ABSTRACT
Ethiopia is among the world's poorest nations, and its economy is growing extremely slowly; thus, the government's budget to manage environmental amenities is not always sufficient. Thus, for the provision of environmental management services such as the eradication of Prosopis juliflora, the participation of local households and other stakeholders is crucial. This study is therefore initiated with the objective of assessing rural households' demands for mitigating Prosopis juliflora invasion in the Afar Region of Ethiopia. A multistage sampling technique was employed to obtain the 313 sample rural households that were used in the analysis, and those sample households were selected randomly and independently from the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of Afar National Regional State, Ethiopia. In doing this, a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model was used to determine factors affecting rural households' demands for mitigating Prosopis juliflora invasion. Consequently, as per the inferential statistical results, there was a significant mean/percentage difference between willing and nonwilling households for the hypothesized variables, except for some variables such as farm experience; years lived in the area, distance from the market, and dependency ratio. Furthermore, the seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model result indicates that sex, family size, tenure security, livestock holding, frequency of extension contact, and years lived in the area were important factors influencing the willingness to participate in Prosopis juliflora management practices positively, whereas age, off-farm/nonincome, and bid value affected willingness to pay negatively and significantly. Hence, to improve the participation level of households, policymakers should target these variables.
Subject(s)
Family Characteristics , Prosopis , Rural Population , Ethiopia , Prosopis/growth & development , Humans , Male , Female , Introduced Species , Conservation of Natural Resources/methods , AdultABSTRACT
Assessing the risk of nontarget attack (NTA) for federally listed threatened and endangered (T&E) plant species confamilial to invasive plants targeted for classical biological control, is one of the most important objectives of pre-release environmental safety assessments in the United States. However, evaluating potential NTA on T&E species is often complicated by restrictive agency requirements for obtaining propagules, or the ability to propagate plants and rear agents to the appropriate phenostages synchronously for testing, or both. Here, we assessed whether plant cues associated with a host recognition can be used for testing the attractiveness of four T&E and one rare single population plant species non-destructively for a candidate biocontrol agent. We used the seed-feeding weevil, Mogulones borraginis, a candidate for the biological control of the invasive plant, Cynoglossum officinale (Boraginaceae) as the study system. We collected olfactory and visual cues in the form of flowering sprigs from T&E plant species confamilial to the invasive plant in a non-destructive manner and used them to measure behavioral responses and searching time of weevils. Female weevils preferred C. officinale to all tested plant species in dual-choice bioassays using either olfactory or visual cues in a modified y-tube device. Furthermore, female weevils were repelled by the combined olfactory and visual cues from all tested T&E plant species in a dual-choice test against controls (e.g., purified air in an empty arm), indicating that it would be extremely unlikely for the weevil to attack any of these species upon release in the United States. Principal component analysis based on 61 volatile organic compounds effectively separated the five confamilial plant species and C. officinale, corroborating the results of behavioral bioassays. We conclude that studies on pre-alighting host selection behavior and the underlying physiological mechanisms of how organisms select host plants they exploit can aid in environmental safety testing of weed biological control agents.
Subject(s)
Boraginaceae , Weed Control , Boraginaceae/physiology , Smell , SeedsABSTRACT
Accidental introductions of biological weed control (BWC) agents (i) offer opportunities to assess host use of agents with a potentially broader fundamental host-range than those approved for field release directly in target areas; (ii) urge national authorities to rapidly respond as they may threaten native species or crops, and by this (iii) help advancing post-release studies, a neglected aspect of BWC. Through detailed insights gained from studying the recent accidental introduction of the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa into Europe, we derive suggestions for overcoming barriers to adoption of BWC by re-evaluating the predictive power of pre-release studies and, thus, the presently strict criteria for deciding upon their release that might exclude safe and efficient agents. By using the allergenic weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia and the accidentally introduced BWC agent O. communa as study system, we also hope to raise the awareness of authorities to consider biological control more prominently as a key approach for pest management in the 'One Health' concept, which aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, plants and ecosystems. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
Subject(s)
Biological Control Agents , Coleoptera , Humans , Animals , Ecosystem , Europe , Ambrosia , Crops, AgriculturalABSTRACT
Outcomes of weed biological control projects are highly variable, but a mechanistic understanding of how top-down and bottom-up factors influence the success of weed biological control is often lacking. We grew Rumex obtusifolius, the most prominent native weed in European grasslands, in the presence and absence of competition from the grass Lolium perenne and subjected it to herbivory through targeted inoculation with root-boring Pyropteron spp. To explore whether the interactive effects of competition and inundative biological control were size-dependent, R. obtusifolius was planted covering a large range of plant sizes found in managed grasslands. Overall, competition from the grass sward reduced aboveground biomass and final root mass of R. obtusifolius about 62- and 7.5-fold, respectively, and increased root decay of R. obtusifolius from 14 to 58%. Herbivory alone increased only root decay. However, grass competition significantly enhanced infestation by Pyropteron spp. and, as a consequence, enhanced the impact of herbivory on aboveground biomass and final root mass. The synergistic effect was so strong that R. obtusifolius plants grown from initially smaller roots did no longer develop. Inoculating R. obtusifolius with Pyropteron species in grasslands should be further pursued as a promising inundative biological control strategy in the weed's native range.
Subject(s)
Lolium , Rumex , Animals , Poaceae , Herbivory , Insecta , PlantsABSTRACT
Rumex obtusifolius is a problematic weed in temperate grasslands worldwide as it decreases yield and nutritional value of forage. Because the species can recruit from the seed bank, we determined the effect of management and soil properties on the soil seed bank of R. obtusifolius in intensively managed, permanent grasslands in Switzerland (CH), Slovenia (SI), and United Kingdom (UK). Following a paired case-control design, soil cores were taken from the topsoil of grassland with a high density of R. obtusifolius plants (cases) and from nearby parcels with very low R. obtusifolius density (controls). Data on grassland management, soil nutrients, pH, soil texture, and density of R. obtusifolius plants were also collected. Seeds in the soil were germinated under optimal conditions in a glasshouse. The number of germinated seeds of R. obtusifolius in case parcels was 866 ±152 m-2 (CH, mean ±SE), 628 ±183 m-2 (SI), and 752 ±183 m-2 (UK), with no significant difference among countries. Densities in individual case parcels ranged from 0 up to approximately 3000 seeds m-2 (each country). Control parcels had significantly fewer seeds, with a mean of 51 ±18, 75 ±52, and 98 ±52 seeds m-2 in CH, SI, and UK, respectively, and a range between 0 and up to 1000 seeds m-2. Across countries, variables explaining variation in the soil seed bank of R. obtusifolius in case parcels were soil pH (negative relation), silt content (negative), land-use intensity (negative), and aboveground R. obtusifolius plant density (positive). Because a large soil seed bank can sustain grassland infestation with R. obtusifolius, management strategies to control the species should target the reduction in the density of mature plants, prevention of the species' seed production and dispersal, as well as the regulation of the soil pH to a range optimal for forage production.
Subject(s)
Grassland , Rumex , Soil/chemistry , Seed Bank , Poaceae , Plants , Seeds/physiologyABSTRACT
Besides direct water abstraction, natural water scarcity in semi-arid and arid regions may be further exacerbated by human-assisted changes in vegetation composition, including the invasion by non-native plant species. Water abstraction by the invasive tree Prosopis juliflora and by the native Senegalia senegal was compared in the dry Great Rift Valley, Ethiopia. Transpiration rates were quantified using the heat ratio method on six trees each of P. julifora and S. senegal, growing adjacent to each other in the same environment. Water use for P. juliflora trees ranges from 1 to 26 L/day (an average of 4.74 ± 1.97), and that of S. senegal trees from 1 to 38 L/day (an average of 5.48 ± 5.29 during two study years). For both species, soil heat, latent heat, and soil moisture status influenced the rates of sap flow of trees; in addition, water use by P. juliflora trees was related to vapor pressure deficit; the higher the vapor pressure deficit, the higher the water abstraction by P. juliflora. Stand densities of pure P. juliflora and S. senegal were 1200-1600 trees and 400-600 trees per ha, respectively. At the stand scale, P. juliflora consumed approximately 6636 L/day/ha (transpiration: 242 mm per year) and S. senegal stands consumed 2723 L/day/ha (transpiration: 87 mm per year). That is, P. juliflora stands consumed three times more water than S. senegal stands, because of two reasons: (1) P. juliflora stands are denser than S. senegal stands, and denser stands consume more water than less dense stands, and (2) P. juliflora is evergreen and uses water all year-round, while S. senegal sheds its leaves during the peak dry seasons. Our findings suggest that, compared to S. senegal, P. juliflora invasion results in severe impacts on groundwater resources of the drylands of Ethiopia, with direct and indirect consequences to ecosystem services and rural livelihoods.
Subject(s)
Prosopis , Trees , Humans , Ecosystem , Ethiopia , Water , Senegal , Soil , Plant TranspirationABSTRACT
Woody species have been introduced in many parts of the world to provide economic benefits, but some of those species are now among the worst invaders, causing widespread economic and environmental damage. Management of woody species to restore original ecosystem services, such as biodiverse grassland that can provide fodder and sequester carbon, are needed to limit the impacts of alien species. However, the best management methods, i.e., the most economically efficient and effective way to remove trees and the most effective way to restore or rehabilitate the cleared land, are not developed for many species. In Eastern Africa, prosopis (Prosopis julifora) has invaded large areas of savanna and grassland, thereby affecting, among other things, fodder and water for livestock, access to dry season grazing lands and ultimately pastoral livelihoods. We tested three prosopis treatments (manual uprooting and cut stump and basal bark herbicide application) in combination with three incremental restoration interventions (divots, divots + mulching, divots + mulching + grass seed sowing). The three-year study was replicated in Ethiopia (Afar National Regional State), Kenya (Baringo county) and Tanzania (Moshi district). Prosopis survival and vegetation development, both diversity and biomass, were recorded. The prosopis treatments were all highly effective (between 85 and 100% tree mortality in almost all cases), but the two treatments that involved the complete removal of the aboveground biomass (manual and cut stump) yielded a more productive and more diverse vegetation than the treatment that killed the trees standing (basal bark). Compared to the effect of prosopis removal, the effect of restoration interventions on vegetation composition was small, indicating that most species re-established from the soil seed bank. The results show that it is possible to restore land previously invaded by prosopis. Despite the different rates of vegetation establishment and variation in species composition, the restoration interventions resulted in vegetation that in some cases contained a substantial fraction of perennial grasses. The method chosen to control prosopis depends on the availability of resources, including herbicides, and the need to remove rootstocks if the intention is to plant crops. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43170-023-00163-5.
ABSTRACT
The impacts of invasive alien plant species on native plants are generally well documented, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying their impacts on crop growth. A better understanding of immediate as well as legacy effects and of direct and indirect impacts of invasive alien plant species is essential for an improved management of invaded cropland. We investigated how Lantana camara impacts the growth of two subsistence crops (maize and cassava) through competition for resources, allelopathy and the indirect plant-plant interactions. We carried out two pot experiments using soils from invaded abandoned, invaded cultivated and non-invaded cultivated crop fields. In the first experiment maize and cassava were grown alone or together with L. camara and half of the pots were treated with activated carbon to suppress allelochemicals. The effect of the soil microbial community on L. camara-crop interactions was assessed in a second experiment using autoclaved soil with 5% of soil from the three soil types. We found that L. camara reduced the growth of maize by 29%, but cassava was not affected. We did not find evidence of allelopathic effects of L. camara. Inoculation of autoclaved soil with microorganisms from all soil types increased biomass of cassava and reduced the growth of maize. Because L. camara only caused impacts when growing simultaneously with maize, the results suggest that removal of L. camara will immediately mitigate its negative impacts on maize.
ABSTRACT
Studies on plant growth and trait variation along environmental gradients can provide important information for identifying drivers of plant invasions and for deriving management strategies. We used seeds of the annual plant invader Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed) collected from an agricultural site in Northern Italy (226 m. a.s.l; Mean Annual Air Temperature: 12.9 °C; precipitations: 930 mm) to determine variation in growth trajectories and plant traits when grown along a 1000-m altitudinal gradient in Northern Italy, and under different temperature conditions in the growth chamber (from 14/18 °C to 26/30 °C, night/day), using a non-liner modeling approach. Under field conditions, traits related to plant height (maximum height, stem height, number of internodes) followed a three-parameter logistic curve. In contrast, leaf traits (lateral spread, number of leaves, leaf length and width) followed non-monotonic double-Richards curves that captured the decline patterns evident in the data. Plants grew faster, reaching a higher maximum plant height, and produced more biomass when grown at intermediate elevations. Under laboratory conditions, plants exhibited the same general growth trajectory of field conditions. However, leaf width did not show the recession after the maximum value shown by plants grown in the field, although the growth trajectories of some individuals, particularly those grown at 18 °C, showed a decline at late times. In addition, the plants grown at lower temperatures exhibited the highest value of biomass and preserved reproductive performances (e.g., amount of male inflorescence, pollen weight). From our findings, common ragweed exhibits a high phenotypic plasticity of vegetative and reproductive traits in response to different altitudes and temperature conditions. Under climate warming, this plasticity may facilitate the shift of the species towards higher elevation, but also the in situ resistance and (pre)adaptation of populations currently abundant at low elevations in the invasive European range. Such results may be also relevant for projecting the species management such as the impact by possible biocontrol agents.
ABSTRACT
We evaluated the potential of the European root-feeding moth Dichrorampha aeratana as a biological control agent for the invasive weed Leucanthemum vulgare (oxeye daisy) in North America and Australia. The taxonomic proximity of the ornamental Shasta daisy (Leucanthemum × superbum) to L. vulgare and its popularity in North America made finding sufficiently host-specific biological control agents a challenge. No-choice tests conducted with 74 non-target species revealed partial or complete larval development on 11 species. In multiple-choice oviposition and larval development tests that were conducted in field cages, larvae were found on five of these, however in multiple-choice tests conducted under open-field conditions, larvae were only found on the ornamentals Shasta daisy and creeping daisy (Mauranthemum paludosum). Larval feeding by D. aeratana had no measurable impact on Shasta daisy, but larval feeding and plant competition reduced the biomass and number of flower heads of L. vulgare. We conclude that D. aeratana is a suitable biological control agent because it will not affect the ornamental value of Shasta or creeping daisies and because it is unlikely to feed on any other economically important or native species. We also expect D. aeratana to contribute to the suppression of L. vulgare populations.
ABSTRACT
Accurate taxonomic identification of alien species is crucial to detect new incursions, prevent or reduce the arrival of new invaders and implement management options such as biological control. Globally, the taxonomy of non-native Prosopis species is problematic due to misidentification and extensive hybridization. We performed a genetic analysis on several Prosopis species, and their putative hybrids, including both native and non-native populations, with a special focus on Prosopis invasions in Eastern Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania). We aimed to clarify the taxonomic placement of non-native populations and to infer the introduction histories of Prosopis in Eastern Africa. DNA sequencing data from nuclear and chloroplast markers showed high homology (almost 100 %) between most species analysed. Analyses based on seven nuclear microsatellites confirmed weak population genetic structure among Prosopis species. Hybrids and polyploid individuals were recorded in both native and non-native populations. Invasive genotypes of Prosopis juliflora in Kenya and Ethiopia could have a similar native Mexican origin, while Tanzanian genotypes likely are from a different source. Native Peruvian Prosopis pallida genotypes showed high similarity with non-invasive genotypes from Kenya. Levels of introduced genetic diversity, relative to native populations, suggest that multiple introductions of P. juliflora and P. pallida occurred in Eastern Africa. Polyploidy may explain the successful invasion of P. juliflora in Eastern Africa. The polyploid P. juliflora was highly differentiated from the rest of the (diploid) species within the genus. The lack of genetic differentiation between most diploid species in their native ranges supports the notion that hybridization between allopatric species may occur frequently when they are co-introduced into non-native areas. For regulatory purposes, we propose to treat diploid Prosopis taxa from the Americas as a single taxonomic unit in non-native ranges.
ABSTRACT
Dense impenetrable thickets of invasive trees and shrubs compete with other water users and thus disrupt ecosystem functioning and services. This study assessed water use by the evergreen Prosopis juliflora, one of the dominant invasive tree species in semi-arid and arid ecosystems in the tropical regions of Eastern Africa. The objectives of the study were to (1) analyze the seasonal water use patterns of P. juliflora in various locations in Afar Region, Ethiopia, (2) up-scale the water use from individual tree transpiration and stand evapotranspiration (ET) to the entire invaded area, and 3) estimate the monetary value of water lost due to the invasion. The sap flow rates of individual P. juliflora trees were measured using the heat ratio method while stand ET was quantified using the eddy covariance method. Transpiration by individual trees ranged from 1-36 L/day, with an average of 7 L of water per tree per day. The daily average transpiration of a Prosopis tree was about 3.4 (± 0.5) mm and the daily average ET of a dense Prosopis stand was about 3.7 (± 1.6) mm. Using a fractional cover map of P. juliflora (over an area of 1.18 million ha), water use of P. juliflora in Afar Region was estimated to be approximately 3.1-3.3 billion m3/yr. This volume of water would be sufficient to irrigate about 460,000 ha of cotton or 330,000 ha of sugar cane, the main crops in the area, which would generate an estimated net benefit of approximately US$ 320 million and US$ 470 million per growing season from cotton and sugarcane, respectively. Hence, P. juliflora invasion in the Afar Region has serious impacts on water availability and on the provision of other ecosystem services and ultimately on rural livelihoods.
ABSTRACT
Grassland degradation and the concomitant loss of soil organic carbon is widespread in tropical arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Afforestation of degraded grassland, sometimes by using invasive alien trees, has been put forward as a legitimate climate change mitigation strategy. However, even in cases where tree encroachment of degraded grasslands leads to increased soil organic carbon, it may come at a high cost since the restoration of grassland-characteristic biodiversity and ecosystem services will be blocked. We assessed how invasion by Prosopis juliflora and restoration of degraded grasslands in a semi-arid region in Baringo, Kenya affected soil organic carbon, biodiversity and fodder availability. Thirty years of grassland restoration replenished soil organic carbon to 1 m depth at a rate of 1.4% per year and restored herbaceous biomass to levels of pristine grasslands, while plant biodiversity remained low. Invasion of degraded grasslands by P. juliflora increased soil organic carbon primarily in the upper 30 cm and suppressed herbaceous vegetation. We argue that, in contrast to encroachment by invasive alien trees, restoration of grasslands in tropical semi-arid regions can both serve as a measure for climate change mitigation and help restore key ecosystem services important for pastoralists and agro-pastoralist communities.
ABSTRACT
There is insufficient information regarding the factors affecting the environmental impacts of alien species. In particular, little is known about whether there is any relationship between the invasiveness (establishment and spread) of an introduced species and its per capita impact. We experimentally assessed the relationship between the extent of spread of up to 29 alien plant species and their impact on recruitment of native tree species in Amani Botanical Garden, Tanzania. We also studied the effects of allelochemicals of selected alien on native plant species to assess potential mechanisms of impact. We found no relationship between the extent of spread of an alien tree species and their impact on seed germination, seedling survival, and seedling communities of native trees in their understory, and no indication that allelochemicals consistently explain their effects on recruitment of the studied species. These results suggest that extent of spread cannot be used as a proxy for impact. Hence, managers should continue assessing both the spread and the impact of alien species when prioritizing alien species for management.
ABSTRACT
Invasive alien species (IAS) can substantially affect ecosystem services and human well-being. However, quantitative assessments of their impact on human health are rare and the benefits of implementing IAS management likely to be underestimated. Here we report the effects of the allergenic plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia on public health in Europe and the potential impact of the accidentally introduced leaf beetle Ophraella communa on the number of patients and healthcare costs. We find that, prior to the establishment of O. communa, some 13.5 million persons suffered from Ambrosia-induced allergies in Europe, causing costs of Euro 7.4 billion annually. Our projections reveal that biological control of A. artemisiifolia will reduce the number of patients by approximately 2.3 million and the health costs by Euro 1.1 billion per year. Our conservative calculations indicate that the currently discussed economic costs of IAS underestimate the real costs and thus also the benefits from biological control.
Subject(s)
Biological Control Agents , Plant Weeds/growth & development , Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal , Weed Control/methods , Ambrosia , Animals , Coleoptera , Europe , Humans , Public Health/economics , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology , Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/prevention & controlSubject(s)
Entomology , Introduced Species , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Weed Control/methods , Animals , Insecta , Plant WeedsABSTRACT
While various aspects of classical biological control (CBC) of weeds, including non-target risk assessment, have been continuously improved in the past few decades, post-release monitoring remains neglected and underfunded. Detailed assessments of the population, community and ecosystem outcomes of CBC introductions, including reasons for success/failure and absence or evidence of non-target effects are generally lacking or fragmentary. Here we review recent advances in understanding the demography of biological control agents released into a novel environment, their impact on the target weed and on non-target species, and the consequences for the resident plant and animal communities and ecosystem functioning, including the restoration of ecosystem services. We argue that post-release monitoring of CBC programs offers unique but largely underutilized opportunities to improve our understanding of CBC outcomes and to inform management and decision-makers on when and how CBC should be integrated with other management options to enhance ecosystem restoration.
Subject(s)
Insecta , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Plant Weeds , Weed Control/methods , AnimalsABSTRACT
The ragweed borer, Epiblema strenuana (Walker, 1863), has a long history of use as a biological control agent against important weed pests in the family Asteraceae. Recently, E. strenuana has been reported feeding on the invasive perennials Ambrosia confertiflora and A. tenuifolia in Israel. The geographic location of Israel has raised concern over the possibility that the moth may spread to areas such as Ethiopia where the oil-seed crop Guizotia abyssinica is cultivated, as this is a potential host for E. strenuana. However, the taxonomic status of E. strenuana and a current synonym, E. minutana (Kearfott, 1905) is unclear. These taxa have been treated as separate species in the past, and they potentially have different feeding habits and damage different parts of the plant. We analyzed DNA data and adult morphology and determined that E. minutana, stat. rev., is a valid species which we raise from synonymy with E. strenuana. Wing coloration, the shape of the female sterigma, and COI DNA barcodes are consistently different between the two species. We also determined that the species previously identified as E. strenuana in Israel is actually E. minutana. While detailed host range tests have been conducted on the E. strenuana populations released in Australia and China, the host range of E. minutana remains to be clarified. We discuss the history of biological control using E. strenuana and the implications for finding E. minutana in Israel. We also provide species redescriptions for E. strenuana and E. minutana and illustrate diagnostic characters.
Subject(s)
Ambrosia , Lepidoptera , Moths , Animals , FemaleABSTRACT
Invasive alien plants reduce ecosystem service delivery, resulting in environmental, economic and social costs. Here we review the returns on investment from biological control of alien plants that invade natural ecosystems. Quantifying the economic benefits of biological control requires estimates of the reductions in ecosystem goods and services arising from invasion. It also requires post-release monitoring to assess whether biological control can restore them, and conversion of these estimates to monetary values, which has seldom been done. Past studies, mainly from Australia and South Africa, indicate that biological control delivers positive and substantial returns on investment, with benefit:cost ratios ranging from 8:1 to over 3000:1. Recent studies are rare, but they confirm that successful biological control delivers attractive returns on investment, which increase over time as the value of avoided impacts accumulates.
Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Introduced Species , Pest Control, Biological , Plant Weeds , Weed Control , Animals , Australia , Ecosystem , Insecta , Pest Control, Biological/economics , South Africa , Weed Control/economicsABSTRACT
Species distribution models can predict the suitable climatic range of a potential biological control agent (BCA), but they provide little information on the BCA's potential impact. To predict high population buildup, a prerequisite of biocontrol impact, studies are needed that assess the effect of environmental factors on vital rates of a BCA across the environmental gradient of the BCA's suitable habitats, especially for the region where the BCA is considered for field release. We extended a published species distribution model with climate-dependent vital rates of Ophraella communa, a recently and accidentally introduced potential BCA of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe. In field and laboratory experiments, we collected data on climate-dependent parameters assumed to be the most relevant for the population buildup of O. communa, i.e., temperature driving the number of generations per year and relative humidity (RH) determining egg hatching success. We found that O. communa concluded one generation in 334 cumulative degree days, and that egg hatching success strongly decreased from > 80% to < 20% when RH drops from 55% to 45% during the day. We used these values to spatially explicitly project population densities across the European range suitable for both A. artemisiifolia and the beetle and found that the present distribution of the beetle in Europe is within the range with the highest projected population growth. The highest population density of O. communa was predicted for northern Italy and parts of western Russia and western Georgia. Field observations of high impact on A. artemisiifolia with records of 80% aerial pollen reduction in the Milano area since the establishment of O. communa are in line with these predictions. The relative importance of temperature and RH on the population density of O. communa varies considerably across its suitable range in Europe. We propose that the combined statistical and mechanistic approach outlined in this paper helps to more accurately predict the potential impact of a weed BCA than a species distribution model alone. Identifying the factors limiting the population buildup of a BCA across the suitable range allows implementation of more targeted release and management strategies to optimize biocontrol efficacy.