Incidence and survival of uveal melanoma in Northern Ireland: how incomplete data can skew results in rare cancers.

BACKGROUND: The majority of Northern Irish uveal melanoma (UM) patients are diagnosed in Sheffield. This study aims to present incidence and survival outcomes for UM patients from Northern Ireland (NI). METHODS: Collaborative retrospective study between Sheffield and Northern Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR). For UM cases not on both databases, outcomes and survival rates (via Kaplan-Meier analysis) were compared. Anonymised NICR data were used to calculate whole-population incidence of UM for NI. RESULTS: In total, 161 patients from NI were diagnosed in Sheffield, 90 of which were not registered with NICR at the start of this study. Data-omissions were not consistent across patient groups, leading to significant differences between those patients registered and those not. Registered patients had an all-cause 5-year survival rate of only 68.9% compared to 92.5% of those not registered (p < 0.01) and were >17x more likely to have systemic metastases than those not registered (p < 0·001). Following rectification of data-omissions, the European age-standardised incidence rate of UM for NI was 8·6 per million. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the impact of incomplete population-wide data, serving as a real-world lesson in case-identification bias. Rare cancers are at higher risk of omission due to systemic failures as the small numbers involved are not detected by system-wide validation procedures. Following this study, data-transfer agreements between England and NI were actioned, preventing future data-omissions. We present survival and incidence data for UM in NI for the first time, showing the incidence is amongst the highest in Europe, with good survival rates.

OptiBIRTH: a cluster randomised trial of a complex intervention to increase vaginal birth after caesarean section.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence supporting the safety of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC), rates are low in many countries. METHODS: OptiBIRTH investigated the effects of a woman-centred intervention designed to increase VBAC rates through an unblinded cluster randomised trial in 15 maternity units with VBAC rates < 35% in Germany, Ireland and Italy. Sites were matched in pairs or triplets based on annual birth numbers and VBAC rate, and randomised, 1:1 or 2:1, intervention versus control, following trial registration. The intervention involved evidence-based education of clinicians and women with one previous caesarean section (CS), appointment of opinion leaders, audit/peer review, and joint discussions by women and clinicians. Control sites provided usual care. Primary outcome was annual hospital-level VBAC rates before the trial (2012) versus final year of the trial (2016). Between April 2014 and October 2015, 2002 women were recruited (intervention 1195, control 807), with mode-of-birth data available for 1940 women. RESULTS: The OptiBIRTH intervention was feasible and safe across hospital settings in three countries. There was no statistically significant difference in the change in the proportion of women having a VBAC between intervention sites (25.6% in 2012 to 25.1% in 2016) and control sites (18.3 to 22.3%) (odds ratio adjusted for differences between intervention and control groups (2012) and for homogeneity in VBAC rates at sites in the countries: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.67, 1.14, p = 0.32 based on 5674 women (2012) and 5284 (2016) with outcome data. Among recruited women with birth data, 4/1147 perinatal deaths > 24 weeks gestation occurred in the intervention group (0.34%) and 4/782 in the control group (0.51%), and two uterine ruptures (one per group), a rate of 1:1000. CONCLUSIONS: Changing clinical practice takes time. As elective repeat CS is the most common reason for CS in multiparous women, interventions that are feasible and safe and that have been shown to lead to decreasing repeat CS, should be promoted. Continued research to refine the best way of promoting VBAC is essential. This may best be done using an implementation science approach that can modify evidence-based interventions in response to changing clinical circumstances. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The OptiBIRTH trial was registered on 3/4/2013. Trial registration number ISRCTN10612254.

Labour characteristics of women achieving successful vaginal birth after caesarean section in three European countries.

OBJECTIVE: Knowledge about labour characteristics of women achieving successful vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) might be used to improve labour and birth management. This study examined sociodemographic and labour process-related factors regarding a) differences between countries, b) the comparison of successful VBAC with unplanned caesarean section, and c) predictors for the success of planned VBAC in three European countries. DESIGN: We analysed observational data collected within the OptiBIRTH trial, a cluster-randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Fifteen study sites in Ireland, Italy and Germany, five in each country. PARTICIPANTS: 790 participants going into labour for planned VBAC. MEASUREMENTS: Descriptive statistics and random-effects logistic regression models were applied. FINDINGS: The pooled successful VBAC-rate was 74.6%. Italy had the highest proportion of women receiving none of the four intrapartum interventions amniotomy (ARM), oxytocin, epidural or opioids (42.5% vs Ireland: 26.8% and Germany: 25.3%, p < 0.001). Earlier performance of ARM was associated with successful VBAC (3.50 hrs vs 6.08 hrs, p = 0.004). A positive predictor for successful vaginal birth was a previous vaginal birth (OR=3.73, 95% CI [2.17, 6.44], p < 0.001). The effect of ARM increased with longer labour duration (OR for interaction term=1.06, 95% CI [1.004, 1.12], p = 0.035). Higher infant birthweight (OR per kg=0.34, 95% CI [0.23, 0.50], p < 0.001), ARM (reference spontaneous rupture of membranes (SROM), OR=0.20, 95% CI [0.11, 0.37], p < 0.001) and a longer labour duration (OR per hour=0.93, 95% CI [0.90, 0.97], p < 0.001) decreased the odds of a vaginal birth. KEY CONCLUSION: Women with a previous vaginal birth, an infant with a lower birth weight, SROM and a shorter labour duration were most likely to have a successful vaginal birth. If SROM did not occur, an earlier ARM increased the odds of a vaginal birth. IMPLICATION FOR PRACTICE: Labour progress should be accelerated by fostering endogenous uterine contractions. With slow labour progress and intact membranes, ARM might increase the chance of a vaginal birth.

Process evaluation for OptiBIRTH, a randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention designed to increase rates of vaginal birth after caesarean section.

BACKGROUND: Complex interventions encompassing several interconnecting and interacting components can be challenging to evaluate. Examining the underlying trial processes while an intervention is being tested can assist in explaining why an intervention was effective (or not). This paper describes a process evaluation of a pan-European cluster randomised controlled trial, OptiBIRTH (undertaken in Ireland, Italy and Germany), that successfully used both quantitative and qualitative methods to enhance understanding of the underlying trial mechanisms and their effect on the trial outcome. METHODS: We carried out a mixed methods process evaluation. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from observation of the implementation of the intervention in practice to determine whether it was delivered according to the original protocol. Data were examined to assess the delivery of the various components of the intervention and the receipt of the intervention by key stakeholders (pregnant women, midwives, obstetricians). Using ethnography, an exploration of perceived experiences from a range of recipients was conducted to understand the perspective of both those delivering and those receiving the intervention. RESULTS: Engagement by stakeholders with the different components of the intervention varied from minimal intensity of women's engagement with antenatal classes, to moderate intensity of engagement with online resources, to high intensity of clinicians' exposure to the education sessions provided. The ethnography determined that, although the overall culture in the intervention site did not change, smaller, more individual cultural changes were observed. The fidelity of the delivery of the intervention scored average quality marks of 80% and above on repeat assessments. CONCLUSION: Nesting a process evaluation within the trial enabled the observation of the mode of action of the intervention in its practice context and ensured that the intervention was delivered with a good level of consistency. Implementation problems were identified as they arose and were addressed accordingly. When dealing with a complex intervention, collecting and analysing both quantitative and qualitative data, as we did, can greatly enhance the process evaluation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials Register, ISRCTN10612254 . Registered on 3 April 2013.

Improving the organisation of maternal health service delivery and optimising childbirth by increasing vaginal birth after caesarean section through enhanced women-centred care (OptiBIRTH trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN10612254).

BACKGROUND: The proportion of pregnant women who have a caesarean section shows a wide variation across Europe, and concern exists that these proportions are increasing. Much of the increase in caesarean sections in recent years is due to a cascade effect in which a woman who has had one caesarean section is much more likely to have one again if she has another baby. In some places, it has become common practice for a woman who has had a caesarean section to have this procedure again as a matter of routine. The alternative, vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC), which has been widely recommended, results in fewer undesired results or complications and is the preferred option for most women. However, VBAC rates in some countries are much lower than in other countries. METHODS/DESIGN: The OptiBIRTH trial uses a cluster randomised design to test a specially developed approach to try to improve the VBAC rate. It will attempt to increase VBAC rates from 25 % to 40 % through increased women-centred care and women's involvement in their care. Sixteen hospitals in Germany, Ireland and Italy agreed to join the study, and each hospital was randomly allocated to be either an intervention or a control site. DISCUSSION: If the OptiBIRTH intervention succeeds in increasing VBAC rates, its application across Europe might avoid the 160,000 unnecessary caesarean sections that occur every year at an extra direct annual cost of more than €150 million. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10612254 , registered 3 April 2013.

Lithium usage and renal function testing in a large UK community population; a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the prevalence of lithium use, monitoring practice and associated effects on renal function in a large UK community sample. METHOD: A large population-based renal function database was cross-referenced with a general practitioner database of 404,673 patients. The renal function of patients prescribed lithium during the 2-year period was compared with that of matched controls. The renal monitoring patterns of these cases were investigated in a naturalistic observational study. Data underwent parametric testing - continuous variables by analysis of variance, with appropriate adjustment, and categorical outcomes by χ(2) testing. Block analysis of variance was undertaken on case-control data. RESULTS: A total of 422 patients in the database were prescribed lithium. Renal function monitoring in accordance with published guidelines occurred in 69% of patients. Patients taking lithium had a significantly higher serum creatinine (5.8 µmol/L, P<.001) and lower glomerular filtration rate (5.9 ml/min, P<.001) when compared to matched controls. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study carried out in a large community sample. Lithium remains widely prescribed in the community setting. The study confirms that lithium has a statistically and clinically significant negative effect on renal function. Despite published guidelines and recognition of the importance of serial measurements, monitoring of renal function is inconsistent.

The finding of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate is associated with increased mortality in a large UK population.

BACKGROUND: CKD as defined by KDIGO/KDOQI has been shown to affect ~ 8.5% of the UK population. The prevalence of CKD in the UK is similar to that in the USA, yet incident dialysis rates are dramatically different. This retrospective cohort study investigates the association between reduced kidney function and mortality in a large UK population. METHODS: All serum creatinine results covering Northern Ireland's 1.7 million population were collected between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated for all serum creatinine measurements using four-variable MDRD equation (IDMS aligned). Patients were followed up for both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality data until the end of December 2006. Patients on renal replacement therapy were excluded. Subgroup analysis in the 75,345 subjects enrolled within a parallel primary care study permitted additional survival analysis with adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1,967,827 serum creatinine results from 533,798 patients were collected. During the period of follow-up, 59,980 deaths occurred. In multivariate survival analysis, using eGFR as a time-varying covariate, a graded association between CKD (defined by eGFR) and all-cause mortality was identified. Compared with participants with an eGFR of > 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the adjusted hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for participants with an eGFR of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.02 (0.99-1.04), an eGFR of 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.44 (1.40-1.47), an eGFR of 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 2.12 (2.05-2.20) and an eGFR of < 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 3.46 (3.24-3.70). Significantly, increased all-cause mortality was associated with an eGFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) following adjustment for age and gender. The association between cardiovascular mortality and reduced renal function continued to be significant for participants with an eGFR of 45-65 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Subgroup analysis in 75,345 individuals with more detailed clinical information available confirmed this association following adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors in addition to age and gender. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a graded association between reduced renal function as represented by eGFR and mortality in a UK population. The all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk increases sharply when estimated GFR falls < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). The association between an eGFR measured between 45 and 65 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and cardiovascular mortality persists in this cohort and highlights the ongoing uncertainty in accurately categorizing renal dysfunction.

The practical implications of using standardized estimation equations in calculating the prevalence of chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) chronic kidney disease (CKD) guidelines have focused on the utility of using the modified four-variable MDRD equation (now traceable by isotope dilution mass spectrometry IDMS) in calculating estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs). This study assesses the practical implications of eGFR correction equations on the range of creatinine assays currently used in the UK and further investigates the effect of these equations on the calculated prevalence of CKD in one UK region METHODS: Using simulation, a range of creatinine data (30-300 micromol/l) was generated for male and female patients aged 20-100 years. The maximum differences between the IDMS and MDRD equations for all 14 UK laboratory techniques for serum creatinine measurement were explored with an average of individual eGFRs calculated according to MDRD and IDMS < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Similar procedures were applied to 712,540 samples from patients > or = 18 years (reflecting the five methods for serum creatinine measurement utilized in Northern Ireland) to explore, graphically, maximum differences in assays. CKD prevalence using both estimation equations was compared using an existing cohort of observed data. RESULTS: Simulated data indicates that the majority of laboratories in the UK have small differences between the IDMS and MDRD methods of eGFR measurement for stages 4 and 5 CKD (where the averaged maximum difference for all laboratory methods was 1.27 ml/min/1.73 m(2) for females and 1.59 ml/min/1.73 m(2) for males). MDRD deviated furthest from the IDMS results for the Endpoint Jaffe method: the maximum difference of 9.93 ml/min/1.73 m(2) for females and 5.42 ml/min/1.73 m(2) for males occurred at extreme ages and in those with eGFR > 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Observed data for 93,870 patients yielded a first MDRD eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in 2001. 66,429 (71%) had a second test > 3 months later of which 47,093 (71%) continued to have an eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Estimated crude prevalence was 3.97% for laboratory detected CKD in adults using the MDRD equation which fell to 3.69% when applying the IDMS equation. Over 95% of this difference in prevalence was explained by older females with stage 3 CKD (eGFR 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) close to the stage 2 CKD (eGFR 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) interface. CONCLUSIONS: Improved accuracy of eGFR is obtainable by using IDMS correction especially in the earlier stages of CKD 1-3. Our data indicates that this improved accuracy could lead to reduced prevalence estimates and potentially a decreased likelihood of onward referral to nephrology services particularly in older females.

Are gatekeepers to renal services referring patients equitably?

OBJECTIVE: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) benefit from specialist interventions to retard progression of renal failure and prevent cardiovascular events. Certain patient groups have poor access to specialist renal services when dialysis is required. This study used a population-based laboratory database to investigate access to and timeliness of referral to renal specialists relatively early in the course of the disease. METHODS: All tests for serum creatinine and haemoglobin (Hb) A(1)c in Northern Ireland in a two-year period (2001 and 2002) were retrieved for 345,441 adults. Of these, 16,856 patients had at least one serum creatinine level above 150 micromol/L in 2001 not deemed to be due to acute renal failure (crude prevalence 1.42%). This cohort was followed until the end of 2002 and the differences in the time to referral to a specialist were assessed using Cox's proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Diabetic patients, older patients and those living in deprived areas were significantly more likely to have serum creatinine testing, compared with non-diabetic, younger and those living in more affluent areas. Delays in referral to renal specialists for patients with raised serum creatinine levels were significantly shorter among diabetic patients, women, younger individuals, those living in rural areas, those living close to renal centres and those living in deprived areas. Overall, only 19% of diabetic patients and 6% of non-diabetic patients who had CKD had seen a renal specialist within 12 months of their index creatinine test. CONCLUSION: Contrary to other diseases, disadvantaged patients do not seem to be under-investigated for renal disease compared with their more affluent neighbours and are generally referred earlier for specialist assessment. However, the absolute rate of timely specialist assessment is low. Recent changes in referral criteria for CKD will result in more referrals and will have serious resource implications. Opportunities for health gain among patients with declining renal function are being missed, particularly among the old and those living furthest from specialist centres.

Late referral for assessment of renal failure.

It has been recommended that adult patients with a serum creatinine above 150 mumol/l should be referred to a nephrologist for specialist assessment. This study ascertained all patients in Northern Ireland with creatinine above this concentration in 2001 (n = 19 286 ) to see if this triggered referral within the subsequent year. After exclusion of those who were already known to a nephrologist and those who had acute renal failure, it was found that younger patients and diabetic patients were more likely to be referred. There was no difference in referral rates between male and female patients. However, only 6.5% of all non-diabetic subjects and 19% of diabetic patients were referred within 12 months after a first increased serum creatinine test.