Predictive risk modelling of high resource users under different prescription drug coverage policies in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada.

INTRODUCTION: Studying high resource users (HRUs) across jurisdictions is a challenge due to variation in data availability and health services coverage. In Canada, coverage for pharmaceuticals varies across provinces under a mix of public and private plans, which has implications for ascertaining HRUs. We examined sociodemographic and behavioural predictors of HRUs in the presence of different prescription drug coverages in the provinces of Manitoba and Ontario. METHODS: Linked Canadian Community Health Surveys were used to create two cohorts of respondents from Ontario (n = 58,617, cycles 2005-2008) and Manitoba (n = 10,504, cycles 2007-2010). HRUs (top 5%) were identified by calculating health care utilization 5 years following interview date and computing all costs in the linked administrative databases, with three approaches used to include drug costs: (1) costs paid for by the provincial payer under age-based coverage; (2) costs paid for by the provincial payer under income-based coverage; (3) total costs regardless of the payer (publicly insured, privately insured, and out-of-pocket). Logistic regression estimated the association between sociodemographic, health, and behavioral predictors on HRU risk. RESULTS: The strength of the association between age (≥ 80 vs. <30) and becoming an HRU were attenuated with the inclusion of broader drug data (age based: OR 37.29, CI: 30.08-46.24; income based: OR 27.34, CI: 18.53-40.33; all drug payees: OR 29.08, CI: 19.64-43.08). With broader drug coverage, the association between heavy smokers vs. non-smokers on odds of becoming an HRU strengthened (age based: OR 1.58, CI: 1.32-1.90; income based: OR 2.97, CI: 2.18-4.05; all drug payees: OR 3.12, CI: 2.29-4.25). Across the different drug coverage policies, there was persistence in higher odds of becoming an HRU in low income households vs. high income households and in those with a reported chronic condition vs. no chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The study illustrates that jurisdictional differences in how HRUs are ascertained based on drug coverage policies can influence the relative importance of some behavioural risk factors on HRU status, but most observed associations with health and sociodemographic risk factors were persistent, demonstrating that predictive risk modelling of HRUs can occur effectively across jurisdictions, even with some differences in public drug coverage policies.

Gaps in childhood immunizations and preventive care visits during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based cohort study of children in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada, 2016-2021.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the changes to the delivery of routine immunizations and well-child visits through the pandemic. METHODS: Using linked administrative health data in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada (1 September 2016 to 30 September 2021), infants <12 months old (N=291,917 Ontario, N=33,994 Manitoba) and children between 12 and 24 months old (N=293,523 Ontario, N=33,001 Manitoba) exposed and unexposed to the COVID-19 pandemic were compared on rates of receipt of recommended a) vaccinations and b) well-child visits after adjusting for sociodemographic measures. In Ontario, vaccinations were captured using physician billings database, and in Manitoba they were captured in a centralized vaccination registry. RESULTS: Exposed Ontario infants were slightly more likely to receive all vaccinations according to billing data (62.5% exposed vs. 61.6% unexposed; adjusted Relative Rate (aRR) 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.02]) whereas exposed Manitoba infants were less likely to receive all vaccines (73.5% exposed vs. 79.2% unexposed; aRR 0.93 [95% CI 0.92-0.94]). Among children exposed to the pandemic, total vaccination receipt was modestly decreased compared to unexposed (Ontario aRR 0.98 [95% CI 0.97-0.99]; Manitoba aRR 0.93 [95% CI 0.91-0.94]). Pandemic-exposed infants were less likely to complete all recommended well-child visits in Ontario (33.0% exposed, 48.8% unexposed; aRR 0.67 [95% CI 0.68-0.69]) and Manitoba (55.0% exposed, 70.7% unexposed; aRR 0.78 [95% CI 0.77-0.79]). A similar relationship was observed for rates of completed well-child visits among children in Ontario (aRR 0.78 [95% CI 0.77-0.79]) and Manitoba (aRR 0.79 [95% CI 0.77-0.80]). CONCLUSION: Through the first 18 months of the pandemic, routine vaccines were delivered to children < 2 years old at close to pre-pandemic rates. There was a high proportion of incomplete well-child visits, indicating that developmental surveillance catch-up is crucial.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons voulu estimer les changements dans l'administration des vaccins de routine et dans les consultations pédiatriques pendant la pandémie. MéTHODE: À l'aide des données administratives sur la santé couplées de l'Ontario et du Manitoba, au Canada (1er septembre 2016 au 30 septembre 2021), nous avons comparé les taux de réception : a) des vaccins recommandés et b) des consultations pédiatriques recommandées pour les nourrissons de < 12 mois (N = 291 917 en Ontario, N = 33 994 au Manitoba) et pour les enfants de 12 à 24 mois (N = 293 523 en Ontario, N = 33 001 au Manitoba) exposés et non exposés à la pandémie de COVID-19, après ajustement en fonction de mesures sociodémographiques. En Ontario, les vaccins ont été saisis à l'aide de la base de données des factures des médecins; au Manitoba, ils ont été saisis dans un registre de vaccination centralisé. RéSULTATS: Les nourrissons exposés en Ontario étaient légèrement plus susceptibles de recevoir tous les vaccins selon les données de facturation (62,5 % pour les nourrissons exposés c. 61,6 % pour les nourrissons non exposés; risque relatif ajusté [RRa] 1,01 [intervalle de confiance (IC) de 95 % 1,00-1,02]), tandis que les nourrissons exposés au Manitoba étaient moins susceptibles de recevoir tous les vaccins (73,5 % pour les nourrissons exposés c. 79,2 % pour les nourrissons non exposés; RRa 0,93 [IC de 95 % 0,92-0,94]). Chez les enfants exposés à la pandémie, le total des vaccins reçus était un peu plus faible que chez les enfants non exposés (RRa en Ontario 0,98 [IC de 95 % 0,97-0,99]; RRa au Manitoba 0,93 [IC de 95 % 0,91-0,94]). Les nourrissons exposés à la pandémie étaient moins susceptibles d'avoir eu toutes les consultations pédiatriques recommandées en Ontario (33 % pour les nourrissons exposés, 48,8 % pour les nourrissons non exposés; RRa 0,67 [IC de 95 % 0,68-0,69]) comme au Manitoba (55 % pour les nourrissons exposés, 70,7 % pour les nourrissons non exposés; RRa 0,78 [IC de 95 % 0,77-0,79]). Une relation semblable a été observée pour les taux de consultations pédiatriques complètes chez les enfants en Ontario (RRa 0,78 [IC de 95 % 0,77-0,79]) et au Manitoba (RRa 0,79 [(IC de 95 % 0,77-0,80]). CONCLUSION: Au cours des 18 premiers mois de la pandémie, les vaccins de routine ont été administrés aux enfants de < 2 ans à des taux proches de ceux d'avant la pandémie. Il y a eu une forte proportion de consultations pédiatriques incomplètes, ce qui indique qu'il est essentiel de rattraper la surveillance du développement.

Characterising methamphetamine use to inform health and social policies in Manitoba, Canada: a protocol for a retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data.

INTRODUCTION: Rising use of methamphetamine is causing significant public health concern in Canada. The biological and behavioural effects of methamphetamine range from wakefulness, vigour and euphoria to adverse physical health outcomes like myocardial infarction, haemorrhagic stroke, arrhythmia and seizure. It can also cause severe psychological complications such as psychosis. National survey data point to increasing rates of methamphetamine use, as well as increasing ease of access and serious methamphetamine-related harms. There is an urgent need for evidence to address knowledge gaps, provide direction to harm reduction and treatment efforts and inform health and social policies for people using methamphetamine. This protocol describes a study that aims to address this need for evidence. METHODS: The study will use linked, whole population, de-identified administrative data from the Manitoba Population Research Data Repository. The cohort will include individuals in the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba, who came into contact with the health system for reasons related to methamphetamine use from 2013 to 2021 and a comparison group matched on age, sex and geography. We will describe the cohort's sociodemographic characteristics, calculate incidence and prevalence of mental disorders associated with methamphetamine use and examine rates of health and social service use. We will evaluate the use of olanzapine pharmacotherapy in reducing adverse emergency department outcomes. In partnership with Indigenous co-investigators, outcomes will be stratified by First Nations and Métis identity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the University of Manitoba Health Research Ethics Board, and access datasets have been granted by all data providers. We also received approval from the First Nations Health and Social Secretariat of Manitoba's Health Information Research Governance Committee and the Manitoba Métis Federation. Dissemination will be guided by an 'Evidence 2 Action' group of public rightsholders, service providers and knowledge users who will ensure that the analyses address the critical issues.

A longitudinal cohort study of participation in the Boys & Girls Clubs of Winnipeg.

Introduction: Out-of-school or after-school programs are designed to support healthy behaviours, boost academic achievement and strengthen social skills. The Boys and Girls Clubs of Winnipeg (BGCW) in Manitoba, Canada, have been offering out-of-school programs to children and adolescents in low-income neighbourhoods for more than 40 years. Many BGCW participants face considerable risk of poor health, social and educational outcomes due to challenges they experience at home, in school and in their communities. Objective: We examined whether BGCW participation among children and adolescents aged 5-18 is associated with improved school outcomes and lower risk of justice system encounters and adverse health outcomes. Methods: We linked de-identified data on BGCW participation for children and adolescents born 1987-2010 to administrative data from the healthcare system, education system, and social services in the Population Research Data Repository, Manitoba Centre for Health Policy. The exposure group (n = 8,990) included children and adolescents who visited BGCW at least once from 2005-2016. The comparison group (n = 69,980) comprised children and adolescents matched on school year and neighbourhood who had never participated in BGCW. Results: Participation in BGCW was significantly associated with better scores in grade 3 numeracy and grade 7 student engagement assessments. The risk of justice system encounters among adolescents (aged 12-17) dropped as the frequency of BGCW participation increased, as did justice system encounters among young adults (aged 18-24) who had participated in BGCW as adolescents. The likelihood of teen pregnancy among female adolescents (aged 13-19) and sexually transmitted infections among adolescents (aged 13-19) also declined as the frequency of participation in BGCW increased. Conclusions: The findings suggest that participation in BGCW is associated with positive outcomes for children and adolescents in multiple domains and despite socioeconomic and family challenges faced by many in this population.

Pediatric primary care in Ontario and Manitoba after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There were large disruptions to health care services after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to describe the extent to which pandemic-related changes in service delivery and access affected use of primary care for children overall and by equity strata in the 9 months after pandemic onset in Manitoba and Ontario. METHODS: We performed a population-based study of children aged 17 years or less with provincial health insurance in Ontario or Manitoba before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Jan. 1, 2017-Nov. 28, 2020). We calculated the weekly rates of in-person and virtual primary care well-child and sick visits, overall and by age group, neighbourhood material deprivation level, rurality and immigrant status, and assessed changes in visit rates after COVID-19 restrictions were imposed compared to expected baseline rates calculated for the 3 years before pandemic onset. RESULTS: Among almost 3 million children in Ontario and more than 300 000 children in Manitoba, primary care visit rates declined to 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.82) of expected in Ontario and 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.84) of expected in Manitoba in the 9 months after the onset of the pandemic. Virtual visits accounted for 53% and 29% of visits in Ontario and Manitoba, respectively. The largest monthly decreases in visits occurred in April 2020. Although visit rates increased slowly after April 2020, they had not returned to prerestriction levels by November 2020 in either province. Children aged more than 1 year to 12 years experienced the greatest decrease in visits, especially for well-child care. Compared to prepandemic levels, visit rates were lowest among rural Manitobans, urban Ontarians and Ontarians in low-income neighbourhoods. INTERPRETATION: During the study period, the pandemic contributed to rapid, immediate and inequitable decreases in primary care use, with some recovery and a substantial shift to virtual care. Postpandemic planning must consider the need for catch-up visits, and the long-term impacts warrant further study.

An unconditional prenatal income supplement is associated with improved birth and early childhood outcomes among First Nations children in Manitoba, Canada: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Manitoba, Canada, low-income pregnant women are eligible for the Healthy Baby Prenatal Benefit, an unconditional income supplement of up to CAD $81/month, during their latter two trimesters. Our objective was to determine the impact of the Healthy Baby Prenatal Benefit on birth and early childhood outcomes among Manitoba First Nations women and their children. METHODS: We used administrative data to identify low-income First Nations women who gave birth 2003-2011 (n = 8209), adjusting for differences between women who received (n = 6103) and did not receive the Healthy Baby Prenatal Benefit (n = 2106) with using propensity score weighting. Using multi-variable regressions, we compared rates of low birth weight, preterm, and small- and large-for-gestational-age births, 5-min Apgar scores, breastfeeding initiation, birth hospitalization length of stay, hospital readmissions, complete vaccination at age one and two, and developmental vulnerability in Kindergarten. RESULTS: Women who received the benefit had lower risk of low birth weight (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 0.74; 95% CI 0.62-0.88) and preterm (aRR 0.77; 0.68-0.88) births, and were more likely to initiate breastfeeding (aRR 1.05; 1.01-1.09). Receipt of the Healthy Baby Prenatal Benefit was also associated with higher rates of child vaccination at age one (aRR 1.10; 1.06-1.14) and two (aRR 1.19; 1.13-1.25), and a lower risk that children would be vulnerable in the developmental domains of language and cognitive development (aRR 0.88; 0.79-0.98) and general knowledge/communication skills (aRR 0.87; 0.77-0.98) in Kindergarten. CONCLUSIONS: A modest unconditional income supplement of CAD $81/month during pregnancy was associated with improved birth outcomes, increased vaccination rates, and better developmental health outcomes for First Nations children from low-income families.

Differential effects of a school-based obesity prevention program: A cluster randomized trial.

School-based healthy living interventions are widely promoted as strategies for preventing obesity. The peer-led Healthy Buddies™ curriculum has been shown to improve obesity-related outcomes in school-aged children. We examined whether these improvements existed among subgroups of children stratified by sex, income level and urban/rural geography. In a cluster-randomized controlled trial, elementary schools in Manitoba, Canada, were randomly allocated to Healthy Buddies™ (10 schools, 340 students) or standard curriculum (10 schools, 347 students). Healthy Buddies™ participants had 21weekly lessons on healthy eating, physical activity and self-efficacy, delivered by children age 9-12 to children age 6-8. We assessed pre- and post-intervention body mass index (BMI) z-scores, waist circumference, healthy living knowledge, dietary intake and self-efficacy among the younger children. Compared to standard curriculum (n = 154), Healthy Buddies™ participants (n = 157) experienced a greater reduction in waist circumference (-1.7 cm; 95% confidence interval [CI][-2.8, -0.5 cm]) and improved dietary intake (4.6; 95% CI [0.9, 8.3]), healthy living knowledge (5.9; 95% CI [2.3, 9.5]) and self-efficacy (5.3; 95% CI [1.0, 9.5]) scores. In subgroup analyses, effects for waist circumference (-2.0 cm; 95% CI [-3.6, -0.5]), healthy living knowledge (9.1; 95% CI [4.4, 13.8]) and self-efficacy (8.3; 95% CI [3.3, 13.3]) were significant among boys. Dietary intake (10.5; 95% CI [5.5, 15.4]), healthy living knowledge (9.8; 95% CI [4.5, 15.0]) and self-efficacy (6.7; 95% CI [0.7, 12.7]) improved among urban-dwelling but not rural-dwelling children. Healthy Buddies™ was effective for boys and children living in urban settings. Enhanced curricula may be needed to improve program effectiveness for select subgroups of school-aged children.

External Validation of a Population-Based Prediction Model for High Healthcare Resource Use in Adults.

Predicting high healthcare resource users is important for informing prevention strategies and healthcare decision-making. We aimed to cross-provincially validate the High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT), a predictive model that uses population survey data to estimate 5 year risk of becoming a high healthcare resource user. The model, originally derived and validated in Ontario, Canada, was applied to an external validation cohort. HRUPoRT model predictors included chronic conditions, socio-demographics, and health behavioural risk factors. The cohort consisted of 10,504 adults (≥18 years old) from the Canadian Community Health Survey in Manitoba, Canada (cycles 2007/08 and 2009/10). A person-centred costing algorithm was applied to linked health administrative databases to determine respondents' healthcare utilization over 5 years. Model fit was assessed using the c-statistic for discrimination and calibration plots. In the external validation cohort, HRUPoRT demonstrated strong discrimination (c statistic = 0.83) and was well calibrated across the range of risk. HRUPoRT performed well in an external validation cohort, demonstrating transportability of the model in other jurisdictions. HRUPoRT's use of population survey data enables a health equity focus to assist with decision-making on prevention of high healthcare resource use.

Development and Validation of the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) to Predict Incidence of Adult Chronic Disease.

Importance: Predicting chronic disease incidence for the population provides a comprehensive picture to health policy makers of their jurisdictions' overall future chronic disease burden. However, no population-based risk algorithm exists for estimating the risk of first major chronic disease. Objective: To develop and validate the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT), a population risk algorithm that predicts the 10-year incidence of the first major chronic disease in the adult population. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, CDPoRT was developed and validated with 6 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey, linked to administrative data from January 2000 to December 2014. Development and internal validation (bootstrap and split sample) of CDPoRT occurred in Ontario, Canada, from June 2018 to April 2019 followed by external validation in Manitoba from May 2019 to July 2019. The study cohorts included 133 991 adults (≥20 years) representative of the Ontario and Manitoba populations who did not have a history of major chronic disease. Exposures: Predictors were routinely collected risk factors from the Canadian Community Health Survey, such as sociodemographic factors (eg, age), modifiable lifestyle risk factors (ie, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity), and other health-related factors (eg, body mass index). Main Outcomes and Measures: Six major chronic diseases were considered, as follows: congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, myocardial infarction, lung cancer, and stroke. Sex-specific CDPoRT algorithms were developed with a Weibull model. Model performance was evaluated with measures of overall predictive performance (eg, Brier score), discrimination (eg, Harrell C index), and calibration (eg, calibration curves). Results: The Ontario cohort (n = 118 747) was younger (mean [SD] age, 45.6 [16.1] vs 46.3 [16.4] years), had more immigrants (23 808 [20.0%] vs 1417 [10.7%]), and had a lower mean (SD) body mass index (26.9 [5.1] vs 27.7 [5.4]) than the Manitoba cohort (n = 13 244). During development, the full and parsimonious CDPoRT models had similar Brier scores (women, 0.087; men, 0.091), Harrell C index values (women, 0.779; men, 0.783), and calibration curves. A simple version consisting of cigarette smoking, age, and body mass index performed slightly worse than the other versions (eg, Brier score for women, 0.088; for men, 0.092). Internal validation showed consistent performance across models, and CDPoRT performed well during external validation. For example, the female parsimonious version had C index values for bootstrap, split sample, and external validation of 0.778, 0.776, and 0.752, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, CDPoRT provided accurate, population-based risk estimates for the first major chronic disease.

Association between participation in the Families First Home Visiting programme and First Nations families' public health outcomes in Manitoba, Canada: a retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the Families First Home Visiting (FFHV) programme, which provides home visiting services to families across Manitoba, is associated with improved public health outcomes among First Nations families facing multiple parenting challenges. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using population-based administrative data. SETTING: Manitoba, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: First Nations children born in Manitoba in 2003-2009 (n=4010) and their parents enrolled in FFHV compared with non-enrolled families with a similar risk profile. INTERVENTION: FFHV supports public health in Manitoba by providing home visiting services to First Nations and non-First Nations families with preschool children and connecting them with resources in their communities. OUTCOMES: Predicted probability (PP) and relative risk (RR) of childhood vaccination, parental involvement in community support programmes and children's development at school entry. RESULTS: FFHV participation was associated with higher rates of complete childhood vaccination at age 1 (PP: FFHV 0.715, no FFHV 0.661, RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.14) and age 2 (PP: FFHV 0.465, no FFHV 0.401, RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.25), and with parental involvement in community support groups (PP: FFHV 0.149, no FFHV 0.097, RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.86). However, there was no difference between FFHV participants and non-participants in rates of children being vulnerable in at least one developmental domain at age 5 (PP: FFHV 0.551, no FFHV 0.557, RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.11). CONCLUSIONS: FFHV supports First Nations families in Manitoba by promoting childhood vaccination and connecting families to parenting resources in their communities, thus playing an important role in fulfilling the mandate of public health practice.

Comparing the Effect of Throughput and Output Factors on Emergency Department Crowding: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: This study compares how throughput and output factors affect emergency department (ED) median waiting room time. METHODS: Administrative health care use records were used to identify all daytime (8 am to 8 pm) visits made to adult EDs in Winnipeg, Canada, between April 1, 2012, and March 31, 2013. First, we measured the waiting room time (from patient registration until transfer into the ED) of each index visit (incoming patient). We then linked each index visit to a group of existing patients surrounding it and counted the number of existing patients engaged in throughput processes (radiographs, computed tomography [CT] scans, advanced diagnostic tests) and one output process (waiting to be hospitalized). Regression analysis was used to measure how strongly each factor uniquely affected incoming patient median waiting room time, stratified by the acuity level. RESULTS: Analyses were performed on 143,172 index visits. On average, 153.4 radiographs and 48.5 CT scans were conducted daily, whereas 45.3 patients were admitted daily to hospital. Median waiting room time was shortest (8.0 minutes) for the highest-acuity index visits and was not influenced by these throughput or output factors. For all other index visits, median waiting room time was associated strongly with the number of existing patients receiving radiographs, and, to a lesser extent, with the number of existing patients receiving CT scans and waiting for hospital admission. CONCLUSION: Both throughput and output factors affect how long newly arriving ED patients remain in the waiting room. This suggests that a range of strategies may help to reduce ED wait time, each requiring stronger ED and hospital partnerships.

An Unconditional Prenatal Income Supplement Reduces Population Inequities In Birth Outcomes.

The Commission on Social Determinants of Health, sponsored by the World Health Organization, has identified measuring health inequities and evaluating interventions to reduce them as important priorities. We examined whether an unconditional prenatal income supplement for low-income women was associated with reduced population-level inequities in birth outcomes. We identified all mother-newborn pairs from the period 2003-10 in Manitoba, Canada, and divided them into the following three groups: low income exposed (received the supplement); low income unexposed (did not receive the supplement); and not low income unexposed (ineligible for the supplement). We measured inequities in low-birthweight births, preterm births, and breast-feeding initiation among these groups. The findings indicated that the socioeconomic gap in birth outcomes between low-income and other women was significantly smaller when the low-income women received the income supplement than when they did not. The prenatal income supplement may be an important driver in attaining population-level equity in birth outcomes; its success could inform strategies seeking to improve maternal and child health.

Families First Home Visiting programme reduces population-level child health and social inequities.

BACKGROUND: Home visiting has been shown to reduce child maltreatment and improve child health outcomes. In this observational study, we explored whether Families First, a home visiting programme in Manitoba, Canada, decreased population-level inequities in children being taken into care of child welfare and receiving complete childhood immunisations. METHODS: De-identified administrative health and social services data for children born 2003-2009 in Manitoba were linked to home visiting programme data. Programme eligibility was determined by screening for family risk factors. We compared probabilities of being taken into care and receiving immunisations among programme children (n=4575), eligible children who did not receive the programme (n=5186) and the general child population (n=87 897) and tested inequities using differences of risk differences (DRDs) and ratios of risk ratios (RRRs). RESULTS: Programme children were less likely to be taken into care (probability (95% CI) at age 1, programme 7.5 (7.0 to 8.0) vs non-programme 10.0 (10.0 to 10.1)) and more likely to receive complete immunisations (probability at age 1, programme 77.3 (76.5 to 78.0) vs non-programme 73.2 (72.1 to 74.3)). Inequities between programme children and the general population were reduced for both outcomes (being taken into care at age 1, DRD -2.5 (-3.7 to 1.2) and RRR 0.8 (0.7 to 0.9); complete immunisation at age 1, DRD 4.1 (2.2 to 6.0) and RRR 1.1 (1.0 to 1.1)); these inequities were also significantly reduced at age 2. CONCLUSION: Home visiting programmes should be recognised as effective strategies for improving child outcomes and reducing population-level health and social inequities.

Is the Families First Home Visiting Program Effective in Reducing Child Maltreatment and Improving Child Development?

While home visiting programs are among the most widespread interventions to support at-risk families, there is a paucity of research investigating these programs under real-world conditions. The effectiveness of Families First home visiting (FFHV) was examined for decreasing rates of being in care of child welfare, decreasing hospitalizations for maltreatment-related injuries, and improving child development at school entry. Data for 4,562 children from home visiting and 5,184 comparison children were linked to deidentified administrative health, social services, and education data. FFHV was associated with lower rates of being in care by child's first, second, and third birthday (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 0.75, 0.79, and 0.81, respectively) and lower rates of hospitalization for maltreatment-related injuries by third birthday (aRR = 0.59). No differences were found in child development at kindergarten. FFHV should be offered to at-risk families to decrease child maltreatment. Program enhancements are required to improve child development at school entry.

Unconditional Prenatal Income Supplement and Birth Outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Perinatal outcomes have improved in developed countries but remain poor for disadvantaged populations. We examined whether an unconditional income supplement to low-income pregnant women was associated with improved birth outcomes. METHODS: This study included all mother-newborn pairs (2003-2010) in Manitoba, Canada, where the mother received prenatal social assistance, the infant was born in the hospital, and the pair had a risk screen (N = 14 591). Low-income women who received the income supplement (Healthy Baby Prenatal Benefit [HBPB], n = 10 738) were compared with low-income women who did not receive HBPB (n = 3853) on the following factors: low birth weight, preterm, small and large for gestational age, Apgar score, breastfeeding initiation, neonatal readmission, and newborn hospital length of stay (LOS). Covariates from risk screens were used to develop propensity scores and to balance differences between groups in regression models; γ sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess sensitivity to unmeasured confounding. Population-attributable and preventable fractions were calculated. RESULTS: HBPB was associated with reductions in low birth weight (aRR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.63-0.81]), preterm births (aRR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.69-0.84]) and small for gestational age births (aRR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.81-0.99]) and increases in breastfeeding (aRR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.09]) and large for gestational age births (aRR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.05-1.23]). For vaginal births, HBPB was associated with shortened LOS (weighted mean, 2.86; P < .0001). Results for breastfeeding, low birth weight, preterm birth, and LOS were robust to unmeasured confounding. Reductions of 21% (95% CI, 13.6-28.3) for low birth weight births and 17.5% (95% CI, 11.2-23.8) for preterm births were associated with HBPB. CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of an unconditional prenatal income supplement was associated with positive outcomes. Placing conditions on income supplements may not be necessary to promote prenatal and perinatal health.

Teen clinics: missing the mark? Comparing pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections rates among enrolled and non-enrolled adolescents.

BACKGROUND: In Manitoba, Canada, school-based clinics providing sexual and reproductive health services for adolescents have been implemented to address high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and pregnancies. METHODS: The objectives of this population-based study were to compare pregnancy and STI rates between adolescents enrolled in schools with school-based clinics, those in schools without clinics, and those not enrolled in school. Data were from the PATHS Data Resource held in the Population Health Research Data Repository housed at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy. Adolescents aged 14 to 19 between 2003 and 2009 were included in the study. Annualized rates of pregnancies and positive STI tests were estimated and Poisson regression models were used to test for differences in rates amongst the three groups. RESULTS: As a proportion, pregnancies among non-enrolled female adolescents accounted for 55 % of all pregnancies in this age group during the study period. Pregnancy rates were 2-3 times as high among non-enrolled female adolescents. Compared to adolescents enrolled in schools without school-based clinics, age-adjusted STI rates were 3.5 times (p < .001) higher in non-enrolled males and 2.3 times (p < .001) higher in non-enrolled females. CONCLUSIONS: The highest rates for pregnancies and STIs were observed among non-enrolled adolescents. Although provision of reproductive and health services to in-school adolescents should remain a priority, program planning and design should consider optimal strategies to engage out of school youth.

Pressure Ulcers Among Newly Admitted Nursing Home Residents: Measuring the Impact of Transferring From Hospital.

OBJECTIVES: Pressure ulcers (PUs) are reported more often among newly admitted nursing home (NH) residents who transfer from hospital versus community. We examine for whom this increased risk is greatest, further defining hospitalized patients most in need of better PU preventive care. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SUBJECTS: All NH residents (N=5617) newly admitted between April 1, 2008 and March 31, 2012 in Winnipeg, MB, Canada. MEASURES: RAI-MDS 2.0 data were linked to administrative health care use files capturing each person's NH admission date, their presence of a PU at this time, whether they transferred into NH from hospital or community, and their PU susceptibility (eg, amount of help needed to maneuver in bed or to transfer from one surface to another, frequency of incontinence, presence of diabetes, amount of food consistently left uneaten). Log-binomial regression with interaction terms was used to analyze data. RESULTS: 67.6% of our cohort transferred into a NH directly from hospital; 9.2% of these residents were reported to have a stage 1+ PU on NH admission versus 2.6% of those who transferred from community. From regression models, transferring from hospital versus community was associated with increased PU risk equally across various subgroups of less and more susceptible residents. CONCLUSIONS: Transferring from hospital versus community places both more and less susceptible newly admitted NH residents at increased PU risk. Using evidence-based preventive care practices is thus needed for all subgroups of hospital patients before NH use, to help reduce PU risk.

Can opportunities be enhanced for vaccinating children in home visiting programs? A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Home visiting programs focused on improving early childhood environments are commonplace in North America. A goal of many of these programs is to improve the overall health of children, including promotion of age appropriate vaccination. In this study, population-based data are used to examine the effect of a home visiting program on vaccination rates in children. METHODS: Home visiting program data from Manitoba, Canada were linked to several databases, including a provincial vaccination registry to examine vaccination rates in a cohort of children born between 2003 and 2009. Propensity score weights were used to balance potential confounders between a group of children enrolled in the program (n = 4,562) and those who were eligible but not enrolled (n = 5,184). Complete and partial vaccination rates for one and two year old children were compared between groups, including stratification into area-level income quintiles. RESULTS: Complete vaccination rates from birth to age 1 and 2 were higher for those enrolled in the Families First program [Average Treatment Effect Risk Ratio (ATE RR) 1.06 (95 % CI 1.03-1.08) and 1.10 (95 % CI 1.05-1.15) respectively]. No significant differences were found between groups having at least one vaccination at age 1 or 2 [ATE RR 1.01 (95 % CI 1.00-1.02) and 1.00 (95 % CI 1.00-1.01) respectively). The interaction between program and income quintiles was not statistically significant suggesting that the program effect did not differ by income quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Home visiting programs have the potential to increase vaccination rates for children enrolled, despite limited program content directed towards this end. Evidence-based program enhancements have the potential to increase these rates further, however more research is needed to inform policy makers of optimal approaches in this regard, especially with respect to cost-effectiveness.

Have we left some behind? Trends in socio-economic inequalities in breastfeeding initiation: a population-based epidemiological surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: Breastfeeding is associated with improved health. Surveillance data show that breastfeeding initiation rates have increased; however, limited work has examined trends in socio-economic inequalities in initiation. The study's research question was whether socio-economic inequalities in breastfeeding initiation have changed over the past 20 years. METHODS: This population-based study is a project within PATHS Equity for Children. Analyses used hospital discharge data for Manitoba mother-infant dyads with live births, 1988-2011 (n=316,027). Income quintiles were created, each with ~20% of dyads. Three-year, overall and by-quintile breastfeeding initiation rates were estimated for Manitoba and two hospitals. Age-adjusted rates were estimated for Manitoba. Rates were modelled using generalized linear models. Three measures, rate ratios (RRs), rate differences (RDs) and concentration indices, assessed inequality at each time point. We also compared concentration indices with Gini coefficients to assess breastfeeding inequality vis-à-vis income inequality. Trend analyses tested for changes over time. RESULTS: Manitoba and Hospital A initiation rates increased; Hospital B rates did not change. Significant inequalities existed in nearly every period, across all three measures: RRs, RDs and concentration indices. RRs and concentration indices suggested little to no change in inequality from 1988 to 2011. RDs for Manitoba (comparing initiation in the highest to lowest income quintiles) did not change significantly over time. RDs decreased for Hospital A, suggesting decreasing socio-economic inequalities in breastfeeding; RDs increased for Hospital B. Income inequality increased significantly in Manitoba during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Overall breastfeeding initiation rates can improve while inequality persists or worsens.

Data resource profile: Pathways to Health and Social Equity for Children (PATHS Equity for Children).

The PATHS Data Resource is a unique database comprising data that follow individuals from the prenatal period to adulthood. The PATHS Resource was developed for conducting longitudinal epidemiological research into child health and health equity. It contains individual-level data on health, socioeconomic status, social services and education. Individuals' data are linkable across these domains, allowing researchers to follow children through childhood and across a variety of sectors. PATHS includes nearly all individuals that were born between 1984 and 2012 and registered with Manitoba's universal health insurance programme at some point during childhood. All PATHS data are anonymized. Key concepts, definitions and algorithms necessary to work with the PATHS Resource are freely accessible online and an interactive forum is available to new researchers working with these data. The PATHS Resource is one of the richest and most complete databases assembled for conducting longitudinal epidemiological research, incorporating many variables that address the social determinants of health and health equity. Interested researchers are encouraged to contact [mchp_access@cpe.umanitoba.ca] to obtain access to PATHS to use in their own programmes of research.