Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and non-accidental mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The health effects of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) continue to be of important public health interest across the globe. Following its 2010 review, the Health Effects Institute appointed a new expert Panel to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations between long-term exposure to TRAP and selected health outcomes. This paper describes the main findings of the systematic review on non-accidental mortality. METHODS: The Panel used a systematic approach to conduct the review. An extensive search was conducted of literature published between 1980 and 2019. A new exposure framework was developed to determine whether a study was sufficiently specific to TRAP, which included studies beyond the near-roadway environment. We performed random-effects meta-analysis when at least three estimates were available of an association between a specific exposure and outcome. We evaluated confidence in the evidence using a modified Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach, supplemented with a broader narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Thirty-six cohort studies were included. Virtually all studies adjusted for a large number of individual and area-level covariates-including smoking, body mass index, and individual and area-level socioeconomic status-and were judged at a low or moderate risk for bias. Most studies were conducted in North America and Europe, and a few were based in Asia and Australia. The meta-analytic summary estimates for nitrogen dioxide, elemental carbon and fine particulate matter-pollutants with more than 10 studies-were 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.06), 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) and 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) per 10, 1 and 5 µg/m3, respectively. Effect estimates are interpreted as the relative risk of mortality when the exposure differs with the selected increment. The confidence in the evidence for these pollutants was judged as high, because of upgrades for monotonic exposure-response and consistency across populations. The consistent findings across geographical regions, exposure assessment methods and confounder adjustment resulted in a high confidence rating using a narrative approach as well. CONCLUSIONS: The overall confidence in the evidence for a positive association between long-term exposure to TRAP and non-accidental mortality was high.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains the second cause of death worldwide. The mechanisms underlying the adverse association of exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) with overall cardiovascular disease may also apply to stroke. Our objective was to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations of long-term exposure to TRAP with stroke. METHODS: PubMed and LUDOK electronic databases were searched systematically for observational epidemiological studies from 1980 through 2019 on long-term exposure to TRAP and stroke with an update in January 2022. TRAP was defined according to a comprehensive protocol based on pollutant and exposure assessment methods or proximity metrics. Study selection, data extraction, risk of bias (RoB) and confidence assessments were conducted according to standardized protocols. We performed meta-analyses using random effects models; sensitivity analyses were assessed by geographic area, RoB, fatality, traffic specificity and new studies. RESULTS: Nineteen studies were included. The meta-analytic relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals) were: 1.03 (0.98-1.09) per 1 µg/m3 EC, 1.09 (0.96-1.23) per 10 µg/m3 PM10, 1.08 (0.89-1.32) per 5 µg/m3 PM2.5, 0.98 (0.92; 1.05) per 10 µg/m3 NO2 and 0.99 (0.94; 1.04) per 20 µg/m3 NOx with little to moderate heterogeneity based on 6, 5, 4, 7 and 8 studies, respectively. The confidence assessments regarding the quality of the body of evidence and separately regarding the presence of an association of TRAP with stroke considering all available evidence were rated low and moderate, respectively. CONCLUSION: The available literature provides low to moderate evidence for an association of TRAP with stroke.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and selected health outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The health effects of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) continue to be of important public health interest. Following its well-cited 2010 critical review, the Health Effects Institute (HEI) appointed a new expert Panel to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations between long-term exposure to TRAP and selected adverse health outcomes. Health outcomes were selected based on evidence of causality for general air pollution (broader than TRAP) cited in authoritative reviews, relevance for public health and policy, and resources available. The Panel used a systematic approach to search the literature, select studies for inclusion in the review, assess study quality, summarize results, and reach conclusions about the confidence in the evidence. An extensive search was conducted of literature published between January 1980 and July 2019 on selected health outcomes. A new exposure framework was developed to determine whether a study was sufficiently specific to TRAP. In total, 353 studies were included in the review. Respiratory effects in children (118 studies) and birth outcomes (86 studies) were the most commonly studied outcomes. Fewer studies investigated cardiometabolic effects (57 studies), respiratory effects in adults (50 studies), and mortality (48 studies). The findings from the systematic review, meta-analyses, and evaluation of the quality of the studies and potential biases provided an overall high or moderate-to-high level of confidence in an association between long-term exposure to TRAP and the adverse health outcomes all-cause, circulatory, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer mortality, asthma onsetin chilldren and adults, and acute lower respiratory infections in children. The evidence was considered moderate, low or very low for the other selected outcomes. In light of the large number of people exposed to TRAP - both in and beyond the near-road environment - the Panel concluded that the overall high or moderate-to-high confidence in the evidence for an association between long-term exposure to TRAP and several adverse health outcomes indicates that exposures to TRAP remain an important public health concern and deserve greater attention from the public and from policymakers.

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Spatial variability in air pollution exposure in relation to socioeconomic indicators in nine European metropolitan areas: A study on environmental inequality.

A limited number of studies have addressed environmental inequality, using various study designs and methodologies and often reaching contradictory results. Following a standardized multi-city data collection process within the European project EURO-HEALTHY, we conducted an ecological study to investigate the spatial association between nitrogen dioxide (NO2), as a surrogate for traffic related air pollution, and ten socioeconomic indicators at local administrative unit level in nine European Metropolitan Areas. We applied mixed models for the associations under investigation with random intercepts per Metropolitan Area, also accounting for the spatial correlation. The stronger associations were observed between NO2 levels and population density, population born outside the European Union (EU28), total crimes per 100,000 inhabitants and unemployment rate that displayed a highly statistically significant trend of increasing concentrations with increasing levels of the indicators. Specifically, the highest vs the lowest quartile of each indicator above was associated with 48.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 42.9%, 54.8%), 30.9% (95%CI: 22.1%, 40.2%), 19.8% (95%CI: 13.4%, 26.6%) and 15.8% (95%CI: 9.9%, 22.1%) increase in NO2 respectively. The association with population density most probably reflects the higher volume in vehicular traffic, which is the main source of NO2 in urban areas. Higher pollution levels in areas with higher percentages of people born outside EU28, crime or unemployment rates indicate that worse air quality is typically encountered in deprived European urban areas. Policy makers should consider spatial environmental inequalities to better inform actions aiming to lower urban air pollution levels that will subsequently lead to improved quality of life, public health and health equity across the population.

Has the risk of mortality related to short-term exposure to particles changed over the past years in Athens, Greece?

Although the health effects of short-term exposure to ambient particles have been well documented, there is a need to update scientific knowledge due to the continuously changing profile of the air pollution mixture. Furthermore the effect of the severe economic crisis in Greece that started in 2008 on previously reported associations has not been studied. We assessed the change in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to PM10 in Athens, Greece during 2001-12. Time-series data on the daily concentrations of regulated particles and all cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were analyzed using overdispersed Poisson regression models, controlling for time-varying confounders such as seasonality, meteorology, influenza outbreaks, summer holidays and day of the week. We assessed changes in risk over time by inclusion of an interaction term between particles' levels and time or predefined periods, i.e. 2001-07 and 2008-12. While the related mortality risks increased over the analyzed period, the difference before and after 2008 was significant only for total mortality (p-value for interaction .03) and driven by the difference observed among those ≥75 years. An interquartile increase in PM10 before 2008 was associated with 1.51% increase in deaths among ≥75 years (95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.62%, 2.40%), while after 2008 with a 2.61% increase (95%CI: 1.72%, 3.51%) (p-value for interaction .01). Our results indicate that despite the decline in particles' concentration in Athens, Greece during 2001-12 the associated mortality risk has possibly increased, suggesting that the economic crisis initiated in 2008 may have led to changes in the particles' composition due to the ageing of the vehicular fleet and the increase in the use of biomass fuel for heating.

Particulate matter air pollution components and risk for lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a human lung carcinogen; however, the components responsible have not been identified. We assessed the associations between PM components and lung cancer incidence. METHODS: We used data from 14 cohort studies in eight European countries. We geocoded baseline addresses and assessed air pollution with land-use regression models for eight elements (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) in size fractions of PM2.5 and PM10. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effect models for meta-analysis. RESULTS: The 245,782 cohort members contributed 3,229,220 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean, 13.1 years), 1878 incident cases of lung cancer were diagnosed. In the meta-analyses, elevated hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer were associated with all elements except V; none was statistically significant. In analyses restricted to participants who did not change residence during follow-up, statistically significant associations were found for PM2.5 Cu (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53 per 5 ng/m(3)), PM10 Zn (1.28; 1.02-1.59 per 20 ng/m(3)), PM10 S (1.58; 1.03-2.44 per 200 ng/m(3)), PM10 Ni (1.59; 1.12-2.26 per 2 ng/m(3)) and PM10 K (1.17; 1.02-1.33 per 100 ng/m(3)). In two-pollutant models, associations between PM10 and PM2.5 and lung cancer were largely explained by PM2.5 S. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the association between PM in air pollution and lung cancer can be attributed to various PM components and sources. PM containing S and Ni might be particularly important.

Expression of estrogen receptors in non-malignant mammary tissue modifies the association between insulin-like growth factor 1 and breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported that the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) is positively associated with estrogen receptor-positive [ER(+)] breast cancer risk, whereas there is little or no association with respect to ER(-) breast cancer. All comparisons of ER(+) breast cancer cases, however, have been made versus healthy controls, for whom there is no information about the ER expression in their mammary gland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the context of a case-control investigation conducted in Athens, Greece, we studied 102 women with incident ERα(+) breast cancer and compared their IGF-1 blood levels with those of 178 ERα(+) and 83 ERα(-) women with benign breast disease (BBD) who underwent biopsies in the context of their standard medical care. Data were analysed using multiple logistic regression and controlling for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: ERα(+) breast cancer patients had higher IGF-1 levels compared with women with BBD [odds ratio (OR) 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.94, per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in IGF-1 levels]. When ERα status of women with BBD was taken into account, the difference in IGF-1 levels between ERα(+) breast cancer patients and women with BBD was clearly driven by the comparison with BBD women who were ERα(+) (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.31-2.89 per 1 SD increase in IGF-1 levels), whereas there was essentially no association with IGF-1 levels when ERα(+) breast cancer patients were compared with ERα(-) BBD women. These contrasts were particularly evident among post/peri-menopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence in support of an interaction of IGF-1 with the expression of ERα in the non-malignant mammary tissue in the context of breast cancer pathogenesis. This is in line with previous evidence suggesting that IGF-1 increases the risk of ER(+) breast cancer.

A comparison of hormonal profiles between breast cancer and benign breast disease: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Benign breast disease (BBD), particularly proliferative BBD, is an established breast cancer risk factor. However, there has been no systematic attempt to compare the hormonal profiles of the two conditions. In a case-control investigation in Athens, Greece, we compared levels of estrogens, testosterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), as well as their principal binding proteins, between breast cancer patients, women with BBD by histological type (proliferative and nonproliferative) and women with no breast pathology. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied 466 women with incident breast cancer, 704 women with BBD and 244 healthy women. We used multiple regression to compare log-transformed serum hormone levels of breast cancer patients with those of healthy women and women with BBD by histological type (proliferative and nonproliferative BBD). RESULTS: The hormonal profile of breast cancer in our study was in line with the generally accepted hormonal profile of this disease, as reported from large cohort studies. Compared with healthy women, breast cancer patients tended to have higher levels of steroid hormones. The evidence was strong for estrone (difference 21.5%, P < 0.001), weaker for testosterone (difference 15.8%, P = 0.07) and weaker still for estradiol (difference 12.0%, P = 0.18). Also compared with healthy women, breast cancer patients had barely higher levels of IGF-1 (difference 2.0%, P = 0.51), but had significantly lower levels of IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) (difference -6.7%, P = 0.001). Compared with women with BBD, breast cancer patients had nonstatistically significantly lower levels of steroid hormones, but they had higher levels of IGF-1 [difference 5.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7% to 10.6%] and lower levels of IGFBP-3 (difference -3.7%, 95% CI -6.7% to -0.7%). Differences were more pronounced when breast cancer patients were contrasted to women with proliferative BBD. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that high levels of IGF-1 may be an important factor toward the evolution of BBD to breast cancer.

Soluble Fas and Fas-ligand levels in mid-trimester amniotic fluid and their associations with severe small for gestational age fetuses: a prospective observational study.

We aimed to determine the second-trimester amniotic fluid (AF) levels of soluble Fas (sFas) and Fas-ligand (FasL) and investigate their association with fetal growth. Therefore, sFas and FasL levels were measured by enzyme immunoassay in the AF of 21 small for gestational age (SGA), 13 large for gestational age (LGA), and 44 appropriate for gestational age (AGA) fetuses of pregnant women who underwent amniocentesis at between 15 and 22 weeks gestation. Our study results showed that sFas and FasL levels were detectable in AF. sFAS median (25th-75th centile) levels were 3.8 (2.8-4.6) ng/ml in SGA, 3.6 (3.1-4.5) ng/ml in AGA, and 4.0 (3.1-4.4) ng/ml in LGA. FasL median (25th-75th centile) levels were 26.0 (20.3-32.7) pg/ml in SGA, 22.7 (18.4-28.5) pg/ml in AGA, and 21.5 (15.8-30.9) pg/ml in LGA. The differences were not statistically significant. Nevertheless, statistically significant differentiation of FasL levels existed when SGA fetuses in the extremes of distribution (≤5th, ≤2.5th centile) were considered. This is the first study presenting sFas and FasL concentrations in early second-trimester amniotic fluid in AGA, SGA, and LGA fetuses. We found indications that severe and very severe SGA fetuses (≤5th and ≤2.5th centile) have high levels of FasL in the amniotic fluid. This finding probably reflects the increased rate of apoptosis that is assumed to exist in cases of extreme growth restriction.

Resistin in mid-trimester amniotic fluid in trisomy 21.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine whether resistin is present in second trimester amniotic fluid from trisomy 21 (also known as Down's syndrome) pregnancies and whether its concentration differs compared with euploid pregnancies. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 58 women in the mid-trimester of pregnancy who underwent amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis, 31 of whom carried a single fetus with diagnosed trisomy 21 (study group) and the rest with normal karyotype (control group, n = 27). Groups were matched for maternal and gestational age. Levels of resistin in amniotic fluid were measured by a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. RESULTS: Resistin was detected in all amniotic fluid samples. Its median concentration in the second trimester amniotic fluid of trisomy 21 pregnancies (2.1 ng/ml) was statistically significantly lower (p value <0.001) in comparison with that in euploid pregnancies (3.3 ng/ml). CONCLUSIONS: Resistin is a physiologic constituent of second trimester amniotic fluid. Lower levels of amniotic fluid resistin in pregnancies with trisomy 21 may reflect altered metabolic pathways in utero that could possibly be related with phenotypic features of the syndrome.

The hormonal profile of benign breast disease.

BACKGROUND: Limited information exists about the endocrine milieu of benign breast disease (BBD), a documented breast cancer risk factor. We compared blood levels of estrogens, testosterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) between BBD patients by histological type and women without breast pathology. METHODS: We studied 578 BBD patients and 178 healthy women in Athens, Greece, who provided blood samples, and completed interviewer-administered questionnaires. RESULTS: Of the BBD patients, 254 had non-proliferative disease, 268 proliferative disease without atypia and 56 atypical hyperplasia. Comparing BBD patients with healthy women, the per cent differences (and 95% confidence intervals) for blood hormones, among pre-menopausal and peri/post-menopausal women, respectively, were: 22.4% (-4.0%, 56.1%) and 32.0% (5.6%, 65.1%) for estradiol; 26.2% (10.1%, 44.8%) and 30.9% (16.8%, 46.6%) for estrone; 19.5% (3.1%, 38.4%) and 16.5% (-5.0%, 42.9%) for testosterone; and -5.2% (-13.8%, 4.4%) and -12.1% (-19.8%, -3.6%) for IGF-1. Steroid hormones tended to be higher in proliferative compared with non-proliferative BBD. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating steroid hormones tend to be higher among women with BBD than women with no breast pathology and higher in proliferative than non-proliferative disease; these patterns are more evident among peri/post-menopausal women. In peri/post-menopausal women IGF-1 was lower among women with BBD compared with healthy women.

Three-dimensional ultrasound and three-dimensional power Doppler improve the preoperative evaluation of complex benign ovarian lesions.

PURPOSE OF INVESTIGATION: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of three-dimensional ultrasound (3D-US) and three-dimensional power-Doppler (3DPD-US) as adjuncts to conventional B-mode-US in evaluation of complex benign ovarian lesions. METHODS: Transvaginal B-mode-US, 3D-US and 3DPD-US were performed in 29 patients with unilateral ovarian lesion. Patients were classified as low or high risk for malignancy according to a standardized scoring system composed of ten morphological and vascular parameters. Preoperative scores were matched to the histological results and the diagnostic performance of the scoring system was calculated. RESULTS: Seven out of the 16 cases of endometriomas (44%) were graded as low risk masses according to B-mode-US, while the addition of 3D-US and 3DPD-US increased the accuracy to 56% and 94%, respectively. All dermoid cysts were classified as high risk cases by B-mode-US, but 3D-US and 3DPD-US correctly classified 14% and 57% of cases, respectively. The use of B-mode-US, 3D-US and 3DPD-US correctly classified all four cystadenomas. Only the use of 3DPD-US correctly classified one out of two hemorrhagic corpus luteum cases, whereas the other imaging modalities characterized these lesions as high risk. The overall diagnostic accuracy increased from 38%, 48%, ana 83% with the application of B-mode-US alone, or combined with 3D-US and 3DPD-US, respectively. CONCLUSION: Conventional ultrasound supplemented with 3D-US and 3DPD-US and the evaluation of findings according to a specific scoring system can facilitate the preoperative classification of complex benign ovarian lesions.

Acute effects of air pollution on pediatric asthma exacerbation: evidence of association and effect modification.

We investigated the short-term effects of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 µg/m(3) (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and ozone (O(3)) on pediatric asthma emergency admissions in Athens, Greece over the period 2001-2004. We explored effect modification patterns by season, sex, age and by the presence of desert dust transported mainly from the Sahara area. We used daily time-series data provided by the children's hospitals and the fixed monitoring stations. The associations were investigated using Poisson regression models controlling for seasonality, weather, influenza episodes, day of the week and holiday effects. A 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM(10) was associated with a 2.54% increase (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.06%, 5.08%) in the number of pediatric asthma hospital admissions, while the same increase in SO(2) was associated with a 5.98% (95% CI: 0.88%, 11.33%) increase. O(3) was associated with a statistically significant increase in asthma admissions among older children in the summer. Our findings provide limited evidence of an association between NO(2) exposure and asthma exacerbation. Statistically significant PM(10) effects were higher during winter and during desert dust days, while SO(2) effects occurred mainly during spring. Our study confirms previously reported PM(10) effects on emergency hospital admissions for pediatric asthma and further provides evidence of stronger effects during desert dust days. We additionally report severe effects of SO(2), even at today's low concentration levels.

Maternal and cord blood hormone levels in the United States and China and the intrauterine origin of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is less common in China than in the United States and perinatal characteristics predict breast cancer risk in the offspring. We determined levels of pregnancy hormones in Boston and Shanghai to identify those possibly involved in the intrauterine origin of breast cancer. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: We compared maternal and cord blood levels of estradiol, estriol, testosterone, progesterone, prolactin, insulin-like growth factors (IGF) 1 and 2, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3, adiponectin and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in 241 Caucasian and 295 Chinese women. RESULTS: In both centers, hormone levels at the 16th were predictive of those at the 27th gestational week, but there was little correlation between maternal and cord blood levels. In cord blood, we found significantly (P < 0.01) higher levels of estradiol (44.2%), testosterone (54.5%), IGF-2 (22.7%) and strikingly SHBG (104.6%) in Shanghai women, whereas the opposite was true for IGF-1 (-36.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Taking into account the current understanding of the plausible biological role of the examined endocrine factors, those likely to be involved in the intrauterine origin of breast cancer are SHBG and IGF-2, with higher cord blood levels among Chinese, and IGF-1, with higher cord blood levels among Caucasian women.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to ambient ozone in the APHEA project.

BACKGROUND: The temporal pattern of effects of summertime ozone (O(3)) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were investigated in 21 European cities participating in the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach) project, which is fundamental in determining the importance of the effect in terms of life loss. METHODS: Data from each city were analysed separately using distributed lag models with up to 21 lags. City-specific air pollution estimates were regressed on city-specific covariates to obtain overall estimates and to explore sources of possible heterogeneity. RESULTS: Stronger effects on respiratory mortality that extend to a period of 2 weeks were found. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in O(3) was associated with a 0.36% (95% CI -0.21% to 0.94%) increase in respiratory deaths for lag 0 and with 3.35% (95% CI 1.90% to 4.83%) for lags 0-20. Significant adverse health effects were found of summer O(3) (June-August) on total and cardiovascular mortality that persist up to a week, but are counterbalanced by negative effects thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that studies on acute health effects of O(3) using single-day exposures may have overestimated the effects on total and cardiovascular mortality, but underestimated the effects on respiratory mortality.

Insulin-like growth factor levels in cord blood, birth weight and breast cancer risk.

Breast cancer incidence and birth weight are higher among Caucasian than Asian women, and birth size has been positively associated with breast cancer risk. Pregnancy hormone levels, however, have been generally lower in Caucasian than Asian women. We studied components of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system in cord blood from 92 singleton babies born in Boston, USA, and 110 born in Shanghai, China, in 1994-1995. Cord blood IGF-1 was significantly higher among Caucasian compared with Chinese babies (P<10(-6)). The opposite was noted for IGF-2 (P approximately 10(-4)). IGF-1 was significantly positively associated with birth weight and birth length in Boston, but not Shanghai. In contrast, stronger positive, though statistically non-significant, associations of IGF-2 with birth size were only evident in Shanghai. The associations of birth weight and birth length were positive and significant in taller women (for IGF-1 in Boston P approximately 0.003 and 0.03, respectively; for IGF-2 in Shanghai P approximately 0.05 and approximately 0.04, respectively), among whom maternal anthropometry does not exercise strong constraints in foetal growth. The documentation of higher cord blood levels of IGF-1, a principal growth hormone that does not cross the placenta, among Caucasian than in Asian newborns is concordant with breast cancer incidence in these populations.

Seasonal confounding in air pollution and health time-series studies: effect on air pollution effect estimates.

A major statistical challenge in air pollution and health time-series studies is to adequately control for confounding effects of time-varying covariates. Daily health outcome counts are most commonly analysed by Poisson regression models, adjusted for overdispersion, with air pollution levels included as a linear predictor and smooth functions for calendar time and weather variables to adjust for time-varying confounders. Various smoothers have been used so far, but the optimal strategy for choosing smoothers and their degree of smoothing remains controversial. In this work, we evaluate the performance of various smoothers with different criteria for choosing the degree of smoothing in terms of bias and efficiency of the air pollution effect estimate in a simulation study. The evaluated approaches were also applied to real mortality data from 22 European cities. The simulation study imitated a multi-city study. Data were generated from a fully parametric model. Model selection methods which optimize prediction may lead to increased biases in the air pollution effect estimate. Minimization of the absolute value of the sum of the partial autocorrelation function of the model's residuals (PACF), as a criterion to choose the degree of smoothness, gave the smallest biases. The penalized splines (PS) method with a large number of effective dfs (e.g. 8-12 per year) could be used as the basic, relatively conservative, analysis whereas the PS and natural splines in combination with PACF could be applied to provide a reasonable range of the effect estimate.

Short-term effects of nitrogen dioxide on mortality: an analysis within the APHEA project.

The short-term effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) on total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in 30 European cities participating in the Air Pollution on Health: a European Approach (APHEA)-2 project were investigated. The association was examined using hierarchical models implemented in two stages. In the first stage, data from each city were analysed separately, whereas in the second stage, the city-specific air pollution estimates were regressed on city-specific covariates to obtain overall estimates and to explore sources of possible heterogeneity. A significant association of NO(2) with total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was found, with stronger effects on cause-specific mortality. There was evidence of confounding in respiratory mortality with black smoke and sulphur dioxide. The effect of NO(2) on total and cardiovascular mortality was observed mainly in western and southern European cities, and was larger when smoking prevalence was lower and household gas consumption was higher. The effect of NO(2) on respiratory mortality was higher in cities with a larger proportion of elderly persons in the population and higher levels of particulate matter with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 mum. The results of this large study are consistent with an independent effect of nitrogen dioxide on mortality, but the role of nitrogen dioxide as a surrogate of other unmeasured pollutants cannot be completely ruled out.

Flavonoid classes and risk of peripheral arterial occlusive disease: a case-control study in Greece.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between specific flavonoid classes and peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD), an important manifestation of atherosclerosis. DESIGN: Using data from a case-control study conducted in Greece in 1980 on the nutritional epidemiology of PAOD, we have exploited recently published databases on the content of foods in specific flavonoid classes to assess the relation between intake of these compounds and PAOD. SETTING: A major teaching hospital in Athens, Greece. SUBJECTS: Cases were 100 patients with PAOD and controls 100 patients with minor surgical conditions admitted to the same hospital. INTERVENTIONS: No interventions. All cases and controls were interviewed in the hospital wards, and a 110-food item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire was administered by the same interviewer. RESULTS: Flavonols, flavones and perhaps flavan-3-ols were inversely associated with PAOD risk, the odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for increments equal to the corresponding standard deviations being 0.41 (0.20-0.86), 0.56 (0.32-0.96) and 0.53 (0.26-1.05), respectively. Total flavonoids were also significantly inversely associated with PAOD. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of these results, the biological properties of flavonoids and evidence concerning their relation to other manifestations of atherosclerosis, we conclude that dietary intake of specific classes of flavonoids, as well as total flavonoids, may have a protective effect against PAOD. SPONSORSHIP: This study was partially supported by a grant to Harvard University by the Samourkas Foundation.