Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Calculating the risk of future heart failure events and death.

Objective: We sought to develop a clinical model to identify heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) at highest risk for acute HF events or death. Methods and results: Between 2010 and 2019, 422 patients with HFpEF were followed. Acute HF events occurred in 190 patients (45%), including 110 (58%) with recurrent hospitalizations. Those with recurrent events had worse 6-min walk test (p < 0.001), higher brain N-terminal prohormone natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, p < 0.001), and higher New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA, p < 0.001). Overall survival rates in patients with 1 HF event vs > 1 HF events were: at 1-year 91.6 vs. 91.8%, at 3-years 84.7 vs. 68.3% and at 5-years 67.4 vs. 42.7%, respectively (p < 0.04). The Hfpef survivAL hOspitalization (HALO) score revealed best predictive capability for all-cause mortality combining the variables age (p = 0.08), BMI (p = 0.124), NYHA class (p = 0.004), need for diuretic therapy (p = 0.06), left atrial volume index (p = 0.048), systolic pulmonary artery pressure (p = 0.013), NT-proBNP (p = 0.076), and number of prior hospitalizations (p = 0.006). HALO score predicted future HF hospitalizations in an ordinal logistic regression model (OR 3.24, 95% CI: 2.45-4.37, p < 0.001). The score performance was externally validated in 75 HFpEF patients, confirming a strong survival prediction (HR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.30-3.47, p = 0.002). Conclusions: We developed a model to identify HFpEF patients at increased risk of death and HF hospitalization. NYHA class and recurrent HF hospitalizations were the strongest drivers of outcome.

Machine learning-derived electrocardiographic algorithm for the detection of cardiac amyloidosis.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of cardiac amyloidosis (CA) requires advanced imaging techniques. Typical surface ECG patterns have been described, but their diagnostic abilities are limited. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to perform a thorough electrophysiological characterisation of patients with CA and derive an easy-to-use tool for diagnosis. METHODS: We applied electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) to acquire electroanatomical maps in patients with CA and controls. A machine learning approach was then used to decipher the complex data sets obtained and generate a surface ECG-based diagnostic tool. FINDINGS: Areas of low voltage were localised in the basal inferior regions of both ventricles and the remaining right ventricular segments in CA. The earliest epicardial breakthrough of myocardial activation was visualised on the right ventricle. Potential maps revealed an accelerated and diffuse propagation pattern. We correlated the results from ECGI with 12-lead ECG recordings. Ventricular activation correlated best with R-peak timing in leads V1-V3. Epicardial voltage showed a strong positive correlation with R-peak amplitude in the inferior leads II, III and aVF. Respective surface ECG leads showed two characteristic patterns. Ten blinded cardiologists were asked to identify patients with CA by analysing 12-lead ECGs before and after training on the defined ECG patterns. Training led to significant improvements in the detection rate of CA, with an area under the curve of 0.69 before and 0.97 after training. INTERPRETATION: Using a machine learning approach, an ECG-based tool was developed from detailed electroanatomical mapping of patients with CA. The ECG algorithm is simple and has proven helpful to suspect CA without the aid of advanced imaging modalities.

Renin Feedback Is an Independent Predictor of Outcome in HFpEF.

Drugs which interact with the renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) aim to reduce the negative effects of angiotensin (Ang) II. Treatment with these drugs anticipate a compensatory up-regulation of renin; however, it has been shown that there is a large variability in circulating plasma renin (PRA), even in patients with optimal medical therapy in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Our aim was to measure plasma renin activity (PRA-S), its response to RAAS inhibitor (RAASi) therapies and its effects on outcome in patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). For this purpose, 150 HFpEF patients were included into a prospective single-center registry. Equilibrium (eq) angiotensin metabolites were measured from serum samples using mass spectroscopy. PRA-S (eqAng I + eqAng II) was calculated and compared in respect to the primary endpoint defined as all-cause death. PRA-S in patients with RAASi therapy was not significantly higher than in patients without RAASi (p = 0.262). Even after adjusting for confounding factors, PRA-S remained predictive for all-cause death in the multivariable model with a hazard ratio of 2.14 (95%CI 1.20-3.82, p = 0.010). We conclude that high PRA-S is associated with poor prognosis in patients with HFpEF, regardless of RAASi treatment, which could ultimately result in hyperactivated RAAS and consecutive negative effects on the cardiovascular and renal system, leading to poor outcome in patients with HFpEF.

Prognostic implications of pericardial and pleural effusion in patients with cardiac amyloidosis.

BACKGROUND: Pericardial and pleural effusion are common findings in patients with cardiac amyloidosis (CA). It is not known, whether effusions correlate with right ventricular (RV) function in these patients. Furthermore, data on the prognostic significance of pleural and pericardial effusion in CA is scarce. METHODS: Patients with transthyretin (ATTR) and light chain (AL) CA were included in a clinical registry. All patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography at baseline. The presence of pericardial and pleural effusion was determined in every patient. The clinical endpoint was defined as cardiac death or heart failure hospitalization. RESULTS: In total, 143 patients were analysed. Of these, 85 patients were diagnosed with ATTR and 58 patients with AL. Twenty-four patients presented with isolated pericardial effusion and 35 with isolated pleural effusion. In 19 patients, both pericardial and pleural effusion were found and in 65 patients no effusion was present at baseline. The presence of pleural effusion correlated well with poor RV function, measured by global RV free-wall strain (p = 0.007) in patients with AL, but not in ATTR. No such correlation could be found for pericardial effusion in either amyloidosis subtype. Patients with AL presenting with pleural effusion had worse outcomes compared to patients with pericardial effusion alone or no effusion at baseline. In the ATTR group, there was no difference in outcomes according to presence and type of effusion. CONCLUSION: More than 50% of patients with CA presented with pleural and/or pericardial effusions. While pleural effusion was clearly associated with poor RV function in AL, we were not able to detect this association with pericardial effusion.

What Type of Patients Did PARAGON-HF Select? Insights from a Real-World Prospective Cohort of Patients with Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

The PARAGON-HF clinical trial suggested that sacubitril/valsartan may become a treatment option for particular subgroups of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, the proportion of real-world HFpEF patients who are theoretically superimposable with the PARAGON-HF population is yet unknown. The present study was performed to define the proportion of real-world PARAGON-HF-like patients and to describe their clinical characteristics and long-term prognosis in comparison with those who would not meet PARAGON-HF criteria. We systematically applied PARAGON-HF inclusion and exclusion criteria to a total of 427 HFpEF patients who have been participating in a prospective national registry between December 2010 and December 2019. In total, only 170 (39.8%) registry patients were theoretically eligible for PARAGON-HF. Patients not meeting inclusion criteria (41.0%) were less impaired with respect to exercise capacity (median 6-min walk distance: 385 m (IQR: 300-450) versus 323 m (IQR: 240-383); p < 0.001) had lower pulmonary pressures (mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP): 31.2 mmHg, standard deviation (SD): ±10.2 versus 32.8 mmHg, SD: ±9.7; p < 0.001) and better outcomes (log-rank: p < 0.001) as compared to the PARAGON-like cohort. However, patients theoretically excluded from the trial (19.2%) were those with most advanced heart failure symptoms (median 6-min walk test: 252 m (IQR: 165-387); p < 0.001), highest pulmonary pressures (mPAP: 38.2 mmHg, SD: ±12.4; p < 0.001) and worst outcome (log-rank: p = 0.037). We demonstrate here that < 40% of real-world HFpEF patients meet eligibility criteria for PARAGON-HF. We conclude that despite reasons for optimism after PARAGON-HF, a large proportion of HFpEF patients will remain without meaningful treatment options.

Machine Learning Enables Prediction of Cardiac Amyloidosis by Routine Laboratory Parameters: A Proof-of-Concept Study.

(1) Background: Cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is a rare and complex condition with poor prognosis. While novel therapies improve outcomes, many affected individuals remain undiagnosed due to a lack of awareness among clinicians. This study was undertaken to develop an expert-independent machine learning (ML) prediction model for CA relying on routinely determined laboratory parameters. (2) Methods: In a first step, we developed baseline linear models based on logistic regression. In a second step, we used an ML algorithm based on gradient tree boosting to improve our linear prediction model, and to perform non-linear prediction. Then, we compared the performance of all diagnostic algorithms. All prediction models were developed on a training cohort, consisting of patients with proven CA (positive cases, n = 121) and amyloidosis-unrelated heart failure (HF) patients (negative cases, n = 415). Performances of all prediction models were evaluated on a separate prognostic validation cohort with 37 CA-positive and 124 CA-negative patients. (3) Results: Our best model, based on gradient-boosted ensembles of decision trees, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) score of 0.86, with sensitivity and specificity of 89.2% and 78.2%, respectively. The best linear model had an ROC AUC score of 0.75, with sensitivity and specificity of 84.6 and 71.7, respectively. (4) Conclusions: Our work demonstrates that ML makes it possible to utilize basic laboratory parameters to generate a distinct CA-related HF profile compared with CA-unrelated HF patients. This proof-of-concept study opens a potential new avenue in the diagnostic workup of CA and may assist physicians in clinical reasoning.

Hemodynamic Profiles and Their Prognostic Relevance in Cardiac Amyloidosis.

This study sought to characterize cardiac amyloidosis (CA) patients with respect to hemodynamic parameters and asses their prognostic impact in different CA cohorts. Intracardiac and pulmonary arterial pressures (PAPs) are among the strongest predictors of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Despite that, the hemodynamic profiles of patients with CA and their relation to prognosis have rarely been investigated. Invasive hemodynamic, clinical, and laboratory assessment, as well as cardiac magnetic resonance imaging were performed in our CA cohort. A total of 61 patients, 35 (57.4%) with wild-type transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRwt) and 26 (42.6%) with light-chain amyloidosis (AL) were enrolled. ATTRwt patients had lower N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide values and were less frequently in New York Heart Association class ≥ III. Intracardiac and PAPs were elevated, but hemodynamic parameters did not differ between CA groups. Whereas in ATTRwt, the median mean PAP (hazard ratio (HR): 1.130, p = 0.040) and pulmonary vascular resistance (HR: 1.010, p = 0.046) were independent predictors of outcome, no hemodynamic parameter was associated with outcome in the AL group. Cardiac ATTRwt and AL patients feature elevated intracardiac and PAPs and show similar hemodynamic profiles. However, hemodynamic parameters are of greater prognostic relevance in ATTRwt, potentially providing a new therapeutic target.

Patients with Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction Are at Risk of Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

AIMS: Two thirds of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have an indication for oral anticoagulation (OAC) to prevent thromboembolic events. However, evidence regarding the safety of OAC in HFpEF is limited. Therefore, our aim was to describe bleeding events and to find predictors of bleeding in a large HFpEF cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recorded bleeding events in a prospective HFpEF cohort. Out of 328 patients (median age 71 years (interquartile range (IQR) 67-77)), 64.6% (n = 212) were treated with OAC. Of those, 65.1% (n = 138) received vitamin-K-antagonists (VKA) and 34.9% (n = 72) non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs). During a median follow-up time of 42 (IQR 17-63) months, a total of 54 bleeding events occurred. Patients on OAC experienced more bleeding events (n = 49 (23.1%) versus n = 5 (4.3%), p < 0.001). Major drivers of events were gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (n = 18 (36.7%)]. HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly) score (hazard ratios (HR) of 2.15 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-2.79, p < 0.001)) was the strongest independent predictor for overall bleeding. In the subgroup of GI bleeding, mean right atrial pressure (mRAP: HR of 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.25, p = 0.013)) and HAS-BLED score (HR of 1.74 (95% CI 1.15-2.64, p = 0.009)] remained significantly associatiated with bleeding events after adjustment. mRAP provided additional prognostic value beyond the HAS-BLED score with an improvement from 0.63 to 0.71 (95% CI 0.58-0.84, p for comparison 0.032), by C-statistic. This additional prognostic value was confirmed by significant improvements in net reclassification index (61.3%, p = 0.019) and integrated discrimination improvement (3.4%, p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: OAC-treated HFpEF patients are at high risk of GI bleeding. High mRAP as an indicator of advanced stage of disease was predictive for GI bleeding events and provided additional risk stratification information beyond that obtained by HAS-BLED score.