Assessing ChatGPT's ability to emulate human reviewers in scientific research: A descriptive and qualitative approach.

BACKGROUND: ChatGPT is an AI platform whose relevance in the peer review of scientific articles is steadily growing. Nonetheless, it has sparked debates over its potential biases and inaccuracies. This study aims to assess ChatGPT's ability to qualitatively emulate human reviewers in scientific research. METHODS: We included the first submitted version of the latest twenty original research articles published by the 3rd of July 2023, in a high-profile medical journal. Each article underwent evaluation by a minimum of three human reviewers during the initial review stage. Subsequently, three researchers with medical backgrounds and expertise in manuscript revision, independently and qualitatively assessed the agreement between the peer reviews generated by ChatGPT version GPT-4 and the comments provided by human reviewers for these articles. The level of agreement was categorized into complete, partial, none, or contradictory. RESULTS: 720 human reviewers' comments were assessed. There was a good agreement between the three assessors (Overall kappa >0.6). ChatGPT's comments demonstrated complete agreement in terms of quality and substance with 48 (6.7 %) human reviewers' comments, partially agreed with 92 (12.8 %), identifying issues necessitating further elaboration or recommending supplementary steps to address concerns, had no agreement with a significant 565 (78.5 %), and contradicted 15 (2.1 %). ChatGPT comments on methods had the lowest proportion of complete agreement (13 comments, 3.6 %), while general comments on the manuscript displayed the highest proportion of complete agreement (17 comments, 22.1 %). CONCLUSION: ChatGPT version GPT-4 has a limited ability to emulate human reviewers within the peer review process of scientific research.

Impact of changes in anaesthesia staff assignments on billing compliance, financial margins, and costs of anaesthesia services: development and application of a margin-cost estimation tool.

BACKGROUND: The US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services provide guidelines for the coverage of anaesthesia residents and certified registered nurse anaesthetists (CRNAs) by anaesthesiologists. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the anaesthesia staffing model increase billing compliance. METHODS: We analysed 13 926 anaesthesia cases performed between September 2019 and November 2019 (baseline), and between September 2020 and November 2020 (after change in staff model) at a US academic medical centre using an estimation tool. The intervention was assignment of additional 12-h weekday CRNAs plus an additional anaesthesiologist who covered weekdays after 17:00, weekends, and holidays. The proportion of cases with billing compliant coverage (covered either by solo anaesthesiologist or anaesthesiologist covering two or fewer residents or four or fewer CRNAs) was analysed using logistic and segmented regression analyses. RESULTS: The change in staff model was associated with a decrease in non-optimal anaesthesia staff assignments from 4.2% to 1.2% of anaesthesia cases (adjusted odds ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.20-0.32; P<0.001) and an increase in billable anaesthesia units of 0.6 per anaesthesia case (95% CI 0.4-0.8; P<0.001). An increased revenue margin associated with optimal staffing levels would only be achieved with salary levels at the 25th percentile of relevant benchmark compensation levels. Total staff overtime for all anaesthesia providers decreased (adjusted absolute difference -4.1 total overtime hours per day; 95% CI -7.0 to -1.3; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a change in anaesthesia staffing model was associated with improved billing compliance, higher billable anaesthesia units, and reduced overtime. The effects of the anaesthesia staff model on revenue and financial margin can be determined using our web-based margin-cost estimation tool.

Association of anaesthesia provider sex with perioperative complications: a two-centre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested that surgeon sex is associated with differential patient outcomes. Whether this also applies to anaesthesia providers is unclear. We hypothesised that female sex of the primary anaesthesia provider is associated with lower risk of perioperative complications. METHODS: The first case for all adult patients undergoing anaesthesia care between 2008 and 2022 at two academic healthcare networks in the USA was included in this retrospective cohort study. The primary exposure was the sex of the anaesthesia provider who spent the most time in the operating theatre during the case. The primary outcome was intraoperative complications, defined as hypotension (mean arterial blood pressure <55 mm Hg for ≥5 cumulative minutes) or hypoxaemia (oxygen saturation <90% for >2 consecutive minutes). The co-primary outcome was 30-day adverse postoperative events (including complications, readmission, and mortality). Analyses were adjusted for a priori defined confounders. RESULTS: Among 364,429 included patients, 57,550 (15.8%) experienced intraoperative complications and 55,168 (15.1%) experienced adverse postoperative events. Care by female compared with male anaesthesia providers was associated with lower risk of intraoperative complications (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94-0.97, P<0.001), which was magnified among non-trainees (aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.82-0.87, P-for-interaction <0.001). Anaesthesia provider sex was not associated with the composite of adverse postoperative events (aOR 1.00, 95% CI 0.98-1.02, P=0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Care by a female anaesthesia provider was associated with a lower risk of intraoperative complications, which was magnified among non-trainees. Future studies should investigate underlying mechanisms.

Impaired oxygenation after lung resection: Incidence and perioperative risk factors.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of postoperative oxygenation impairment after lung resection in the era of lung-protective management, and to identify perioperative factors associated with that impairment. DESIGN: Registry-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Two large academic hospitals in the United States. PATIENTS: 3081 ASA I-IV patients undergoing lung resection. MEASUREMENTS: 79 pre- and intraoperative variables, selected for inclusion based on a causal inference framework. The primary outcome of impaired oxygenation, an early marker of lung injury, was defined as at least one of the following within seven postoperative days: (1) SpO2 < 92%; (2) imputed PaO2/FiO2 < 300 mmHg [(1) or (2) occurring at least twice within 24 h]; (3) intensive oxygen therapy (mechanical ventilation or > 50% oxygen or high-flow oxygen). MAIN RESULTS: Oxygenation was impaired within seven postoperative days in 70.8% of patients (26.6% with PaO2/FiO2 < 200 mmHg or intensive oxygen therapy). In multivariable analysis, each additional cmH2O of intraoperative median driving pressure was associated with a 7% higher risk of impaired oxygenation (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.04 to 1.10). Higher median intraoperative FiO2 (OR 1.23; 95%CI 1.14 to 1.31 per 0.1) and PEEP (OR 1.12; 95%CI 1.04 to 1.21 per 1 cm H2O) were also associated with increased risk. History of COPD (OR 2.55; 95%CI 1.95 to 3.35) and intraoperative albuterol administration (OR 2.07; 95%CI 1.17 to 3.67) also showed reliable effects. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired postoperative oxygenation is common after lung resection and is associated with potentially modifiable pre- and intraoperative respiratory factors.

Increased Postoperative Opioid Consumption in the Presence of Coadministration of 5-Hydroxytryptamine Type 3 Antagonists with Acetaminophen: A Hospital Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: Acetaminophen and 5-hydroxytryptamine type 3 (5-HT3) receptor antagonists are administered as standard prophylaxes for postoperative pain, nausea, and vomiting. Preclinical studies, however, suggest that 5-HT3 antagonists may compromise acetaminophen's analgesic effect. This hospital registry study investigates whether 5-HT3 antagonists mitigate the analgesic effect of prophylactic acetaminophen in a perioperative setting. METHODS: This study included 55,016 adult patients undergoing general anesthesia for ambulatory procedures at a tertiary healthcare center in Massachusetts from 2015 to 2022. Using binary exposure variables and a comprehensive selection of preplanned patient- and procedure-related covariates for confounder control, the authors investigated whether intraoperative 5-HT3 antagonists affected the association between pre- or intraoperative acetaminophen and postoperative opioid consumption, gauged by opioid dose in milligram oral morphine equivalents (OME) administered in the postanesthesia care unit. A multivariable, zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was applied. RESULTS: A total of 3,166 patients (5.8%) received only acetaminophen, 15,438 (28.1%) only 5-HT3 antagonists, 31,850 (57.9%) both drugs, and 4,562 (8.3%) neither drug. The median postanesthesia care unit opioid dose was 7.5 mg OME (interquartile range, 7.5 to 14.3 mg OME) among 16,640 of 55,016 (30.2%) patients who received opioids, and the mean opioid dose was 3.2 mg OME across all patients (maximum cumulative dose, 20.4 mg OME). Acetaminophen administration was associated with a -5.5% (95% CI, -9.6 to -1.4%; P = 0.009; adjusted absolute difference, -0.19 mg OME; 95% CI, -0.33 to -0.05; P = 0.009) reduction in opioid consumption among patients who did not receive a 5-HT3 antagonist, while there was no effect in patients who received a 5-HT3 antagonist (adjusted absolute difference, 0.00 mg OME; 95% CI, -0.06 to 0.05; P = 0.93; P for interaction = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: A dose-dependent association of pre- or intraoperative acetaminophen with decreased postoperative opioid consumption was not observed when 5-HT3 antagonists were coadministered, suggesting that physicians might consider reserving 5-HT3 antagonists as rescue medication for postoperative nausea or vomiting when acetaminophen is administered for pain prophylaxis.

Adjustments of Ventilator Parameters during Operating Room-to-ICU Transition and 28-Day Mortality.

Rationale: Lung-protective mechanical ventilation strategies have been proven beneficial in the operating room (OR) and the ICU. However, differential practices in ventilator management persist, often resulting in adjustments of ventilator parameters when transitioning patients from the OR to the ICU. Objectives: To characterize patterns of ventilator adjustments during the transition of mechanically ventilated surgical patients from the OR to the ICU and assess their impact on 28-day mortality. Methods: Hospital registry study including patients undergoing general anesthesia with continued, controlled mechanical ventilation in the ICU between 2008 and 2022. Ventilator parameters were assessed 1 hour before and 6 hours after the transition. Measurements and Main Results: Of 2,103 patients, 212 (10.1%) died within 28 days. Upon OR-to-ICU transition, VT and driving pressure decreased (-1.1 ml/kg predicted body weight [IQR, -2.0 to -0.2]; P < 0.001; and -4.3 cm H2O [-8.2 to -1.2]; P < 0.001). Concomitantly, respiratory rates increased (+5.0 breaths/min [2.0 to 7.5]; P < 0.001), resulting overall in slightly higher mechanical power (MP) in the ICU (+0.7 J/min [-1.9 to 3.0]; P < 0.001). In adjusted analysis, increases in MP were associated with a higher 28-day mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.14; P < 0.001; adjusted risk difference, 0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.4-1.0, both per 1 J/min). Conclusion: During transition of mechanically ventilated patients from the OR to the ICU, ventilator adjustments resulting in higher MP were associated with a greater risk of 28-day mortality.

Intraoperative Opioid Waste and Association of Intraoperative Opioid Dose with Postoperative Adverse Outcomes: A Hospital Registry Study.

INTRODUCTION: Perioperative opioid use has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Additionally, opioid disposal carries significant costs, due to the waste of pharmaceutical products and the time needed by skilled labor to report the waste. In this study, we aimed to estimate costs and predict factors of opioid-associated intraoperative product waste, as well as to evaluate whether higher intraoperative opioid doses are associated with increased risk of adverse postoperative outcomes. METHODS: We included 170,607 patients undergoing general anesthesia and receiving intraoperative fentanyl, hydromorphone, or morphine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA, between January 2010 and June 2020. We estimated product waste-associated costs based on various opioid syringe sizes and determined predictors of opioid waste. Further, we evaluated whether higher opioid doses were associated with postoperative adverse events according to the severity-indexed, incident report-based medication error-reporting program classification. The primary outcome included post-extubation desaturation, postoperative nausea or vomiting, or postoperative somnolence or sedation. RESULTS: The use of the smallest syringe sizes (50 mcg for fentanyl, 0.2 mg for hydromorphone, and 2 mg for morphine) resulted in the lowest product waste-associated costs. The main predictor of opioid waste was the administration of more than one intraoperative opioid (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.64, 95% CI 7.40-7.89, P < 0.001). Intraoperative doses of fentanyl > 50-100 mcg (aOR = 1.17 [1.10-1.25], P < 0.001, adjusted risk difference [ARD] 2%) and > 100 mcg (aOR = 1.24 [1.16-1.33], P < 0.001, ARD 3%), hydromorphone > 1 mg (aOR = 1.13 [1.06-1.20], P < 0.001, ARD 2%), and morphine > 2-4 mg (aOR = 1.26 [1.02-1.56], P = 0.04, ARD 3%) and > 4 mg (aOR = 1.45 [1.18-1.77], P < 0.001, ARD 5%) were associated with higher risk of the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: Smaller syringe sizes of intraoperative opioids may help to reduce product waste and associated costs, as well postoperative adverse events through utilization of lower intraoperative opioid doses.

Association of ketamine use during procedural sedation with oxygen desaturation and healthcare utilisation: a multicentre retrospective hospital registry study.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the effects of ketamine on desaturation and the risk of nursing home discharge in patients undergoing procedural sedation by anaesthetists. METHODS: We included adult patients who underwent procedures under monitored anaesthetic care between 2005 and 2021 at two academic healthcare networks in the USA. The primary outcome was intraprocedural oxygen desaturation, defined as oxygen saturation <90% for ≥2 consecutive minutes. The co-primary outcome was a nursing home discharge. RESULTS: Among 234,170 included patients undergoing procedural sedation, intraprocedural desaturation occurred in 5.6% of patients who received ketamine vs 5.2% of patients who did not receive ketamine (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-1.29, P<0.001; adjusted absolute risk difference [ARDadj] 1%, 95% CI 0.7-1.3%, P<0.001). The effect was magnified by age >65 yr, smoking, or preprocedural ICU admission (P-for-interaction <0.001, ORadj 1.35, 95% CI 1.25-1.45, P<0.001; ARDadj 2%, 95% CI 1.56-2.49%, P<0.001), procedural risk factors (upper endoscopy of longer than 2 h; P-for-interaction <0.001, ORadj 2.91, 95% CI 1.85-4.58, P<0.001; ARDadj 16.2%, 95% CI 9.8-22.5%, P<0.001), and high ketamine dose (P-for-trend <0.001, ORadj 1.61, 95% CI, 1.43-1.81 for ketamine >0.5 mg kg-1). Concomitant opioid administration mitigated the risk (P-for-interaction <0.001). Ketamine was associated with higher odds of nursing home discharge (ORadj 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.21, P=0.012; ARDadj 0.25%, 95% CI 0.05-0.46%, P=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Ketamine use for procedural sedation was associated with an increased risk of oxygen desaturation and discharge to a nursing home. The effect was dose-dependent and magnified in subgroups of vulnerable patients.

Recovery and safety with prolonged high-frequency jet ventilation for catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: A hospital registry study from a New England healthcare network.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate post-procedural recovery as well as peri-procedural respiratory and hemodynamic safety parameters with prolonged use of high-frequency jet ventilation (HFJV) versus conventional ventilation in patients undergoing catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: Hospital registry study. SETTING: Tertiary academic teaching hospital in New England. PATIENTS: 1822 patients aged 18 years and older undergoing catheter ablation between January 2013 and June 2020. INTERVENTIONS: HFJV versus conventional mechanical ventilation. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) length of stay. In secondary analyses we assessed the effect of HFJV on intra-procedural hypoxemia, defined as the occurrence of peripheral hemoglobin oxygen saturation (SpO2) <90%, post-procedural respiratory complications (PRC) as well as intra-procedural hypocarbia and hypotension. Multivariable negative binomial and logistic regression analyses, adjusted for patient and procedural characteristics, were applied. MAIN RESULTS: 1157 patients (63%) received HFJV for a median (interquartile range [IQR]) duration of 307 (253-360) minutes. The median (IQR) length of stay in the PACU was 244 (172-370) minutes in patients who underwent ablation with conventional mechanical ventilation and 226 (163-361) minutes in patients receiving HFJV. In adjusted analyses, patients undergoing HFJV had a longer PACU length of stay (adjusted absolute difference: 37.7 min; 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.7-65.8; p = 0.008). There was a higher risk of intra-procedural hypocarbia (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] 5.90; 95%CI 2.63-13.23; p < 0.001) and hypotension (ORadj 1.88; 95%CI 1.31-2.72; p = 0.001) in patients undergoing HFJV. No association was found between the use of HFJV and intra-procedural hypoxemia or PRC (p = 0.51, and p = 0.97, respectively). CONCLUSION: After confounder adjustment, HFJV for catheter ablation procedures for treatment of atrial fibrillation was associated with a longer length of stay in the PACU. It was further associated with an increased risk of intra-procedural abnormalities including abnormal carbon dioxide homeostasis, as well as intra-procedural arterial hypotension.

Intraoperative Use of Phenylephrine versus Ephedrine and Postoperative Delirium: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The treatment of intraoperative hypotension with phenylephrine may impair cerebral perfusion through vasoconstriction, which has been linked to postoperative delirium. The hypothesis was that intraoperative administration of phenylephrine, compared to ephedrine, is associated with higher odds of postoperative delirium. METHODS: A total of 103,094 hospitalized adults undergoing general anesthesia for noncardiac, non-neurosurgical procedures between 2008 and 2020 at two tertiary academic healthcare networks in Massachusetts were included in this multicenter hospital registry study. The primary exposure was the administration of phenylephrine versus ephedrine during surgery, and the primary outcome was postoperative delirium within 7 days. Multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for a priori defined confounding variables including patient demographics, comorbidities, and procedural factors including magnitude of intraoperative hypotension were applied. RESULTS: Between the two healthcare networks, 78,982 (76.6%) patients received phenylephrine, and 24,112 (23.4%) patients received ephedrine during surgery; 770 patients (0.8%) developed delirium within 7 days. The median (interquartile range) total intraoperative dose of phenylephrine was 1.0 (0.2 to 3.3) mg and 10.0 (10.0 to 20.0) mg for ephedrine. In adjusted analyses, the administration of phenylephrine, compared to ephedrine, was associated with higher odds of developing postoperative delirium within 7 days (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.71; and adjusted absolute risk difference, 0.2%; 95% CI, 0.1 to 0.3%; P = 0.015). A keyword and manual chart review-based approach in a subset of 45,465 patients further validated these findings (delirium incidence, 3.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.49 to 2.37; P < 0.001). Fractional polynomial regression analysis further indicated a dose-dependent effect of phenylephrine (adjusted coefficient, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.14; P = 0.013, per each µg/kg increase in the cumulative phenylephrine dose). CONCLUSIONS: The administration of phenylephrine compared to ephedrine during general anesthesia was associated with higher odds of developing postoperative delirium. Based on these data, clinical trials are warranted to determine whether favoring ephedrine over phenylephrine for treatment of intraoperative hypotension can reduce delirium after surgery.

Association of Obstructive Sleep Apnea With Postoperative Delirium in Procedures of Moderate-to-High Complexity: A Hospital-Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients suffering from obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) experience chronic sleep disturbances and desaturation, factors that have been associated with postoperative delirium and that can be aggravated after anesthesia for complex procedures. We investigated whether OSA is associated with delirium after anesthesia, and whether this association is modified by procedural complexity. METHODS: Hospitalized patients ≥60 years who underwent general anesthesia or procedural sedation for procedures of moderate-to-high complexity between 2009 and 2020 at a tertiary health care network in Massachusetts were included. The primary exposure was OSA, defined based on International Classification of Diseases ( Ninth/Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification ) ( ICD-9 / 10-CM ) diagnostic codes, structured nursing interviews, anesthesia alert notes, and a validated risk score (BOSTN [body mass index, observed apnea, snoring, tiredness, and neck circumference]). The primary end point was delirium within 7 days after the procedure. Multivariable logistic regression and effect modification analyses adjusted for patient demographics, comorbidities, and procedural factors were applied. RESULTS: A total of 46,352 patients were included, of which 1694 patients (3.7%) developed delirium, 537 (3.2%) with OSA, and 1,157 (4.0%) without OSA. In adjusted analyses, OSA was not associated with postprocedural delirium in the overall cohort (adjusted odds ratio [OR adj ], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-1.20; P = .35). However, a high procedural complexity modified the primary association ( P value for interaction = .002). OSA patients had a higher risk of delirium after high-complexity procedures (≥40 work relative value units) such as cardiac (OR adj , 1.33; 95% CI, 1.08-1.64; P = .007, P value for interaction = .005) or thoracic surgery (OR adj , 1.89; 95% CI, 1.19-3.00; P = .007, P value for interaction = .009), but no increased risk after moderate complexity procedures, including general surgery (OR adj , 0.86; 95% CI, 0.55-1.35; P = .52). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to non-OSA patients, a history of OSA is associated with a higher risk after high-complexity procedures such as cardiac or thoracic surgery but not after procedures of moderate complexity.

High Mechanical Power and Driving Pressures are Associated With Postoperative Respiratory Failure Independent From Patients' Respiratory System Mechanics.

OBJECTIVES: High mechanical power and driving pressure (ΔP) have been associated with postoperative respiratory failure (PRF) and may be important parameters guiding mechanical ventilation. However, it remains unclear whether high mechanical power and ΔP merely reflect patients with poor respiratory system mechanics at risk of PRF. We investigated the effect of mechanical power and ΔP on PRF in cohorts after exact matching by patients' baseline respiratory system compliance. DESIGN: Hospital registry study. SETTING: Academic hospital in New England. PATIENTS: Adult patients undergoing general anesthesia between 2008 and 2020. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary exposure was high (≥ 6.7 J/min, cohort median) versus low mechanical power and the key-secondary exposure was high (≥ 15.0 cm H 2 O) versus low ΔP. The primary endpoint was PRF (reintubation or unplanned noninvasive ventilation within seven days). Among 97,555 included patients, 4,030 (4.1%) developed PRF. In adjusted analyses, high intraoperative mechanical power and ΔP were associated with higher odds of PRF (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.37 [95% CI, 1.25-1.50]; p < 0.001 and aOR 1.45 [95% CI, 1.31-1.60]; p < 0.001, respectively). There was large variability in applied ventilatory parameters, dependent on the anesthesia provider. This facilitated matching of 63,612 (mechanical power cohort) and 53,260 (ΔP cohort) patients, yielding identical baseline standardized respiratory system compliance (standardized difference [SDiff] = 0.00) with distinctly different mechanical power (9.4 [2.4] vs 4.9 [1.3] J/min; SDiff = -2.33) and ΔP (19.3 [4.1] vs 11.9 [2.1] cm H 2 O; SDiff = -2.27). After matching, high mechanical power and ΔP remained associated with higher risk of PRF (aOR 1.30 [95% CI, 1.17-1.45]; p < 0.001 and aOR 1.28 [95% CI, 1.12-1.46]; p < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: High mechanical power and ΔP are associated with PRF independent of patient's baseline respiratory system compliance. Our findings support utilization of these parameters for titrating mechanical ventilation in the operating room and ICU.

Affiliation Bias in Peer Review of Abstracts by a Large Language Model.

This study assesses affiliation bias in peer review of medical abstracts by a commonly used large language model.

Development and validation of an instrument to predict prolonged length of stay in the postanesthesia care unit following ambulatory surgery.

PURPOSE: We sought to develop and validate an Anticipated Surveillance Requirement Prediction Instrument (ASRI) for prediction of prolonged postanesthesia care unit length of stay (PACU-LOS, more than four hours) after ambulatory surgery. METHODS: We analyzed hospital registry data from patients who received anesthesia care in ambulatory surgery centres (ASCs) of university-affiliated hospital networks in New York, USA (development and internal validation cohort [n = 183,711]) and Massachusetts, USA (validation cohort [n = 148,105]). We used stepwise backwards elimination to create ASRI. RESULTS: The model showed discriminatory ability in the development, internal, and external validation cohorts with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.83), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.83), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.80), respectively. In cases started in the afternoon, ASRI scores ≥ 43 had a total predicted risk for PACU stay past 8 p.m. of 32% (95% CI, 31.1 to 33.3) vs 8% (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.5) compared with low score values (P-for-interaction < 0.001), which translated to a higher direct PACU cost of care of USD 207 (95% CI, 194 to 2,019; model estimate, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.73; P < 0.001) The effects of using the ASRI score on PACU use efficiency were greater in a free-standing ASC with no limitations on PACU bed availability. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a preoperative prediction tool for prolonged PACU-LOS after ambulatory surgery that can be used to guide scheduling in ambulatory surgery to optimize PACU use during normal work hours, particularly in settings without limitation of PACU bed availability.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons cherché à mettre au point et à valider un Instrument de prédiction anticipée des besoins de surveillance pour anticiper toute prolongation de la durée de séjour en salle de réveil (plus de quatre heures) après chirurgie ambulatoire. MéTHODE: Nous avons analysé les données enregistrées dans le registre de l'hôpital des patient·es qui ont reçu des soins d'anesthésie dans des centres de chirurgie ambulatoire (CCA) des réseaux hospitaliers affiliés à une université à New York, aux États-Unis (cohorte de développement et de validation interne [n = 183 711]) et au Massachusetts, États-Unis (cohorte de validation [n = 148 105]). Nous avons utilisé un procédé d'élimination progressive régressive pour créer notre instrument de prédiction. RéSULTATS: Le modèle a montré une capacité discriminatoire dans les cohortes de développement, de validation interne et de validation externe, avec des surfaces sous la courbe de fonction d'efficacité de l'opérateur (ROC) de 0,82 (intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 %, 0,82 à 0,83), 0,82 (IC 95 %, 0,81 à 0,83), et 0,80 (IC 95 %, 0,79 à 0,80), respectivement. Dans les cas commencés en après-midi, les scores sur notre instrument de prédiction ≥ 43 montraient un risque total prédit de séjour en salle de réveil après 20 h de 32 % (IC 95 %, 31,1 à 33,3) vs 8 % (IC 95 %, 7,9 à 8,5) comparativement aux valeurs de score faibles (P-pour-interaction < 0,001), ce qui s'est traduit par une augmentation de 207 USD du coût direct des soins en salle de réveil (IC 95 %, 194 à 2019; estimation du modèle, 1,68; IC 95 %, 1,64 à 1,73; P < 0,001). Les effets de l'utilisation du score de notre instrument de prédiction sur l'efficacité d'utilisation de la salle de réveil étaient plus importants dans un CCA autonome sans limitation dans la disponibilité des lits en salle de réveil. CONCLUSION: Nous avons mis au point et validé un outil de prédiction préopératoire de la prolongation de la durée de séjour en salle de réveil après une chirurgie ambulatoire qui peut être utilisé pour guider la planification en chirurgie ambulatoire afin d'optimiser l'utilisation de la salle de réveil pendant les heures normales de travail, en particulier dans les milieux sans limitation de disponibilité des lits en salle de réveil.

Inflammatory subphenotypes in patients at risk of ARDS: evidence from the LIPS-A trial.

PURPOSE: Latent class analysis (LCA) has identified hyper- and non-hyper-inflammatory subphenotypes in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). It is unknown how early inflammatory subphenotypes can be identified in patients at risk of ARDS. We aimed to test for inflammatory subphenotypes upon presentation to the emergency department. METHODS: LIPS-A was a trial of aspirin to prevent ARDS in at-risk patients presenting to the emergency department. In this secondary analysis, we performed LCA using clinical, blood test, and biomarker variables. RESULTS: Among 376 (96.4%) patients from the LIPS-A trial, two classes were identified upon presentation to the emergency department (day 0): 72 (19.1%) patients demonstrated characteristics of a hyper-inflammatory and 304 (80.9%) of a non-hyper-inflammatory subphenotype. 15.3% of patients in the hyper- and 8.2% in the non-hyper-inflammatory class developed ARDS (p = 0.07). Patients in the hyper-inflammatory class had fewer ventilator-free days (median [interquartile range, IQR] 28[23-28] versus 28[27-28]; p = 0.010), longer intensive care unit (3[2-6] versus 0[0-3] days; p < 0.001) and hospital (9[6-18] versus 5[3-9] days; p < 0.001) length of stay, and higher 1-year mortality (34.7% versus 20%; p = 0.008). Subphenotypes were identified on day 1 and 4 in a subgroup with available data (n = 244). 77.9% of patients remained in their baseline class throughout day 4. Patients with a hyper-inflammatory subphenotype throughout the study period (n = 22) were at higher risk of ARDS (36.4% versus 10.4%; p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Hyper- and non-hyper-inflammatory subphenotypes may precede ARDS development, remain identifiable over time, and can be identified upon presentation to the emergency department. A hyper-inflammatory subphenotype predicts worse outcomes.