Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region.

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.

Identifying socio-ecological networks in rural-urban gradients: Diagnosis of a changing cultural landscape.

Socio-ecological systems maintain reciprocal interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic structures. As a result of these interactions key essential services for society emerge. Urban expansion is a direct driver of land change and cause serious shifts in socio-ecological relationships and the associated lifestyles. The framework of rural-urban gradients has proved to be a powerful tool for ecological research about urban influences on ecosystems and on sociological issues related to social welfare. However, to date there has not been an attempt to achieve a classification of municipalities in rural-urban gradients based on socio-ecological interactions. In this paper, we developed a methodological approach that allows identifying and classifying a set of socio-ecological network configurations in the Region of Madrid, a highly dynamic cultural landscape considered one of the European hotspots in urban development. According to their socio-ecological links, the integrated model detects four groups of municipalities, ordered along a rural-urban gradient, characterized by their degree of biophysical and socioeconomic coupling and different indicators of landscape structure and social welfare. We propose the developed model as a useful tool to improve environmental management schemes and land planning from a socio-ecological perspective, especially in territories subject to intense urban transformations and loss of rurality.

Feelings of worthlessness during a single complicated major depressive episode predict postremission suicide attempt.

OBJECTIVE: To establish which symptoms of major depressive episode (MDE) predict postremission suicide attempts in complicated single-episode cases. METHOD: Using the nationally representative two-wave National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions data set, we identified wave 1 lifetime single-episode MDE cases in which the episode remitted by the beginning of the wave 2 three-year follow-up period (N = 2791). The analytic sample was further limited to 'complicated' cases (N = 1872) known to have elevated suicide attempt rates, defined as having two or more of the following: suicidal ideation, marked role impairment, feeling worthless, psychomotor retardation, and prolonged (>6 months) duration. RESULTS: Logistic regression analyses showed that, after controlling for wave 1 suicide attempt which significantly predicted postremission suicide attempt (OR = 10.0), the additional complicated symptom 'feelings of worthlessness' during the wave 1 index episode significantly and very substantially predicted postremission suicide attempt (OR = 6.96). Neither wave 1 psychomotor retardation nor wave 1 suicidal ideation nor any of the other wave 1 depressive symptoms were significant predictors of wave 2 suicide attempt. CONCLUSION: Among depressive symptoms during an MDE, feelings of worthlessness is the only significant indicator of elevated risk of suicide attempt after the episode has remitted, beyond previous suicide attempts.

Summer rainfall variability in European Mediterranean mountains from the sixteenth to the twentieth century reconstructed from tree rings.

Since the end of the last glacial period, European Mediterranean mountains have provided shelter for numerous species of Eurosiberian and Boreal origin. Many of these species, surviving at the southern limit of their range in Europe and surrounded by Mediterranean ones, are relatively intolerant to summer drought and are in grave danger of loss, as a result of increasingly long and frequent droughts in this region. This is the case of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and the Austrian pine (Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii) which are found on Central Iberian Peninsula at the edge of their natural range. We used a tree ring network of these two species to reconstruct past variations in summer rainfall. The reconstruction, based upon a tree ring composite chronology of the species, dates back to 1570 (adjusted R(2) = 0.49, P < 0.000001) and captures interannual to decadal scale variability in summer precipitation. We studied the spatial representativeness of the rainfall patterns and described the occurrence rate of extremes of this precipitation. To identify associations between macroclimatic factors and tree radial growth, we employed a principal component analysis to calculate the resultant of the relationship between the growth data of both species, using this resultant as a dependent variable of a multiple regression whose independent variables are monthly mean temperature and precipitation from the average records. Spatial correlation patterns between instrumental precipitation datasets for southern Europe and reconstructed values for the 1950-1992 period indicate that the reconstruction captures the regional signal of drought variability in the study region (the origin of this precipitation is convective: thermal low pressure zones induced in the inland northeastern areas of the Iberian Peninsula). There is a clear increase in the recurrence of extreme dry events as from the beginning of twentieth century and an abrupt change to drier conditions. There appears to be a tendency toward recurrent exceptionally dry summers, which could involve a significant change for the Eurosiberian refugee species.

Predictive validation of single-episode uncomplicated depression as a benign subtype of unipolar major depression.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive validity of a proposed benign major depressive disorder (MDD) subtype, single-episode 'uncomplicated MDD', defined as MDD that remits within 6 months and lacks severe impairment, psychotic ideation, suicidal ideation, psychomotor retardation, and feeling worthless. METHOD: Using two-wave National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions data, four groups differing in wave 1 lifetime MDD history (no history [n = 27 609]; single-episode uncomplicated [n = 418]; other single-episode [n = 1943]; multiple episode [n = 2473]) were evaluated for 3-year follow-up rates of major depressive episode (MDE), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and suicide attempt. RESULTS: Follow-up rates for no-MDD-history, single-episode uncomplicated MDD, other single-episode MDD, and multiple-episode MDD, respectively, were depressive episode 6.1%, 6.9%, 19.5%, 27.1%; GAD 2.7%, 4.3%, 7.8%, 11.2%; and suicide attempt 0.3%, 0.1%, 0.8%, 1.7%. For all validators, 3-year rates for single-episode uncomplicated cases were not significantly different from no-MDD-history rates, but significantly lower than both single- and multiple-episode other-MDD rates. Mild MDD, defined by having only five or six symptoms, did not yield similarly benign results; logistic regression showed 'uncomplicated' provides incremental validity over 'mild' in explaining validator rates. Validator differences were not explainable by treatment-rate differences. CONCLUSION: Single-episode uncomplicated MDD is a benign subtype lacking typical MDD negative sequelae. The planned DSM-5.1 revision should reinstitute an extended bereavement exclusion applied to all stressors.

Can the DSM's major depression bereavement exclusion be validly extended to other stressors? Evidence from the NCS.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the DSM's distinction between uncomplicated (normal) vs. complicated (disordered) bereavement-related depressive episodes can be validly extended to non-bereavement stressor-related depression (SRD). Previous findings supporting the uncomplicated/complicated SRD distinction's discriminant validity were criticized as tautological because of definitional biases (e.g., 'uncomplicated' requires brief duration, yet duration was a validator). We tested whether uncomplicated/complicated SRD validator differences are tautological or real. METHOD: Using National Comorbidity Survey data, we compared uncomplicated SRDs, complicated SRDs, and endogenous/psychotic MDD on levels of eight pathology validators. We identified definitional biases affecting six validators, and corrected them by deleting the biasing definitional components and recalculating validator levels. RESULTS: After correction of biases, uncomplicated SRDs had significantly lower pathology levels than both complicated SRDs and endogenous/psychotic MDD on seven of eight validators, disconfirming the tautology hypothesis. Regression analysis revealed that 'uncomplicated' cannot be equated with 'mild'. Extending the 'uncomplicated' durational threshold from 2 to 6 months yielded equal or stronger discriminant validity, suggesting the arbitrariness of the current durational criterion. CONCLUSION: Uncomplicated SRDs' lower pathology levels are because of real syndromal differences, not definitional tautologies. The uncomplicated/complicated distinction has discriminant validity when extended to non-bereavement SRDs as an indicator of normality vs. disorder.

Normal vs. disordered bereavement-related depression: are the differences real or tautological?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the DSM distinction between uncomplicated (normal) and complicated (disordered) bereavement-related depression (BRD) has discriminant validity on a range of pathology indicators. The DSM's major depression bereavement exclusion (BE) excludes BRDs from diagnosis when they are uncomplicated (defined by brief duration, non-severe impairment, and lack of certain pathosuggestive symptoms) but classifies all other ("complicated") BRDs as major depression. A previous report seemed to support the uncomplicated/complicated distinction's discriminant validity. However, those arguing for eliminating the BE from DSM-5 dismiss the findings as 'tautological,' attributing the validator differences to definitional biases (e.g. 'uncomplicated' requires 'no suicidal ideation,' yet 'lifetime suicide attempt' was a validator). This study empirically tests whether the uncomplicated/complicated differences are real or tautological. METHOD: Using National Comorbidity Survey data, confounds between definitional criteria for 'uncomplicated' and pathology validators were identified and corrected by deleting the biasing criteria and recalculating the corresponding validator's outcome. RESULTS: Six validators (interference with life, suicide attempt, melancholic depression, duration, hospitalization, and number of symptoms) were reanalyzed using unbiased definitions for 'uncomplicated.' All still yielded significantly lower pathology levels for uncomplicated BRDs, disconfirming the 'tautology' hypothesis. Regression analysis revealed that 'uncomplicated' offered incremental validity over severity alone in predicting pathology, so 'uncomplicated' cannot be equated with 'mild.' CONCLUSION: Uncomplicated BRDs' lower pathology validator levels are because of real syndromal differences, not definitional tautologies, supporting the BE's validity.

Relation between duration and severity in bereavement-related depression.

OBJECTIVE: Prolonged duration is commonly used as an indicator that bereavement-related depression (BRD) is pathological. DSM-IV replaced the traditional 1-year pathology cut-point by a 2-month cut-point. Yet, little evidence exists regarding the validity of these cut-points in indicating increased BRD severity. This study evaluated the validity of the 2-month and 1-year cut-points in differentiating less severe from more severe BRDs in a nationally representative U.S. sample. METHOD: National Comorbidity Survey respondents with BRD's (n = 152) lasting 0-8, 9-52 and >52 weeks were evaluated for depression severity using six severity indicators. Cut-point validity was established by discontinuities in severity levels between durations below and above the cut-point. RESULTS: Bereavement-related depressions of >52-week duration were significantly higher than 9- to 52-week BRDs on four of six severity indicators and on a cumulative overall severity measure of mean number of severity indicators per person, whereas ≤8-week and 9- to 52-week durational categories differed on one severity indicator and not on overall severity. Additional analyses using durations 0-12, 13-26, 27-52 and >52 weeks suggested that alternative <52-week cut-points also lack validity. CONCLUSION: The traditional 1-year cut-point validly identifies increasing BRD severity; DSM's 2-month cut-point does not. Duration does not indicate increasing BRD severity before 1 year. Research using the 2-month cut-point may yield misleading results.

Comparisons of marriage and family therapists, psychologists, psychiatrists, and social workers on job-related measures and reactions to managed care in Iowa.

This study compares marriage and family therapists (MFTs) to psychologists, psychiatrists, and social workers on job-related measures, such as job autonomy, job satisfaction, burnout, and intention to stay in their present position, as well as on reactions to a managed care initiative in the state of Iowa. Findings indicate that MFTs scored significantly lower than other practitioners on job autonomy and intention to stay in their present position, but there were no differences in job satisfaction or burnout. Marital and family therapists also reported less dissatisfaction with the managed care initiative than psychiatrists, although virtually all practitioners were dissatisfied with the managed-care program. These findings indicate some dissatisfaction within the MFT profession and may be relevant to practitioners seeking to change or expand their practice, as well as to the needs of MFTs in their training programs.

The vicissitudes of measurement: a confirmatory factor analysis of the Emotional Autonomy Scale.

This study examined the factor structure of the Emotional Autonomy Scale (EAS) as proposed by Steinberg and Silverberg. Participants were from three independent samples of adolescents in grades 6 (n = 1,842), 8 (n = 1,769), and 10 (n = 1,232), with each sample consisting of three ethnic groups: African American, European American, and Mexican American. None of the confirmatory factor analyses for these samples supported the factor structure proposed by Steinberg and Silverberg. From the three models tested, the EAS is best described by the four originally proposed factors, combined with two method factors, one consisting of the positively worded scale items and one consisting of the negatively worded scale items. Results show that the EAS exhibits poor construct validity and behaves quite differently for the different grade and ethnic groups. The strong impact of method variance on the factor structure is discussed. Although various alternative solutions to the psychometric problems in the EAS are proposed, the most credible solution may be to reexamine the conceptual foundations of emotional autonomy and develop better measures of those concepts for adolescents.

Methodological development of an index of coastal water quality: application in a tourist area.

With the aim of obtaining an index of coastal water quality, a methodological procedure based on numerical classification and discriminant analysis is presented. The procedure was applied to nutrient data (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate) analyzed along the coastal waters of a Spanish tourist area. Using numerical classification, three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and potentially eutrophic waters. Discriminant analysis was shown to be an effective methodological tool in the discrimination between trophic groups. For every group, the discriminant procedure generated the centroids. The centroids representing oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic conditions were used to establish the two extremes of the continuum of mesotrophic conditions in these coastal waters: Standardizing values from -1 to 1, the centroids for oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic waters yielded an interval that defined the range of mesotrophic conditions. This interval is proposed as a water quality index. The ability of the coastal water quality index to successfully predict mesotrophic conditions was proved with random samples.

Southern California Edison's performance standards: an employer's key to quality care delivery.

One of the most significant lessons learned from this process is that setting objectives with performance standards is the key to continuous quality improvement. The critical differences between health administration and health management are threefold: (1) performance standards are developed with clarity, (2) care delivery is monitored and measured against these standards, and (3) improvements are made based on information from these measurements.

Worker Training in Job Safety and Health: how do we know it Works?

Two methods of occupational disease and injury prevention specifically required by Federal law are education and training of workers in job safety and health. Basic assumptions underlying these strategies are that they will increase safe behavior thereby reducing health risk. However, questions continue to arise regarding the effect of ongoing training as a preventive measure and, therefore, about the practical usefulness of these assumptions. The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which evaluations of ongoing training programs can provide information to test the basic assumptions. A self-administered mail survey concerning the evaluation practices of occupational health professionals responsible for the evaluation of health and safety training programs was conducted. Results suggest that for many evaluations the information collected is inappropriate for the uses to which it is put. Furthermore, the results also suggest that measurement validity is a problem. Thus, in effect, we have no way of knowing whether or not the majority of training programs are effective.