SuPAR is associated with death and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with suspected coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The inflammatory biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is associated with presence and severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) and incident death and myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to validate this finding in a further cohort of patients with suspected CAD. METHODS: Plasma suPAR was available in 1635 patients (73% with CAD) undergoing coronary angiography at a single regional Danish hospital between 2003 and 2005. Patients were followed for adverse cardiovascular outcomes of death, cardiac death and MI over a median follow-up of 4.2 years. RESULTS: In multivariate Cox models, adjusted for established cardiovascular risk factors, the biomarkers C-reactive protein, troponin-T and N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide and the number of stenotic vessels, suPAR was independently associated with the combined endpoint of death/MI, hazard ratio (HR) 1.88; cardiovascular death, HR 2.01; and non-fatal MI, HR 1.53; (all p ≤ .037) per doubling of suPAR concentration. A plasma cutoff for suPAR ≥ 3.5 ng/mL was also significantly associated with death/MI, HR 1.51; p = .005. The C-statistic for the multivariate model predicting death/MI improved from 0.712 to 0.730 (p for difference .008) after inclusion of suPAR. However, suPAR was not associated with presence or extent of CAD (p > .05). CONCLUSION: These results validate previous findings that demonstrate suPAR to be an independent predictor of death/MI in patients with suspected or known CAD, however suPAR was not associated with presence or extent of CAD in our cohort. Probably because suPAR reflects end organ damage rather than the degree of atherosclerosis. BRIEF SUMMARY: We demonstrate that the inflammatory biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor is an independent predictor of death/myocardial infarction in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease, but is not associated with the presence or severity of coronary artery disease.

Prediction of obstructive coronary artery disease and prognosis in patients with suspected stable angina.

AIMS: We hypothesized that the modified Diamond-Forrester (D-F) prediction model overestimates probability of coronary artery disease (CAD). The aim of this study was to update the prediction model based on pre-test information and assess the model's performance in predicting prognosis in an unselected, contemporary population suspected of angina. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 3903 consecutive patients free of CAD and heart failure and suspected of angina, who were referred to a single centre for assessment in 2012-15. Obstructive CAD was defined from invasive angiography as lesion requiring revascularization, >70% stenosis or fractional flow reserve <0.8. Patients were followed (mean follow-up 33 months) for myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, stroke, and death. The updated D-F prediction model overestimated probability considerably: mean pre-test probability was 31.4%, while only 274 (7%) were diagnosed with obstructive CAD. A basic prediction model with age, gender, and symptoms demonstrated good discrimination with C-statistics of 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.88), while a clinical prediction model adding diabetes, family history, and dyslipidaemia slightly improved the C-statistic to 0.88 (0.86-0.90) (P for difference between models <0.0001). Quartiles of probability of CAD from the clinical prediction model provided good diagnostic and prognostic stratification: in the lowest quartiles there were no cases of obstructive CAD and cumulative risk of the composite endpoint was less than 3% at 2 years. CONCLUSION: The pre-test probability model recommended in current ESC guidelines substantially overestimates likelihood of CAD when applied to a contemporary, unselected, all-comer population. We provide an updated prediction model that identifies subgroups with low likelihood of obstructive CAD and good prognosis in which non-invasive testing may safely be deferred.

Low diagnostic yield of non-invasive testing in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: results from a large unselected hospital-based sample.

Aims: Stable angina is the most common presentation of heart disease and has a good prognosis. With declining coronary artery disease (CAD), rates a diagnostic approach balancing costs and benefits is a challenge, particularly in women. This study describes the real-life diagnostic workup in a large hospital to explore whether the diagnostic approach may be improved. Methods and results: We identified 4028 patients free of CAD, referred for and assessed with non-invasive (NIT) or invasive test for stable suspected CAD in 2012-15. In both the sexes, the majority (>85%) presented with chest pain as primary symptom. Women had more non-angina (60.2 vs. 54.5%) and less typical angina (8.2 vs. 11.8%, P < 0.001). Despite a mean pretest probability of 20.9% in women and 45.1% in men (P < 0.001), only 69 (3.1%) women and 190 men (10.4%) were diagnosed with obstructive CAD. In all, 93% underwent a NIT and 80% of these were normal. Among the 1238 men and 1595 women with non-angina or dyspnoea, only 6.1% and 2.9%, respectively, had positive NIT. After multiple adjustments, women remained less likely to have positive NIT [odds ratio (OR) 0.42 95% confidence interval (95% CI 0.32-0.56)] and given a positive test also less likely to have obstructive CAD [OR 0.30 (0.17-0.52)]. The C-statistics for predicting positive NIT was 0.77 (0.72-0.82) in women and 0.77 (0.74-0.80) in men. Conclusion: These data confirm the very low diagnostic yield of non-invasive and invasive assessment of CAD in current clinical practice, particularly in women and in patients with atypical symptoms. Data call for a more rational approach to avoid unnecessary testing.

Elevated estimated arterial age is associated with metabolic syndrome and low-grade inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Arterial age can be estimated from equations relating arterial stiffness to age and blood pressure in large cohorts. We investigated whether estimated arterial age (eAA) was elevated in patients with the metabolic syndrome and/or known cardiovascular disease (CVD), which factors were associated with eAA and whether eAA added prognostic information. METHODS: In 1993, 2366 study participants, 41, 51, 61, and 71 years old, had traditional cardiovascular risk factors and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) measured. Risk groups were identified based on known CVD and components of metabolic syndrome, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation, or Framingham risk score. From age, mean blood pressure, and cfPWV, eAA and estimated cfPWV (ePWV) were calculated. In 2006, the combined cardiovascular endpoint (CEP) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and hospitalization for ischemic heart disease was registered. RESULTS: cfPWV and ePWV increased with ageing and cardiovascular risk (all P < 0.001), but ePWV increased more with ageing than cfPWV. The difference between eAA and chronological age was associated with male sex (ß = 0.14), higher heart rate (ß = 0.16 both P < 0.001), fasting glucose (ß = 0.08) soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (ß = 0.06, both P < 0.01), and known CVD (ß = 0.06, P < 0.05) independently of age, SBP, and heart rate. Independently of Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation, eAA (hazard ratio = 1.20, P < 0.01) predicted CEP, but not as accurately as ePWV (hazard ratio = 1.58, P < 0.001) and cfPWV (hazard ratio = 1.32, P < 0.001) among apparently healthy study participants. CONCLUSION: Elevated eAA was associated with male sex, higher plasma glucose, and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor and known CVD independently of age, SBP, and heart rate.

Estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity has similar predictive value as measured carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity.

BACKGROUND: Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) adds significantly to traditional cardiovascular risk prediction, but is not widely available. Therefore, it would be helpful if cfPWV could be replaced by an estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (ePWV) using age and mean blood pressure, and previously published equations. The aim of this study was to investigate whether ePWV could predict cardiovascular events independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and/or cfPWV. METHOD: cfPWV was measured and ePWV was calculated in 2366 patients from four age groups of the Danish MONICA10 cohort. Additionally, the patients were divided into four cardiovascular risk groups based on Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) or Framingham risk score (FRS). In 2006, the combined cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke and hospitalization for ischemic heart disease was registered. RESULTS: Most results were retested in 1045 hypertensive patients from a Paris cohort. Bland-Altman plot demonstrated a relative difference of -0.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) -15 to 17%] between ePWV and cfPWV. In Cox regression models in apparently healthy patients, ePWV and cfPWV (per SD) added independently to SCORE in prediction of combined endpoint [hazard ratio (95%CI) = 1.38(1.09-1.76) and hazard ratio (95%CI) = 1.18(1.01-1.38)] and to FRS [hazard ratio (95%CI) = 1.33(1.06-1.66) and hazard ratio (95%CI) = 1.16(0.99-1.37)]. If healthy patients with ePWV and/or cfPWV at least 10 m/s were reclassified to a higher SCORE risk category, net reclassification index was 10.8%, P less than 0.01. These results were reproduced in the Paris cohort. CONCLUSION: ePWV predicted major cardiovascular events independently of SCORE, FRS and cfPWV indicating that these traditional risk scores have underestimated the complicated impact of age and blood pressure on arterial stiffness and cardiovascular risk.

Effective risk stratification in patients with moderate cardiovascular risk using albuminuria and atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate whether subclinical vascular damage improved traditional risk prediction, reclassifying individuals with regard to primary prevention. METHODS: Two thousand and fifty-nine healthy individuals aged 41, 51, 61, and 71 years were divided into age, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at least 12 m/s, and carotid atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg/mmol in men/women. The composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and hospitalization for ischemic heart disease was recorded (n = 229). RESULTS: Both elevated UACR (P = 0.002) and atherosclerotic plaques (P < 0.0001) identified a subgroup of moderate SCORE risk patients and high-intermediate FRS risk patients with high risk (P = 0.04 and P = 0.001, respectively), whereas elevated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity did not. Elevated UACR or presence of atherosclerotic plaques reclassified patients from moderate to high SCORE risk [net reclassification improvement of 6.4%; P = 0.025), or from high intermediate to high FRS risk (net reclassification improvement 8.8%; P = 0.002). Assuming primary prevention could reduce the relative cardiovascular risk by 24-27%, on the basis of actual levels of blood pressure and cholesterol, one composite endpoint could be avoided by giving primary prevention to 19 or 24 reclassified patients found by screening 52 or 104 patients with high-intermediate FRS or moderate SCORE risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Elevated UACR and presence of atherosclerotic plaques could in a potentially cost-effective manner identify patients with moderate SCORE risk or high-intermediate FRS with actual high cardiovascular risk who will benefit from primary prevention.

Worsening diastolic function is associated with elevated fasting plasma glucose and increased left ventricular mass in a supra-additive fashion in an elderly, healthy, Swedish population.

AIMS: To examine whether increasing fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were associated with worsening left ventricular (LV) diastolic function, independently of LV mass index (LVMI) in elderly, otherwise healthy subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS: We tested cross-sectional associations between echocardiographically determined averaged E/é ratio/diastolic function, LVMI, cardiovascular risk factors, and FPG categorized as normal (NFG), impaired (IFG), and new-onset diabetes mellitus (DM), in 483 men and 208 women aged 56-79 years without overt cardiovascular disease, who received no cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering drugs and had a preserved LV ejection fraction >50%. Median E/é was significantly higher among subjects with diabetes than those without (8 vs. 7; p = 0.03), as was the prevalence of grade 2 or 3 diastolic dysfunction (25% vs. 16%; p = 0.02). E/é and diastolic function were significantly associated with LVMI (p ≤ 0.002), but not FPG category, on multivariable analysis. However, interaction analyses revealed that increasing LVMI was primarily associated with worsening diastolic function (higher E/é) in subjects with FPG > 6 mmol/L (ß=0.005 for IFG and DM vs. 0.001 for NFG; p = 0.02), whereas increasing systolic blood pressure was primarily associated with worsening diastolic function (higher E/é) in subjects with FPG ≤ 6.9 mmol/L (ß = 0.005 for NFG and 0.003 for IFG vs. -0.001 for DM; p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Diastolic dysfunction was significantly more prevalent among patients with DM than those without. The importance of LVMI increased, but the importance of systolic blood pressure decreased with higher FPG category.

High sensitivity C reactive protein as a prognostic marker in patients with mild to moderate aortic valve stenosis during lipid-lowering treatment: an SEAS substudy.

AIMS: To assess the prognostic importance of high-sensitive C reactive protein (hsCRP) in patients with mild to moderate aortic valve stenosis during placebo or simvastatin/ezetimibe treatment in Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS). METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1620 SEAS patients, we measured lipids and hsCRP at baseline and after 1 year of treatment and registered during 4 years of follow-up major cardiovascular events (MCE) composed of ischaemic cardiovascular events (ICE) and aortic valve-related events (AVE). Simvastatin/ezetimibe reduced low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.49 (2.94 to 4.15) to 1.32 (1.02 to 1.69) vs 3.46 (2.92 to 4.08) to 3.34 (2.81 to 3.92) mmol/L) and hsCRP (2.1 (0.9 to 4.1) to 1.2 (0.6 to 2.4) vs 2.2 (0.9 to 4.9) to 1.8 (0.85 to 4.35) mg/L, all p<0.05) during the first year of treatment. In multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusting for traditional risk factors and baseline hsCRP, ICE was associated with a 1-year increase of hsCRP (HR=1.19 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.25), p<0.001) but not with active treatment (HRTreatment=0.86 (0.67 to 1.13), p=0.28). Patients in the top quartile of baseline hsCRP versus the rest were associated with a higher risk of MCE (HR=1.34(1.09 to 1.64), p=0.02). The prognostic benefit of reduction in hsCRP after 1 year was significantly larger (p<0.01 for interaction) in patients with high versus low baseline hsCRP; hence, a reduction in hsCRP abolished the difference in incidence of MCE between high versus low baseline hsCRP in patients with reduced hsCRP (31.1 vs 31.9%, NS) in contrast to patients with increased hsCRP. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment-associated reduction in ICE was in part related to a reduction in hsCRP but not in lipids. hsCRP reduction was associated with less MCE, especially in patients with high baseline hsCRP. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00092677.

Association between albuminuria, atherosclerotic plaques, elevated pulse wave velocity, age, risk category and prognosis in apparently healthy individuals.

METHOD: Two thousand and fifty-nine healthy individuals aged 41, 51, 61 and 71 years examined in 1993, were divided in age, SCORE and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage (SVD) was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) at least 12 m/s, carotid atherosclerotic plaques or albuminuria defined as urine albumin/creatinine ratio at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg/mmol men/women. In 2006, the composite endpoint (CEP) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke and hospitalization for ischemic heart disease was recorded (n = 229). RESULTS: With increasing age, SCORE or FRS risk group, prevalence of cfPWV at least 12 m/s (5.2, 14.5, 35.3, 53.5% or 4.4, 15.6, 50.9, 66.1% or 4.0, 9.5, 32.1, 56.1%), atherosclerotic plaque (4.0, 19.0, 35.3, 53.5% or 3.5, 16.8, 43.7, 55.9%, or 6.6, 7.6, 9.8, 20.0%) and albuminuria (7.9, 8.7, 11.4, 20.6% or 7.9, 8.2, 16.6, 19.5% or 6.6, 7.6, 9.8, 20.0%) increased, all P < 0.001.CEP was associated with albuminuria in individuals aged 61 or 71 years, with moderate or very high SCORE or intermediate or high FRS (all P < 0.05), with atherosclerotic plaques in individuals aged 41, 51 or 61 years, with moderate SCORE or with high-intermediate or high FRS (all P < 0.01), and with cfPWV at least 12 m/s in individuals aged 51 years (P < 0.001) or high FRS (P < 0.05). Presence of at least one SVD was significantly associated with an increased risk in individuals aged 51 [hazard ratio 2.7 (1.6-4.8)] and 61 years [hazard ratio 2.7 (1.5-4.7)], moderate [hazard ratio 2.4 (1.6-3.7)] or high SCORE risk group [hazard ratio 2.3 (1.2-4.7)] and low-intermediate [hazard ratio 3.3 (1.5-7.0)], high-intermediate [hazard ratio 2.3 (1.5-3.5)] and high FRS risk group [hazard ratio 2.0 (1.4-3.0)]. CONCLUSION: SVD and especially atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 0.73/1.06 mg/mmol (men/women) added prognostic information in individuals aged 51 or 61 years or with moderate or intermediate risk.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: The inflammatory biomarkers soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) independently predict cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prognostic implications of suPAR and CRP combined with Framingham Risk Score (FRS) have not been determined. METHODS: From 1993 to 1994, baseline levels of suPAR and CRP were obtained from 2315 generally healthy Danish individuals (mean [SD] age: 53.9 [10.6] years) who were followed for the composite outcome of ischemic heart disease, stroke and CVD mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 302 events were recorded. After adjusting for FRS, women with suPAR levels in the highest tertile had a 1.74-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-2.81, p=0.027) and men a 2.09-fold (95% CI: 1.37-3.18, p<0.001) increase in risk compared to the lowest tertile. Including suPAR and CRP together resulted in stronger risk prediction with a 3.30-fold (95% CI: 1.36-7.99, p<0.01) increase for women and a 3.53-fold (1.78-7.02, p<0.001) increase for men when both biomarkers were in the highest compared to the lowest tertile. The combined extreme tertiles of suPAR and CRP reallocated individuals predicted to an intermediate 10-year risk of CVD of 10-20% based on FRS, to low (<10%) or high (>20%) risk categories, respectively. This was reflected in a significant improvement of C statistics for men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP in this setting.

CRP and suPAR are differently related to anthropometry and subclinical organ damage.

BACKGROUND: Low-grade inflammation is a marker for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The inflammatory biomarkers C-reactive protein (CRP) and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) independently predict CVD. We tested the hypothesis that these biomarkers reflect different aspects of the inflammation associated with CVD. METHODS: We studied 2273 subjects without CVD. Log-transformed CRP and suPAR were included in general linear and logistic regression models to compare associations with measures of anthropometry and subclinical organ damage (SOD). Owing to interactions on body mass index (BMI) (P<0.0001), the population was stratified by gender and smoking concerning anthropometry. RESULTS: In both genders, independent of smoking, log-CRP was positively associated with BMI (ß: 0.28 to 0.40, P<0.001) and waist circumference (WC) (ß: 0.27 to 0.42, P<0.001). In contrast, in smoking women and men, log-suPAR was negatively associated with BMI and WC (ß: -0.09 to -0.19, P<0.05). In non-smoking women, log-suPAR was positively associated with BMI and WC (ß: 0.14 and 0.16, P<0.001), whereas no associations were found in non-smoking men. No interactions were found on SOD. Adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and physical activity, log-suPAR was associated with an increased urine albumin/creatinine ratio (standardized odds ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)) for highest vs. lower quartiles: 1.36 (1.21-1.52), whereas log-CRP was not (1.10 (0.99-1.22))), and extent of atherosclerosis (standardized proportional odds ratio (95% CI) for carotid plaques 0, 1 ≤ to ≤ 3, >3: 1.31 (1.16-1.47), whereas log-CRP was not (1.00 (0.89-1.11))). CONCLUSIONS: CRP is positively associated with anthropometric measures, whereas suPAR is linked to endothelial dysfunction and atherosclerosis.

Thresholds for pulse wave velocity, urine albumin creatinine ratio and left ventricular mass index using SCORE, Framingham and ESH/ESC risk charts.

AIMS: Markers of subclinical target organ damage (TOD) increase cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. We wanted to establish thresholds for three markers of TOD based on absolute CV risk in different risk chart categories. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a cohort of 1968 healthy patients, we measured urine albumin creatine ratio (UACR), pulse wave velocity (PWV), left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and traditional risk factors. Patients were categorized according to Systemic Coronary Evaluation (SCORE), European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology (ESH/ESC) risk chart and Framingham risk score (FRS) and three corresponding endpoints were recorded: CV death (SCORE-endpoint), a composite of CV death and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke (ESH/ESC-endpoint), and a composite that also included hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and transient cerebral ischemic attack (FRS-endpoint). During a median follow of 12.8 years events totaled 81 SCORE-, 153 ESH/ESC-endpoints and 280 FRS-endpoints. Thresholds for UACR, PWV and LVMI are presented using 10-year risk threshold of more than 5% (SCORE-endpoint), more than 10%(ESH/ESC-endpoint) and more than 20%(FRS-endpoint), which indicated high risk and eligibility for primary prevention. As an example, the threshold was 0.83 mg/mmol, 13.7  m/s and 119  g/m for UACR, PWV and LVMI, respectively, for patients at moderate added risk according to ESH/ESC risk chart. CONCLUSION: Thresholds for UACR, PVW and LVMI based on absolute risk have primarily impact on risk stratification in patients with intermediate risk. The thresholds for PWV and LVMI in patients with moderate risk according to the ESH/ESC risk chart were similar to currently applied thresholds whereas the threshold for UACR was considerable lower than the threshold for microalbuminuria.

Losartan versus atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment reduces cardiovascular events especially well in elderly patients: the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) study.

BACKGROUND: The Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) study has previously demonstrated a beneficial effect of losartan compared to atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment in patients with essential hypertension and left-ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). However, patient age often influences the choice of antihypertensive drugs. Therefore, we investigated the influence of age on the effects of losartan versus atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: A total of 9193 hypertensive patients with LVH aged 45-83 years were followed for a mean of 4.8 years. Blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), Sokolow-Lyon voltage, Cornell voltage-duration product and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) were measured yearly throughout the study. Patients were divided into two age groups according to the median age of 67 years and the effects of losartan versus atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment on the primary composite endpoint (CEP) consisting of cardiovascular death, nonfatal stroke or nonfatal myocardial infarction were investigated. RESULTS: The beneficial effect of losartan versus atenolol-based treatment was greater in the group of patients older than 67 years [hazard ratio 0.79 (0.69-0.91), P = 0.001] compared to the group of patients younger than 67 years [hazard ratio 1.03 (0.82-1.28), P = 0809], P = 0.045 for interaction. The beneficial effects of losartan versus atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment on pulse pressure, HDL-C, UACR, and Cornell and Sokolow-Lyon voltage were not more pronounced in patients older than 67 years compared to patients younger than 67 years. All five risk factors considered as time-varying covariates predicted CEP independently (P < 0.01) with the exception of pulse pressure (P = 0.37) and the interaction between age and treatment on outcome remained significant (P = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: We showed a greater beneficial effect of losartan versus atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment in the group of patients older than 67 years compared to the group of patients younger than 67 years. This difference was not explained by a more pronounced effect of losartan-based treatment on any of the cardiovascular risk factors demonstrated to have independent prognostic importance.

Can ambulatory blood pressure measurements substitute assessment of subclinical cardiovascular damage?

OBJECTIVE: We have previously demonstrated that markers of subclinical organ damage (SOD) improve cardiovascular risk prediction in healthy individuals. We wanted to investigate whether this additive effect of SOD was due to inaccurate blood pressure (BP) measurement or whether ambulatory BP (AMBP) added further to risk prediction. METHODS: In a population cohort of 1385 Danish individuals free of cardiovascular disease and diabetes, we recorded traditional risk factors, AMBP and pulse wave velocity (PWV), urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and carotid atherosclerotic plaques at baseline. A composite cardiovascular endpoint (CEP) consisting of cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke was recorded in national registries. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.8 years, a total of 119 CEPs occurred. In categorical analysis, presence of SOD as well as masked hypertension increased sensitivity of Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation from 73.9 to 89.1% (P < 0.001) and reduced specificity from 60.1 to 41.8% (P < 0.001). In continuous analysis, logUACR [hazard ratio = 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.38), P = 0.009], atherosclerotic plaques [hazard ratio = 1.82 (95% CI 1.21-2.74), P = 0.004] and 24-h SBP [hazard ratio = 1.34 (95% CI 1.12-1.60), P = 0.002] but not logPWV or LVMI predicted CEP in a model with adjustments for age, sex, conventional BP, total cholesterol and smoking. Compared with a risk model using only traditional risk factors, adding PWV, UACR, plaques, LVMI and 24-h SBP increased C-index significantly from 0.76 to 0.79% and produced a net reclassification improvement of 23.3% (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: UACR and plaques predicted cardiovascular events independently of AMBP and improved risk prediction.

Are blood pressure and diabetes additive or synergistic risk factors? Outcome in 8494 subjects randomly recruited from 10 populations.

It remains unknown whether diabetes and high blood pressure (BP) are simply additive risk factors for cardiovascular outcome or whether they act synergistically and potentiate one another. We performed 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring in 8494 subjects (mean age, 54.6 years; 47.0% women; 6.9% diabetic patients) enrolled in prospective population studies in 10 countries. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression, we assessed the additive as opposed to the synergistic effects of BP and diabetes in relation to a composite cardiovascular endpoint by testing the significance of appropriate interaction terms. During 10.6 years (median follow-up), 1066 participants had a cardiovascular complication. Diabetes mellitus as well as the 24-h ambulatory BP were independent and powerful predictors of the composite cardiovascular endpoint. However, there was no synergistic interaction between diabetes and 24-h, daytime, or nighttime, systolic or diastolic ambulatory BP (P for interaction, 0.07P0.97). The only exception was a borderline synergistic effect between diabetes and daytime diastolic BP in relation to the composite cardiovascular endpoint (P=0.04). In diabetic patients, with normotension as the reference group, the adjusted hazard ratios for the cardiovascular endpoint were 1.35 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.87-2.11) for white-coat hypertension, 1.78 (95% CI, 1.22-2.60) for masked hypertension and 2.44 (95% CI, 1.92-3.11) for sustained hypertension. The hazard ratios for non-diabetic subjects were not different from those of diabetic patients (P-values for interaction, 0.09P0.72). In conclusion, in a large international population-based database, both diabetes mellitus and BP contributed equally to the risk of cardiovascular complications without evidence for a synergistic effect.

Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction.

Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii) investigated which and how many markers to measure and (iv) finally discussed whether measuring subclinical organ damage provided benefits beyond risk prediction. In conclusion, more studies and if possible randomized studies are needed to investigate (i) the importance of markers of subclinical organ damage for risk discrimination, calibration and reclassification; and (ii) the economic costs and health benefits associated with measuring markers of subclinical organ damage.

Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE.

AIMS: It is unclear whether subclinical vascular damage adds significantly to Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk stratification in healthy subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 1968 subjects without cardiovascular disease or diabetes not receiving any cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.8-5.9)], PWV > 12 m/s [HR 1.9 (1.1-3.3) for SCORE > or = 5% and 7.3 (3.2-16.1) for SCORE < 5%]. Restricting primary prevention to subjects with SCORE > or = 5% as well as subclinical organ damage, increased specificity of risk prediction from 75 to 81% (P < 0.002), but reduced sensitivity from 72 to 65% (P = 0.4). Broaden primary prevention from subjects with SCORE > or = 5% to include subjects with 1% < or = SCORE < 5% together with subclinical organ damage increased sensitivity from 72 to 89% (P = 0.006), but reduced specificity from 75 to 57% (P < 0.002) and positive predictive value from 11 to 8% (P = 0.07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction.

Urine albumin/creatinine ratio, high sensitivity C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide--three new cardiovascular risk markers--do they improve risk prediction and influence treatment?

In order to prioritize limited health resources in a time of increasing demands optimal cardiovascular risk stratification is essential. We tested the additive prognostic value of 3 relatively new, but established cardiovascular risk markers: N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP), related to hemodynamic cardiovascular risk factors, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), related to metabolic cardiovascular risk factors and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), related to hemodynamic as well as metabolic risk factors. In healthy subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular death lower than 5% based on HeartScore and therefore not eligible for primary prevention, the actual 10-year risk of cardiovascular death exceeded 5% in a small subgroup of subjects with UACR higher than the 95-percentile of approximately 1.6 mg/mmol. Combined use of high UACR or high hsCRP identified a larger subgroup of 16% with high cardiovascular risk in which primary prevention may be advised despite low-moderate cardiovascular risk based on HeartScore. Furthermore, combined use of high UACR or high Nt-proBNP in subjects with known cardiovascular disease or diabetes identified a large subgroup of 48% with extremely high cardiovascular risk who should be referred for specialist care to optimize treatment.

Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population.

OBJECTIVE: The risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) are equally recommended tools for risk stratification. However, ESH risk chart recommends measuring subclinical organ damage, whereas SCORE is based on traditional risk factors. We wanted to compare the predictive performance of the two charts. METHODS: In a Danish population sample of 1344 individuals aged 41, 51, 61 and 71 years without known diabetes, prior stroke or myocardial infarction, not receiving cardiovascular, antidiabetic or lipid-lowering medications and with higher than optimal blood pressure (> or =120/80 mmHg), we measured traditional risk factors and subclinical organ damage. The endpoints were cardiovascular death and a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke (CEP). RESULTS: During the following 12.8 years cardiovascular death and CEP occurred in 71 and 132 patients, respectively. Forty-two percent had unrecognized hypertension. The sizes and characteristics of the populations in the different risk categories of the charts varied considerably as ESH risk chart allocated 368 patients to higher-risk categories than SCORE (P < 0.001). These patients were younger, with higher blood pressure and less frequently male smokers. However, ESH risk chart agreed with ESC guidelines for antihypertensive treatment using SCORE in 89% (634/713) of the patients recommended treatment and produced similar sensitivities (79 vs. 79%), specificities (46 vs. 50%), positive (14 vs. 15%) and negative (95 vs. 96%) predictive values for CEP. CONCLUSION: Although SCORE did not use subclinical organ damage, the guidelines by ESH and ESC using SCORE recommended antihypertensive treatment in almost the same patients.