Premorbid physical activity and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: High to moderate levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with low risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of PA in midlife extend to cardiovascular health following myocardial infarction (MI) in later life. METHODS: Among 1,111 ARIC participants with incident MI during ARIC follow-up (mean age 73 [SD 9] years at MI, 54% men, 21% Black), PA on average 11.9 (SD 6.9) years prior to incident MI (premorbid PA) was evaluated as the average score of PA between visit 1 (1987-89) and visit 3 (1993-95) using a modified Baecke questionnaire. Total and domain-specific PA (sport, non-sport leisure, and work PA) was analyzed for associations with composite and individual outcomes of mortality, recurrent MI, and stroke after index MI using multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.6 (IQI 1.0-10.5) years after incident MI, 823 participants (74%) developed a composite outcome. The 10-year cumulative incidence of the composite outcome was lower in the highest, as compared to the lowest tertile of premorbid total PA (56% vs. 70%, respectively). This association remained statistically significant even after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.80 [0.67-0.96] for the highest vs. lowest tertile). For individual outcomes, high premorbid total PA was associated with a low risk of recurrent MI (corresponding aHR 0.64 [0.44, 0.93]). When domain-specific PA was analyzed, similar results were seen for sport and work PA. The association was strongest in the first year following MI (e.g., aHR of composite outcome 0.66 [95% CI 0.47, 0.91] for the highest vs. lowest tertile of total PA). CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid PA was associated positively with post-MI cardiovascular health. Our results demonstrate the additional prognostic advantages of PA beyond reducing the risk of incident MI.

Association of Low Glomerular Filtration Rate With Adverse Outcomes at Older Age in a Large Population With Routinely Measured Cystatin C.

BACKGROUND: The commonly accepted threshold of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to define chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. This threshold is based partly on associations between estimated GFR (eGFR) and the frequency of adverse outcomes. The association is weaker in older adults, which has created disagreement about the appropriateness of the threshold for these persons. In addition, the studies measuring these associations included relatively few outcomes and estimated GFR on the basis of creatinine level (eGFRcr), which may be less accurate in older adults. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations in older adults between eGFRcr versus eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C levels (eGFRcr-cys) and 8 outcomes. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Stockholm, Sweden, 2010 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 82 154 participants aged 65 years or older with outpatient creatinine and cystatin C testing. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT); incidence rate ratios for recurrent hospitalizations, infection, myocardial infarction or stroke, heart failure, and acute kidney injury. RESULTS: The associations between eGFRcr-cys and outcomes were monotonic, but most associations for eGFRcr were U-shaped. In addition, eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with outcomes than eGFRcr. For example, the adjusted hazard ratios for 60 versus 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 for all-cause mortality were 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.3) for eGFRcr-cys and 1.0 (CI, 0.9 to 1.0) for eGFRcr, and for KFRT they were 2.6 (CI, 1.2 to 5.8) and 1.4 (CI, 0.7 to 2.8), respectively. Similar findings were observed in subgroups, including those with a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio below 30 mg/g. LIMITATION: No GFR measurements. CONCLUSION: Compared with low eGFRcr in older patients, low eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with adverse outcomes and the associations were more uniform. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swedish Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.

Universal Risk Prediction for Individuals With and Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines recommend distinct risk classification systems for primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention. However, both systems rely on similar predictors (eg, age and diabetes), indicating the possibility of a universal risk prediction approach for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). OBJECTIVES: The authors examined the performance of predictors in persons with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and developed and validated a universal risk prediction model. METHODS: Among 9,138 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) participants with (n = 609) and without (n = 8,529) ASCVD at baseline (1996-1998), we examined established predictors in the risk classification systems and other predictors, such as body mass index and cardiac biomarkers (troponin and natriuretic peptide), using Cox models with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We also evaluated model performance. RESULTS: Over a follow-up of approximately 20 years, there were 3,209 MACEs (2,797 for no prior ASCVD). Most predictors showed similar associations with MACE regardless of baseline ASCVD status. A universal risk prediction model with the predictors (eg, established predictors, cardiac biomarkers) identified by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and bootstrapping showed good discrimination for both groups (c-statistics of 0.747 and 0.691, respectively), and risk classification and showed excellent calibration, irrespective of ASCVD status. This universal prediction approach identified individuals without ASCVD who had a higher risk than some individuals with ASCVD and was validated externally in 5,322 participants in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). CONCLUSIONS: A universal risk prediction approach performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach could facilitate the transition from primary to secondary prevention by streamlining risk classification and discussion between clinicians and patients.

Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

Implementation of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation in a United States Nephrology Clinic.

Introduction: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) estimates a person's risk of kidney failure and has great potential utility in clinical care. Methods: We used mixed methods to explore implementation of the KFRE in nephrology clinics. Results: KFRE scores were integrated into the electronic health record at Johns Hopkins Medicine and were displayed to nephrology providers. Documentation of KFRE scores increased over time, reaching 25% of eligible outpatient nephrology clinic notes at month 11. Three providers documented KFRE scores in >75% of notes, whereas 25 documented scores in <10% of notes. Surveys and focus groups of nephrology providers were conducted to probe provider views on the KFRE. Survey respondents (n = 25) reported variability in use of KFRE for decisions such as maintaining nephrology care, referring for transplant evaluation, or providing dialysis modality education. Provider perspectives on the use of KFRE, assessed in 2 focus groups of 4 providers each, included 3 common themes as follows: (i) KFRE scores may be most impactful in the care of specific subsets of people with chronic kidney disease (CKD); (ii) there is uncertainty about KFRE risk-based thresholds to guide clinical care; and (iii) education of patients, nephrology providers, and non-nephrology providers on appropriate interpretations of KFRE scores may help maximize their utility. Conclusion: Implementation of the KFRE was limited by non-uniform provider adoption of its use, and limited knowledge about utilization of the KFRE in clinical decisions.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Impact of Frontline Ivosidenib on Volumetric Growth Patterns in Isocitrate Dehydrogenase-mutant Astrocytic and Oligodendroglial Tumors.

PURPOSE: Isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)-mutant gliomas are usually treated with radiotherapy and chemotherapy, which increases the risk for neurocognitive sequelae during patients' most productive years. We report our experience using off-label first-in-class mutant IDH1 inhibitor ivosidenib and its impact on tumor volume in IDH-mutant gliomas. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We retrospectively analyzed patients ages ≥18 years with radiation/chemotherapy-naïve, mutant IDH1, nonenhancing, radiographically active, grade 2/3 gliomas, and ≥2 pretreatment and ≥2 on-treatment ivosidenib MRIs. T2/FLAIR-based tumor volumes, growth rates, and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. log-linear mixed-effect modeling of growth curves adjusted for grade, histology, and age was performed. RESULTS: We analyzed 116 MRIs of 12 patients [10 males, median age 46 years (range: 26-60)]: 8 astrocytomas (50% grade 3) and 4 grade 2 oligodendrogliomas. Median on-drug follow-up was 13.2 months [interquartile range (IQR): 9.7-22.2]. Tolerability was 100%. A total of 50% of patients experienced ≥20% tumor volume reduction on-treatment and absolute growth rate was lower during treatment (-1.2 ± 10.6 cc/year) than before treatment (8.0 ± 7.7 cc/year; P ≤ 0.05). log-linear models in the Stable group (n = 9) showed significant growth before treatment (53%/year; P = 0.013), and volume reduction (-34%/year; P = 0.037) after 5 months on treatment. After treatment, volume curves were significantly lower than before treatment (after/before treatment ratio 0.5; P < 0.01). Median time-to-best response was 11.2 (IQR: 1.7-33.4) months, and 16.8 (IQR: 2.6-33.5) months in patients on drug for ≥1 year. PFS at 9 months was 75%. CONCLUSIONS: Ivosidenib was well tolerated and induced a high volumetric response rate. Responders had significant reduction in tumor growth rates and volume reductions observed after a 5-month delay. Thus, ivosidenib appears useful to control tumor growth and delay more toxic therapies in IDH-mutant nonenhancing indolently growing gliomas. See related commentary by Lukas and Horbinski, p. 4709.

Discordances Between Creatinine- and Cystatin C-Based Estimated GFR and Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Routine Clinical Practice.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Cystatin C is recommended for measuring estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) when estimates based on creatinine (eGFRcr) are not thought to be accurate enough for clinical decision making. While global adoption is slow, routine cystatin C testing in Sweden has been available for over a decade, providing real-world evidence about the magnitude of differences between eGFRcys and eGFRcr and their association with clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 158,601 adults (48% women; mean age 62 years, eGFRcr 80, and eGFRcys 73mL/min/1.73/m2) undergoing testing for creatinine and cystatin C on the same day in connection with a health care encounter during 2010-2018 in Stockholm, Sweden. EXPOSURE: Percentage difference of eGFRcys minus eGFRcr (eGFRdiff). OUTCOME: Kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT), acute kidney injury (AKI), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), heart failure, and death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Discordances between eGFRcr and eGFRcys were common, with eGFRcys being lower than eGFRcr (negative eGFRdiff) in most cases (65%). Patients with larger negative eGFRdiff were older, more often female, with higher eGFRcr and albuminuria, and more comorbid conditions. Compared with patients with similar eGFRcys and eGFRcr, the lowest quartile (eGFRcys > 27% lower than eGFRcr) had the higher HR of all study outcomes: AKI, 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4-2.9); KFRT, 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.6); ASCVD, 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3-1.5); heart failure, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2); and all-cause death, 2.6 (95% CI, 2.5-2.7). Conversely, patients in the highest quartile (positive eGFRdiff) were at lower risk. LIMITATIONS: Observational study, lack of information on indications for cystatin C testing. CONCLUSIONS: Cystatin C testing in routine care shows that many patients have a lower eGFRcys than eGFRcr, and these patients have a higher risk of multiple adverse outcomes. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Clinicians require guidance when there are discrepancies between the estimated glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine (eGFRcr) and based on cystatin C (eGFRcys) in the same individual. Routine cystatin C testing in Sweden for over a decade permits exploration of how common and large these discrepancies are, and their associations with adverse clinical outcomes. In this observational study, we found that discordances between eGFRcys and eGFRcr are common, and 1 in 4 patients tested had an eGFRcys > 28% lower than their eGFRcr. We also show that an eGFRcys that is lower than the eGFRcr consistently identifies patients at higher risk of adverse outcomes, including cardiovascular events, kidney replacement therapy, acute kidney injury, and death.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Anemia Prevalence, Type, and Associated Risks in a Cohort of 5.0 Million Insured Patients in the United States by Level of Kidney Function.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Anemia is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD); although anemia is associated with adverse outcomes, the available treatments are not ideal. We characterized the burden, risk factors for, and risks associated with anemia by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and hemoglobin level. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional and prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Outpatient data from 5,004,957 individuals across 57 health care centers in the United States from 2016 to 2019, extracted from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse. EXPOSURE: Severity of anemia, presence of low iron test results, eGFR. OUTCOME: Incident kidney failure with replacement therapy, cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: The prevalences of anemia, low iron test results, vitamin B12 deficiency, and erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) use, stratified by sex and eGFR, were characterized. Polychotomous logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios of different hemoglobin levels across eGFR. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios for adverse outcomes across hemoglobin level. RESULTS: The mean age was 54 years, and 42% were male. Lower eGFR was very strongly associated with increased prevalence of anemia, even after adjustment. Although iron studies were checked infrequently in patients with anemia, low iron test results were highly prevalent in those tested: 60.4% and 81.3% of men and women, respectively. ESA use was uncommon, with a prevalence of use of<4%. Lower hemoglobin was independently associated with increased risk of incident kidney failure with replacement therapy, cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and death. LIMITATIONS: Reliance on ICD codes for medical diagnoses, death information obtained from claims data, observational study. CONCLUSIONS: Severe anemia was common and strongly associated with lower eGFR and multiple adverse outcomes. Low-iron test results were highly prevalent in those tested despite iron studies being checked infrequently. ESA use in nondialysis CKD patients was uncommon.

Racial Differences in Trends and Prognosis of Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy for Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Surveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities in guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have not been fully documented in a community setting. METHODS: In the ARIC Surveillance Study (2005-2014), we examined racial differences in GDMT at discharge, its temporal trends, and the prognostic impact among individuals with hospitalized HFrEF, using weighted regression models to account for sampling design. Optimal GDMT was defined as beta blockers (BB), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) and ACE inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB). Acceptable GDMT included either one of BB, MRA, ACEI/ARB or hydralazine plus nitrates (H-N). RESULTS: Of 16,455 (unweighted n = 3,669) HFrEF cases, 47% were Black. Only ~ 10% were discharged with optimal GDMT with higher proportion in Black than White individuals (11.1% vs. 8.6%, p < 0.001). BB use was > 80% in both racial groups while Black individuals were more likely to receive ACEI/ARB (62.0% vs. 54.6%) and MRA (18.0% vs. 13.8%) than Whites, with a similar pattern for H-N (21.8% vs. 10.1%). There was a trend of decreasing use of optimal GDMT in both groups, with significant decline of ACEI/ARB use in Whites (- 2.8% p < 0.01) but increasing H-N use in both groups (+ 6.5% and + 9.2%, p < 0.01). Only ACEI/ARB and BB were associated with lower 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal GDMT was prescribed in only ~ 10% of HFrEF patients at discharge but was more so in Black than White individuals. ACEI/ARB use declined in Whites while H-N use increased in both races. GDMT utilization, particularly ACEI/ARB, should be improved in Black and Whites individuals with HFrEF.

Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP.

AIMS: The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an 'Add-on' to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach. METHODS: In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets. RESULTS: In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline. CONCLUSION: Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.

Pharmacologic Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the U.S., Sweden, and Israel.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize and compare glucose-lowering medication use in type 2 diabetes in the U.S., Sweden, and Israel, including adoption of newer medications and prescribing patterns. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from the U.S., the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project from Sweden, and Maccabi Healthcare Services (Maccabi) from Israel. Specific pharmacotherapy for type 2 diabetes between 2007 and 2018 was examined. RESULTS: Use of glucose-lowering medications among patients with type 2 diabetes was substantially lower in NHANES and SCREAM than in Maccabi (66.0% in NHANES, 68.4% in SCREAM, and 88.1% in Maccabi in 2017-2018). Among patients who took at least one glucose-lowering medication in 2017-2018, metformin use was also lower in NHANES and SCREAM (74.1% in NHANES, 75.9% in SCREAM, and 92.6% in Maccabi) whereas sulfonylureas use was greater in NHANES (31.5% in NHANES, 16.0% in SCREAM, and 14.9% in Maccabi). Adoption of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) was slower in NHANES and SCREAM than in Maccabi. History of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, reduced kidney function, or albuminuria was not consistently associated with greater use of SGLT2i or glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) across the three countries. CONCLUSIONS: There were substantial differences in real-world use of glucose-lowering medications across the U.S., Sweden, and Israel, with more optimal pharmacologic management in Israel. Variation in access to care and medication cost across countries may have contributed to these differences. SGLT2i and GLP1RA use in patients at high risk was limited in all three countries during this time period.

Secular Trends in Risk Profiles Among Adults With Cardiovascular Disease in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Documenting trends in risk factors among individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) may inform policy and secondary prevention initiatives. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine 20-year trends in risk profiles among U.S. adults with CVD and any racial/ethnic disparities. METHODS: In this serial cross-sectional analysis of 6,335 adults with self-reported CVD participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 through 2018, we calculated age- and sex-adjusted proportions with ideal risk factor attainment. RESULTS: The proportions with ideal hemoglobin A1c (<7% if diabetes or <5.7% if not) and body mass index (<25 kg/m2) worsened from 58.7% (95% CI: 55.2%-62.1%) to 52.4% (95% CI: 48.2%-56.6%) and 23.9% (95% CI: 21.5%-26.4%) to 18.2% (95% CI: 15.6%-21.2%) from 1999-2002 to 2015-2018, respectively. After initial improvement, the proportion with blood pressure <130/80 mm Hg declined from 52.1% (95% CI: 48.9%-55.4%) in 2007-2010 to 48.6% (95% CI: 44.2%-52.7%) in 2015-2018. The proportion with non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <100 mg/dL increased from 7.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-9.5%) in 1999-2002 to 30.3% (95% CI: 25.7%-35.5%) in 2015-2018. The proportions with ideal smoking, physical activity, and diet profiles were unchanged over time, and in 2015-2018 were 77.8% (95% CI: 73.6%-81.4%), 22.4% (95% CI: 19.3%-25.9%), and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.7%-2.6%). Worsening trends were observed in Hispanic adults for cholesterol, and in Black adults for smoking (both P < 0.05 for nonlinear and linear trends). Persistently lower ideal risk factor attainment was observed for blood pressure in Black adults and for hemoglobin A1c levels in Asian adults compared with White adults (all P < 0.05 for differences). CONCLUSIONS: Trends in cardiovascular risk factor profiles in U.S. adults with CVD were suboptimal from 1999 through 2018, with persistent racial/ethnic disparities.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models of Adverse Kidney Outcomes in the Population With and Without Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To predict adverse kidney outcomes for use in optimizing medical management and clinical trial design. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this meta-analysis of individual participant data, 43 cohorts (N = 1,621,817) from research studies, electronic medical records, and clinical trials with global representation were separated into development and validation cohorts. Models were developed and validated within strata of diabetes mellitus (presence or absence) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; ≥60 or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) to predict a composite of ≥40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure (i.e., receipt of kidney replacement therapy) over 2-3 years. RESULTS: There were 17,399 and 24,591 events in development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models predicting ≥40% eGFR decline or kidney failure incorporated age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, history of heart failure, coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, smoking status, and BMI, and, in those with diabetes, hemoglobin A1c, insulin use, and oral diabetes medication use. The median C-statistic was 0.774 (interquartile range [IQR] = 0.753, 0.782) in the diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.769 (IQR = 0.758, 0.808) in the diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.740 (IQR = 0.717, 0.763) in the no diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; and 0.750 (IQR = 0.731, 0.785) in the no diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts. Incorporating the previous 2-year eGFR slope minimally improved model performance, and then only in the higher-eGFR cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Novel prediction equations for a decline of ≥40% in eGFR can be applied successfully for use in the general population in persons with and without diabetes with higher or lower eGFR.

Association of Rosuvastatin Use with Risk of Hematuria and Proteinuria.

BACKGROUND: Despite reports of hematuria and proteinuria with rosuvastatin use at the time of its approval by the US Food and Drug Association (FDA), little postmarketing surveillance exists to assess real-world risk. Current labeling suggests dose reduction (maximum daily dose of 10 mg) for patients with severe CKD. METHODS: Using deidentified electronic health record data, we analyzed 152,101 and 795,799 new users of rosuvastatin and atorvastatin, respectively, from 2011 to 2019. We estimated inverse probability of treatment-weighted hazard ratios (HRs) of hematuria, proteinuria, and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) associated with rosuvastatin. We reported the initial rosuvastatin dose across eGFR categories and evaluated for a dose effect on hematuria and proteinuria. RESULTS: Overall, we identified 2.9% of patients with hematuria and 1.0% with proteinuria during a median follow-up of 3.1 years. Compared with atorvastatin, rosuvastatin was associated with increased risk of hematuria (HR, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 1.11), proteinuria (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.25), and KFRT (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.30). A substantial share (44%) of patients with eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 was prescribed high-dose rosuvastatin (20 or 40 mg daily). Risk was higher with higher rosuvastatin dose. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with atorvastatin, rosuvastatin was associated with increased risk of hematuria, proteinuria, and KFRT. Among patients with eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2, 44% were prescribed a rosuvastatin daily dose exceeding the FDA's recommended 10 mg daily dose. Our findings suggest the need for greater care in prescribing and monitoring rosuvastatin, particularly in patients who receive high doses or who have severe CKD.

Association of Estimated GFR Calculated Using Race-Free Equations With Kidney Failure and Mortality by Black vs Non-Black Race.

Importance: At a given estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), individuals who are Black have higher rates of mortality and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) compared with those who are non-Black. Whether the recently adopted eGFR equations without race preserve racial differences in risk of mortality and KFRT at a given eGFR is unknown. Objective: To assess whether eGFR equations with and without race and cystatin C document racial differences in risk of KFRT and mortality in populations including Black and non-Black participants. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective individual-level data analysis of 62 011 participants from 5 general population and 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) US-based cohorts with serum creatinine, cystatin C, and follow-up for KFRT and mortality from 1988 to 2018. Exposures: Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation with serum creatinine (eGFRcr with and without race), cystatin C (eGFRcys without race), or both markers (eGFRcr-cys without race). Main Outcomes and Measures: The prevalence of decreased eGFR at baseline and hazard ratios of KFRT and mortality in Black vs non-Black participants were calculated, adjusted for age and sex. Analyses were performed within each cohort and with random-effect meta-analyses of the models. Results: Among 62 011 participants (20 773 Black and 41 238 non-Black; mean age, 63 years; 53% women), the prevalence ratio (95% CI; percent prevalences) of eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 comparing Black with non-Black participants was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.03; 11% vs 12%) for eGFRcr with race, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91-0.98; 17% vs 18%) for eGFRcys, and 1.2 (95% CI, 1.2-1.3; 13% vs 11%) for eGFRcr-cys but was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.7-1.8; 15% vs 9%) for eGFRcr without race. During a mean follow-up of 13 years, 8% and 4% of Black and non-Black participants experienced KFRT and 34% and 39% died, respectively. Decreased eGFR was associated with significantly greater risk of both outcomes for all equations. At an eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the hazard ratios for KFRT comparing Black with non-Black participants were 2.8 (95% CI, 1.6-4.9) for eGFRcr with race, 3.0 (95% CI, 1.5-5.8) for eGFRcys, and 2.8 (95% CI, 1.4-5.4) for eGFRcr-cys vs 1.3 (95% CI, 0.8-2.1) for eGFRcr without race. The 5-year absolute risk differences for KFRT comparing Black with non-Black participants were 1.4% (95% CI, 0.2%-2.6%) for eGFRcr with race, 1.1% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.9%) for eGFRcys, and 1.3% (95% CI, 0%-2.6%) for eGFRcr-cys vs 0.37% (95% CI, -0.32% to 1.05%) for eGFRcr without race. Similar patterns were observed for mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 8 US cohorts including Black and non-Black individuals, the eGFR equation without race that included creatinine and cystatin C, but not the eGFR equation without race that included creatinine without cystatin C, demonstrated racial differences in the risk of KFRT and mortality throughout the range of eGFR. The eGFRcr-cys equation may be preferable to the eGFRcr equation without race for assessing racial differences in the risk of KFRT and mortality associated with low eGFR.

Comparative mortality according to peripheral artery disease and coronary heart disease/stroke in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A recent trial reported that patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) without coronary heart disease or stroke (CHD/stroke) had worse prognosis than those with CHD/stroke without PAD. However, community-based data are lacking. The purpose of this study was to compare mortality according to the status of PAD and CHD/stroke in the general population. METHODS: In 6780 participants (aged ≥40 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2004, we compared mortality risk according to PAD (ankle-brachial index ≤0.9) and CHD/stroke (self-report) at baseline using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable Cox models accounting for sampling weights. RESULTS: The prevalence of having both PAD and CHD/stroke was 1.6%. The prevalence of PAD without CHD/stroke and CHD/stroke without PAD was 4.1% and 8.5%, respectively (85.8% without PAD or CHD/stroke). Over a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 21.2% died. Individuals with both PAD and CHD/stroke had the worst survival (25.5% at 12 years). Those with PAD without CHD/stroke had the second worst prognosis (47.7%), followed by those with CHD/stroke without PAD (53.2%) and those without CHD/stroke or PAD (87.2%). Adjusted hazard ratio of mortality was 2.70 (95% CI, 2.07-3.53) for PAD with CHD/stroke, 1.81 (1.54-2.12) in CHD/stroke without PAD, and 1.68 (1.35-2.08) in PAD without CHD/stroke vs. no CHD/stroke or PAD. CONCLUSIONS: In the US adults, PAD contributed to increased mortality in persons with and without CHD/stroke. The prognosis of PAD without CHD/stroke was no better than that of CHD/stroke without PAD. These results suggest the importance of recognizing the presence of PAD in the community.

Clinically Recognized Varicose Veins and Physical Function in Older Individuals: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Although a few studies reported an association between varicose veins and physical function, this potentially bidirectional association has not been systematically evaluated in the general population. METHOD: In 5 580 participants (aged 71-90 years) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, varicose veins were identified in outpatient and inpatient administrative data prior to (prevalent cases) and after (incident cases) visit 5 (2011-2013). Physical function was evaluated by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB, score ranging from 0 to 12). We evaluated (i) cross-sectional association between prevalent varicose veins and physical function, (ii) association of prevalent varicose veins with subsequent changes in physical function from visit 5 to visits 6 (2016-2017) and 7 (2018-2019), and (iii) association of physical function at visit 5 with incident varicose veins during a median follow-up of 3.6 years (105 incident varicose veins among 5 350 participants without prevalent cases at baseline). RESULTS: At baseline, varicose veins were recognized in 230 (4.1%) participants and cross-sectionally associated with reduced physical function. Longitudinally, prevalent varicose veins were not significantly associated with a decline in SPPB over time. In contrast, a low SPPB ≤6 was associated with a greater incidence of varicose veins compared to SPPB ≥10 (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13 [95% confidence interval = 1.19, 3.81]). CONCLUSION: In community-dwelling older adults, varicose veins and low physical function were associated cross-sectionally. Longitudinally, low physical function was a risk factor for incident varicose veins, but not vice versa. Our findings suggest an etiological contribution of low physical function to incident varicose veins.