Adherence to Healthy and Sustainable Dietary Patterns and Long-Term Chronic Inflammation: Data from the EPIC-Potsdam Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: We explored the prospective associations between adherence to a priori chosen dietary patterns, including EAT-Lancet (EAT-L) and Mediterranean (tMDS) diet with long-term inflammatory responses in a German population sample. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A subsample of 636 predominantly healthy participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study who were on average 51-years old at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: Data was collected repeatedly between 1994/1998 - 2013. At baseline (1994/1998) and 6.8-years later (2001/2005), EAT-L and tMDS scores were derived from available food frequency questionnaires. Stable high, stable low, increasing, and decreasing adherence to EAT-L and tMDS were defined as scoring above/below baseline median at baseline and 6.8-years later. Long-term chronic inflammation was assessed based on the average values of repeated measurements of two inflammatory biomarkers - chemerin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) - in plasma samples collected between 2010/2012 and 2013. Multivariable linear regression analysis adjusted for socio-demographic and lifestyle factors at baseline and in 2010/2012 was used to assess the association between diet adherence and long-term hs-CRP and chemerin concentrations. RESULTS: Stable high or increasing adherence to EAT-L diet compared to stable low adherence was associated with slight reduction of long-term chemerin concentrations on the long run (stable high: -4.4%; increasing: -4.0%), not reaching statistical significance. Increasing adherence to tMDS compared to stable low adherence was also associated with a minor reduction in chemerin concentrations (-3.6%). Decreasing adherence to tMDS compared stable high adherence was associated with 2.7% higher chemerin. The associations were even less pronounced when hs-CRP was used as an outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to healthy and sustainable dietary patterns defined using existing definitions for EAT-L and tMDS were associated with minor and not statistically significant reduction in the concentrations of inflammatory biomarkers on the long run. More research is needed to explore whether following these diets may represent a suitable approach for targeted prevention in the general population.

Metabolically defined body size and body shape phenotypes and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Excess body fatness and hyperinsulinemia are both associated with an increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. However, whether women with high body fatness but normal insulin levels or those with normal body fatness and high levels of insulin are at elevated risk of breast cancer is not known. We investigated the associations of metabolically defined body size and shape phenotypes with the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. METHODS: Concentrations of C-peptide-a marker for insulin secretion-were measured at inclusion prior to cancer diagnosis in serum from 610 incident postmenopausal breast cancer cases and 1130 matched controls. C-peptide concentrations among the control participants were used to define metabolically healthy (MH; in first tertile) and metabolically unhealthy (MU; >1st tertile) status. We created four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories by combining the metabolic health definitions with normal weight (NW; BMI < 25 kg/m2 , or WC < 80 cm, or WHR < 0.8) and overweight or obese (OW/OB; BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 , or WC ≥ 80 cm, or WHR ≥ 0.8) status for each of the three anthropometric measures separately: (1) MHNW, (2) MHOW/OB, (3) MUNW, and (4) MUOW/OB. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Women classified as MUOW/OB were at higher risk of postmenopausal breast cancer compared to MHNW women considering BMI (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.14-2.19) and WC (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.09-2.08) cut points and there was also a suggestive increased risk for the WHR (OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 0.94-1.77) definition. Conversely, women with the MHOW/OB and MUNW were not at statistically significant elevated risk of postmenopausal breast cancer risk compared to MHNW women. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that being overweight or obese and metabolically unhealthy raises risk of postmenopausal breast cancer while overweight or obese women with normal insulin levels are not at higher risk. Additional research should consider the combined utility of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters in predicting breast cancer risk.

Dietary fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Diet may impact important risk factors for endometrial cancer such as obesity and inflammation. However, evidence on the role of specific dietary factors is limited. We investigated associations between dietary fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS: This analysis includes 1,886 incident endometrial cancer cases and 297,432 non-cases. All participants were followed up for a mean of 8.8 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of endometrial cancer across quintiles of individual fatty acids estimated from various food sources quantified through food frequency questionnaires in the entire EPIC cohort. The false discovery rate (q-values) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: Consumption of n-6 γ-linolenic acid was inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk (HR comparing 5th with 1st quintileQ5-Q1=0.77, 95% CI = 0.64; 0.92, ptrend=0.01, q-value = 0.15). This association was mainly driven by γ-linolenic acid derived from plant sources (HRper unit increment=0.94, 95%CI= (0.90;0.98), p = 0.01) but not from animal sources (HRper unit increment= 1.00, 95%CI = (0.92; 1.07), p = 0.92). In addition, an inverse association was found between consumption of n-3 α-linolenic acid from vegetable sources and endometrial cancer risk (HRper unit increment= 0.93, 95%CI = (0.87; 0.99), p = 0.04). No significant association was found between any other fatty acids (individual or grouped) and endometrial cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that higher consumption of γ-linolenic acid and α-linoleic acid from plant sources may be associated with lower risk of endometrial cancer.

Dihydroceramide- and ceramide-profiling provides insights into human cardiometabolic disease etiology.

Metabolic alterations precede cardiometabolic disease onset. Here we present ceramide- and dihydroceramide-profiling data from a nested case-cohort (type 2 diabetes [T2D, n = 775]; cardiovascular disease [CVD, n = 551]; random subcohort [n = 1137]) in the prospective EPIC-Potsdam study. We apply the novel NetCoupler-algorithm to link a data-driven (dihydro)ceramide network to T2D and CVD risk. Controlling for confounding by other (dihydro)ceramides, ceramides C18:0 and C22:0 and dihydroceramides C20:0 and C22:2 are associated with higher and ceramide C20:0 and dihydroceramide C26:1 with lower T2D risk. Ceramide C16:0 and dihydroceramide C22:2 are associated with higher CVD risk. Genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomization analyses support a role of ceramide C22:0 in T2D etiology. Our results also suggest that (dh)ceramides partly mediate the putative adverse effect of high red meat consumption and benefits of coffee consumption on T2D risk. Thus, (dihydro)ceramides may play a critical role in linking genetic predisposition and dietary habits to cardiometabolic disease risk.

Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study.

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (ß = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Dietary intake of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and changes in body weight in European adults.

PURPOSE: Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) can be formed in foods by the reaction of reducing sugars with proteins, and have been shown to induce insulin resistance and obesity in experimental studies. We examined the association between dietary AGEs intake and changes in body weight in adults over an average of 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: A total of 255,170 participants aged 25-70 years were recruited in ten European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA study (Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of smoking, Eating out of home in relation to Anthropometry), a sub-cohort of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported between 2 and 11 years later depending on the study center. A reference database for AGEs was used containing UPLC-MS/MS-measured Nε-(carboxymethyl)-lysine (CML), Nε-(1-carboxyethyl)-lysine (CEL), and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1) in 200 common European foods. This reference database was matched to foods and decomposed recipes obtained from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires in EPIC and intake levels of CEL, CML, and MG-H1 were estimated. Associations between dietary AGEs intake and body weight change were estimated separately for each of the three AGEs using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center as random effect and dietary AGEs intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects. RESULTS: A one-SD increment in CEL intake was associated with 0.111 kg (95% CI 0.087-0.135) additional weight gain over 5 years. The corresponding additional weight gain for CML and MG-H1 was 0.065 kg (0.041-0.089) and 0.034 kg (0.012, 0.057), respectively. The top six food groups contributing to AGEs intake, with varying proportions across the AGEs, were cereals/cereal products, meat/processed meat, cakes/biscuits, dairy, sugar and confectionary, and fish/shellfish. CONCLUSION: In this study of European adults, higher intakes of AGEs were associated with marginally greater weight gain over an average of 5 years of follow-up.

Novel adipokines: methodological utility in human obesity research.

BACKGROUND: Adipokines could pose a link between adiposity, systemic inflammation and metabolic disease risk. However, it is unclear whether representative biomarkers are methodologically suitable for use in human obesity research. METHODS: We assessed the intra-individual reproducibility of selected adipokines in a sample of 207, apparently healthy, participants with available biosample collections over a 4-month period. Concentrations of the following adipokines were measured at each sampling time point: fatty-acid binding protein-4 (FABP-4), lipocalin-2, monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), procalcitonin, progranulin, vaspin and visfatin/Nampt. We calculated intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and examined Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: The analyses suggested an overall good to excellent biomarker reproducibility over 4 months: FABP-4: ICC=0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.78), lipocalin-2: 0.64 (0.55, 0.71), MCP-1: 0.85 (0.81; 0.89), procalcitonin: 0.78 (0.72, 0.83), progranulin: 0.59 (0.50, 0.68) and vaspin: 0.86 (0.82, 0.89). A good agreement of the repeated measurements was further supported by the Bland-Altman plots. No substantial differences in biomarker performance according to adiposity status could be observed. Reliability of visfatin/Nampt could not be assessed due to a high number of measurements below the lower limit of detection. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that single measurements of the evaluated adipokines could be used in population-based studies aimed to assess links between obesity, inflammation and metabolic diseases.

An extended fatty liver index to predict non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, there is a strong interest in non-invasive markers of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Our hypothesis was that the fold-change in plasma triglycerides (TG) during a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test (fold-change TGOGTT) in concert with blood glucose and lipid parameters, and the rs738409 C>G single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in PNPLA3 might improve the power of the widely used fatty liver index (FLI) to predict NAFLD. METHODS: The liver fat content of 330 subjects was quantified by 1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Blood parameters were measured during fasting and after a 2-h OGTT. A subgroup of 213 subjects underwent these measurements before and after 9 months of a lifestyle intervention. RESULTS: The fold-change TGOGTT was closely associated with liver fat content (r=0.51, P<0.0001), but had less power to predict NAFLD (AUROC=0.75) than the FLI (AUROC=0.79). Not only was the fold-change TGOGTT independently associated with liver fat content and NAFLD, but so also were the 2-h blood glucose level and rs738409 C>G SNP in PNPLA3. In fact, a novel index (extended FLI) generated from these and the usual FLI parameters considerably increased its power to predict NAFLD (AUROC=0.79-0.86). The extended FLI also increased the power to predict changes in liver fat content with a lifestyle intervention (n=213; standardized beta coefficient: 0.23-0.29). CONCLUSION: This study has provided novel data confirming that the OGTT-derived fold-change TGOGTT and 2-h glucose level, together with the rs738409 C>G SNP in PNPLA3, allow calculation of an extended FLI that considerably improves its power to predict NAFLD.

Association between omentin-1, adiponectin and bone health under consideration of osteoprotegerin as possible mediator.

PURPOSE: Several studies implicated a crosstalk between bone and fat in the pathogenesis of osteoporosis. Few studies indicated an association between adiponectin and omentin-1 on the bone remodeling process and bone mineral density, and suggested osteoprotegerin (OPG) as a mediator of this relationship. However, only limited evidence on this relationship is available in humans. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between omentin-1, adiponectin and broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) in peri-/premenopausal and postmenopausal women, and to assess the role of OPG as a possible mediator. METHODS: Data from the German population-based EPIC-Potsdam cohort comprising 637 women were analyzed. Multivariable-adjusted ANCOVA including age, BMI, waist circumference, smoking status, education, physical activity, adiponectin or omentin-1 and hormone use was used to investigate potential relationships between the adipokines and BUA levels. A mediation analysis assessed the mediating effect of OPG on the association of BUA and omentin-1 levels. RESULTS: Peri-/premenopausal women had higher BUA levels (112.5 ± 10.1 dB/MHz), compared to postmenopausal women (106.3 ± 10.0 dB/MHz). In peri-/premenopausal women neither adiponectin nor omentin-1 was significantly associated with BUA. In postmenopausal women, adiponectin was not associated with BUA, but 10 % increase in the omentin-1 concentration was significantly associated with 0.44 dB/MHz lower BUA levels (p = 0.01). Omentin-1 was positively associated with OPG (p = 0.02); however, OPG was not significantly related to BUA (p = 0.62). CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence for an inverse association between circulating omentin-1 and BUA levels in postmenopausal women. However, the present findings do not support a mediating effect of OPG in the adipose tissue-bone pathway.

Consumption of fatty foods and incident type 2 diabetes in populations from eight European countries.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.

Linking diet, physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness and obesity to serum metabolite networks: findings from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: It is not yet resolved how lifestyle factors and intermediate phenotypes interrelate with metabolic pathways. We aimed to investigate the associations between diet, physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness and obesity with serum metabolite networks in a population-based study. METHODS: The present study included 2380 participants of a randomly drawn subcohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam. Targeted metabolomics was used to measure 127 serum metabolites. Additional data were available including anthropometric measurements, dietary assessment including intake of whole-grain bread, coffee and cake and cookies by food frequency questionnaire, and objectively measured physical activity energy expenditure and cardiorespiratory fitness in a subsample of 100 participants. In a data-driven approach, Gaussian graphical modeling was used to draw metabolite networks and depict relevant associations between exposures and serum metabolites. In addition, the relationship of different exposure metabolite networks was estimated. RESULTS: In the serum metabolite network, the different metabolite classes could be separated. There was a big group of phospholipids and acylcarnitines, a group of amino acids and C6-sugar. Amino acids were particularly positively associated with cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity. C6-sugar and acylcarnitines were positively associated with obesity and inversely with intake of whole-grain bread. Phospholipids showed opposite associations with obesity and coffee intake. Metabolite networks of coffee intake and obesity were strongly inversely correlated (body mass index (BMI): r = -0.57 and waist circumference: r = -0.59). A strong positive correlation was observed between metabolite networks of BMI and waist circumference (r = 0.99), as well as the metabolite networks of cake and cookie intake with cardiorespiratory fitness and intake of whole-grain bread (r = 0.52 and r = 0.50; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle factors and phenotypes seem to interrelate in various metabolic pathways. A possible protective effect of coffee could be mediated via counterbalance of pathways of obesity involving hepatic phospholipids. Experimental studies should validate the biological mechanisms.

Association between erythrocyte membrane fatty acids and biomarkers of dyslipidemia in the EPIC-Potsdam study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Blood proportions of fatty acids (FAs) and FA-ratios reflecting desaturase activity are associated with the risk of chronic diseases like type 2 diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular diseases. Biomarkers of dyslipidemia are considered as potential mediators of this association. We evaluated associations of erythrocyte membrane proportions of individual disease-related polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), trans-FAs, dairy-derived saturated FAs (SFAs) (15:0, 17:0) and FA-ratios with biomarkers of dyslipidemia (high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides). SUBJECTS/METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a subsample (n=1759) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study. Associations of individual FAs and FA-ratios with plasma biomarkers of dyslipidemia were evaluated by linear multivariable regression. RESULTS: Most notably, FA-ratios reflecting activity of Δ6-desaturase (D6D) and stearoyl-coenzyme A-desaturase (SCD) were positively associated with triglyceride and LDL-cholesterol concentrations (adjusted means (95% confidence interval (CI)) of triglycerides (mg/dl) across D6D tertiles: men--102 (94.7-110), 111 (104-120), 144 (134-156) and women--73.5 (70.0-77.2), 82.9 (79.0-86.9), 94.2 (89.7-98.9)); across SCD tertiles: men--99.0 (91.8-107), 115 (107-124), 144 (134-156) and women--72.4 (69.0-76.0), 81.5 (77.8-85.5), 97.2 (92.6-102)), whereas inverse associations with triglycerides were observed for the estimated Δ5-desaturase (D5D) activity (adjusted means (95% CI) of triglycerides (mg/dl) across D5D tertiles: men--128 (119-138), 121 (113-131), 106 (97.9-114) and women--92.0 (87.6-96.6), 82.8 (78.9-86.9), 75.3 (71.6-79.1), P-values for trend at least 0.0006). Furthermore, we observed generally weaker and less consistent associations of dairy-derived SFAs (mainly 17:0) with triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol. Individual PUFAs and trans-FAs were, if at all, only weakly associated with dyslipidemia markers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that triglyceride and LDL-cholesterol concentrations may be mediators that link intake and metabolism of FAs to metabolic risk.

Associated factors of estimated desaturase activity in the EPIC-Potsdam study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Altered activity of desaturase enzymes may be involved in the development of metabolic diseases like type 2-diabetes. Desaturase activities might be modifiable by diet and lifestyle-related factors, but no study has systematically investigated such factors so far. We aimed to evaluate the association of demographic, anthropometric, dietary and lifestyle characteristics with estimated Δ5-, Δ6- and Δ9-desaturase activity. METHODS AND RESULTS: A subsample (n = 1782) of the EPIC-Potsdam study was used for a cross-sectional analysis, involving men and women, mainly aged 35-65 years. Fatty acid (FA) product-to-precursor ratios, derived from the FA composition of erythrocyte membrane phospholipids, were used to estimate desaturase activities. Multiple linear regression models were used with estimated Δ5-, Δ6- and Δ9-desaturase activity as outcome and demographic (age, sex), anthropometric (BMI, WHR), dietary intake (FAs, carbohydrates) and lifestyle (physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption) factors as exposure variables. Alcohol intake was positively associated with estimated Δ6- (explained variance in desaturase activity: 1.52%) and estimated Δ9-desaturase activity (explained variance: 5.53%). BMI and WHR showed a weak inverse association with estimated Δ5-desaturase activity (explained variance: BMI: 1.07%; WHR: 1.02%) and weak positive associations with estimated Δ6-(explained variance: BMI: 1.17%; WHR: 1.19%) and estimated Δ9-desaturase activities (explained variance: BMI: 0.70%; WHR: 0.96%). Age, sex, physical activity, smoking and dietary factors were only weakly associated with the estimated desaturase activities. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that alcohol intake as well as obesity measures are associated with the FA ratios reflecting desaturase activity.

Variation of serum metabolites related to habitual diet: a targeted metabolomic approach in EPIC-Potsdam.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Serum metabolites have been linked to higher risk of chronic diseases but determinants of serum metabolites are not clear. We aimed to investigate the association between habitual diet as a modifiable risk factor and relevant serum metabolites. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This cross-sectional study comprised 2380 EPIC-Potsdam participants. Intake of 45 food groups was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and concentrations of 127 serum metabolites were measured by targeted metabolomics. Reduced rank regression was used to find dietary patterns that explain the maximum variation of metabolites. RESULTS: In the multivariable-adjusted model, the proportion of explained variation by habitual diet was ranked as follows: acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines (5.7%), sphingomyelins (5.1%), diacyl-phosphatidylcholines (4.4%), lyso-phosphatidylcholines (4.1%), acylcarnitines (3.5%), amino acids (2.2%) and hexose (1.6%). A pattern with high intake of butter and low intake of margarine was related to acylcarnitines, acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines, lyso-phosphatidylcholines and hydroxy-sphingomyelins, particularly with saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid side chains. A pattern with high intake of red meat and fish and low intake of whole-grain bread and tea was related to hexose and phosphatidylcholines. A pattern consisting of high intake of potatoes, dairy products and cornflakes particularly explained methionine and branched chain amino acids. Dietary patterns related to type 2 diabetes-relevant metabolites included high intake of red meat and low intake of whole-grain bread, tea, coffee, cake and cookies, canned fruits and fish. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary patterns characterized by intakes of red meat, whole-grain bread, tea and coffee were linked to relevant metabolites and could be potential targets for chronic disease prevention.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

AIM: To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. METHODS: The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. RESULTS: We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. CONCLUSIONS: Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes.

Consumption of sweet beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults: results from EPIC-InterAct.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has been shown, largely in American populations, to increase type 2 diabetes incidence. We aimed to evaluate the association of consumption of sweet beverages (juices and nectars, sugar-sweetened soft drinks and artificially sweetened soft drinks) with type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults. METHODS: We established a case-cohort study including 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants selected from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. After exclusions, the final sample size included 11,684 incident cases and a subcohort of 15,374 participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models (modified for the case-cohort design) and random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the association between sweet beverage consumption (obtained from validated dietary questionnaires) and type 2 diabetes incidence. RESULTS: In adjusted models, one 336 g (12 oz) daily increment in sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption was associated with HRs for type 2 diabetes of 1.22 (95% CI 1.09, 1.38) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.26, 1.83), respectively. After further adjustment for energy intake and BMI, the association of sugar-sweetened soft drinks with type 2 diabetes persisted (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.32), but the association of artificially sweetened soft drinks became statistically not significant (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.95, 1.31). Juice and nectar consumption was not associated with type 2 diabetes incidence. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This study corroborates the association between increased incidence of type 2 diabetes and high consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks in European adults.

Association between dietary meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: A diet rich in meat has been reported to contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes. The present study aims to investigate the association between meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study, a large prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. METHODS: During 11.7 years of follow-up, 12,403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified among 340,234 adults from eight European countries. A centre-stratified random subsample of 16,835 individuals was selected in order to perform a case-cohort design. Prentice-weighted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for incident diabetes according to meat consumption. RESULTS: Overall, multivariate analyses showed significant positive associations with incident type 2 diabetes for increasing consumption of total meat (50 g increments: HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.05, 1.12), red meat (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03, 1.13) and processed meat (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.05, 1.19), and a borderline positive association with meat iron intake. Effect modifications by sex and class of BMI were observed. In men, the results of the overall analyses were confirmed. In women, the association with total and red meat persisted, although attenuated, while an association with poultry consumption also emerged (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.07, 1.34). These associations were not evident among obese participants. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This prospective study confirms a positive association between high consumption of total and red meat and incident type 2 diabetes in a large cohort of European adults.

Body iron stores and risk of type 2 diabetes: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to prospectively examine the association between body iron stores and risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We designed a case-cohort study among 27,548 individuals within the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study. During 7 years of follow-up, 849 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified. Of these, 607 remained for analyses after exclusion of participants with missing data or abnormal glucose levels at baseline. A sub-cohort of 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the full cohort, comprising 1,969 individuals after applying the same exclusion criteria. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, sports activity, bicycling, education, occupational activity, smoking habit, alcohol consumption and circulating levels of γ-glutamyltransferase, alanine aminotransferase, fetuin-A, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, adiponectin, HDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerol, higher serum ferritin concentrations were associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (RR in the highest vs lowest quintile, 1.73; 95% CI 1.15, 2.61; p(trend) = 0.002). No significant association was observed for soluble transferrin receptor (RR 1.33; 95% CI 0.85, 2.09; p(trend) = 0.50). The soluble transferrin receptor-to-ferritin ratio was significantly inversely related to risk (RR 0.61; 95% CI 0.41, 0.91; p(trend) = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: High ferritin levels are associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes independently of established diabetes risk factors and a range of diabetes biomarkers whereas soluble transferrin receptor concentrations are not related to risk. These results support the hypothesis that higher iron stores below the level of haemochromatosis are associated with risk of type 2 diabetes.

Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women: influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. DESIGN: Multicentre prospective case-cohort study. SETTING: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. SUBJECTS: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. INTERVENTIONS: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. RESULTS: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.78-1.05) for 6.1-12.0 versus 0.1-6.0 g day(-1) , adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.1-96.0 g day(-1) with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92) for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg m(-2) ) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.03 for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) ). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.