Adolescent Suicidal Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: Analysis of Acute Harms Assessed via Ambulance Data.

PURPOSE: This study investigated changes in suicidal ideation, attempts, and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI)-related ambulance attendances among adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis using data from the National Ambulance Surveillance System, a globally unique mental health and suicide surveillance system. Patients aged 12-17 years from the state of Victoria, Australia who were attended by ambulance for suicide attempts, suicide ideation, and NSSI between January 2016 and October 2021 were included. Monthly ambulance attendances during the pre-COVID period (January 2016-March 2020) were compared to those in the peak period of COVID-19 (April 2020-October 2021). RESULTS: There were 20,125 ambulance attendances for suicide ideation, suicide attempt, and NSSI in adolescents over the study period. During the pre-COVID period, the number of suicide ideation, attempts, and NSSI attendances was increasing by 1.1% per month (incidence rate ratio [IRR]:1.011; 95% confidence interval [1.009-1.013], p < .001). There was no change in the rate of all suicide ideation, attempt, and NSSI for all adolescents during the period of COVID-19. However, when disaggregated by gender, there was a 0.7% increase in the monthly rate of attendances for females (IRR: 1.007 [1.001-1.013], p = .029), and a 3.0% decrease for males (IRR: 0.970 [0.964-0.975], p < .001). DISCUSSION: Adolescent female suicide ideation, attempt, and NSSI attendances increased during the COVID-19 period, compared with males in the same time period. These findings suggest tailored intervention strategies may be needed to address the increasing trends of self-harm among young people.

Using ambulance surveillance data to characterise blood-borne viral infection histories among patients presenting with acute alcohol and other drug-related harms.

OBJECTIVE: Preventable transmission of blood-borne viruses (BBV), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV), continue in at-risk populations, including people who use alcohol and drugs (AODs). To our knowledge, no studies have explored the use of ambulance data for surveillance of AOD harms in patients with BBV infections. METHODS: We used electronic patient care records from the National Ambulance Surveillance System for people who were attended by an ambulance in Victoria, Australia between July 2015 and July 2016 for AOD-related harms, and with identified history of a BBV infection. Descriptive and geospatial analyses explored the epidemiological and psychosocial characteristics of patients for these attendances. RESULTS: The present study included 1832 patients with a history of a BBV infection who required an ambulance for AOD-related harms. Amphetamines were reported in 24.7% of attendances where the patient identified HIV history, and heroin was reported more often for patients with viral hepatitis history (HCV: 19.2%; HBV: 12.7%). Higher proportions of attendances with a viral hepatitis history were observed in patients from the most socially disadvantaged areas. Geospatial analyses revealed higher concentrations of AOD attendances with a BBV history occurring in metropolitan Melbourne. CONCLUSIONS: Our study describes the utility of ambulance data to identify a sub-population of patients with a BBV history and complex medical and social characteristics. Repeat attendances of BBV history patients to paramedics could present an opportunity for ongoing surveillance using ambulance data and possible paramedic intervention, with potential linkage to appropriate BBV services.

Impacts of Northern Territory banned drinker register on police recorded youth assault.

INTRODUCTION: In September 2017 the Northern Territory Government of Australia introduced a banned drinker register (BDR) to mitigate the high levels of alcohol-related harm within the Northern Territory. The current study aimed to examine the impact of the Northern Territory BDR on youth (aged <18 years) using police recorded assault data. METHODS: Interrupted time-series models were used to assess monthly trends in assaults and alcohol-related assaults perpetration and victimisation in the regions of Greater Darwin, Alice Springs and Katherine between January 2014 and December 2019. RESULTS: Examining the three regions combined, after the re-introduction of the BDR a significant step decrease in police recorded youth assault perpetration (ß = -1.67) and a significant step increase in police recorded youth assault victimisation (ß = 1.40) was identified. However, no significant effects were identified at the individual region level. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that restricting alcohol consumption in high-risk adults through the BDR had a limited immediate effect in police recorded youth assaults. Individual level or contextual factors may have influenced both immediate and long-term impacts of the BDR, and as such, future policy design needs to support and empower community leaders across the policy development and implementation process. A wider evaluation of the BDR currently underway may provide additional understanding behind the mechanisms that underpin alcohol-related harm in the Northern Territory.

Opioid-related ambulance attendances during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Public health measures introduced to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus likely affected opioid supply and demand, as well as the patterns and contexts of opioid use. We measured opioid-related harms during the first 2 years of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, Australia. DESIGN: We adopted an interrupted time series analysis design using interventional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Opioid-related ambulance attendance data between January 2015 and March 2022 were extracted from the National Ambulance Surveillance System. SETTING: Victoria, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (≥15 years) attended to by an ambulance for opioid-related harms. MEASUREMENTS: Monthly opioid-related ambulance attendances for three drug types: heroin, prescription opioids and opioid agonist therapy (OAT) medications. FINDINGS: The monthly rate of heroin-related attendances fell by 26% immediately after the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions. A reduced rate of heroin-related attendances was observed during COVID-19 restrictions, resulting in 2578 averted heroin-related attendances. There was no change in the rate of attendances for extra-medical OAT medications or prescription opioids. CONCLUSIONS: Strict COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, Australia appear to have resulted in a substantial reduction in heroin-related ambulance attendances, perhaps because of border closures and restrictions on movement affecting supply, changing patterns of drug consumption, and efforts to improve access to OAT. Despite policy changes allowing longer OAT prescriptions and an increased number of unsupervised doses, we found no evidence of increased harms related to the extra-medical use of these medications.

Prevalence of Alcohol and Other Drug Use in Patients Presenting to Hospital for Violence-Related Injuries: A Systematic Review.

Substance use is a risk factor for being both a perpetrator and a victim of violence. The aim of this systematic review was to report the prevalence of acute pre-injury substance use in patients with violence-related injuries. Systematic searches were used to identify observational studies that included patients aged ≥15 years presenting to hospital after violence-related injuries and used objective toxicology measures to report prevalence of acute pre-injury substance use. Studies were grouped based on injury cause (any violence-related, assault, firearm, and other penetrating injuries including stab and incised wounds) and substance type (any substance, alcohol only, drugs other than alcohol only), and they were summarized using narrative synthesis and meta-analyses. This review included 28 studies. Alcohol was detected in 13%-66% of any violence-related injuries (five studies), 4%-71% of assaults (13 studies), 21%-45% of firearm injuries (six studies; pooled estimate = 41%, 95% CI: 40%-42%, n = 9,190), and 9%-66% of other penetrating injuries (nine studies; pooled estimate = 60%, 95% CI: 56%-64%, n = 6,950). Drugs other than alcohol were detected in 37% of any violence-related injuries (one study), 39% of firearm injuries (one study), 7%-49% of assaults (five studies), and 5%-66% of penetrating injuries (three studies). The prevalence of any substance varied across injury categories: any violence-related injuries = 76%-77% (three studies), assaults = 40%-73% (six studies), firearms = n/a, other penetrating injuries = 26%-45% (four studies; pooled estimate = 30%, 95% CI: 24%-37%, n = 319).Overall, substance use was frequently detected in patients presenting to hospital for violence-related injuries. Quantification of substance use in violence-related injuries provides a benchmark for harm reduction and injury prevention strategies.

Estimating the impact of the minimum alcohol price on consumers' alcohol expenditure in the Northern Territory, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: From October 2018, the Northern Territory (NT) government introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol of $1.30 per standard drink. We assessed industry claims that the MUP penalised all drinkers by examining the alcohol expenditure of drinkers not targeted by the policy. METHODS: Participants recruited by a market research company using phone sampling (n=766, 15% consent fraction) completed a survey in 2019, post-MUP. Participants reported their drinking patterns and their preferred liquor brand. Estimated annual alcohol expenditure for each participant was calculated by collating the cheapest advertised price per standard drink of their preferred brand pre-and-post-MUP. Participants were grouped as consuming within the Australian drinking guidelines ("moderate") or over them ("heavy"). RESULTS: Based on post-MUP drinking patterns, moderate consumers had an average annual alcohol expenditure of AU$327.66 (CIs=325.61, 329.71) pre-MUP, which increased by AU$3.07 (0.94%) post-MUP. Heavy consumers had an estimated average annual alcohol expenditure of AU$2898.82 (CIs=2877.06, 2920.58) pre-MUP, which increased by AU$37.12 (1.28%). CONCLUSIONS: The MUP policy was associated with an increase of AU$3.07 in alcohol annual expenditure for moderate consumers. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: This article provides evidence that counters the alcohol industry's messaging, enabling an evidence-based discussion in an area dominated by vested interest.

The Impact of Minimum Unit Price on Police-Recorded Alcohol-Related Assault Rates in the Northern Territory, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: From October 1, 2018, the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol of AU$1.30 per standard drink. The MUP was introduced to address the high alcohol consumption rates and harms within the NT. This study aimed to investigate the unique short-term impact of the MUP on alcohol-related assaults across the NT, for the NT overall and separately for four key regions (Darwin and Palmerston, Alice Springs, Katherine, and Tennant Creek); which allowed for the consideration of differences in concurrent alcohol interventions and population (e.g., Alice Springs had Police Auxiliary Liquor Inspectors (PALIs) introduced on October 1, 2018, whereas Darwin and Palmerston only had the MUP introduced in this period). PALIs effectively equate to a police officer being stationed in every off-premise liquor vendor. METHOD: Using data from January 2013 to September 2019, interrupted time series (ITS) analyses assessed the short-term impact of the MUP on the monthly rate of police-recorded alcohol-related assaults. RESULTS: A 14% reduction (B = -3.07 [-5.40, -0.74], p < .010) was found for alcohol-related assault offenses per 10,000 in Darwin/Palmerston. Significant reductions were also noted in Alice Springs and the NT overall, although PALIs are likely to have contributed to these reductions in addition to the MUP. CONCLUSIONS: This short-term impact warrants longer-term follow-up to determine whether the reductions in alcohol-related assaults following the introduction of MUP are maintained, and the extent to which assault rates are influenced by other alcohol-policy interventions in the NT.

Description of Trends over the Week in Alcohol-Related Ambulance Attendance Data.

Alcohol harms are often determined using a proxy measure based on temporal patterns during the week when harms are most likely to occur. This study utilised coded Australian ambulance data from the Victorian arm of the National Ambulance Surveillance System (NASS) to investigate temporal patterns across the week for alcohol-related ambulance attendances in 2019. These patterns were examined by season, regionality, gender, and age group. We found clear temporal peaks: from Friday 6:00 p.m. to Saturday 3:59 a.m. for both alcohol-involved and alcohol-intoxication-related attendance, from Saturday 6:00 p.m. to Sunday 4:59 a.m. for alcohol-involved attendances, and from Saturday 5:00 p.m. to Sunday 4:49 a.m. for alcohol-intoxication-related attendances. However, these temporal trends varied across age groups. Additionally, hours during Thursday and Sunday evenings also demonstrated peaks in attendances. There were no substantive differences between genders. Younger age groups (18-24 and 25-29 years) had a peak of alcohol-related attendances from 7:00 p.m. to 7:59 a.m. on Friday and Saturday nights, whereas the peak in attendances for 50-59 and 60+ years was from 5:00 p.m. to 2:59 a.m. on Friday and Saturday nights. These findings further the understanding of the impacts of alcohol during different times throughout the week, which can guide targeted policy responses regarding alcohol use and health service capacity planning.

Adverse outcomes of GHB use: Analysis of ambulance attendances in metropolitan and regional Victoria.

BACKGROUND: Gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) use and attributable harms have been increasing in Australia, however changes over time, including the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions on harms requiring an ambulance attendance, are unknown. This study utilised a novel population-based surveillance system to identify the types of GHB-related harms between January 2018 and 31 December 2021 in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: A cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of all GHB-related ambulance attendances between January 2018 and 31 December 2021 in Victoria, Australia was undertaken. Paramedic clinical notes and Glasgow Coma Scale scores were used to assess conscious state. Event codes were classified using dispatch information available in the database. Crude rates (per 100,000 population) and descriptive analyses were calculated for metropolitan and regional settings. Adjusted Odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] were used to assess the relationship between GCS severity and polysubstance combinations with GHB. RESULTS: There were 6,836 ambulance attendances for GHB recorded during the study period. A statistically significant increase in GHB-related attendance numbers was observed State-wide in 2019 (n = 1,402, p<0.001) and 2020 (n = 2,622, p<0.001), when comparing year on year attendances. While both numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) of GHB-related attendances were significantly lower in regional areas, significant increases were evident in both metropolitan and regional areas in 2019 and 2020 (both p<0.001). Attendances involving GHB and alcohol had higher odds of a severe GCS score (aOR:1.25; 95%: 1.04-1.49; p<0.019). A high proportion of GHB-attendances involved harms of significant concern including: overdose (56%) and a loss of, or altered state of consciousness (45%). CONCLUSIONS: We observed increases in GHB-related ambulance attendances over time in both metropolitan and regional areas, placing a significant burden on ambulance services. Our study demonstrates the value of using ambulance surveillance to obtain representative data on acute GHB-related harms.

Probabilistic Causal Effect Estimation With Global Neural Network Forecasting Models.

We introduce a novel method to estimate the causal effects of an intervention over multiple treated units by combining the techniques of probabilistic forecasting with global forecasting methods using deep learning (DL) models. Considering the counterfactual and synthetic approach for policy evaluation, we recast the causal effect estimation problem as a counterfactual prediction outcome of the treated units in the absence of the treatment. Nevertheless, in contrast to estimating only the counterfactual time series outcome, our work differs from conventional methods by proposing to estimate the counterfactual time series probability distribution based on the past preintervention set of treated and untreated time series. We rely on time series properties and forecasting methods, with shared parameters, applied to stacked univariate time series for causal identification. This article presents DeepProbCP, a framework for producing accurate quantile probabilistic forecasts for the counterfactual outcome, based on training a global autoregressive recurrent neural network model with conditional quantile functions on a large set of related time series. The output of the proposed method is the counterfactual outcome as the spline-based representation of the counterfactual distribution. We demonstrate how this probabilistic methodology added to the global DL technique to forecast the counterfactual trend and distribution outcomes overcomes many challenges faced by the baseline approaches to the policy evaluation problem. Oftentimes, some target interventions affect only the tails or the variance of the treated units' distribution rather than the mean or median, which is usual for skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. Under this scenario, the classical causal effect models based on counterfactual predictions are not capable of accurately capturing or even seeing policy effects. By means of empirical evaluations of synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our framework delivers more accurate forecasts than the state-of-the-art models, depicting, in which quantiles, the intervention most affected the treated units, unlike the conventional counterfactual inference methods based on nonprobabilistic approaches.

Learning from alcohol (policy) reforms in the Northern Territory (LEARNT): protocol for a mixed-methods study examining the impacts of the banned drinker register.

INTRODUCTION: The Banned Drinker Register (BDR) was reintroduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in September 2017. The BDR is a supply reduction measure and involves placing people who consume alcohol at harmful levels on a register prohibiting the purchase, possession and consumption of alcohol. The current study aims to evaluate the impacts of the reintroduction of the BDR, in the context of other major alcohol policy initiatives introduced across the NT such as Police Auxiliary Liquor Inspectors and a minimum unit price for alcohol of US$1.30 per standard drink. METHODS AND ANALYSES: The Learning from Alcohol (policy) Reforms in the Northern Territory project will use a mixed-methods approach and contain four major components: epidemiological analysis of trends over time (outcomes include health, justice and social welfare data); individual-level data linkage including those on the BDR (outcomes include health and justice data); qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the NT (n≥50); and qualitative interviews among people who are, or were previously, on the BDR, as well as the families and communities connected to those on the BDR (n=150). The impacts of the BDR on epidemiological data will be examined using time series analysis. Linked data will use generalised mixed models to analyse the relationship between outcomes and exposures, utilising appropriate distributions. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approvals have been obtained from NT Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC), Central Australia HREC and Deakin University HREC. In addition to peer-reviewed publications, we will report our findings to key organisational, policy, government and community stakeholders via conferences, briefings and lay summaries.

A systematic narrative review of the effects of alcohol supply reduction policies on children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Children are often exposed to increased rates of secondary harm such as physical harm, motor vehicle incidents, maltreatment, and neglect because of others' or their own alcohol consumption. Alcohol supply reduction, or alcohol control policies, are often enacted to mitigate alcohol harms within the community. The current systematic narrative review aims to synthesise recent literature that examines how alcohol supply reduction policies impact the physical health, mental health, and offending behaviour of children and adolescents. METHODS: Eight databases and grey literature sources were systematically searched, and results were synthesised by policy under evaluation. Twenty-one peer reviewed articles and ten grey literature articles were included after screening of 7,135 original articles. Included articles examined the alcohol control policies of the minimum legal drinking age, price control, and trading restrictions, with the most common outcomes under evaluation being related to the physical health or offending behaviour of adolescents. RESULTS: Overall, the current review identified that the impact of alcohol policy on children and adolescents varied depending on the policy type, policy environment and assessed outcome. Common limitations within the literature include inability to control for covariates, use of alcohol related outcomes unsuitable to children and adolescents, and use of cross-sectional data and regression-discontinuity analysis in lieu of actual policy changes. CONCLUSIONS: The current review highlights the need to further evaluate the impact of actual alcohol-related policy changes on children and adolescents.

Alcohol Accessibility and Family Violence-related Ambulance Attendances.

There is substantial evidence supporting the association between alcohol license density and violent crime. However, the impact of different types of alcohol licenses on intimate partner and family violence is sparse. We explored the associations between access to alcohol outlets, and family and intimate partner violence using paramedic clinical records, given this service is often the first to respond to acute crises. Coded ambulance attendance data from 694 postcodes in Victoria, Australia, from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2018 where alcohol or another drug, mental health or self-harm associated with family or intimate partner violence was indicated were examined. A hybrid model of spatial autoregressive and negative binomial zero-inflated Poisson-based count regression models was used to examine associations with alcohol outlet density and socioeconomic factors. We found that access to a liquor license outlet was significantly associated with family violence-related attendances across all types of outlets, including on-premise (late night) licenses (ß = 1.73, SE: 0.18), restaurant licenses (ß = 0.83, SE: 0.28), and packaged liquor licenses (ß = 0.62, SE: 0.06). Our results demonstrate a significant relationship between alcohol-related harms in the context of family violence and provides evidence of the relationship between alcohol-related family violence in both victims and perpetrators. The findings of this study highlight the need for public health interventions such as licensing policy and town planning changes to reduce these harms by restricting alcohol availability.

Changes in alcohol intoxication-related ambulance attendances during COVID-19: How have government announcements and policies affected ambulance call outs?

BACKGROUND: In response to COVID-19, government-mandated health directives including widespread lockdowns were implemented. Changes in alcohol purchasing were reported, with growing concern that alcohol may be consumed as a way to cope with pandemic-associated stressors. Hitherto, there have been limited studies examining alcohol-related harms, including acute harms requiring an ambulance, and their relationship to government announcements or policies related to COVID-19. METHODS: Analyses were conducted between January and September 2020, with matched months in 2019, using Victorian data from the National Ambulance Surveillance System in Australia. Interrupted time series (ITS) models with odds ratios (OR) were used to map alcohol-related harms as a function of government policies for both metropolitan and regional areas. FINDINGS: A total of 43,003 alcohol intoxication-related ambulance attendances occurred between January 2019 and September 2020. Attendances in the home increased in 2020 by 9% compared to matched 2019 months. The most socioeconomically advantaged cases showed the highest percentage change. ITS models showed decreased odds of alcohol-related attendances at the beginning of each COVID-19 wave in metropolitan (OR:0•77; 95%CI: 0•71-0•83; p<0•001) and regional Victoria (OR: 0•72; 95%CI: 0•67-0•79, p<0•001) separately, and increased odds following the introduction of harsher restrictions in metropolitan Melbourne (OR:1•07; 95%CI:1•01-1•11, p=0•005). A 19% increase in odds of alcohol-related harms was observed at the end of the second wave lockdown period in regional Victoria (OR:1•19; 95%CI: 1•01-1•41, p=0•004). INTERPRETATION: Alcohol-related attendances during COVID-19 restrictions showed a displacement to home settings. Changes in patterns of harms were evident in specific sociodemographic groups, and geographic regions when mapped to government health directives. This study is one of the first to investigate alcohol-related harms at the population level in response to a global pandemic. FUNDING: Commonwealth Department of Health and Victorian Department of Health.

Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-time Economy Monitoring (QUANTEM): Rationale and overview.

This commentary introduces the special section on the outcomes of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-time Economy Monitoring project and outlines the political and policy context of the interventions put in place under the Queensland government's Tackling Alcohol-Fuelled Violence strategy. The development of the strategy was informed by alcohol policy initiatives trialled in other major Australian cities over the past two decades. The articles in this special section examine the impact of the Tackling Alcohol-Fuelled Violence policy stages on alcohol-related harms and local economies across selected entertainment precincts (Safe Night Precincts). A rich array of data were utilised, including administrative health and justice data, data reflective of nightlife trading (i.e. foot traffic data, ID scanner data and live music performances) and street surveys. Findings have implications for research, policy and practice and demonstrate the need for comprehensive evaluations that can accommodate the complexities of modern alcohol policy in Australia.

Summarising the impacts of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-Time Economy (QUANTEM) project.

This closing commentary to the special section presents an overview of the Queensland Alcohol-related violence and Night-Time Economy Monitoring evaluation findings in comparison to those from other jurisdictions where similar interventions have been implemented (such as Sydney and Newcastle), and especially with previous studies that have used similar evaluation methodologies, such as the Dealing with Alcohol and the Night-Time Economy study. Overall, the articles documented promising reductions in alcohol-related harm, building on the existing evidence base for multi-pronged interventions in entertainment districts. Importantly, this is the first comprehensive investigation to also look at impacts on nightlife-related business and findings demonstrated, that there were improvements for many businesses. There are substantial policy implications for Queensland and other jurisdictions (nationally and globally) wanting to reduce late night alcohol-related harm in entertainment districts.

The impact of late-night alcohol restrictions on ambulance call-outs in entertainment precincts.

INTRODUCTION: In July 2016, the Queensland Government introduced the Tackling Alcohol-Fuelled Violence (TAFV) policy to address alcohol-related harm in entertainment precincts [safe night precincts (SNP)]. Additional measures were introduced in February and July 2017. We aim to examine the impact of the policy on Queensland Ambulance Service call-outs in Fortitude Valley, Surfers Paradise, all 15 SNP suburbs combined and statewide. METHODS: Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models were developed to test the impact of TAFV policy stages on monthly number of ambulance call-outs during high alcohol hours (HAH; Friday and Saturday nights, 20:00-05:59) over an 8-year period (July 2011-June 2019). RESULTS: The average number of monthly call-outs in HAH reduced by 26.2% in Fortitude Valley, 21.1% in Surfers Paradise and 4.3% in all 15 SNP suburbs combined. In Fortitude Valley, there was a significant decline in the monthly number of call-outs between 00:00 and 02:59 and across all HAH combined when examining the cumulative effect of the policy stages; and significant declines between 03:00 and 05:59 after each stage and cumulatively. Across the 15 SNP suburbs combined, there was a significant decline in call-outs between 03:00 and 05:59 after the third policy stage (July 2017). There were no significant declines in Surfers Paradise or statewide. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the introduction of the TAFV policy stages in Queensland had a limited effect on ambulance call-outs during HAH. However, there were some notable declines in HAH ambulance call-outs in some of the state's key nightlife suburbs.

The impact of a minimum unit price on wholesale alcohol supply trends in the Northern Territory, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: The Northern Territory (NT) Government introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) of $1.30 per standard drink (10g pure alcohol) explicitly aimed at reducing the consumption of cheap wine products from October 2018. We aimed to assess the impact of the NT MUP on estimates of beverage-specific population-adjusted alcohol consumption using wholesale alcohol supply data. METHODS: Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to examine MUP effects on trends in estimated per capita alcohol consumption (PCAC) for cask wine, total wine and total alcohol, across the NT and in the Darwin/Palmerston region. RESULTS: Significant step decreases were found for cask wine and total wine PCAC in Darwin/Palmerston and across the Northern Territory. PCAC of cask wine decreased by 50.6% in the NT, and by 48.8% in Darwin/Palmerston compared to the prior year. PCAC for other beverages (e.g. beer) were largely unaffected by MUP. Overall, PCAC across the Territory declined, but not in Darwin/Palmerston. CONCLUSION: With minimal implementation costs, the Northern Territory Government's MUP policy successfully targeted and reduced cask wine and total wine consumption. Cask wine, in particular, almost halved in Darwin/Palmerston where the impact of the MUP was able to be determined and considering other interventions. Implications for public health: Implementation of a minimum unit price for retail alcohol sales is a cost-effective way to reduce the consumption of high alcohol content and high-risk products, such as cheap cask wine.

Trajectories in suicide attempt method lethality over a five-year period: Associations with suicide attempt repetition, all-cause, and suicide mortality.

It is not known if there are discernible patterns in method lethality over successive episodes of self-harm and, if so, how these may be differentially associated with risks of self-harm repetition and suicide. Latent trajectory modelling estimated variation in patterns of suicide attempt lethality in 1,719 individuals attended by ambulance services on at least three occasions between 2012 and 2016. Cox regression modelling investigated hazards of suicide attempt repetition, all-cause, and suicide mortality as a function of these patterns. Two distinct trajectories provided optimal fit (BIC: -39,464.92). The first (Low/Moderate to Low/Moderate Lethality group; 92.5%) consisted of those consistently using methods associated with low to moderate potential lethality throughout the observation period. The second (High to Low/Moderate Lethality group; 7.5%) consisted of those who initially used methods with higher potential lethality but who switched to methods characterised by lower lethality. There were no significant differences between groups in the hazards of reattempting suicide (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.41, 95% CI 0.76 to 2.59) or all-cause mortality (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 0.63 to 2.32). However, those assigned to the High to Low/Moderate Lethality trajectory group may be at greater risk of suicide (Sub-Hazard Ratio [SHR] = 2.82, 95% CI 1.16 to 6.86). There may be discernible sub-groups of patients with important differences in clinical treatment needs and suicide risk profiles. These differences should be considered when undertaking psychosocial risk/needs assessments with those presenting to clinical services following self-harm.

Engaging Healthcare Staff and Stakeholders in Healthcare Simulation Modeling to Better Translate Research Into Health Impact: A Systematic Review.

Objective: To identify processes to engage stakeholders in healthcare Simulation Modeling (SM), and the impacts of this engagement on model design, model implementation, and stakeholder participants. To investigate how engagement process may lead to specific impacts. Data Sources: English-language articles on health SM engaging stakeholders in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science and Business Source Complete databases published from inception to February 2020. Study Design: A systematic review of the literature based on a priori protocol and reported according to PRISMA guidelines. Extraction Methods: Eligible articles were SM studies with a health outcome which engaged stakeholders in model design. Data were extracted using a data extraction form adapted to be specific for stakeholder engagement in SM studies. Data were analyzed using summary statistics, deductive and inductive content analysis, and narrative synthesis. Principal Findings: Thirty-two articles met inclusion criteria. Processes used to engage stakeholders in healthcare SM are heterogenous and often based on intuition rather than clear methodological frameworks. These processes most commonly involve stakeholders across multiple SM stages via discussion/dialogue, interviews, workshops and meetings. Key reported impacts of stakeholder engagement included improved model quality/accuracy, implementation, and stakeholder decision-making. However, for all but four studies, these reports represented author perceptions rather than formal evaluations incorporating stakeholder perspectives. Possible process enablers of impact included the use of models as "boundary objects" and structured facilitation via storytelling to promote effective communication and mutual understanding between stakeholders and modelers. Conclusions: There is a large gap in the current literature of formal evaluation of SM stakeholder engagement, and a lack of consensus about the processes required for effective SM stakeholder engagement. The adoption and clear reporting of structured engagement and process evaluation methodologies/frameworks are required to advance the field and produce evidence of impact.