Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Direct oral anticoagulant-associated bleeding complications in patients with gastrointestinal cancer and venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have become widely used for cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, DOAC-associated bleeding complications remain challenging, especially in patients with gastrointestinal (GI) cancer. This study aimed to compare the bleeding outcomes between patients with upper or lower GI cancers and those without GI cancer. METHODS: Using the COMMAND VTE Registry-2 database, which is a multicenter registry enrolling 5197 consecutive acute symptomatic VTE patients among 31 centers in Japan between January 2015 and August 2020, we identified 1149 active cancer patients with DOACs (upper GI cancer: N = 88; lower GI cancer: N = 114; non-GI cancer: N = 947). The primary outcome was major bleeding during anticoagulation therapy, which was evaluated in the competing risk regression model. RESULTS: The upper GI cancer group had a lower mean body weight, and most often had anemia. The cumulative 5-year incidence of major bleeding was higher in the upper GI cancer group (upper GI cancer: 22.4 %, lower GI cancer: 15.4 %, and non-GI cancer: 11.6 %, P = 0.015). The most frequent major bleeding site in the upper GI cancer group was the upper GI (53 %), followed by the lower GI (24 %). After adjusting for the confounders, the excess risk in upper GI cancer relative to non-GI cancer remained significant for major bleeding (adjusted subhazard ratio, 2.25; 95 %CI, 1.31-3.87, P = 0.003), but that in lower GI cancer was insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI cancer, but not lower GI cancer, as compared to non-GI cancer was associated with a higher risk for major bleeding during anticoagulation therapy with DOACs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/index.htm Unique identifier: UMIN000044816.

Relationship between 2nd-generation angiotensin receptor blockers and the risk of hypotension in COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.

It has not yet been established whether angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), statins, and multiple drugs affect the severity of COVID-19. Therefore, we herein performed an observational study on the effects of 1st- and 2nd-generation ARB, statins, and multiple drugs, on COVID-19 in patients admitted to 15 Japanese medical facilities. The results obtained showed that ARB, statins, and multiple drugs were not associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio: 1.040, 95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.571; 0.696, 0.439-1.103; 1.056, 0.941-1.185, respectively), each component of the primary outcome (in-hospital death, ventilator support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, and admission to the intensive care unit), or the secondary outcomes (oxygen administration, disturbed consciousness, and hypotension, defined as systolic blood pressure ≤90 mmHg). ARB were divided into 1st- and 2nd-generations based on their approval for use (before 2000 and after 2001), with the former consisting of losartan, candesartan, and valsartan, and the latter of telmisartan, olmesartan, irbesartan, and azilsartan. The difference of ARB generation was not associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio with 2nd-generation ARB relative to 1st-generation ARB: 1.257, 95% confidence interval: 0.613-2.574). The odd ratio for a hypotension as one of the secondary outcomes with 2nd-generation ARB was 1.754 (95% confidence interval: 1.745-1.763) relative to 1st-generation ARB. These results suggest that patients taking 2nd-generation ARB may be at a higher risk of hypotension than those taking 1st-generation ARB and also that careful observations are needed. Further studies are continuously needed to support decisions to adjust medications for co-morbidities.

Effective growth hormone replacement with once-weekly somapacitan in Japanese children with growth hormone deficiency: Results from REAL4, a phase 3 clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: Somapacitan is a long-acting growth hormone (GH) derivative developed for the treatment of GH deficiency (GHD). This study evaluates the efficacy and tolerability of somapacitan in Japanese children with GHD after 104 weeks of treatment and after switch from daily GH. DESIGN: Subanalysis on Japanese patients from a randomised, open-labelled, controlled parallel-group phase 3 trial (REAL4, NCT03811535). PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Thirty treatment-naïve patients were randomised 2:1 to somapacitan (0.16 mg/kg/week) or daily GH (0.034 mg/kg/day) up to Week 52, after which all patients received somapacitan. Height velocity (HV; cm/year) at Weeks 52 and 104 were the primary measurements. Additional assessments included HV SD score (SDS), height SDS, bone age, insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) SDS, and observer-reported outcomes. RESULTS: At Week 52, observed mean HV was similar between treatment groups (10.3 vs. 9.8 cm/year for somapacitan and daily GH, respectively). Similar HVs between groups were also observed at Week 104: 7.4 cm/year after continuous somapacitan treatment (soma/soma) and 7.9 cm/year after 1-year somapacitan treatment following switch from daily GH (switch). Other height-related endpoints supported continuous growth. IGF-I SDS increased in both groups with mean IGF-I SDS within -2 and +2 during the study. Somapacitan was well tolerated, one mild injection site reaction was reported, with no reports of injection site pain. Patient preference questionnaires showed that most patients and their caregivers (90.9%) who switched treatment at Week 52 preferred once-weekly somapacitan over daily GH treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Somapacitan showed sustained efficacy in Japanese children with GHD over 104 weeks and for 52 weeks after switching from daily GH. Somapacitan was well tolerated and preferred over daily GH.

The effect of an initial catheter ablation with an adjunctive ethanol infusion into the vein of Marshall on persistent atrial fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: Some previous studies have reported that a first-step ethanol infusion into the vein of Marshall (EIVOM) with touch-up radiofrequency (RF) ablation can facilitate mitral isthmus (MI) block and improves the ablation outcomes in persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF) patients. However, the effect of an initial RF ablation with an adjunctive EIVOM has not been fully investigated. METHODS: This study enrolled 233 PeAF patients undergoing pulmonary vein isolation and linear ablation including an MI, roof line, and cavotricuspid isthmus ablation. An EIVOM was performed when endocardial ablation with or without coronary sinus ablation failed to create MI block. RESULTS: Bidirectional MI block was achieved in 224 patients (96.1%). Among them, MI block was obtained by only RF ablation in 174/224 patients (77.7%) (RF group) and an adjunctive EIVOM was needed in 50/224 (22.3%) (EIVOM group). During the follow-up, 113 (64.9%) RF group patients were free from AF/atrial tachycardia compared to 41 (82.0%) EIVOM group patients (log-rank p = .045). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, an adjunctive EIVOM was associated with a lower recurrence rate (hazard ratio = 0.39, 95% confidence interval = 0.17-0.78, p = .006). CONCLUSION: An initial RF ablation with an adjunctive EIVOM strategy improved MI ablation's acute success rate and was associated with better clinical outcomes.

Investigating the seasonal variation of heart failure hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality risks in Japan using a nationwide database.

BACKGROUND: Studies have reported seasonal variations in heart failure (HF) hospitalizations and mortality that are observed to peak in the winter, although many of these studies are from Europe or the USA. However, some studies on non-US patients have reported contrasting results. We aimed to determine whether seasonal variation exists in hospitalizations due to HF, investigate the risk of death during hospitalization, and examine possible contributors to such variability in Japan. METHODS: This study was an exploratory analysis of our previous report, which included 269,636 hospitalizations due to HF between 2008 and 2018. The monthly hospitalization rate for HF was evaluated using a linear regression model with April as the reference month. The risk factors for in-hospital and monthly mortality were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The hospitalizations due to HF were significantly higher in the winter than in the summer. The peak admission rate occurred in January, and the lowest rate occurred in July. Based on April, changes in the number of hospitalizations per month were estimated using linear multiple regression analysis (adjusted R2 = 0.911). The risk of death during hospitalization was lowest in April and gradually increased from August to October (hazard ratio, 1.18-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant seasonal variation in HF hospitalizations in Japan. Peak admission rates occurred in January. However, the risk of death during hospitalization was higher in August, September, and October than that in January.

Effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea among hospitalised patients with advanced heart failure: the Morphine-HF study.

OBJECTIVES: Morphine is effective in alleviating dyspnoea in patients with cancer. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, prospective, observational study of hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered for refractory dyspnoea. Morphine effectiveness was evaluated by dyspnoea intensity changes, assessed regularly by both a quantitative subjective scale (Visual Analogue Scale (VAS; graded from 0 to 100 mm)) and an objective scale (Support Team Assessment Schedule-Japanese (STAS-J; graded from 0 to 4 points)). Safety was assessed by vital sign changes and new-onset severe adverse events, including nausea, vomiting, constipation and delirium based on the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. RESULTS: From 15 Japanese institutions between September 2020 and August 2022, we included 28 hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered (mean age: 83.8±8.7 years, male: 15 (54%), New York Heart Association class IV: 26 (93%) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 38%±19%). Both VAS and STAS-J significantly improved from baseline to day 1 (VAS: 67±26 to 50±31 mm; p=0.02 and STAS-J: 3.3±0.8 to 2.6±1.1 points; p=0.006, respectively), and thereafter the improvements sustained through to day 7. After morphine administration, vital signs including blood pressure, pulse rate and oxygen saturation did not change, and no new-onset severe adverse events occurred through to day 7. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested acceptable effectiveness and safety for morphine administration in treating refractory dyspnoea in hospitalised patients with advanced HF.

The characteristics and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure who used tolvaptan: from KCHF registry.

AIMS: The use of tolvaptan is increasing in clinical practice in Japan. However, the characteristics of patients who used tolvaptan and the timing of its use in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not fully elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among consecutive 4056 patients in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 3802 patients after excluding patients on dialysis, prior or unknown tolvaptan use at admission, and unknown timing of tolvaptan use, and we divided them into two groups: tolvaptan use (N = 773) and no tolvaptan use (N = 3029). The prevalence of tolvaptan use varied widely from 48.7% to 0% across the participating centres. Factors independently associated with tolvaptan use were diabetes, poor medical adherence, oedema, pleural effusion, hyponatraemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, dobutamine infusion within 24 h, and additional inotropes infusion beyond 24 h after admission. The mortality rate at 90 days after admission was significantly higher in the tolvaptan use group than in the no tolvaptan use group (14.3% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.049). However, after adjustment, the excess mortality risk of tolvaptan use relative to no tolvaptan use was no longer significant (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.77-3.02, P = 0.22). Patients with tolvaptan use had a longer hospital stay [median (interquartile range): 22 (15-34) days vs. 15 (11-21) days, P < 0.0001] and a higher prevalence of worsening renal failure (47.0% vs. 31.8%, P < 0.0001) and worsening heart failure (24.8% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.0001) than those without. CONCLUSIONS: AHF patients with tolvaptan use had more congestive status with poorer in-hospital outcomes and higher short-term mortality than those without tolvaptan use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Edoxaban for 12 Months Versus 3 Months in Patients With Cancer With Isolated Distal Deep Vein Thrombosis (ONCO DVT Study): An Open-Label, Multicenter, Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of anticoagulation therapy for isolated distal deep vein thrombosis in patients with cancer is clinically relevant, but the evidence is lacking. The prolonged anticoagulation therapy could have a potential benefit for prevention of thrombotic events; however, it could also increase the risk of bleeding. METHODS: In a multicenter, open-label, adjudicator-blinded, randomized clinical trial at 60 institutions in Japan, we randomly assigned patients with cancer with isolated distal deep vein thrombosis, in a 1-to-1 ratio, to receive either a 12-month or 3-month edoxaban treatment. The primary end point was a composite of a symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) or VTE-related death at 12 months. The major secondary end point was major bleeding at 12 months, according to the criteria of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis. The primary hypothesis was that a 12-month edoxaban treatment was superior to a 3-month edoxaban treatment with respect to the primary end point. RESULTS: From April 2019 through June 2022, 604 patients were randomized, and after excluding 3 patients who withdrew consent, 601 patients were included in the intention-to-treat population: 296 patients in the 12-month edoxaban group and 305 patients in the 3-month edoxaban group. The mean age was 70.8 years, 28% of the patients were men, and 20% of the patients had symptoms of deep vein thrombosis at baseline. The primary end point of a symptomatic recurrent VTE event or VTE-related death occurred in 3 of the 296 patients (1.0%) in the 12-month edoxaban group and in 22 of the 305 patients (7.2%) in the 3-month edoxaban group (odds ratio, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.03-0.44). The major secondary end point of major bleeding occurred in 28 of the 296 patients (9.5%) in the 12-month edoxaban group and in 22 of the 305 patients (7.2%) in the 3-month edoxaban group (odds ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.75-2.41). The prespecified subgroups did not affect the estimates on the primary end point. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with cancer with isolated distal deep vein thrombosis, 12 months was superior to 3 months for an edoxaban treatment with respect to the composite outcome of a symptomatic recurrent VTE or VTE-related death. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03895502.

Trends in Mechanical Circulatory Support Use and Outcomes of Patients With Cardiogenic Shock in Japan, 2010 to 2020 (from a Nationwide Inpatient Database Study).

Little is known about the impact of the downgrade of guideline recommendations for intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) use and the approval of the Impella in Japan, where IABPs have been predominantly used. This study aimed to describe the annual trends in the mechanical circulatory support (MCS) use and outcomes in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) requiring MCS. Using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database from July 2010 to March 2021, we identified inpatients with CS requiring MCS. The patients were stratified into 3 groups: (1) IABP alone, (2) Impella alone, and (3) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), regardless of IABP or Impella use. The patient characteristics and outcomes were reported by the fiscal year. Of the 160,559 eligible patients, 117,599 (73.2%) used IABP alone, 1,465 (0.9%) Impella alone, and 41,495 (25.8%) ECMO. The prevalence of the use of an IABP alone significantly decreased from 80.5% in 2010 to 65.3% in 2020 (p for trend <0.001), whereas the prevalence of the use of an Impella alone significantly increased from 0.0% to 5.0% and ECMO from 19.5% to 29.6% (p for trend <0.001 for both). In-hospital mortality significantly increased from 29.3% in 2010 to 32.6% in 2020 in the overall patients with CS requiring MCS but significantly decreased in those requiring ECMO from 73.7% to 64.1% (p for trend <0.001 for both). In conclusion, there were significant annual changes in the patterns of MCS use and clinical outcomes in patients with CS requiring MCS.

The Impact of Mitral Regurgitation on Long-Term Outcomes in Acute Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

It is important to clarify the precise impact of mitral regurgitation (MR) on long-term outcomes in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). In the Coronary Revascularization Demonstrating Outcome study in Kyoto Acute Myocardial Infarction (CREDO-Kyoto AMI) Registry Wave-2, the study population consisted of 5,266 patients with AMI who underwent PCI. The clinical outcomes of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) were compared according to the severity of MR. Mild and moderate/severe MR were identified in 2,112 (40%) and 531 patients (10%), respectively. Patients with greater severity of MR were more likely to be old, had more co-morbidities, and more often presented with large myocardial infarction with HF. During median follow-up duration of 5.6 (interquartile range: 4.2 to 6.6) years, as the MR severity increased from no, mild, to moderate/severe MR, the cumulative 5-year incidences of all-cause death, cardiovascular death and hospitalization for HF incrementally increased ([15.3%, 19.6%, 33.3%], [8.9%, 11.7%, 21.0%] and [5.9%, 12.4%, 23.9%], respectively, P for all<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, however, mild and moderate/severe MR were not independently associated with the higher risks for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]:1.05 [0.92 to 1.19], p = 0.51, and 1.10 [0.92 to 1.32], p = 0.28) and cardiovascular death (1.01 [0.85 to 1.21], p = 0.89, and 0.93 [0.73 to 1.18], p = 0.54) as compared with no MR. Both mild and moderate/severe MR were independently associated with the higher risks for hospitalization for HF (1.73 [1.42 to 2.11], p <0.001, and 2.23 [1.73 to 2.87], p <0.001). In a large population of patients with AMI who underwent PCI, MR was not independently associated with higher long-term mortality risk but was independently associated with higher risk for hospitalization for HF.

Post-contrast Acute Kidney Injury After Emergent and Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (from the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG Registry Cohort 3).

Post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) is a common complication after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, it is unclear whether or not the effects of PC-AKI on long-term clinical outcomes were different between emergent and elective procedures. Among patients enrolled in the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG (Coronary Revascularization Demonstrating Outcome Study in Kyoto Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting) registry cohort 3, we identified 10,822 patients treated using PCI (emergent PCI stratum: n = 5,022 [46%] and elective PCI stratum: n = 5,860 [54%]). PC-AKI was defined as ≥0.3 mg/100 ml absolute or 1.5-fold relative increase of serum creatinine within 72 hours after PCI. The incidence of PC-AKI was significantly higher after emergent PCI than after elective PCI (10.5% vs 3.7%, p <0.001). In the multivariable logistic regression model, emergent PCI was the strongest independent risk factor for PC-AKI in the entire study population. The excess adjusted risk of patients with PC-AKI relative to those without remained significant for all-cause death in both the emergent and elective PCI strata (hazard ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.59 to 2.21, p <0.001 and hazard ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.68, p = 0.03, respectively). There was a significant interaction between the PCI setting (emergent and elective) and the effect of PC-AKI on all-cause death, with a greater magnitude of effect in the emergent PCI stratum than in the elective PCI stratum (p for interaction = 0.01). In conclusion, the incidence of PC-AKI was 2.8 times higher after emergent PCI than after elective PCI. The excess mortality risk of PC-AKI relative to no PC-AKI was greater after emergent PCI than after elective PCI.

Trends in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes of Patients With Pulmonary Embolism in Japan, 2010 to 2020: A Nationwide Inpatient Database Study.

Background The impact of major changes in the treatment practice of pulmonary embolism (PE), such as limited indications for systemic thrombolysis and the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants, is not well documented. This study aimed to describe annual trends in the treatment patterns and outcomes in patients with PE. Methods and Results Using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination inpatient database from April 2010 to March 2021, we identified hospitalized patients with PE. Patients with high-risk PE were defined as those admitted for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest or who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, vasopressors, or invasive mechanical ventilation on the day of admission. The remaining patients were defined as patients with non-high-risk PE. The patient characteristics and outcomes were reported with fiscal year trend analyses. Of 88 966 eligible patients, 8116 (9.1%) had high-risk PE, and the remaining 80 850 (90.9%) had non-high-risk PE. Between 2010 and 2020, in patients with high-risk PE, the annual proportion of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use significantly increased from 11.0% to 21.3%, whereas that of thrombolysis use significantly decreased from 22.5% to 15.5% (P for trend <0.001 for both). In-hospital mortality significantly decreased from 51.0% to 43.7% (P for trend=0.04). In patients with non-high-risk PE, the annual proportion of direct oral anticoagulant use increased from 0.0% to 38.3%, whereas that of thrombolysis use significantly decreased from 13.7% to 3.4% (P for trend <0.001 for both). In-hospital mortality significantly decreased from 7.9% to 5.4% (P for trend <0.001). Conclusions Substantial changes in the PE practice and outcomes occurred in patients with high-risk and non-high-risk PE.

Weight loss during follow-up in patients with acute heart failure: From the KCHF registry.

BACKGROUNDS: The prognostic implication of weight loss after discharge from acute heart failure (AHF) remains unclear. We sought to investigate the association of weight loss between discharge and 6-month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: We analyzed 686 patients with AHF in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study derived from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, and divided them into 2 groups based on the weight loss at 6-month index visit. We defined the weight loss as ≥ 5% decrease in body weight from discharge to 6-month index visit. RESULTS: There were 90 patients (13.1%) with a weight loss at 6-month visit. Patients in the weight loss group compared with those in the no weight loss group had higher body weight at discharge and lower body weight at 6-mont visit. Patients in the weight loss group had a lower systolic blood pressure, higher brain-type natriuretic peptide, lower serum albumin, lower hemoglobin, higher prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction at 6-month visit, and a lower prescription rate of inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system than those in the no weight loss group. The cumulative 6-month incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the weight loss group than in the no weight loss group (14.2% and 4.3%, log-rank P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of the weight loss group relative to the no weight loss group remained significant for all-cause death (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.01-5.65, P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Body weight loss of ≥5% at 6-month visit after discharge was associated with subsequent all-cause death in patients with AHF.

Association between changes in loop diuretic dose and outcomes in acute heart failure.

AIMS: Little is known about the association between the starting of or dose changes in loop diuretics during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes. We investigated the clinical impact of starting loop diuretics and changing the loop diuretics dose during hospitalization on post-discharge outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 3665 consecutive patients hospitalized for HF and discharged alive were included in this study. We analysed 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive and 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. Of the 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission, 1366 (71.7%) patients started loop diuretics during the index AHF hospitalization. Starting loop diuretics was not associated with lower post-discharge mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.25]. Of the 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission, loop diuretic dose was decreased in 23.8%, unchanged in 44.6%, and increased in 31.6% of the patients. Changes in the dose at discharge compared with no change in dose were not associated with lower risk of post-discharge mortality (decrease relative to no change: adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.28; increase relative to no change: adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78-1.27). Compared with no loop diuretics at discharge, a loop diuretics dose of ≥80 mg at discharge was associated with higher post-discharge mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, we found no association between the starting of loop diuretics and post-discharge outcomes and between dose changes and post-discharge outcomes.

Tricuspid regurgitation in elderly patients with acute heart failure: insights from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Several studies demonstrated that tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, data on patients with TR who experienced acute heart failure (AHF) remains scarce. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between TR and clinical outcomes in patients admitted with AHF, using a large-scale Japanese AHF registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: The current study population consisted of 3735 hospitalized patients due to AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) registry. TR grades were assessed according to the routine clinical practice at each participating centre. We compared the baseline characteristics and outcomes according to the severity of TR. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcome was hospitalization for heart failure (HF). The median age of the entire study population was 80 (interquartile range: 72-86) years. One thousand two hundred five patients (32.3%) had no TR, while mild, moderate, and severe TR was found in 1537 patients (41.2%), 776 patients (20.8%), and 217 patients (5.8%), respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, significant mitral regurgitation, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were strongly associated with the development of moderate/severe of TR, while left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was inversely associated with it. Among 993 patients with moderate/severe TR, the number of patients who underwent surgical intervention for TR within 1 year was only 13 (1.3%). The median follow-up duration was 475 (interquartile range: 365-653) days with 94.0% follow-up at 1 year. As the TR severity increased, the cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death and HF admission proportionally increased ([14.8%, 20.3%, 23.4%, 27.0%] and [18.9%, 23.0%, 28.5%, 28.4%] in no, mild, moderate, and severe TR, respectively). Compared with no TR, the adjusted risks of patients with mild, moderate, and severe TR were significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.00-1.43], P = 0.0498, 1.32 [1.07-1.62], P = 0.009, and 1.35 [1.00-1.83], P = 0.049, respectively), while those were not significant for hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.16 [0.97-1.38], P = 0.10, 1.19 [0.96-1.46], P = 0.11, and 1.20 [0.87-1.65], P = 0.27, respectively). The higher adjusted HRs of all the TR grades relative to no TR were significant for all-cause death in patients aged <80 years, but not in patients aged ≥80 years with significant interaction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large Japanese AHF population, the grades of TR could successfully stratify the risk of all-cause death. However, the association of TR with mortality was only modest and attenuated in patients aged 80 or more. Further research is warranted to evaluate how to follow up and manage TR in this elderly population.

Effectiveness of systemic thrombolysis on clinical outcomes in high-risk pulmonary embolism patients with venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a nationwide inpatient database study.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend systemic thrombolysis as the first-line reperfusion treatment for patients with high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) who present with cardiogenic shock but do not require venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). However, little is known about the optimal reperfusion treatment in high-risk PE patients requiring VA-ECMO. We aimed to evaluate whether systemic thrombolysis improved high-risk PE patients' outcomes who received VA-ECMO. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination inpatient database from July 2010 to March 2021. We identified patients who were diagnosed with PE and received VA-ECMO on the day of admission. Patients who received systemic thrombolysis with monteplase or urokinase within two days of initiating VA-ECMO were defined as the thrombolysis group and the remaining patients as the control group. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and secondary outcomes were favorable neurological outcomes, length of hospital stay, VA-ECMO duration, total hospitalization cost, major bleeding, and blood transfusion volume. Propensity-score inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was performed to compare the outcomes between the groups. RESULTS: Of 1220 eligible patients, 432 (35%) received systemic thrombolysis within two days of initiating VA-ECMO. Among the unweighted cohort, patients in the thrombolysis group were less likely to have poor consciousness at admission, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, and left heart catheterization. After IPTW, the patient characteristics were well-balanced between the two groups The crude in-hospital mortality was 52% in the thrombolysis group and 61% in the control group. After IPTW, in-hospital mortality did not differ significantly between the two groups (risk difference: - 3.0%, 95% confidence interval: - 9.6% to 3.5%). There were also no significant differences in the secondary outcomes. Sensitivity analyses showed a significant difference in major bleeding between the monteplase and control groups (risk difference: 6.9%, 95% confidence interval: 1.7% to 12.1%), excluding patients who received urokinase. There were no significant differences in the other sensitivity and subgroup analyses except for the total hospitalization cost. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic thrombolysis was not associated with reduced in-hospital mortality or increased major bleeding in the high-risk PE patients receiving VA-ECMO. However, systemic thrombolysis with monteplase was associated with increased major bleeding.

Rationale and study design of the GOREISAN for heart failure (GOREISAN-HF) trial: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The decongestion strategy using loop diuretics is essential for improving signs and symptoms of heart failure (HF). However, chronic use of loop diuretics in HF has been linked to worsening renal function and adverse clinical outcomes in a dose-dependent manner. Goreisan, a traditional Japanese herbal medicine, has a long history of use in Japan for regulating body fluid homeostasis and has been recognized as causing less adverse outcomes such as dehydration in contrast to loop diuretics in clinical practice. Therefore, we designed the GOREISAN-HF trial to evaluate the long-term effects of a new decongestion strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. METHODS: The GOREISAN-HF trial is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, pragmatic, randomized, comparative effectiveness trial in which we will enroll 2,192 patients hospitalized for HF at 68 hospitals in Japan. All study participants will be randomly assigned to either a decongestion strategy that adds Goreisan at a dose of 7.5 g daily on top of usual care or usual care alone. Investigators have the flexibility to change the existing diuretic regimen in both groups. The primary end point is the improvement rate of cardiac edema at 12-month follow-up, and the co-primary end point is a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization up to the end of the planned follow-up period. Secondary end points include longitudinal changes in patient-reported outcomes, loop diuretics dose, and renal function. CONCLUSIONS: The GOREISAN-HF is the first large-scale randomized pragmatic trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a new congestion control strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04691700.

Relationship between atrial fibrillation and a liver fibrogenesis marker in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hemodynamic disturbance in heart failure (HF) induces extra-cardiac organ injury. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with HF. The relationship between AF and organ injury in HF remains unclear. We investigated the relationship between AF and the liver fibrosis marker, type IV collagen 7S (P4NP 7S) in patients with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: From a pooled dataset of 3 observational cohorts of hospitalized HF, 720 patients in whom P4NP 7S was measured before discharge were included. Median P4NP 7S were 5.1, 5.3, and 6.2 ng/mL in the sinus rhythm (SR) (n = 368), paroxysmal AF (n = 67), and persistent AF (n = 285) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression analysis, the significant association with P4NP 7S was found for persistent AF (P < 0.001). The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary composite endpoint of cardiac death and HF hospitalization were 27.6, 24.1, and 34.5% in the SR, paroxysmal AF, and persistent AF groups, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.07) and 25.3 and 34.5% in the low (below median) and high P4NP 7S groups, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.005). The adjusted risks of persistent AF versus SR and high P4NP 7S versus low P4NP 7S for the primary endpoint were 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.89) and 1.52 (1.14-2.03), respectively. When patients were divided based on a combination of AF and P4NP 7S, concomitant persistent AF and high P4NP 7S portended a dismal prognosis. CONCLUSION: AF is associated with an increase in the liver fibrosis marker. Co-presence of persistent AF and P4NP 7S may portend adverse clinical outcomes.