to patients.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care versus centralised, laboratory-based nucleic acid testing for diagnosis of HIV in infants: a systematic review of modelling studies.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care (POC) nucleic acid testing for diagnosis of HIV in infants facilitates earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) than with centralised (standard-of-care, SOC) testing, but can be more expensive. We evaluated cost-effectiveness data from mathematical models comparing POC with SOC to provide global policy guidance. METHODS: In this systematic review of modelling studies, we searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, Econlit, and conference abstracts, combining terms for "HIV" + "infant"/"early infant diagnosis" + "point-of-care" + "cost-effectiveness" + "mathematical models", without restrictions from database inception to July 15, 2022. We selected reports of mathematical cost-effectiveness models comparing POC with SOC for HIV diagnosis in infants younger than 18 months. Titles and abstracts were independently reviewed, with full-text review for qualifying articles. We extracted data on health and economic outcomes and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for narrative synthesis. The primary outcomes of interest were ICERs (comparing POC with SOC) for ART initiation and survival of children living with HIV. FINDINGS: Our search identified 75 records through database search. 13 duplicates were excluded, leaving 62 non-duplicate articles. 57 records were excluded and five were reviewed in full text. One article was excluded as it was not a modelling study, and four qualifying studies were included in the review. These four reports were from two mathematical models from two independent modelling groups. Two reports used the Johns Hopkins model to compare POC with SOC for repeat early infant diagnosis testing in the first 6 months in sub-Saharan Africa (first report, simulation of 25 000 children) and Zambia (second report, simulation of 7500 children). In the base scenario, POC versus SOC increased probability of ART initiation within 60 days of testing from 19% to 82% (ICER per additional ART initiation range US$430-1097; 9-month cost horizon) in the first report; and from 28% to 81% in the second ($23-1609, 5-year cost horizon). Two reports compared POC with SOC for testing at 6 weeks in Zimbabwe using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-Paediatric model (simulation of 30 million children; lifetime horizon). POC increased life expectancy and was considered cost-effective compared with SOC (ICER $711-850 per year of life saved in HIV-exposed children). Results were robust throughout sensitivity and scenario analyses. In most scenarios, platform cost-sharing (co-use with other programmes) resulted in POC being cost-saving compared with SOC. INTERPRETATION: Four reports from two different models suggest that POC is a cost-effective and potentially cost-saving strategy for upscaling of early infant testing compared with SOC. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Unitaid, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, WHO, and Massachusetts General Hospital Research Scholars.

US-Mexico binational COVID-19 cases in southern California border counties, California, February-June 2020.

Background: COVID-19 has had a significant public health impact on both the United States and Mexico. Cross-border mobility between southern California and Mexico raises questions of transmission trends between these jurisdictions. The objective of this project was to describe binational cases amongst California US-Mexico border county COVID-19 cases and compare incidence trends to cross-border Mexico jurisdictions. Methods: Interview data from persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in San Diego County, CA and Imperial County, CA from February to June 2020 were reviewed for binational cases; demographics and connection to COVID-19 outbreaks were assessed. Graphs of COVID-19 incidence in San Diego County and Imperial County were compared to incidence graphs in cross-border Mexico jurisdictions of Tijuana and Mexicali. Results: Persons with COVID-19 and a binational case were older, more likely to be Hispanic, and reside in a border ZIP code than those without. Binational cases were a small proportion and tracked with overall cases during the study period. Conclusions: Binational cases had different trends than non-binational cases of SARS-CoV-2 in San Diego and Imperial counties from February to June 2020. Findings could inform SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies specific to the US-Mexico land border, particularly recommendations regarding cross-border land travel.

SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons: A case series.

The preclinical time course of SARS-CoV-2 shedding is not well-described. Understanding this time course will help to inform risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. During an outbreak in a congregate setting, we collected paired mid-turbinate nasal swabs for antigen testing and reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) every other day from all consenting infected and exposed persons. Among 12 persons tested prospectively before and during SARS-CoV-2 infection, ten of 12 participants (83%) had completed a primary COVID-19 vaccination series prior to the outbreak. We recovered SARS-CoV-2 in viral culture from 9/12 (75%) of participants. All three persons from whom we did not recover SARS-CoV-2 in viral culture had completed their primary vaccination series. We recovered SARS-CoV-2 from viral culture in 6/9 vaccinated persons and before symptom onset in 3/6 symptomatic persons. These findings underscore the need for both non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination to mitigate transmission.

Transmission potential of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a federal prison, July-August 2021.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which vaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 contribute to transmission is unclear. During a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak among incarcerated persons with high vaccination rates in a federal prison, we assessed markers of viral shedding in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. METHODS: Consenting incarcerated persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection provided mid-turbinate nasal specimens daily for 10 consecutive days and reported symptom data via questionnaire. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), viral whole genome sequencing, and viral culture was performed on these nasal specimens. Duration of RT-PCR positivity and viral culture positivity was assessed using survival analysis. RESULTS: A total of 957 specimens were provided by 93 participants, of whom 78 (84 %) were vaccinated and 17 (16 %) were unvaccinated. No significant differences were detected in duration of RT-PCR positivity among vaccinated participants (median: 13 days) versus those unvaccinated (median: 13 days; p = 0.50), or in duration of culture positivity (medians: 5 days and 5 days; p = 0.29). Among vaccinated participants, overall duration of culture positivity was shorter among Moderna vaccine recipients versus Pfizer (p = 0.048) or Janssen (p = 0.003) vaccine recipients. In post-hoc analyses, Moderna vaccine recipients demonstrated significantly shorter duration of culture positivity compared to unvaccinated participants (p = 0.02). When restricted to participants without reported prior infection, the difference between Moderna vaccine recipients and unvaccinated participants was more pronounced (medians: 3 days and 6 days, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Infectious periods for vaccinated and unvaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 are similar and can be highly variable, though some vaccinated persons are likely infectious for shorter durations. These findings are critically important, especially in congregate settings where viral transmission can lead to large outbreaks. In such settings, clinicians and public health practitioners should consider vaccinated, infected persons to be no less infectious than unvaccinated, infected persons.

Changes in Opioid Dispensing by Medical Specialties After the Release of the 2016 CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain.

OBJECTIVE: To identify changes in opioid prescribing across a diverse array of medical specialties after the release of the 2016 CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series analysis of data from a commercial prescribing database. SUBJECTS: De-identified recipients of opioid prescriptions dispensed at U.S. retail pharmacies between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: Opioid dispensing data were obtained from the IQVIA Longitudinal Prescription (LRx) database, representing more than 800 million opioid prescriptions. Monthly dispensing rates, dosage in morphine milligram equivalents (MME), and mean prescription duration were calculated across 29 medical specialties. Changes in dispensing after the release of the 2016 CDC Guideline were assessed through interrupted time-series analysis. RESULTS: Declining trends in opioid dispensing accelerated in 24 of 29 specialty groups after the release of the CDC Guideline (P < 0.05 for 15 groups). Decreases were greatest among family medicine clinicians, where declines accelerated by 4.4 prescriptions per month per 100,000 persons (P = 0.005), and surgeons, where declines accelerated by 3.6 prescriptions per month per 100,000 (P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate that clinicians likely to provide primary care exhibited the greatest decreases in opioid dispensing. However, specialties outside the scope of the CDC Guideline (e.g., surgery) also exhibited accelerated decreases in prescribing. These declines illustrate that specialties beyond primary care could have interest in evaluating opioid prescribing practices, supporting the importance of specialty-specific guidance that balances the individualized risks and benefits of opioids and the role of non-opioid treatments.

Twelve-Month Follow-up of Early COVID-19 Cases in the United States: Cellular and Humoral Immune Longevity.

We quantify antibody and memory B-cell responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 at 6 and 12 months postinfection among 7 unvaccinated US coronavirus disease 2019 cases. All had detectable S-specific memory B cells and immunoglobulin G at both time points, with geometric mean titers of 117.2 BAU/mL and 84.0 BAU/mL at 6 and 12 months, respectively.

Relationship of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen and Reverse Transcription PCR Positivity for Viral Cultures.

We assessed the relationship between antigen and reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) test positivity and successful virus isolation. We found that antigen test results were more predictive of virus recovery than RT-PCR results. However, virus was isolated from some antigen-negative and RT-PCR‒positive paired specimens, providing support for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention antigen testing algorithm.

Quantitative comparison of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test and antigen testing algorithms: a decision analysis simulation model.

BACKGROUND: Antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 offer advantages over nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs, such as RT-PCR), including lower cost and rapid return of results, but show reduced sensitivity. Public health organizations recommend different strategies for utilizing NAATs and antigen tests. We sought to create a framework for the quantitative comparison of these recommended strategies based on their expected performance. METHODS: We utilized a decision analysis approach to simulate the expected outcomes of six testing algorithms analogous to strategies recommended by public health organizations. Each algorithm was simulated 50,000 times in a population of 100,000 persons seeking testing. Primary outcomes were number of missed cases, number of false-positive diagnoses, and total test volumes. Outcome medians and 95% uncertainty ranges (URs) were reported. RESULTS: Algorithms that use NAATs to confirm all negative antigen results minimized missed cases but required high NAAT capacity: 92,200 (95% UR: 91,200-93,200) tests (in addition to 100,000 antigen tests) at 10% prevalence. Selective use of NAATs to confirm antigen results when discordant with symptom status (e.g., symptomatic persons with negative antigen results) resulted in the most efficient use of NAATs, with 25 NAATs (95% UR: 13-57) needed to detect one additional case compared to exclusive use of antigen tests. CONCLUSIONS: No single SARS-CoV-2 testing algorithm is likely to be optimal across settings with different levels of prevalence and for all programmatic priorities. This analysis provides a framework for selecting setting-specific strategies to achieve acceptable balances and trade-offs between programmatic priorities and resource constraints.

Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant Infections Among Incarcerated Persons in a Federal Prison - Texas, July-August 2021.

Incarcerated populations have experienced disproportionately higher rates of COVID-19-related illness and death compared with the general U.S. population, due in part to congregate living environments that can facilitate rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and the high prevalence of underlying medical conditions associated with severe COVID-19 (1,2). The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant has caused outbreaks among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons in congregate settings and large public gatherings (3,4). During July 2021, a COVID-19 outbreak involving the Delta variant was identified in a federal prison in Texas, infecting 172 of 233 (74%) incarcerated persons in two housing units. The Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) partnered with CDC to investigate. CDC analyzed data on infection status, symptom onset date, hospitalizations, and deaths among incarcerated persons. The attack rate was higher among unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated persons (39 of 42, 93% versus 129 of 185, 70%; p = 0.002).† Four persons were hospitalized, three of whom were unvaccinated, and one person died, who was unvaccinated. Among a subset of 70 persons consenting to an embedded serial swabbing protocol, the median interval between symptom onset and last positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test result in fully vaccinated versus unvaccinated persons was similar (9 versus 11 days, p = 0.37). One or more specimens were culture-positive from five of 12 (42%) unvaccinated and 14 of 37 (38%) fully vaccinated persons for whom viral culture was attempted. In settings where physical distancing is challenging, including correctional and detention facilities, vaccination and implementation of multicomponent prevention strategies (e.g., testing, medical isolation, quarantine, and masking) are critical to limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission (5).

Antigen Test Performance Among Children and Adults at a SARS-CoV-2 Community Testing Site.

BACKGROUND: Performance characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests among children are limited despite the need for point-of-care testing in school and childcare settings. We describe children seeking SARS-CoV-2 testing at a community site and compare antigen test performance to real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and viral culture. METHODS: Two anterior nasal specimens were self-collected for BinaxNOW antigen and RT-PCR testing, along with demographics, symptoms, and exposure information from individuals ≥5 years at a community testing site. Viral culture was attempted on residual antigen or RT-PCR-positive specimens. Demographic and clinical characteristics, and the performance of SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests, were compared among children (<18 years) and adults. RESULTS: About 1 in 10 included specimens were from children (225/2110); 16.4% (37/225) were RT-PCR-positive. Cycle threshold values were similar among RT-PCR-positive specimens from children and adults (22.5 vs 21.3, P = .46) and among specimens from symptomatic and asymptomatic children (22.5 vs 23.2, P = .39). Sensitivity of antigen test compared to RT-PCR was 73.0% (27/37) among specimens from children and 80.8% (240/297) among specimens from adults; among specimens from children, specificity was 100% (188/188), positive and negative predictive values were 100% (27/27) and 94.9% (188/198), respectively. Virus was isolated from 51.4% (19/37) of RT-PCR-positive pediatric specimens; all 19 had positive antigen test results. CONCLUSIONS: With lower sensitivity relative to RT-PCR, antigen tests may not diagnose all positive COVID-19 cases; however, antigen testing identified children with live SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Performance of Repeat BinaxNOW Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antigen Testing in a Community Setting, Wisconsin, November 2020-December 2020.

Repeating the BinaxNOW antigen test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 using 2 groups of readers within 30 minutes resulted in high concordance (98.9%) in 2110 encounters. Same-day repeat antigen testing did not significantly improve test sensitivity (77.2% to 81.4%) while specificity remained high (99.6%).

Shedding of Culturable Virus, Seroconversion, and 6-Month Follow-up Antibody Responses in the First 14 Confirmed Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the United States.

We aimed to characterize presence of culturable virus in clinical specimens during acute illness, and antibody kinetics up to 6 months after symptom onset, among 14 early patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in the United States. We isolated viable severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 from real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-positive respiratory specimens collected during days 0-8 after onset, but not after. All 13 patients with 2 or more serum specimens developed anti-spike antibodies; 12 developed detectable neutralizing antibodies. We did not isolate virus after detection of neutralizing antibodies. Eight participants provided serum at 6 months after onset; all retained detectable anti-spike immunoglobulin G, and half had detectable neutralizing antibodies. Two participants reported not feeling fully recovered at 6 months.

The cost-effectiveness of scaling-up rapid point-of-care testing for early infant diagnosis of HIV in southern Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Early infant diagnosis (EID) and treatment can prevent much of the HIV-related morbidity and mortality experienced by children but is challenging to implement in sub-Saharan Africa. Point-of-care (PoC) testing would decentralize testing and increase access to rapid diagnosis. The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of PoC testing in Southern Province, Zambia. METHODS: A decision tree model was developed to compare health outcomes and costs between the standard of care (SoC) and PoC testing using GeneXpert and m-PIMA platforms. The primary health outcome was antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation within 60 days of sample collection. Additional outcomes included ART initiation by 12 months of age and death prior to ART initiation. Costs included both capital and recurrent costs. Health outcomes and costs were combined to create incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: The proportion of children initiating ART within 60 days increased from 27.8% with SoC to 79.8-82.8% with PoC testing depending on the algorithm and platform. The proportion of children initiating ART by 12 months of age increased from 50.9% with SoC to 84.0-86.5% with PoC testing. The proportion of HIV-infected children dying prior to ART initiation decreased from 18.1% with SoC to 3.8-4.6% with PoC testing. Total program costs were similar for the SoC and GeneXpert but higher for m-PIMA. ICERs for PoC testing were favorable, ranging from $23-1,609 for ART initiation within 60 days, $37-2,491 for ART initiation by 12 months of age, and $90-6,188 for deaths prior to ART initiation. Factors impacting the costs of PoC testing, including the lifespan of the testing instruments and integrated utilization of PoC platforms, had the biggest impact on the ICERs. Integrating utilization across programs decreased costs for the EID program, such that PoC testing was cost-saving in some situations. CONCLUSION: PoC testing has the potential to improve linkage to care and ART initiation for HIV-infected infants and should be considered for implementation within EID programs to achieve equity in access to HIV services and reduce HIV-related pediatric morbidity and mortality.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care platforms for infant diagnosis of HIV in sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Early infant diagnosis of HIV (EID) improves child survival through earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In many settings, ART initiation is hindered by delays in testing performed in centralized labs. Point-of-care (PoC) platforms offer opportunities to improve the timeliness of ART initiation. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to estimate the costs and performance of on-site PoC testing using three platforms (m-PIMA, GeneXpert IV, and GeneXpert Edge) compared with the standard of care (SoC). Primary outcomes included ART initiation within 60 days of sample collection, HIV-related mortality before ART initiation, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: PoC testing significantly increased ART initiation within 60 days (from 19% with SoC to 82-84% with PoC) and decreased HIV-related mortality (from 23% with SoC to 5% with PoC). ART initiation and mortality were similar across PoC platforms. When only used for EID and with high coverage of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs, ICERs for PoC testing compared with the SoC ranged from $430 to $1097 per additional infant on ART within 60 days and from $1527 to $3888 per death averted. PoC-based testing was more cost-effective in settings with lower PMTCT coverage, greater delays in the SoC, and when PoC instruments could be integrated with other disease programs. CONCLUSION: Our findings illustrate that PoC platforms can dramatically improve the timeliness of EID and linkage to HIV care. The cost-effectiveness of PoC platforms depends on the cost of PoC testing, existing access to diagnostic testing, and the ability to integrate PoC testing with non-EID programs.

Epidemiological Correlates of Polymerase Chain Reaction Cycle Threshold Values in the Detection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

BACKGROUND: Detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has principally been performed through the use of real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction testing. Results of such tests can be reported as cycle threshold (Ct) values, which may provide semi-quantitative or indirect measurements of viral load. Previous reports have examined temporal trends in Ct values over the course of a SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: Using testing data collected during a prospective household transmission investigation of outpatient and mild coronavirus disease 2019 cases, we examined the relationships between Ct values of the viral RNA N1 target and demographic, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics collected through participant interviews and daily symptom diaries. RESULTS: We found that Ct values are lowest (corresponding to a higher viral RNA concentration) soon after symptom onset and are significantly correlated with the time elapsed since onset (P < .001); within 7 days after symptom onset, the median Ct value was 26.5, compared with a median Ct value of 35.0 occurring 21 days after onset. Ct values were significantly lower among participants under 18 years of age (P = .01) and those reporting upper respiratory symptoms at the time of sample collection (P = .001), and were higher among participants reporting no symptoms (P = .05). CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasize the importance of early testing for SARS-CoV-2 among individuals with symptoms of respiratory illness, and allow cases to be identified and isolated when their viral shedding may be highest.

Recent Increase in COVID-19 Cases Reported Among Adults Aged 18-22 Years - United States, May 31-September 5, 2020.

Although children and young adults are reportedly at lower risk for severe disease and death from infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), than are persons in other age groups (1), younger persons can experience infection and subsequently transmit infection to those at higher risk for severe illness (2-4). Although at lower risk for severe disease, some young adults experience serious illness, and asymptomatic or mild cases can result in sequelae such as myocardial inflammation (5). In the United States, approximately 45% of persons aged 18-22 years were enrolled in colleges and universities in 2019 (6). As these institutions reopen, opportunities for infection increase; therefore, mitigation efforts and monitoring reports of COVID-19 cases among young adults are important. During August 2-September 5, weekly incidence of COVID-19 among persons aged 18-22 years rose by 55.1% nationally; across U.S. Census regions,* increases were greatest in the Northeast, where incidence increased 144.0%, and Midwest, where incidence increased 123.4%. During the same period, changes in testing volume for SARS-CoV-2 in this age group ranged from a 6.2% decline in the West to a 170.6% increase in the Northeast. In addition, the proportion of cases in this age group among non-Hispanic White (White) persons increased from 33.8% to 77.3% during May 31-September 5. Mitigation and preventive measures targeted to young adults can likely reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission among their contacts and communities. As colleges and universities resume operations, taking steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19 among young adults is critical (7).

Race, Ethnicity, and Age Trends in Persons Who Died from COVID-19 - United States, May-August 2020.

During February 12-October 15, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in approximately 7,900,000 aggregated reported cases and approximately 216,000 deaths in the United States.* Among COVID-19-associated deaths reported to national case surveillance during February 12-May 18, persons aged ≥65 years and members of racial and ethnic minority groups were disproportionately represented (1). This report describes demographic and geographic trends in COVID-19-associated deaths reported to the National Vital Statistics System† (NVSS) during May 1-August 31, 2020, by 50 states and the District of Columbia. During this period, 114,411 COVID-19-associated deaths were reported. Overall, 78.2% of decedents were aged ≥65 years, and 53.3% were male; 51.3% were non-Hispanic White (White), 24.2% were Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic), and 18.7% were non-Hispanic Black (Black). The number of COVID-19-associated deaths decreased from 37,940 in May to 17,718 in June; subsequently, counts increased to 30,401 in July and declined to 28,352 in August. From May to August, the percentage distribution of COVID-19-associated deaths by U.S. Census region increased from 23.4% to 62.7% in the South and from 10.6% to 21.4% in the West. Over the same period, the percentage distribution of decedents who were Hispanic increased from 16.3% to 26.4%. COVID-19 remains a major public health threat regardless of age or race and ethnicity. Deaths continued to occur disproportionately among older persons and certain racial and ethnic minorities, particularly among Hispanic persons. These results can inform public health messaging and mitigation efforts focused on prevention and early detection of infection among disproportionately affected groups.

Spatial distribution of people diagnosed with tuberculosis through routine and active case finding: a community-based study in Kampala, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Routine tuberculosis (TB) notifications are geographically heterogeneous, but their utility in predicting the location of undiagnosed TB cases is unclear. We aimed to identify small-scale geographic areas with high TB notification rates based on routinely collected data and to evaluate whether these areas have a correspondingly high rate of undiagnosed prevalent TB. METHODS: We used routinely collected data to identify geographic areas with high TB notification rates and evaluated the extent to which these areas correlated with the location of undiagnosed cases during a subsequent community-wide active case finding intervention in Kampala, Uganda. We first enrolled all adults who lived within 35 contiguous zones and were diagnosed through routine care at four local TB Diagnosis and Treatment Units. We calculated average monthly TB notification rates in each zone and defined geographic areas of "high risk" as zones that constituted the 20% of the population with highest notification rates. We compared the observed proportion of TB notifications among residents of these high-risk zones to the expected proportion, using simulated estimates based on population size and random variation alone. We then evaluated the extent to which these high-risk zones identified areas with high burdens of undiagnosed TB during a subsequent community-based active case finding campaign using a chi-square test. RESULTS: We enrolled 45 adults diagnosed with TB through routine practices and who lived within the study area (estimated population of 49 527). Eighteen zones reported no TB cases in the 9-month period; among the remaining zones, monthly TB notification rates ranged from 3.9 to 39.4 per 100 000 population. The five zones with the highest notification rates constituted 62% (95% CI: 47-75%) of TB cases and 22% of the population-significantly higher than would be expected if population size and random chance were the only determinants of zone-to-zone variation (48%, 95% simulation interval: 40-59%). These five high-risk zones accounted for 42% (95% CI: 34-51%) of the 128 cases detected during the subsequent community-based case finding intervention, which was significantly higher than the 22% expected by chance (P < 0.001) but lower than the 62% of cases notified from those zones during the pre-intervention period (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial heterogeneity in routine TB notification rates at the zone level. Using facility-based TB notification rates to prioritize high-yield areas for active case finding could double the yield of such case-finding interventions.