Effectiveness of residential versus outpatient therapy for smoking cessation: The START randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tobacco smoking represents a major cause for preventable death and morbidity. Results from non-randomized studies suggest that smoking cessation therapy in a residential setting might be a new viable way to facilitate smoking abstinence. We aimed to test the effects of residential multicomponent group therapy for smoking cessation compared with outpatient group therapy. DESIGN: Prospective parallel-group open-label randomized superiority trial, with assessments at baseline, 6 and 12 months. SETTING: Recruitment throughout Germany via media advertisements. PARTICIPANTS: Adult smokers (≥10 cigarettes/day) randomly assigned to residential (n = 157) or outpatient (n = 158) therapy. 51.8% female; mean age 53.2 years; mean years of smoking 34.4. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Residential 9-day smoking cessation group therapy comprising six daily therapy sessions and supportive interventions for cessation and daily structure embedded in the routines of a somatic rehabilitation center, compared with weekly outpatient smoking cessation group therapy (3-7 weeks) provided in routine care courses close to the participants' places of residence, both including at least 9 h of behavioral therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Co-primary outcomes were self-reported continuous 6- and 12-month abstinence (hierarchically ordered). Primary analyses were conducted in the therapy-uptake population including participants who started therapy with sensitivity analyses in the intention-to-treat population of all randomized participants. FINDINGS: Intervention uptake rates were 87.3% (n = 137) in the residential and 60.1% (n = 95) in the outpatient group. In the therapy-uptake population, abstinence rates were 46.7% in the residential versus 26.3% in the outpatient group at 6 months (odds ratio [OR] = 2.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.39-4.33, P = 0.0019) and 39.4% versus 24.2% at 12 months (OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.14-3.64, P = 0.017). Biochemically validated abstinence rates at 12 months were 33.1% in the residential versus 17.4% in the outpatient group (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.22-4.51, P = 0.011). In the intention-to-treat population, self-reported and biochemically validated abstinence rates at 12 months were 34.4% in the residential versus 14.6% in the outpatient group (OR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.77-5.34, P < 0.0001) and 28.6% versus 10.3% (OR = 3.48, 95% CI = 1.85-6.52, P = 0.0001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Residential therapy exclusively for smoking cessation is feasible and effective and could be a beneficial new treatment for smokers.

Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY): summary of findings and assessment of existing guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key features and conclusions from the various SAVVY papers. METHODS: Summarizing several papers reporting theoretical investigations using simulations and an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, biases from ignoring varying follow-up times or CEs are investigated. The bias of commonly used estimators of the absolute (incidence proportion and one minus Kaplan-Meier) and relative (risk and hazard ratio) AE risk is quantified. Furthermore, we provide a cursory assessment of how pertinent guidelines for the analysis of safety data deal with the features of varying follow-up time and CEs. RESULTS: SAVVY finds that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. Whenever varying follow-up times and/or CEs are present in the assessment of AEs, SAVVY recommends using the Aalen-Johansen estimator (AJE) with an appropriate definition of CEs to quantify AE risk. There is an urgent need to improve pertinent clinical trial reporting guidelines for reporting AEs so that incidence proportions or one minus Kaplan-Meier estimators are finally replaced by the AJE with appropriate definition of CEs.

Long term results of a prospective multicenter observational study on the use of anti-human T-lymphocyte immunoglobulin (ATLG) in unrelated donor transplantation (ATOS study).

ATOS is a prospective observational study evaluating the outcome of patients receiving anti-human T-lymphocyte immunoglobulin (ATLG) in unrelated donor transplantation. Primary endpoint was severe GvHD and relapse-free survival (SGRFS). GvHD prophylaxis consisted of ATLG and CSA/ MTX or MMF. Outcome was compared to the ATLG arm of our prospective randomized phase III multicenter trial trial (RCT) [1, 2]. 165 patients, median age 54 (18; 77) years, with haematological malignancies with early (45.5%), intermediate (17.6%), and advanced (37.0%) disease were included. ATLG dose differed between centers according to local practise (median total ATLG dose of 46 (IQR 32-60, range 15-91) mg/kg). Median follow-up was 70 months. Estimated probabilities at 5 years follow up were for SGRFS 0.27, OS 0.52, DFS 0.43, NRM 0.23, relapse 0.34, acute GvhD °III/IV 0.13, severe chronic GvHD 0.27. OS rates differed dependent on disease status. An effect of the given ATLG dose could not be separated from potential center effects. Despite higher age and more advanced disease in ATOS, outcome was similar to the ATLG arm of our RCT. This long-term, multicenter, experience in routine clinical practice confirms the GvHD-protective effect of ATLG without compromising relapse and non-relapse mortality rates.Clinical Trial Registry: German clinical trials register DRKS00004581.

How do SGLT2 inhibitors protect the kidney? A mediation analysis of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial.

INTRODUCTION: Mechanisms underlying kidney benefits with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibition in heart failure and/or type 2 diabetes (T2D) with established cardiovascular disease are currently unclear. METHODS: We evaluated post hoc the factors mediating the effect of empagliflozin on a composite kidney outcome (first sustained estimate glomerular filtration rate ≥40% reduction from baseline, initiation of renal replacement therapy, or death due to kidney disease) in EMPA-REG OUTCOME. Variables, calculated as change from baseline or updated mean, were evaluated as time-dependent covariates and using a landmark approach (at Week 12) in Cox regression analyses. In multivariable analyses, variables with the greatest mediating effect were added using a step-up procedure. RESULTS: In univariable time-dependent updated mean covariate analyses, the strongest mediator was hematocrit (99.5% mediation). Hemoglobin, uric acid, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio mediated 79.4%, 33.2%, and 31.0%, respectively. Multivariable analyses were not performed due to the very strong mediation effect of hematocrit. In univariable Week 12 landmark change from baseline analyses, the strongest mediators included hematocrit (40.7%), glycated hemoglobin (28.3%), systolic blood pressure (16.8%), and free fatty acids (16.5%), which yielded a combined mediation of 78.9% in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in hematocrit and hemoglobin were the strongest mediators of empagliflozin's kidney benefits in EMPA-REG OUTCOME participants with T2D and cardiovascular disease.

Characteristics, Treatment Patterns and Survival of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stage IV Epithelial Ovarian Cancer-A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to describe an unselected population of patients with diagnosis of FIGO stage IV OC. METHODS: Data from 1183 patients were available for analysis. RESULTS: The majority of patients (962/1183, 81.3%) received cancer-directed treatment. The median follow-up time was 3.8 years, and the median overall survival duration was 1.9 years. Notably, patients >80 years had a low overall survival rate (HR of age >80 years vs. ≤50 years was 3.81, 95%-CI [2.76, 5.27], p < 0.0001). The survival rate was best in patients with HGSOC (p < 0.0001). The highest overall survival rate was observed in patients in the group with surgical intervention followed by systemic treatment, with an unadjusted HR of 0.72, 95%-CI [0.59, 0.86], p = 0.007 vs. systemic treatment only. After adjustment for age and histology, survival differences between treatment schemes were smaller (HR 0.81, 95%-CI [0.66, 1.00], p = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with FIGO stage IV OC, more than 80% of the patients received cancer-directed treatment. Age and high-grade serous histology were determinants for survival. The highest overall survival rate was observed in patients who underwent surgery followed by systemic treatment.

Potential for reducing immobility times of a mobility monitor in-bed sensor system - a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Pressure ulcer prophylaxis is a central topic in clinical care. Pressure-relieving repositioning is strongly recommended for all pressure-sensitive patients. The Mobility Monitor (MoMo) is a technical device that records a patient's movements and transmits the data to a monitor. This study investigated the extent to which the MoMo sensor system, which records and visualises patients' movements in bed, supports nurses in performing pressure-relieving repositioning in neurological and neurosurgical intensive care units (ICU). METHODS: This stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial involved two clusters: one neurological and one neurosurgical ICU. The study was carried out in two steps over three periods between November 2018 and May 2019, with a two-month interval between each step. At the beginning of the study, we equipped 33 beds across the two ICUs with a MoMo system. Our primary endpoint was the immobility rate, which is defined as the patient's inactive time in bed exceeding two hours without pressure-relieving movements divided by the time the MoMo was in the bed. The immobility rate ranges from 0 to below 1, with higher values indicating lower mobility. Secondary endpoints were the rate of new pressure ulcers and the rate of relevant pressure-relieving repositionings. Relevant repositionings are defined as the number of repositionings identified by the MoMo as a pressure-relieving repositioning divided by the total number of repositionings, RESULTS: 808 patients were included in the study, of whom 403 were in the control group and 405 were in the intervention group. The mean immobility rate was 0.171 during the control phase and 0.144 during the intervention phase. The estimated intervention effect was -0.0018 (95% confidence interval [-0.0471, 0.0436], p=0.94). The number of new pressure ulcers was 5/405 in the intervention phase and 15/403 in the control phase. We noted a small difference in the mean rate of relevant repositioningswith an estimated intervention effect of 0.046 (95% confidence interval [-0.018, 0.110], p=0.16). CONCLUSION: Our results are insufficient to recommend the standardised use of mobility monitors in neurological or neurosurgical ICUs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The primary analysis was prespecified and the trial was registered in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) under the reference number DRKS00015492 (31/10/2018).

Long-term decitabine/retinoic acid maintenance treatment in an elderly sAML patient with high-risk genetics.

Elderly patients with AML ineligible for induction have a dismal prognosis; hence disease stabilization is a primary treatment goal. This case of a 75-year-old patient with secondary AML receiving the combination of decitabine and ATRA (within the DECIDER trial, NCT00867672) demonstrates an above-average survival. The therapy administered over 52 cycles led to complete molecular and hematological remission and resulted in 5.3 years overall survival. Clonal evolution of the leukemic clone could be demonstrated using DNA sequencing methods. According to the literature, this case constitutes the longest continued HMA exposure in an elderly AML patient ineligible for standard chemotherapy.

Assessment of postoperative pain, dysesthesia, and weather sensitivity after pterional and temporal neurosurgical approaches.

OBJECTIVE: Many neurosurgical approaches require incision of the temporal muscle (TM). Consequently, patients often report reduced opening of the mouth, facial asymmetry, numbness, and pain after lateral craniotomies. A systematic assessment of these postoperative subjective complaints is lacking in the literature. Therefore, in this study, the authors evaluate subjective complaints after pterional, frontolateral-extended pterional, or temporal craniotomy using a 6-item questionnaire. They examine the association of these subjective complaints with the extent of the mobilization of the TM. METHODS: The questionnaire assessed complaints about limited opening of the mouth, pain in the mastication muscles, facial asymmetry, sensory deficits in the temporal region, weather sensitivity, and headache. Eligible patients with benign intracranial processes operated on using lateral cranial approaches between 2016 and 2019 were included. The questionnaire was answered before surgery (baseline) and 3 and 15 months after surgery. Surgeons documented the extent of TM incision. RESULTS: Among the 55 patients in this study, all complaints apart from headache showed an increase at a statistically significant rate at 3 months postoperatively, that is, limited mouth opening (p < 0.0001), pain in the mastication muscles (p < 0.0001), an impression of asymmetry in the mastication muscles (p = 0.0002), sensory disturbances in the temporal region (p < 0.0001), and weather sensitivity (p < 0.001). Only pain in the mastication muscles showed a relevant decrease at 15 months postsurgery (p = 0.058). The extent of the mobilized TM was associated with pain in the mastication muscles at 3 months (p = 0.0193). CONCLUSIONS: Subjective complaints in patients following lateral craniotomy can be detected. As the extent of the mobilized TM relevantly influenced pain in the mastication muscles, the authors conclude that one should sparsely mobilize the TM. Furthermore, a neurosurgeon should be aware and warn the patient of subjective postoperative complaints and inform the patient about their natural course.

Cancer-associated Macrophage-like Cells in Patients with Non-metastatic Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagus - Cytomorphological Heterogeneity.

Introduction: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) often recurs systemically despite therapy with a curative aim. New diagnostic and therapeutic approaches are urgently needed. A promising field is liquid biopsy, meaning the investigation of tumor-associated cells in the peripheral blood, for example cancer-associated macrophage-like cells (CAML). The aim of this multicentric study was to investigate the presence and cytomorphological appearance of CAML in patients with non-metastatic and operable esophageal cancer. Methods: Blood samples from 252 patients with locally advanced EAC were obtained before starting curative treatment including surgery, and then processed using ScreenCell® filtration devices. Cytological analysis was performed via May-Grünwald-Giemsa staining. CAML were defined by their morphological characteristics. We also performed immunofluorescence staining with the mesenchymal marker vimentin on a subset of our study cohort. Results: We detected cytomorphologically heterogeneous CAML in 31.8% (n=80) patients. Their presence and cell count did not correlate significantly with pretherapeutic cTNM. Even in patients with small tumors and no lymph-node infiltration, cell counts were high. CAML showed heterogenous staining patterns for vimentin. Conclusion: This is one of the first studies demonstrating the presence and phenotype of CAML in a uniquely broad cohort of EAC patients. As they are believed to be representatives of the inflammatory tumor microenvironment shed into the bloodstream, their presence in non-metastatic EAC is a promising finding.

Encouragement of patients' self-management in primary care for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (DECADE): protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular diseases are the most common cause of death in Germany and among the most frequent reasons for encounters in primary care. Most patients with cardiovascular risks (CVRs) have difficulties implementing health-promoting behavioural changes. In this study, a complex intervention containing evidence-based patient materials and structured follow-up consultations are intended to strengthen patients' self-management to improve health behaviour. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this cluster randomised controlled trial, we investigate the effects of the intervention "Decision aid, action planning and follow-up support for patients to reduce the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases" (DECADE) using a 2×2 design. All patients, including the control group (CG), receive a CVR calculation. Three intervention groups (IGs) receive one or both of two different components of the DECADE intervention: IG1 (patient materials), IG2 (follow-up consultations) and IG3 (patient materials and follow-up consultations). The study was planned to be conducted with 77 general practitioners in 3 German regions and a target sample size of 924 patients. The observation period for each patient amounts to 12 months with three patient surveys: baseline (t0), after 6 and 12 months (t1 and t2). The primary outcome is patient activation (Patient Activation Measure 13 (PAM13-D)) at t1. Secondary outcomes include PAM13-D at t2 and further patient-reported and clinical outcomes at t1 and t2. We will also analyse the cost-effectiveness of the intervention, the degree of usage and satisfaction with the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was first approved by the lead ethics committee of the University of Freiburg on 15 April 2021 (vote number: 21-1078) and subsequently by the other ethics committees in the study regions (Ethics committee of medical association Baden-Württemberg (B-F-2021-078), Ethics Committee of the Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden (BO-EK-251052021), Ethics Committee of the State Chamber of Physicians of Saxony (EK-BR-92/21-1), Ethics Committee of the Hamburg Medical Association (2021-200013-BO-bet)). Informed consent is required for patients to participate in the study. The results of this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at congresses by the DECADE team. The DECADE lead management will communicate the results to the funder of this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS00025401 (registration date: 21 June 2021); International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, DRKS00025401.

Thiotepa-fludarabine-treosulfan conditioning for 2nd allogeneic HCT from an alternative unrelated donor for patients with AML: a prospective multicenter phase II trial.

Therapeutic options for patients with AML relapsing after allogeneic HCT range from chemotherapy or hypomethylating agents with or without donor lymphocyte infusions to a 2nd allogeneic HCT. Available data are based on retrospective single center or registry studies. The aim of this multicenter trial was to investigate prospectively intensive conditioning with Thiotepa, Fludarabine and Treosulfan (TFT) for 2nd allogeneic HCT from an alternative unrelated donor in patients with AML relapse > 6 months after a 1st allogeneic HCT. Primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS) at one year after 2nd HCT. 50 patients median age 53.5 years, in CR/PR (34%) or active relapse (66%) were included. 33 of 38 patients (86.8%) with available data achieved CR 100 days post transplant. 23 patients were alive and free of relapse at primary endpoint one year after 2nd HCT (DFS rate 0.46, 95%-CI (0.32-0.61). Three-year rates of DFS, relapse, non-relapse mortality, and overall survival were 0.24, 95%-CI (0.13-0.36); 0.36 (0.25-0.52); 0.40 (0.29-0.57); and 0.24 (0.13-0.37). Second HCT with TFT conditioning is feasible and has high anti-leukemic efficacy in chemosensitive or refractory AML relapse after prior allogeneic HCT. Still, relapse rates and NRM after 2nd allogeneic HCT remain a challenge. The trial is registered in the German Clinical Trials Registry (number DRKS00005126).

Prospective multicenter study of the breakable babystent for treatment of aortic coarctation in newborns and infants.

To assess the efficacy and safety of a breakable BabyStent to treat complex aortic coarctation (CoA) in early childhood. Although recommended in several guidelines, there is no approved aortic stent for young infants, because of the dilemma between two mandatory requirements: expandable up to adult size on the one hand, and small enough to fit through a baby's femoral artery on the other. Prospective interventional, multi-center clinical trial with the breakable Osypka BabyStent® (OBS). The OBS is a low-profile, 15-mm long cobalt-chromium stent, pre-mounted on a 6 mm balloon and inserted via a 4 Fr sheath. After implantation, its diameter is adjustable from 6 to 12 mm by balloon dilation. Further dilation opens predefined joints enabling unrestricted growth. Nineteen patients (9 male), median age 112 days (range: 7-539), median body weight 5.6 kg (range: 2.4-8.4) were deemed high risk and underwent stent implantation. Of those, 74% suffered from re-CoA following surgery, 53% had additional cardiac and 21% noncardiac malformations. Our primary combined endpoint was fulfilled: All stents were implanted in the desired region, and a >50% intrastenotic diameter-extension was achieved in 15 patients (78.9%, 80% confidence interval [62.2; 90.5], 95% confidence interval [54.4; 93.9]). Secondary endpoint confirmed that the OBS fits the baby's femoral vessel diameter. All children survived the procedure and 12-month follow-up. This stent enables percutaneous stenting of complex aortic coarctation to treat high-risk newborns and infants.

Feasibility of an Updated Randomised Controlled Trial on Surgical Urolithiasis Treatments: The Pilot Trial for the German Endoscopic versus Shock Wave Therapy Study (GESS).

Data comparing treatments for urolithiasis are often outdated, with inconsistent results or poor methodological and reporting quality. We report a pilot study in preparation for a larger multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing shockwave therapy and ureteroscopy in patients with a single urinary stone of ≤20 mm in the upper urinary tract. Primary objectives included screening completeness, patients' willingness to participate, their remaining in the study, the suitability of the eligibility criteria, and the acceptability of the outcome measures. Screened individuals not invited to participate were those with no indication for active treatment among referred patients (n = 166), those who staff failed to screen (n = 99), and patients not meeting the inclusion criterion of a single stone (n = 422). Of the 176 patients invited, 116 refused to participate. Ultimately, we were able to recruit 60 patients within 34 mo. All patients underwent their allocated treatments. This pilot trial provides an in-depth analysis of the feasibility of an RCT on surgical treatments for upper urinary tract urolithiasis in a highly regulated health care system. The study procedures and outcome measures proved acceptable and feasible. On the basis of these data, we propose a pragmatic, multicentre RCT to deliver updated, high-level evidence on the efficacy of currently available treatments for urolithiasis. PATIENT SUMMARY: We performed a small pilot trial comparing current treatments in urolithiasis. We were able to prove the feasibility of a larger multi-institutional trial with regard to the time needed to recruit an adequate number of patients and the acceptability of the treatments and outcome measures.

Design aspects of COVID-19 treatment trials: Improving probability and time of favorable events.

As a reaction to the pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a multitude of clinical trials for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 or the resulting corona disease 2019 (COVID-19) are globally at various stages from planning to completion. Although some attempts were made to standardize study designs, this was hindered by the ferocity of the pandemic and the need to set up clinical trials quickly. We take the view that a successful treatment of COVID-19 patients (i) increases the probability of a recovery or improvement within a certain time interval, say 28 days; (ii) aims to expedite favorable events within this time frame; and (iii) does not increase mortality over this time period. On this background, we discuss the choice of endpoint and its analysis. Furthermore, we consider consequences of this choice for other design aspects including sample size and power and provide some guidance on the application of adaptive designs in this particular context.

Mastication after craniotomy: pilot assessment of postoperative oral health-related quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Neurosurgical approaches to the brain often require the mobilization of the temporal muscle. Many patients complain of postoperative pain, atrophy, reduced mouth opening, and masticatory problems. Although the pterional, frontolateral-extended-pterional, and temporal craniotomies are the most frequently used approaches in neurosurgery, a systematic assessment of the postoperative oral health-related quality of life has never been performed so far. This study evaluates the oral health-related quality of life of patients after pterional, frontolateral-extended-pterional, or temporal craniotomy using a validated and standardized dental questionnaire, compares the results with the normal values of the general population, and investigates whether this questionnaire is sensitive to changes caused by surgical manipulation of the temporal muscle. METHODS: The "Oral Health Impact Profile" (OHIP14) is a validated questionnaire to assess the oral health-related quality of life. It asks the patients to assess their oral health situation within the past 7 days in 14 questions. Possible answers range from 0 (never) to 4 (very often). Sixty patients with benign intracranial processes operated through a lateral cranial approach were included. The questionnaire was answered before surgery (baseline) and 3 months and 15 months after surgery. RESULTS: Overall, postoperative OHIP scores increase significantly after 3 months and decrease after 15 months, but not to preoperative values. No factors can be identified which show a considerable relationship with the postoperative OHIP score. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative impairment of mouth opening and pain during mastication can be observed 3 to 15 months after surgery and sometimes cause feedback from patients and their dentists. However, in line with existing literature, these complaints decrease with time. The study shows that the OHIP questionnaire is sensitive to changes caused by surgical manipulation of the temporal muscle and can therefore be used to investigate the influence of surgical techniques on postoperative complaints. Postoperatively, patients show worse OHIP scores than the general population, demonstrating that neurosurgical cranial approaches negatively influence the patient's oral health-related wellbeing. Larger studies using the OHIP questionnaire should evaluate if postoperative physical therapy, speech therapy, or specialized rehabilitation devices can improve the masticatory impairment after craniotomy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical trial register: DRKS00011096.

Mediators of the improvement in heart failure outcomes with empagliflozin in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial.

AIMS: In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial, empagliflozin reduced risk of death from heart failure (HF) or hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and established cardiovascular (CV) disease. We evaluated post hoc the degree to which covariates mediated the effects of empagliflozin on HHF or HF death. METHODS AND RESULTS: A mediator had to fulfil the following criteria: (i) affected by active treatment, (ii) associated with the outcome, and finally (iii) adjustment for it results in a reduced treatment effect compared with unadjusted analysis. Potential mediators were calculated as change from baseline or updated mean and evaluated in univariable analyses as time-dependent covariates in Cox regression of time to HHF or HF death; those with the largest mediating effects were then included in a multivariable analysis. Increases in heart rate, log urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), waist circumference, and uric acid were associated with increased risk of HHF or HF death; increases in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, haematocrit, haemoglobin, and albumin were associated with reduced risk of HHF or HF death. In univariable analyses, change from baseline in haematocrit, haemoglobin, albumin, uric acid, and logUACR mediated 51%, 54%, 23%, 24%, and 27% of the risk reduction with empagliflozin versus placebo, respectively. Multivariable analysis including haemoglobin, logUACR, and uric acid mediated 85% of risk reduction with similar results when updated means were evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in haematocrit and haemoglobin were the most important mediators of the reduction in HHF and death from HF in patients with T2DM and established CV disease treated with empagliflozin. Albumin, uric acid, and logUACR had smaller mediating effects in this population.

Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY)-estimation of adverse event risks.

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs), whether prespecified or emerging, in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). Although statistical methodologies have advanced, in AE analyses, often the incidence proportion, the incidence density, or a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator are used, which ignore either censoring or CEs. In an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, these potential sources of bias are investigated. The main purpose is to compare the estimators that are typically used to quantify AE risk within trial arms to the non-parametric Aalen-Johansen estimator as the gold-standard for estimating cumulative AE probabilities. A follow-up paper will consider consequences when comparing safety between treatment groups. METHODS: Estimators are compared with descriptive statistics, graphical displays, and a more formal assessment using a random effects meta-analysis. The influence of different factors on the size of deviations from the gold-standard is investigated in a meta-regression. Comparisons are conducted at the maximum follow-up time and at earlier evaluation times. CEs definition does not only include death before AE but also end of follow-up for AEs due to events related to the disease course or safety of the treatment. RESULTS: Ten sponsor organizations provided 17 clinical trials including 186 types of investigated AEs. The one minus Kaplan-Meier estimator was on average about 1.2-fold larger than the Aalen-Johansen estimator and the probability transform of the incidence density ignoring CEs was even 2-fold larger. The average bias using the incidence proportion was less than 5%. Assuming constant hazards using incidence densities was hardly an issue provided that CEs were accounted for. The meta-regression showed that the bias depended mainly on the amount of censoring and on the amount of CEs. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. We recommend using the Aalen-Johansen estimator with an appropriate definition of CEs whenever the risk for AEs is to be quantified and to change the guidelines accordingly.

Estimating and comparing adverse event probabilities in the presence of varying follow-up times and competing events.

Safety analyses of adverse events (AEs) are important in assessing benefit-risk of therapies but are often rather simplistic compared to efficacy analyses. AE probabilities are typically estimated by incidence proportions, sometimes incidence densities or Kaplan-Meier estimation are proposed. These analyses either do not account for censoring, rely on a too restrictive parametric model, or ignore competing events. With the non-parametric Aalen-Johansen estimator as the "gold standard", that is, reference estimator, potential sources of bias are investigated in an example from oncology and in simulations, for both one-sample and two-sample scenarios. The Aalen-Johansen estimator serves as a reference, because it is the proper non-parametric generalization of the Kaplan-Meier estimator to multiple outcomes. Because of potential large variances at the end of follow-up, comparisons also consider further quantiles of the observed times. To date, consequences for safety comparisons have hardly been investigated, the impact of using different estimators for group comparisons being unclear. For example, the ratio of two both underestimating or overestimating estimators may not be comparable to the ratio of the reference, and our investigation also considers the ratio of AE probabilities. We find that ignoring competing events is more of a problem than falsely assuming constant hazards by the use of the incidence density and that the choice of the AE probability estimator is crucial for group comparisons.