ABSTRACT
We assessed the impact of the national lockdown on a rural and tribal population in Tamil Nadu, southern India. A mixed-methods approach with a pilot-tested, semi-structured questionnaire and focus group discussions were used. The impact of the lockdown on health, finances, and livelihood was studied using descriptive statistics. Multivariable logistic regression was carried out to identify factors associated with households that borrowed loans or sold assets during the lockdown, and unemployment during the lockdown. Of the 607 rural and tribal households surveyed, households from comparatively higher socioeconomic quintiles (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.84; 95% CI, 1.01-3.34), with no financial savings (aOR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.17-7.22), and with larger families (aOR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.22-2.53), took loans or sold assets during the lockdown. Previously employed individuals from rural households (aOR, 5.07; 95% CI, 3.30-7.78), lower socioeconomic households (aOR, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.74, 5.45), and households with no savings (aOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.30-2.44) became predominantly unemployed during the lockdown. Existing government schemes for the elderly, differently abled, and widows were shown to be accessible to 89% of the individuals requiring these schemes in our survey. During the focus group discussions, the limited reach of online classes for schoolchildren was noted and attributed to the lack of smartphones and poor Internet connectivity. Although the sudden, unannounced national lockdown was imposed to flatten the COVID-19 curve, aspects related to livelihood and financial security were affected for both the rural and tribal populations.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The DeWorm3 project is an ongoing cluster-randomised trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) through mass drug administration (MDA) using study sites in India, Malawi and Benin. In this article, we describe an approach which uses a combination of statistical and mathematical methods to forecast the outcome of the trial with respect to its stated goal of reducing the prevalence of infection to below 2%. METHODS: Our approach is first to define the local patterns of transmission within each study site, which is achieved by statistical inference of key epidemiological parameters using the baseline epidemiological measures of age-related prevalence and intensity of STH infection which have been collected by the DeWorm3 trials team. We use these inferred parameters to calibrate an individual-based stochastic simulation of the trial at the cluster and study site level, which is subsequently run to forecast the future prevalence of STH infections. The simulator takes into account both the uncertainties in parameter estimation and the variability inherent in epidemiological and demographic processes in the simulator. We interpret the forecast results from our simulation with reference to the stated goal of the DeWorm3 trial, to achieve a target of [Formula: see text] prevalence at a point 24 months post-cessation of MDA. RESULTS: Simulated output predicts that the two arms will be distinguishable from each other in all three country sites at the study end point. In India and Malawi, measured prevalence in the intervention arm is below the threshold with a high probability (90% and 95%, respectively), but in Benin the heterogeneity between clusters prevents the arm prevalence from being reduced below the threshold value. At the level of individual study arms within each site, heterogeneity among clusters leads to a very low probability of achieving complete elimination in an intervention arm, yielding a post-study scenario with widespread elimination but a few 'hot spot' areas of persisting STH transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that geographical heterogeneities in transmission intensity and worm aggregation have a large impact on the effect of MDA. It is important to accurately assess cluster-level, or even smaller scale, heterogeneities in factors which influence transmission and aggregation for a clearer perspective on projecting the outcomes of MDA control of STH and other neglected tropical diseases.
