ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Severe toxicity is reported in about 30% of gastrointestinal cancer patients receiving 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy. To date, limited tools exist to identify at risk patients in this setting. The objective of this study was to address this need by designing a predictive model using a Bayesian network, a probabilistic graphical model offering robust, explainable predictions. METHODS: We utilized a dataset of 267 gastrointestinal cancer patients, conducting preprocessing, and splitting it into TRAIN and TEST sets (80%:20% ratio). The RandomForest algorithm assessed variable importance based on MeanDecreaseGini coefficient. The bnlearn R library helped design a Bayesian network model using a 10-fold cross-validation on the TRAIN set and the aic-cg method for network structure optimization. The model's performance was gauged based on accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, using cross-validation on the TRAIN set and independent validation on the TEST set. RESULTS: The model demonstrated satisfactory performance with an average accuracy of 0.85 (±0.05) and 0.80 on TRAIN and TEST datasets, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.82 (±0.14) and 0.87 (±0.07) for the TRAIN dataset, and 0.71 and 0.83 for the TEST dataset, respectively. A user-friendly tool was developed for clinical implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several limitations, our Bayesian network model demonstrated a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of developing severe haematological toxicity in gastrointestinal cancer patients receiving 5-FU-based chemotherapy. Future research should aim at model validation in larger cohorts of patients and different clinical settings.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: The objectives of this study were the creation and validation of a screening tool for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) for routine assessment by primary care physicians, ophthalmologists, other healthcare professionals, and the general population. Methods: A simple, self-administered questionnaire (Simplified Théa AMD Risk-Assessment Scale [STARS] version 4.0) which included well-established risk factors for AMD, such as family history, smoking, and dietary factors, was administered to patients during ophthalmology visits. A fundus examination was performed to determine presence of large soft drusen, pigmentary abnormalities, or late AMD. Based on data from the questionnaire and the clinical examination, predictive models were developed to estimate probability of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) score (categorized as low risk/high risk). The models were evaluated by area under the receiving operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: A total of 3854 subjects completed the questionnaire and underwent a fundus examination. Early/intermediate and late AMD were detected in 15.9% and 23.8% of the patients, respectively. A predictive model was developed with training, validation, and test datasets. The model in the test set had an area under the curve of 0.745 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.705-0.784), a positive predictive value of 0.500 (95% CI = 0.449-0.557), and a negative predictive value of 0.810 (95% CI = 0.770-0.844). Conclusions: The STARS questionnaire version 4.0 and the model identify patients at high risk of developing late AMD. Translational Relevance: The screening instrument described could be useful to evaluate the risk of late AMD in patients >55 years without having an eye examination, which could lead to more timely referrals and encourage lifestyle changes.