COVID-19 amplified racial disparities in the US criminal legal system.

The criminal legal system in the USA drives an incarceration rate that is the highest on the planet, with disparities by class and race among its signature features1-3. During the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the number of incarcerated people in the USA decreased by at least 17%-the largest, fastest reduction in prison population in American history4. Here we ask how this reduction influenced the racial composition of US prisons and consider possible mechanisms for these dynamics. Using an original dataset curated from public sources on prison demographics across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, we show that incarcerated white people benefited disproportionately from the decrease in the US prison population and that the fraction of incarcerated Black and Latino people sharply increased. This pattern of increased racial disparity exists across prison systems in nearly every state and reverses a decade-long trend before 2020 and the onset of COVID-19, when the proportion of incarcerated white people was increasing amid declining numbers of incarcerated Black people5. Although a variety of factors underlie these trends, we find that racial inequities in average sentence length are a major contributor. Ultimately, this study reveals how disruptions caused by COVID-19 exacerbated racial inequalities in the criminal legal system, and highlights key forces that sustain mass incarceration. To advance opportunities for data-driven social science, we publicly released the data associated with this study at Zenodo6.

Understanding Braess' Paradox in power grids.

The ongoing energy transition requires power grid extensions to connect renewable generators to consumers and to transfer power among distant areas. The process of grid extension requires a large investment of resources and is supposed to make grid operation more robust. Yet, counter-intuitively, increasing the capacity of existing lines or adding new lines may also reduce the overall system performance and even promote blackouts due to Braess' paradox. Braess' paradox was theoretically modeled but not yet proven in realistically scaled power grids. Here, we present an experimental setup demonstrating Braess' paradox in an AC power grid and show how it constrains ongoing large-scale grid extension projects. We present a topological theory that reveals the key mechanism and predicts Braessian grid extensions from the network structure. These results offer a theoretical method to understand and practical guidelines in support of preventing unsuitable infrastructures and the systemic planning of grid extensions.

Data-driven load profiles and the dynamics of residential electricity consumption.

The dynamics of power consumption constitutes an essential building block for planning and operating sustainable energy systems. Whereas variations in the dynamics of renewable energy generation are reasonably well studied, a deeper understanding of the variations in consumption dynamics is still missing. Here, we analyse highly resolved residential electricity consumption data of Austrian, German and UK households and propose a generally applicable data-driven load model. Specifically, we disentangle the average demand profiles from the demand fluctuations based purely on time series data. We introduce a stochastic model to quantitatively capture the highly intermittent demand fluctuations. Thereby, we offer a better understanding of demand dynamics, in particular its fluctuations, and provide general tools for disentangling mean demand and fluctuations for any given system, going beyond the standard load profile (SLP). Our insights on the demand dynamics may support planning and operating future-compliant (micro) grids in maintaining supply-demand balance.

Spatial heterogeneity of air pollution statistics in Europe.

Air pollution is one of the leading causes of death globally, and continues to have a detrimental effect on our health. In light of these impacts, an extensive range of statistical modelling approaches has been devised in order to better understand air pollution statistics. However, the time-varying statistics of different types of air pollutants are far from being fully understood. The observed probability density functions (PDFs) of concentrations depend very much on the spatial location and on the pollutant substance. In this paper, we analyse a large variety of data from 3544 different European monitoring sites and show that the PDFs of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide ([Formula: see text]) and particulate matter ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) concentrations generically exhibit heavy tails and are asymptotically well approximated by q-exponential distributions with a given width parameter [Formula: see text]. We observe that the power-law parameter q and the width parameter [Formula: see text] vary widely for the different spatial locations. For each substance, we find different patterns of parameter clouds in the [Formula: see text] plane. These depend on the type of pollutants and on the environmental characteristics (urban/suburban/rural/traffic/industrial/background). This means the effective statistical physics description of air pollution exhibits a strong degree of spatial heterogeneity.

Machine learning approach towards explaining water quality dynamics in an urbanised river.

Human activities alter river water quality and quantity, with consequences for the ecosystems of urbanised rivers. Quantifying the role of human-induced drivers in controlling spatio-temporal patterns in water quality is critical to develop successful strategies for improving the ecological health of urban rivers. Here, we analyse high-frequency electrical conductivity and temperature data collected from the River Chess in South-East England during a Citizen Science project. Utilizing machine learning, we find that boosted trees outperform GAM and accurately describe water quality dynamics with less than 1% error. SHapley Additive exPlanations reveal the importance of and the (inter)dependencies between the individual variables, such as river level and Wastewater Treatment Works (WWTW) outflow. WWTW outflows give rise to diurnal variations in electrical conductivity, which are detectable throughout the year, and to an increase in average water temperature of 1 [Formula: see text] in a 2 km reach downstream of the wastewater treatment works during low flows. Overall, we showcase how high-frequency water quality measurements initiated by a Citizen Science project, together with machine learning techniques, can help untangle key drivers of water quality dynamics in an urbanised chalk stream.

Revealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI.

Stable operation of an electric power system requires strict operational limits for the grid frequency. Fluctuations and external impacts can cause large frequency deviations and increased control efforts. Although these complex interdependencies can be modeled using machine learning algorithms, the black box character of many models limits insights and applicability. In this article, we introduce an explainable machine learning model that accurately predicts frequency stability indicators for three European synchronous areas. Using Shapley additive explanations, we identify key features and risk factors for frequency stability. We show how load and generation ramps determine frequency gradients, and we identify three classes of generation technologies with converse impacts. Control efforts vary strongly depending on the grid and time of day and are driven by ramps as well as electricity prices. Notably, renewable power generation is central only in the British grid, while forecasting errors play a major role in the Nordic grid.

Multi-hazard hospital evacuation planning during disease outbreaks using agent-based modeling.

As different types of hazards, including natural and man-made, can occur simultaneously, to implement an integrated and holistic risk management, a multi-hazard perspective on disaster risk management, including preparedness and planning, must be taken for a safer and more resilient society. Considering the emerging challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic has been introducing to regular hospital operations, there is a need to adapt emergency plans with the changing conditions, as well. Evacuation of patients with different mobility disabilities is a complicated process that needs planning, training, and efficient decision-making. These protocols need to be revisited for multi-hazard scenarios such as an ongoing disease outbreak during which additional infection control protocols might be in place to prevent transmission. Computational models can provide insights on optimal emergency evacuation strategies, such as the location of isolation units or alternative evacuation prioritization strategies. This study introduces a non-ICU patient classification framework developed based on available patient mobility data. An agent-based model was developed to simulate the evacuation of the emergency department at the Johns Hopkins Hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic due to a fire emergency. The results show a larger nursing team can reduce the median and upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the evacuation time by 36% and 33%, respectively. A dedicated exit door for COVID-19 patients is relatively less effective in reducing the median time, while it can reduce the upper bound by more than 50%.

Synthesis of Bench-Stable N-Quaternized Ketene N,O-Acetals and Preliminary Evaluation as Reagents in Organic Synthesis.

N-Quaternized ketene N,O-acetals are typically an unstable, transient class of compounds most commonly observed as reactive intermediates. In this report, we describe a general synthetic approach to a variety of bench-stable N-quaternized ketene N,O-acetals via treatment of pyridine or aniline bases with acetylenic ethers and an appropriate Brønsted or Lewis acid (triflic acid, triflimide, or scandium(III) triflate). The resulting pyridinium and anilinium salts can be used as reagents or synthetic intermediates in multiple reaction types. For example, N-(1-ethoxyvinyl)pyridinium or anilinium salts can thermally release highly reactive O-ethyl ketenium ions for use in acid catalyst-free electrophilic aromatic substitutions. N-(1-Ethoxyvinyl)-2-halopyridinium salts can be employed in peptide couplings as a derivative of Mukaiyama reagents or react with amines in nucleophilic aromatic substitutions under mild conditions. These preliminary reactions illustrate the broad potential of these currently understudied compounds in organic synthesis.

Fluctuations of water quality time series in rivers follow superstatistics.

Superstatistics is a general method from nonequilibrium statistical physics which has been applied to a variety of complex systems, ranging from hydrodynamic turbulence to traffic delays and air pollution dynamics. Here, we investigate water quality time series (such as dissolved oxygen concentrations and electrical conductivity) as measured in rivers and provide evidence that they exhibit superstatistical behavior. Our main example is time series as recorded in the River Chess in South East England. Specifically, we use seasonal detrending and empirical mode decomposition to separate trends from fluctuations for the measured data. With either detrending method, we observe heavy-tailed fluctuation distributions, which are well described by log-normal superstatistics for dissolved oxygen. Contrarily, we find a double peaked non-standard superstatistics for the electrical conductivity data, which we model using two combined χ 2 -distributions.

Statistical characterization of airplane delays.

The aviation industry is of great importance for a globally connected economy. Customer satisfaction with airlines and airport performance is considerably influenced by how much flights are delayed. But how should the delay be quantified with thousands of flights for each airport and airline? Here, we present a statistical analysis of arrival delays at several UK airports between 2018 and 2020. We establish a procedure to compare both mean delay and extreme events among airlines and airports, identifying a power-law decay of large delays. Furthermore, we note drastic changes in plane delay statistics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we find that delays are described by a superposition of simple distributions, leading to a superstatistics.

Open database analysis of scaling and spatio-temporal properties of power grid frequencies.

The electrical energy system has attracted much attention from an increasingly diverse research community. Many theoretical predictions have been made, from scaling laws of fluctuations to propagation velocities of disturbances. However, to validate any theory, empirical data from large-scale power systems are necessary but are rarely shared openly. Here, we analyse an open database of measurements of electric power grid frequencies across 17 locations in 12 synchronous areas on three continents. The power grid frequency is of particular interest, as it indicates the balance of supply and demand and carries information on deterministic, stochastic, and control influences. We perform a broad analysis of the recorded data, compare different synchronous areas and validate a previously conjectured scaling law. Furthermore, we show how fluctuations change from local independent oscillations to a homogeneous bulk behaviour. Overall, the presented open database and analyses constitute a step towards more shared, collaborative energy research.

Inverse Method to Determine Fatigue Properties of Materials by Combining Cyclic Indentation and Numerical Simulation.

The application of instrumented indentation to assess material properties like Young's modulus and microhardness has become a standard method. In recent developments, indentation experiments and simulations have been combined to inverse methods, from which further material parameters such as yield strength, work hardening rate, and tensile strength can be determined. In this work, an inverse method is introduced by which material parameters for cyclic plasticity, i.e., kinematic hardening parameters, can be determined. To accomplish this, cyclic Vickers indentation experiments are combined with finite element simulations of the indentation with unknown material properties, which are then determined by inverse analysis. To validate the proposed method, these parameters are subsequently applied to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of a material with success. The method has been validated successfully for a quenched and tempered martensitic steel and for technically pure copper, where an excellent agreement between measured and predicted cyclic stress-strain curves has been achieved. Hence, the proposed inverse method based on cyclic nanoindentation, as a quasi-nondestructive method, could complement or even substitute the resource-intensive conventional fatigue testing in the future for some applications.

Multilayer modeling of adoption dynamics in energy demand management.

Due to the emergence of new technologies, the whole electricity system is undergoing transformations on a scale and pace never observed before. The decentralization of energy resources and the smart grid have forced utility services to rethink their relationships with customers. Demand response (DR) seeks to adjust the demand for power instead of adjusting the supply. However, DR business models rely on customer participation and can only be effective when large numbers of customers in close geographic vicinity, e.g., connected to the same transformer, opt in. Here, we introduce a model for the dynamics of service adoption on a two-layer multiplex network: the layer of social interactions among customers and the power-grid layer connecting the households. While the adoption process-based on peer-to-peer communication-runs on the social layer, the time-dependent recovery rate of the nodes depends on the states of their neighbors on the power-grid layer, making an infected node surrounded by infectious ones less keen to recover. Numerical simulations of the model on synthetic and real-world networks show that a strong local influence of the customers' actions leads to a discontinuous transition where either none or all the nodes in the network are infected, depending on the infection rate and social pressure to adopt. We find that clusters of early adopters act as points of high local pressure, helping maintaining adopters, and facilitating the eventual adoption of all nodes. This suggests direct marketing strategies on how to efficiently establish and maintain new technologies such as DR schemes.

Wind Power Persistence Characterized by Superstatistics.

Mitigating climate change demands a transition towards renewable electricity generation, with wind power being a particularly promising technology. Long periods either of high or of low wind therefore essentially define the necessary amount of storage to balance the power system. While the general statistics of wind velocities have been studied extensively, persistence (waiting) time statistics of wind is far from well understood. Here, we investigate the statistics of both high- and low-wind persistence. We find heavy tails and explain them as a superposition of different wind conditions, requiring q-exponential distributions instead of exponential distributions. Persistent wind conditions are not necessarily caused by stationary atmospheric circulation patterns nor by recurring individual weather types but may emerge as a combination of multiple weather types and circulation patterns. This also leads to Fréchet instead of Gumbel extreme value statistics. Understanding wind persistence statistically and synoptically may help to ensure a reliable and economically feasible future energy system, which uses a high share of wind generation.

Dynamical modeling of cascading failures in the Turkish power grid.

A reliable supply of electricity is critical for our modern society, and any large-scale disturbance of the electrical system causes substantial costs. In 2015, one overloaded transmission line caused a cascading failure in the Turkish power grid, affecting about 75×106 people. Here, we analyze the Turkish power grid and its dynamical and statistical properties. Specifically, we propose, for the first time, a model that incorporates the dynamical properties and the complex network topology of the Turkish power grid to investigate cascading failures. We find that the network damage depends on the load and generation distribution in the network with centralized generation being more susceptible to failures than a decentralized one. Furthermore, economic considerations on transmission line capacity are shown to conflict with stability.

Micromechanical Modelling of the Influence of Strain Ratio on Fatigue Crack Initiation in a Martensitic Steel-A Comparison of Different Fatigue Indicator Parameters.

Micromechanical fatigue lifetime predictions, in particular for the high cycle fatigue regime, require an appropriate modelling of mean stress effects in order to account for lifetime reducing positive mean stresses. Focus of this micromechanical study is the comparison of three selected fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs), with respect to their applicability to different total strain ratios. In this work, investigations are performed on the modelling and prediction of the fatigue crack initiation life of the martensitic high-strength steel SAE 4150 for two different total strain ratios. First, multiple martensitic statistical volume elements (SVEs) are generated by multiscale Voronoi tessellations. Micromechanical fatigue simulations are then performed on these SVEs by means of a crystal plasticity model to obtain microstructure dependent fatigue responses. In order to account for the material specific fatigue damage zone, a non-local homogenisation scheme for the FIPs is introduced for lath martensitic microstructures. The numerical results of the different non-local FIPs are compared with experimental fatigue crack initiation results for two different total strain ratios. It is concluded that the multiaxial fatigue criteria proposed by Fatemi-Socie is superior for predicting fatigue crack initiation life to the energy dissipation criteria and the accumulated plastic slip criteria for the investigated total strain ratios.

Author Correction: Dynamically induced cascading failures in power grids.

The original version of this Article omitted the following from the Acknowledgements: 'Finally, we gratefully acknowledge support from the German Science Foundation (DFG) by a grant toward the Cluster of Excellence "Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden" (cfaed)'. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.