Use of metamizole and other non-opioid analgesics in Switzerland between 2014 and 2019: an observational study using a large health insurance claims database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate claims patterns for metamizole and other non-opioid analgesics in Switzerland. To characterise users of these non-opioid analgesics regarding sex, age, comedications and canton of residence. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using administrative claims data of outpatient prescribed non-opioid analgesics of the Swiss health insurance company Helsana between January 2014 and December 2019. First, we evaluated the number of claims and defined daily doses  per year of metamizole, ibuprofen, diclofenac and paracetamol in adults aged 18 years or over. Second, we characterised new users of these non-opioid analgesics in terms of sex, age, claimed comedications and canton of residence. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2019, among the investigated non-opioid analgesics, metamizole showed the highest increase in claims (+9545 claims, +50%) and defined daily doses (+86,869 defined daily doses, +84%) per 100,000 adults. Metamizole users had the highest median age (62 years [IQR: 44-77]) compared to ibuprofen (47 years [IQR: 33-62]), diclofenac (57 years [IQR: 43-71]) and paracetamol (58 years [IQR: 39-75]) users. Metamizole users also more frequently claimed proton pump inhibitors, anticoagulants, platelet aggregation inhibitors and antihypertensive drugs than users of other non-opioid analgesics. While metamizole was most frequently claimed in German-speaking regions of Switzerland, ibuprofen and paracetamol were most frequently claimed in the French-speaking regions and diclofenac in German- and Italian-speaking regions. CONCLUSION: In Switzerland, metamizole was increasingly claimed between 2014 and 2019. Metamizole was most frequently claimed by older adults and patients with comedications suggestive of underlying conditions, which can be worsened or caused by use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The lack of studies regarding the effectiveness and safety of metamizole in this population warrants further investigation.

Cost-effectiveness of a structured medication review approach for multimorbid older adults: Within-trial analysis of the OPERAM study.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate polypharmacy has been linked with adverse outcomes in older, multimorbid adults. OPERAM is a European cluster-randomized trial aimed at testing the effect of a structured pharmacotherapy optimization intervention on preventable drug-related hospital admissions in multimorbid adults with polypharmacy aged 70 years or older. Clinical results of the trial showed a pattern of reduced drug-related hospital admissions, but without statistical significance. In this study we assessed the cost-effectiveness of the pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention. METHODS: We performed a pre-planned within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the OPERAM intervention, from a healthcare system perspective. All data were collected within the trial apart from unit costs. QALYs were computed by applying the crosswalk German valuation algorithm to EQ-5D-5L-based quality of life data. Considering the clustered structure of the data and between-country heterogeneity, we applied Generalized Structural Equation Models (GSEMs) on a multiple imputed sample to estimate costs and QALYs. We also performed analyses by country and subgroup analyses by patient and morbidity characteristics. RESULTS: Trial-wide, the intervention was numerically dominant, with a potential cost-saving of CHF 3'588 (95% confidence interval (CI): -7'716; 540) and gain of 0.025 QALYs (CI: -0.002; 0.052) per patient. Robustness analyses confirmed the validity of the GSEM model. Subgroup analyses suggested stronger effects in people at higher risk. CONCLUSION: We observed a pattern towards dominance, potentially resulting from an accumulation of multiple small positive intervention effects. Our methodological approaches may inform other CEAs of multi-country, cluster-randomized trials facing presence of missing values and heterogeneity between centres/countries.

Utilisation patterns and costs of lipid-lowering drugs in Switzerland 2013-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse utilisation patterns of lipid-lowering drugs and the related costs in Switzerland between the years 2013 and 2019. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using administrative claims data of persons aged ≥18 years enrolled with the health insurance company Helsana. To enable statements at the Swiss population level, results were extrapolated according to age, sex and canton of residence. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of patients taking lipid-lowering drugs rose from 8.9% (n = 736,174) in 2013 to 11.6% (n = 841,682) in 2019, but varied markedly across regions, with highest values in Ticino and lowest values in Zurich. More than every third individual aged ≥65 years was treated with a lipid-lowering drug in 2019. Statins were by far the most commonly used drugs (>90% of prescriptions), followed by ezetimibe, fibrates and PCSK9 inhibitors. We observed a trend towards the prescription of more potent statins (atorvastatin, rosuvastatin) in recent years. Total costs of lipid-lowering drugs increased from CHF 222 million in 2013 to CHF 230 million in 2019 (+3.5%), whereas annual per capita costs decreased from CHF 302 in 2013 to CHF 273 in 2019 (-9.4%). CONCLUSION: The increasing use of lipid-lowering drugs reflects current therapeutic guidelines, but results in high costs for the healthcare system.

Cost Effectiveness and Budget Impact of Siponimod Compared to Interferon Beta-1a in the Treatment of Adult Patients with Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis with Active Disease in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: The study aim was to evaluate the cost effectiveness and budget impact of siponimod compared to interferon beta-1a for adult patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) with active disease, from a Swiss health insurance perspective. METHODS: We conducted an analysis using a Markov cohort model with a cycle length of 1 year, life-long time horizon, and discount rate of 3% for cost and health outcomes. We used a matching-adjusted indirect comparison to estimate clinical outcomes using data from the EXPAND randomised controlled trial of siponimod vs placebo and the Nordic SPMS randomised controlled trial of interferon beta-1a vs placebo as the basis for estimates of disability progression and relapse outcomes. We used 6-month confirmed disability progression results to estimate disability progression in the base-case analysis. We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) based on an external study that administered the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire to European patients with multiple sclerosis. We included costs (Swiss Franc (CHF), year 2020) of drug acquisition/administration, adverse events and disease management. We also performed a budget impact analysis to estimate the cost over the first 3 years of introducing siponimod. RESULTS: For the base case, siponimod resulted in mean incremental costs of CHF 84,901 (siponimod: CHF 567,838, interferon beta-1a: CHF 482,937) and mean incremental QALYs of 1.591 (siponimod: 7.495, interferon beta-1a: 5.905), leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CHF 53,364 per QALY gained. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability of the cost effectiveness of siponimod assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of CHF 100,000 per QALY gained was 90%. Siponimod was projected to result in drug administration costs for siponimod of CHF 23,817,856 in the first 3 years after introduction, accompanied by large cost offsets in drug acquisition of other multiple sclerosis drugs. Considering drug administration, monitoring and adverse event management costs, it was estimated to result in additional healthcare costs in Switzerland of CHF 2,177,021. CONCLUSIONS: In the base-case analysis, we found that siponimod may be cost effective for treating Swiss adult patients with SPMS with active disease. The results of the cost-effectiveness analyses are valid under the assumption that the efficacy of siponimod and the comparators on disability progression for the overall SPMS population would be the same in the active SPMS population. CLINICAL TRIAL IDENTIFIER: NCT01665144. This economic evaluation was based on the EXPAND trial.

A scoping review shows that several nonvalidated budget planning tools for randomized trials are available.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to provide a systematic overview of freely available tools which may help plan or monitor costs for randomized clinical trials (RCTs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and EconLit and conducted internet searches via Google (last search, October 2018). We included all freely available tools and determined their specific purpose, which parts of clinical trial projects and which types of costs they covered, and if they were user-tested or validated in any form. RESULTS: We identified 25 available tools. Most tools were downloadable on websites from institutions related to clinical research. Seven tools were developed to plan the budget for an entire RCT, 17 tools for calculating budgets of an individual trial center, and one tool for monitoring costs of ongoing RCTs. Eighteen tools considered fixed, variable, and indirect costs. Only two tools were clearly user-tested or validated. CONCLUSION: Several freely available tools aim to support investigators in planning costs of an entire trial or in planning the budget for a clinical trial site. How valid and useful they are remains to be shown for most of them. Future tools should be openly shared, user-tested, and validated.

Coverage rates and timeliness of nationally recommended vaccinations in Swiss preschool children: A descriptive analysis using claims data.

BACKGROUND: Low vaccination coverage as well as incomplete and delayed vaccinations pose a risk for the individual and population protection from vaccine-preventable diseases. AIM: To describe vaccination patterns for nationally recommended basic and supplementary vaccinations in Swiss preschool children. METHODS: We performed a descriptive study based on administrative claims data from a large Swiss health insurer (Helsana), in cohorts of children born between January 2010 and December 2016. We assessed coverage rates of nationally recommended basic vaccinations (i.e., diphtheria, tetanus, acellular pertussis [DTaP], Haemophilus influenzae type b [Hib], poliomyelitis [IPV], measles, mumps, and rubella [MMR]) and supplementary vaccinations (i.e., pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV] and meningococcal group C conjugate vaccine [MCV]) for each birth cohort at the age of 13, 25, and 37 months. Additionally, we analysed timeliness of vaccinations using inverse Kaplan-Meier curves. Results were extrapolated to the Swiss population. RESULTS: The study population comprised 563,216 children. We observed continuously increasing coverage rates for all vaccinations until the 2015 birth cohort. Overall, up-to-date status for the first dose of studied vaccinations at 37 months was as follows: DTaP: 95.4%; Hib: 94.9%; IPV: 95.5%; MMR: 86.8%; PCV: 83.2%; and MCV: 66.7%. On average, however, only seven out of ten children had an up-to-date status for completed basic vaccinations; even less (six out of ten) were up-to-date for recommended supplementary vaccinations at 37 months of age. Moreover, 4% of all analysed children received none of the recommended vaccinations and there were substantial regional differences. Delays in vaccine administration were common. The most frequently postponed basic vaccination was MMR; 22.6% of children vaccinated with the first dose experienced delays relative to age-appropriate standards. CONCLUSION: To avoid future outbreaks and transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases, vaccination coverage in Switzerland must be further improved. In addition, more emphasis should be placed on timely vaccination.

Economic evaluation of a novel genetic screening test for risk of venous thromboembolism compared with standard of care in women considering combined hormonal contraception in Switzerland.

AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of the Pill Protect (PP) genetic screening test for venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk compared with standard of care (SoC), for women considering combined hormonal contraceptives (CHCs) in Switzerland. METHODS: A two-part microsimulation model was developed to estimate VTE events, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with the PP and SoC strategies. In the first portion of the model, a cohort of 1 million Swiss first-time seekers of a CHC were simulated. It was determined whether each women would receive a CHC or non-CHC by using prescribing patterns elicited from a modified Delphi study. These results formed the basis of the SoC strategy. For the PP strategy, a PP test was included and the results considered in addition to SoC practice. Each woman then entered a Markov model that captured morbidity and mortality over a lifetime. The risk of having a VTE was derived from the risk algorithm that underpins the PP test. The remaining model inputs relating to population characteristics, costs, health resource use, mortality and utilities were derived from published studies or national sources. The model was validated and calibrated to align with population-based studies. Extensive uncertainty analyses were conducted. RESULTS: From a Swiss health system perspective, the PP strategy in comparison with the SoC strategy generated an additional CHF 231, and gained 0.003 QALYs per woman, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CHF 76 610 per QALY gained. Assuming a threshold of CHF 100 000 per QALY gained, the PP strategy is likely to be cost effective. Our results were generally robust to variations in the parameter values. CONCLUSIONS: The PP test may be cost effective in Switzerland for screening women seeking CHCs for their risk of VTE based on the current evidence.

Drug prescription patterns, polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication in Swiss nursing homes: a descriptive analysis based on claims data.

BACKGROUND: To date, comprehensive data on drug utilisation in Swiss nursing homes are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To describe drug prescription patterns, polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in Swiss nursing home residents (NHR). METHODS: Using administrative claims data provided by the Swiss health insurance company Helsana, we assessed drug claims and drug costs in 2016 in individuals aged ≥65 years and insured with Helsana, who were either NHR or living in the community (reference group, RG). In particular, we analysed the prevalence of polypharmacy (≥5 claims for different drugs during a 3-month period) and PIM use according to the 2015 Beers criteria and the PRISCUS list. We standardised the results to the Swiss population. RESULTS: In 2016, NHR had on average nearly twice as many drug claims per capita as individuals in the RG (NHR 58.8; RG 30.8). The average per capita drug costs per day for NHR were low, but higher than in the RG (NHR CHF 8.55; RG CHF 5.45). The same pattern applied to the prevalence of polypharmacy (NHR 85.5%; RG 50.4%). Standardisation by age and sex did not materially alter these observations. Overall, 79.1% of NHR received ≥1 PIM, and 56.2% were long-term users (≥3 claims) of at least one PIM (based on the combined PRISCUS list and Beers criteria). Among all PIMs in nursing homes, quetiapine (antipsychotic agent), lorazepam (anxiolytic agent) and zolpidem (hypnotic agent) were the most prevalent (22.4, 20.2 and 13.0%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of polypharmacy and PIM in Swiss nursing homes may indicate a need for interventions aiming at de-prescribing drugs with an unfavourable benefit-risk profile.

Resource use, costs, and approval times for planning and preparing a randomized clinical trial before and after the implementation of the new Swiss human research legislation.

BACKGROUND: The preparation of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) requires substantial resources and the administrative processes can be burdensome. To facilitate the conduct of RCTs it is important to better understand cost drivers. In January 2014 the enactment of the new Swiss Legislation on Human Research (LHR) considerably changed the regulatory framework in Switzerland. We assess if the new LHR was associated with change in (i) resource use and costs to prepare an RCT, and (ii) approval times with research ethics committees (RECs) and the regulatory authority Swissmedic. METHODS: We surveyed investigators of RCTs which were approved by RECs in 2012 or in 2016 and asked for RCT preparation costs using a pre-specified item list. Additionally, we collected approval times from RECs and Swissmedic. RESULTS: The response rates of the investigator survey were 8.3% (19/228) for 2012 and 16.5% (47/285) in 2016. The median preparation cost of an RCT was USD 72,400 (interquartile range [IQR]: USD 59,500-87,700; n = 18) in 2012 and USD 72,600 (IQR: USD 42,800-169,600; n = 35) in 2016. For single centre RCTs a median REC approval time of 82 (IQR: 49-107; n = 38) days in 2012 and 92 (IQR: 65-131; n = 63) days in 2016 was observed. The median Swissmedic approval time for any clinical trial was 27 (IQR: 19-51; n = 213) days in 2012 and 49 (IQR: 36-67; n = 179) days in 2016. The total duration for achieving RCT approval from both authorities (REC and Swissmedic) in the parallel submission procedure applied in 2016 could not be assessed. CONCLUSION: Based on limited data the costs to plan and prepare RCTs in Switzerland were approximately USD 72,000 in 2012 and 2016. For effective and valid research on costs and approval times of RCTs a greater willingness to share cost information among investigators and more collaboration between stakeholders with data linkage is necessary.

A longitudinal review of national HIV policy and progress made in health facility implementation in Eastern Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, WHO has made major changes to its guidance on the provision of HIV care and treatment services. We conducted a longitudinal study from 2013 to 2015 to establish how these changes have been translated into national policy in Zimbabwe and to measure progress in implementation within local health facilities. METHODS: National HIV programme policy guidelines published between 2003 and 2013 (n = 9) and 2014 and 2015 (n = 5) were reviewed to assess adoption of WHO recommendations on HIV testing services, prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, and provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Changes in local implementation of these policies over time were measured in two rounds of a survey conducted at 36 health facilities in Eastern Zimbabwe in 2013 and 2015. RESULTS: High levels of adoption of WHO guidance into national policy were recorded, including adoption of new recommendations made in 2013-2015 to introduce PMTCT Option B+ and to increase the threshold for ART initiation from CD4 ≤ 350 cells/mm3 to ≤ 500 cells/mm3. New strategies to implement national HIV policies were introduced such as the decentralisation of ART services from hospitals to clinics and task-shifting of care from doctors to nurses. The proportions of health facilities offering free HIV testing and counselling, PMTCT (including Option B+) and ART services increased substantially from 2013 to 2015, despite reductions in numbers of health workers. Provision of provider-initiated HIV testing remained consistently high. At least one test-kit stock-out in the prior year was reported in most facilities (2013: 69%; 2015: 61%; p = 0.44). Stock-outs of first-line ART and prophylactic drugs for opportunistic infections remained low. Repeat testing for HIV-negative individuals within 3 months decreased (2013: 97%; 2015: 72%; p = 0.01). Laboratory testing remained low across both survey rounds, despite policy and operational guidelines to expand coverage of diagnostic services. CONCLUSIONS: Good progress has been made in implementing international guidance on HIV service delivery in Zimbabwe. Further novel implementation strategies may be needed to achieve the latest targets for universal ART eligibility.

Cost-effectiveness of everolimus-eluting versus bare-metal stents in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: An analysis from the EXAMINATION randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Use of everolimus-eluting stents (EES) has proven to be clinically effective and safe in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction but it remains unclear whether it is cost-effective compared to bare-metal stents (BMS) in the long-term. We sought to assess the cost-effectiveness of EES versus BMS based on the 5-year results of the EXAMINATION trial, from a Spanish health service perspective. METHODS: Decision analysis of the use of EES versus BMS was based on the patient-level clinical outcome data of the EXAMINATION trial. The analysis adopted a lifelong time horizon, assuming that long-term survival was independent of the initial treatment strategy after the end of follow-up. Life-expectancy, health-state utility scores and unit costs were extracted from published literature and publicly available sources. Non-parametric bootstrapping was combined with probabilistic sensitivity analysis to co-assess the impact of patient-level variation and parameter uncertainty. The main outcomes were total costs and quality-adjusted life-years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was expressed as cost per quality-adjusted life-years gained. Costs and effects were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: The model predicted an average survival time in patients receiving EES and BMS of 10.52 and 10.38 undiscounted years, respectively. Over the life-long time horizon, the EES strategy was €430 more costly than BMS (€8,305 vs. €7,874), but went along with incremental gains of 0.10 quality-adjusted life-years. This resulted in an average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio over all simulations of €3,948 per quality-adjusted life-years gained and was below a willingness-to-pay threshold of €25,000 per quality-adjusted life-years gained in 86.9% of simulation runs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite higher total costs relative to BMS, EES appeared to be a cost-effective therapy for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients due to their incremental effectiveness. Predicted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were below generally acceptable threshold values.

Retrospective assessment of resource use and costs in two investigator-initiated randomized trials exemplified a comprehensive cost item list.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are costly and published information on resource requirements for their conduct is limited. To identify key factors for making RCTs more sustainable, empirical data on resource use and associated costs are needed. We aimed to retrospectively assess resource use and detailed costs of two academic, investigator-initiated RCTs using a comprehensive list of cost items. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The resource use of two investigator-initiated RCTs (Prednisone-Trial [NCT00973154] and Oxantel-Trial [ISRCTN54577342]) was empirically assessed in a standardized manner through semistructured interviews and a systematically developed cost item list. Using information about yearly salaries, resource use was translated into costs. In addition, we collected all "other costs" including fixed priced items. Overall costs as well as cost of different study phases were calculated. RESULTS: The personnel time used in the Prednisone-Trial trial was approximately 2,897 working days and the overall costs were calculated to be USD 2.3 million, which was USD 700,000 more than planned. In the Oxantel-Trial 798 working days were spent and the overall costs were as originally planned USD 100,000. Cost drivers were similar between the two RCTs with recruitment delays explaining the additional costs in the Prednisone-Trial. CONCLUSION: This case study provides an example of how to transparently assess resources and costs of RCTs and presents detailed empirical data on type and magnitude of expenses. In the future, this model approach may serve others to plan, assess, or monitor resource use and costs of RCTs.

Prevalence and Associations of Psychological Distress, HIV Infection and HIV Care Service Utilization in East Zimbabwe.

The correlation between mental health and sexual risk behaviours for HIV infection remains largely unknown in low and middle income settings. The present study determined the prevalence of psychological distress (PD) in a sub-Saharan African population with a generalized HIV epidemic, and investigated associations with HIV acquisition risk and uptake of HIV services using data from a cross-sectional survey of 13,252 adults. PD was measured using the Shona Symptom Questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to measure associations between PD and hypothesized covariates. The prevalence of PD was 4.5% (95% CI 3.9-5.1%) among men, and 12.9% (95% CI 12.2-13.6%) among women. PD was associated with sexual risk behaviours for HIV infection and HIV-infected individuals were more likely to suffer from PD. Amongst those initiated on anti-retroviral therapy, individuals with PD were less likely to adhere to treatment (91 vs. 96%; age- and site-type-adjusted odds ratio = 0.38; 95% CI 0.15, 0.99). Integrated HIV and mental health services may enhance HIV care and treatment outcomes in high HIV-prevalence populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Systematic review on costs and resource use of randomized clinical trials shows a lack of transparent and comprehensive data.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are costly. We aimed to provide a systematic overview of the available evidence on resource use and costs for RCTs to support budget planning. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and HealthSTAR from inception until November 30, 2016 without language restrictions. We included any publication reporting empirical data on resource use and costs of RCTs and categorized them depending on whether they reported (i) resource and costs of all aspects at all study stages of an RCT (including conception, planning, preparation, conduct, and all tasks after the last patient has completed the RCT); (ii) on several aspects, (iii) on a single aspect (e.g., recruitment); or (iv) on overall costs for RCTs. Median costs of different recruitment strategies were calculated. Other results (e.g., overall costs) were listed descriptively. All cost data were converted into USD 2017. RESULTS: A total of 56 articles that reported on cost or resource use of RCTs were included. None of the articles provided empirical resource use and cost data for all aspects of an entire RCT. Eight articles presented resource use and cost data on several aspects (e.g., aggregated cost data of different drug development phases, site-specific costs, selected cost components). Thirty-five articles assessed costs of one specific aspect of an RCT (i.e., 30 on recruitment; five others). The median costs per recruited patient were USD 409 (range: USD 41-6,990). Overall costs of an RCT, as provided in 16 articles, ranged from USD 43-103,254 per patient, and USD 0.2-611.5 Mio per RCT but the methodology of gathering these overall estimates remained unclear in 12 out of 16 articles (75%). CONCLUSION: The usefulness of the available empirical evidence on resource use and costs of RCTs is limited. Transparent and comprehensive resource use and cost data are urgently needed to support budget planning for RCTs and help improve sustainability.

Spatial patterns of HIV prevalence and service use in East Zimbabwe: implications for future targeting of interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Focusing resources for HIV control on geographic areas of greatest need in countries with generalized epidemics has been recommended to increase cost-effectiveness. However, socioeconomic inequalities between areas of high and low prevalence could raise equity concerns and have been largely overlooked. We describe spatial patterns in HIV prevalence in east Zimbabwe and test for inequalities in accessibility and uptake of HIV services prior to the introduction of spatially-targeted programmes. METHODS: 8092 participants in an open-cohort study were geo-located to 110 locations. HIV prevalence and HIV testing and counselling (HTC) uptake were mapped with ordinary kriging. Clusters of high or low HIV prevalence were detected with Kulldorff statistics, and the socioeconomic characteristics and sexual risk behaviours of their populations, and levels of local HIV service availability (measured in travel distance) and uptake were compared. Kulldorff statistics were also determined for HTC, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) uptake. RESULTS: One large and one small high HIV prevalence cluster (relative risk [RR] = 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.53-2.07; RR = 2.50, 95% CI = 2.08-3.01) and one low-prevalence cluster (RR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.60-0.82) were detected. The larger high-prevalence cluster was urban with a wealthier population and more high-risk sexual behaviour than outside the cluster. Despite better access to HIV services, there was lower HTC uptake in the high-prevalence cluster (odds ratio [OR] of HTC in past three years: OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66-0.97). The low-prevalence cluster was predominantly rural with a poorer population and longer travel distances to HIV services; however, uptake of HIV services was not reduced. CONCLUSION: High-prevalence clusters can be identified to which HIV control resources could be targeted. To date, poorer access to HIV services in the poorer low-prevalence areas has not resulted in lower service uptake, whilst there is significantly lower uptake of HTC in the high-prevalence cluster where health service access is better. Given the high levels of risky sexual behaviour and lower uptake of HTC services, targeting high-prevalence clusters may be cost-effective in this setting. If spatial targeting is introduced, inequalities in HIV service uptake may be avoided through mobile service provision for lower prevalence areas.

The relationship between parental education and children's schooling in a time of economic turmoil: The case of East Zimbabwe, 2001 to 2011.

Using data collected from 1998 to 2011 in a general population cohort study in eastern Zimbabwe, we describe education trends and the relationship between parental education and children's schooling during the Zimbabwean economic collapse of the 2000s. During this period, the previously-rising trend in education stalled, with girls suffering disproportionately; however, female enrolment increased as the economy began to recover. Throughout the period, children with more educated parents continued to have better outcomes such that, at the population level, an underlying increase in the proportion of children with more educated parents may have helped to maintain the upwards education trend.

Rising Levels of HIV Infection in Older Adults in Eastern Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: With the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment across Africa, many people are living longer with HIV. Understanding the ageing of the HIV cohort and sexual behaviour among older adults are important for appropriately responding to the changing demographics of people living with HIV. METHODS: We used data from a large population-based open cohort in eastern Zimbabwe to examine HIV prevalence trends and incidence among those aged 45 years and older. Five survey rounds have been completed between 1998 and 2011. Incidence was analysed using midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV test. RESULTS: Across the survey rounds, 13,071 individuals were followed for 57,676 person years. While HIV prevalence among people aged 15-44 has fallen across the five rounds, HIV prevalence among those aged 45-54 has increased since the 2006-08 survey round. In the 2009-11 round, HIV prevalence among men aged 45-54 was 23.4% compared to 11.0% among those aged 15-44. HIV positive people aged 45-54 now represent more than 20% of all those living with HIV in Manicaland. Among those aged 45 years and older, there were 85 seroconversions in 11,999 person years for an HIV incidence of 0.708 per 100 person years. Analysis of cohort data and assessment of behavioural risk factors for HIV infection among older people shows significantly lower levels of condom use among older adults and a number of seroconversions past the age of 50. CONCLUSIONS: The cohort of people living with HIV is ageing in Zimbabwe and the behaviour of older adults puts them at risk of HIV infection. Older adults must be included in both HIV prevention and treatment programs.

The effects of household wealth on HIV prevalence in Manicaland, Zimbabwe - a prospective household census and population-based open cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Intensified poverty arising from economic decline and crisis may have contributed to reductions in HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of the economic decline on household wealth and prevalent HIV infection using data from a population-based open cohort. METHODS: Household wealth was estimated using data from a prospective household census in Manicaland Province (1998 to 2011). Temporal trends in summed asset ownership indices for sellable, non-sellable and all assets combined were compared for households in four socio-economic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). Multivariate logistic random-effects models were used to measure differences in individual-level associations between prevalent HIV infection and place of residence, absolute wealth group and occupation. RESULTS: Household mean asset scores remained similar at around 0.37 (on a scale of 0 to 1) up to 2007 but decreased to below 0.35 thereafter. Sellable assets fell substantially from 2004 while non-sellable assets continued increasing until 2008. Small-town households had the highest wealth scores but the gap to other locations decreased over time, especially for sellable assets. Concurrently, adult HIV prevalence fell from 22.3 to 14.3%. HIV prevalence was highest in better-off locations (small towns) but differed little by household wealth or occupation. Initially, HIV prevalence was elevated in women from poorer households and lower in men in professional occupations. However, most recently (2009 to 2011), men and women in the poorest households had lower HIV prevalence and men in professional occupations had similar prevalence to unemployed men. CONCLUSIONS: The economic crisis drove more households into extreme poverty. However, HIV prevalence fell in all socio-economic locations and sub-groups, and there was limited evidence that increased poverty contributed to HIV prevalence decline.

Do HIV prevalence trends in antenatal clinic surveillance represent trends in the general population in the antiretroviral therapy era? The case of Manicaland, East Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: National estimates of HIV trends in generalized epidemics rely on HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance. We investigate whether HIV prevalence trends in ANC data reflect trends in men and women in the general population during the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. METHODS: Trends in HIV prevalence in local ANC attendees and adults aged 15-49 years in towns, agricultural estates, and villages were compared using five rounds of parallel ANC (N = 1200) and general-population surveys (N = 10 000) and multivariable log-linear regression. Changes in the age pattern of HIV prevalence and the age distribution of ANC attendees were compared with those in the general population. Age-specific pregnancy prevalence rates were compared by HIV infection and ART status. RESULTS: Cumulatively, from 1998-2000 to 2009-2011, HIV prevalence fell by 60.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.1-67.3%) in ANC surveillance data and by 34.3% (30.8-37.7%) in the general population. Most of the difference arose following the introduction of ART (2006-2011). The estates and villages reflected this overall pattern but HIV prevalence in the towns was lower at local ANCs than in the general population, largely because of attendance by pregnant women from outlying (lower prevalence) areas. The ageing of people living with HIV in the general population (52.4% aged >35 years, 2009-2011) was under-represented in the ANC data (12.6%) because of lower fertility in older and HIV-infected women. CONCLUSION: After the introduction of ART in Manicaland, HIV prevalence declined more steeply in ANC surveillance data than in the general population. Models used for HIV estimates must reflect this change in bias.

Spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and treatment needs in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and geostatistical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis affects more than 200 million individuals, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, but empirical estimates of the disease burden in this region are unavailable. We used geostatistical modelling to produce high-resolution risk estimates of infection with Schistosoma spp and of the number of doses of praziquantel treatment needed to prevent morbidity at different administrative levels in 44 countries. METHODS: We did a systematic review to identify surveys including schistosomiasis prevalence data in sub-Saharan Africa via PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and African Journals Online, from inception to May 2, 2014, with no restriction of language, survey date, or study design. We used Bayesian geostatistical meta-analysis and rigorous variable selection to predict infection risk over a grid of 1 155 818 pixels at 5 × 5 km, on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic predictors and to calculate the number of doses of praziquantel needed for prevention of morbidity. FINDINGS: The literature search identified Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni surveys done in, respectively, 9318 and 9140 unique locations. Infection risk decreased from 2000 onwards, yet estimates suggest that 163 million (95% Bayesian credible interval [CrI] 155 million to 172 million; 18·5%, 17·6-19·5) of the sub-Saharan African population was infected in 2012. Mozambique had the highest prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-aged children (52·8%, 95% CrI 48·7-57·8). Low-risk countries (prevalence among school-aged children lower than 10%) included Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, and Rwanda. The numbers of doses of praziquantel needed per year were estimated to be 123 million (95% CrI 121 million to 125 million) for school-aged children and 247 million (239 million to 256 million) for the entire population. INTERPRETATION: Our results will inform policy makers about the number of treatments needed at different levels and will guide the spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions. FUNDING: European Research Council, China Scholarship Council, UBS Optimus Foundation, and Swiss National Science Foundation.