Temporal validation of a multivariable surgical mortality prediction model (NZRisk): a New Zealand national cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical risk calculators (CRCs), such as NZRisk, are used daily by clinicians to guide clinical decisions and explain individual risk to patients. The utility and robustness of these tools depends on the methods used to create the underlying mathematical model, as well as the stability of that model in relation to changing clinical practice and patient populations over time. The later should be checked by temporal validation using external data. Few if any of the clinical prediction models in current clinical use have published temporal validation. Here, we use a large external dataset to temporally validate NZRisk; a perioperative risk prediction model used in the New Zealand population. METHODS: A sample of 1 976 362 adult non-cardiac surgical procedures collected over 15 years from the New Zealand Ministry of Health National Minimum Dataset, was used to temporally validate NZRisk. We divided the dataset into 15 single year cohorts and compared 13 of these to our NZRisk model (2 years used for the model building were excluded). We compared the area under the curve (AUC) value, calibration slope and intercept for each single year cohort, to the same values produced by the data used to create NZRisk, by fitting a random effects meta-regression with each year cohort acting as a separate study point. In addition, we used two-sided t-tests to compare each measure across the cohorts. RESULTS: The AUC values for the 30-day NZRisk model applied to our single year cohorts ranged from 0.918 to 0.940 (NZRisk AUC was 0.921). There were eight statistically different AUC values for the following years 2007-2009, 2016 and 2018-2021. The intercept values ranged from -0.004 to 0.007 and 7 years had statistically significant different intercepts during leave-one-out t-tests; 2007-2010, 2012, 2018 and 2021. The slope values ranged from 0.72 to 1.12 and 7 years had statistically significant different slopes during leave-one-out t-tests; 2010, 2011, 2017, 2018 and 2019-2021. The random effects meta-regression upheld our results related to AUC (0.54 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.99), I2 67.57 (95% CI 40.67 to 88.50), Cochran's Q<0.001) and slope (τ 0.14 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.23), I2 98.61 (95% CI 97.31 to 99.50), Cochran's Q<0.001) between year difference. CONCLUSION: The NZRisk model shows differences in AUC and slope but not intercept values over time. The biggest differences were in the calibration slope. The models maintained excellent discrimination over time as shown by the AUC values. These findings suggest we update our model in the next 5 years. To our knowledge, this is the first temporal validation of a CRC in current use.

Neuroimaging reveals a potential brain-based pre-existing mechanism that confers vulnerability to development of chronic painful chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is a debilitating condition impacting 30% of cancer survivors. This study is the first to explore whether a brain-based vulnerability to chronic sensory CIPN exists. METHODS: This prospective, multicentre cohort study recruited from three sites across Scotland. Brain functional MRI (fMRI) scans (3 Tesla) were carried out on chemotherapy naïve patients at a single fMRI centre in Edinburgh, Scotland. Nociceptive stimuli (with a 256 mN monofilament) were administered during the fMRI. Development of chronic sensory/painful CIPN (CIPN+) was determined based upon European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy 20 changes conducted 9 months after chemotherapy, and imaging data analysed using standard software. RESULTS: Of 30 patients recruited (two lung, nine gynaecological, and 19 colorectal malignancies), data from 20 patients at 9 months after chemotherapy was available for analysis. Twelve were classified as CIPN+ (mean age, 63.2[9.6] yr, 9.6; six female), eight as CIPN- (mean age 62.9 [SD 5.5] yr, four female). In response to punctate stimulation, group contrast analysis showed that CIPN+ compared with CIPN- had robust activity in sensory, motor, attentional, and affective brain regions. An a priori chosen region-of-interest analysis focusing on the periaqueductal grey, an area hypothesised as relevant for developing CIPN+, showed significantly increased responses in CIPN- compared with CIPN+ patients. No difference in subcortical volumes between CIPN+ and CIPN- patients was detected. CONCLUSIONS: Before administration of any chemotherapy or appearance of CIPN symptoms, we observed altered patterns of brain activity in response to nociceptive stimulation in patients who later developed chronic sensory CIPN. This suggests the possibility of a pre-existing vulnerability to developing CIPN centred on brainstem regions of the descending pain modulatory system.

Connected consciousness after tracheal intubation in young adults: an international multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Connected consciousness, assessed by response to command, occurs in at least 5% of general anaesthetic procedures and perhaps more often in young people. Our primary objective was to establish the incidence of connected consciousness after tracheal intubation in young people aged 18-40 yr. The secondary objectives were to assess the nature of these responses, identify relevant risk factors, and determine their relationship to postoperative outcomes. METHODS: This was an international, multicentre prospective cohort study using the isolated forearm technique to assess connected consciousness shortly after tracheal intubation. RESULTS: Of 344 enrolled subjects, 338 completed the study (mean age, 30 [standard deviation, 6.3] yr; 232 [69%] female). Responses after intubation occurred in 37/338 subjects (11%). Females (13%, 31/232) responded more often than males (6%, 6/106). In logistic regression, the risk of responsiveness was increased with female sex (odds ratio [ORadjusted]=2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-7.6; P=0.022) and was decreased with continuous anaesthesia before laryngoscopy (ORadjusted=0.43; 95% CI, 0.20-0.96; P=0.041). Responses were more likely to occur after a command to respond (and not to nonsense, 13 subjects) than after a nonsense statement (and not to command, four subjects, P=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Connected consciousness occured after intubation in 11% of young adults, with females at increased risk. Continuous exposure to anaesthesia between induction of anaesthesia and tracheal intubation should be considered to reduce the incidence of connected consciousness. Further research is required to understand sex-related differences in the risk of connected consciousness.

The use of brain functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine the mechanism of action of gabapentin in managing chronic pelvic pain in women: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To inform feasibility and design of a future randomised controlled trial (RCT) using brain functional MRI (fMRI) to determine the mechanism of action of gabapentin in managing chronic pelvic pain (CPP) in women. DESIGN: Mechanistic study embedded in pilot RCT. SETTING: University Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Twelve women (18-50 years) with CPP and no pelvic pathology (follow-up completed March 2014). INTERVENTION: Oral gabapentin (300-2700 mg) or matched placebo. OUTCOME MEASURES: After 12 weeks of treatment, participants underwent fMRI of the brain (Verio Siemens 3T MRI) during which noxious heat and punctate stimuli were delivered to the pelvis and arm. Outcome measures included pain (visual analogue scale), blood oxygen level dependent signal change and a semi-structured acceptability questionnaire at study completion prior to unblinding. RESULTS: Full datasets were obtained for 11 participants. Following noxious heat to the abdomen, the gabapentin group (GG) had lower pain scores (Mean: 3.8 [SD 2.2]) than the placebo group (PG) (Mean: 5.8 [SD 0.9]). This was also the case for noxious heat to the arm with the GG having lower pain scores (Mean: 2.6 [SD 2.5]) than the PG (Mean: 6.2 [SD 1.1]). Seven out of 12 participants completed the acceptability questionnaire. 71% (five out of seven) described their participation in the fMRI study as positive; the remaining two rated it as a negative experience. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating brain fMRI in a future RCT to determine the mechanism of action of gabapentin in managing CPP in women was feasible and acceptable to most women. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN70960777.

An Exploratory Study into Objective and Reported Characteristics of Neuropathic Pain in Women with Chronic Pelvic Pain.

Chronic pelvic pain (CPP) affects 5.7-26.6% women worldwide. 55% have no obvious pathology and 40% have associated endometriosis. Neuropathic pain (NeP) is pain arising as a consequence of a lesion/disease affecting the somatosensory system. The prevalence of NeP in women with CPP is not known. The diagnosis of NeP is challenging because there is no gold-standard assessment. Questionnaires have been used in the clinical setting to diagnose NeP in other chronic pain conditions and quantitative sensory testing (QST) has been used in a research setting to identify abnormal sensory function. We aimed to determine if women with chronic pelvic pain (CPP) have a neuropathic pain (NeP) component to their painful symptoms and how this is best assessed. We performed an exploratory prospective cohort study of 72 pre-menopausal women with a diagnosis of CPP. They underwent a clinician completed questionnaire (DN4) and completed the S-LANSS and PainDETECT™ questionnaires. Additionally QST testing was performed by a clinician. They also completed a patient acceptability questionnaire. Clinical features of NeP were identified by both questionnaires and QST. Of the women who were NeP positive, 56%, 35% and 26% were identified by the S-LANSS, DN4 and PainDETECT™ respectively. When NeP was identified by questionnaire, the associated laparoscopy findings were similar irrespective of which questionnaire was used. No subject had entirely unchanged QST parameters. There were distinct loss and gain subgroups, as well as mixed alteration in function, but this was not necessarily clinically significant in all patients. 80% of patients were confident that questionnaires could diagnose NeP, and 90% found them easy to complete. Early identification of NeP in women with CPP with a simple questionnaire could facilitate targeted therapy with neuromodulators, which are cheap, readily available, and have good safety profiles. This approach could prevent unnecessary or fertility-compromising surgery and prolonged treatment with hormones.

Anesthesia-induced Suppression of Human Dorsal Anterior Insula Responsivity at Loss of Volitional Behavioral Response.

BACKGROUND: It has been postulated that a small cortical region could be responsible for the loss of behavioral responsiveness (LOBR) during general anesthesia. The authors hypothesize that any brain region demonstrating reduced activation to multisensory external stimuli around LOBR represents a key cortical gate underlying this transition. Furthermore, the authors hypothesize that this localized suppression is associated with breakdown in frontoparietal communication. METHODS: During both simultaneous electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) and electroencephalography data acquisition, 15 healthy volunteers experienced an ultraslow induction with propofol anesthesia while a paradigm of multisensory stimulation (i.e., auditory tones, words, and noxious pain stimuli) was presented. The authors performed separate analyses to identify changes in (1) stimulus-evoked activity, (2) functional connectivity, and (3) frontoparietal synchrony associated with LOBR. RESULTS: By using an FMRI conjunction analysis, the authors demonstrated that stimulus-evoked activity was suppressed in the right dorsal anterior insula cortex (dAIC) to all sensory modalities around LOBR. Furthermore, the authors found that the dAIC had reduced functional connectivity with the frontoparietal regions, specifically the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and inferior parietal lobule, after LOBR. Finally, reductions in the electroencephalography power synchrony between electrodes located in these frontoparietal regions were observed in the same subjects after LOBR. CONCLUSIONS: The authors conclude that the dAIC is a potential cortical gate responsible for LOBR. Suppression of dAIC activity around LOBR was associated with disruption in the frontoparietal networks that was measurable using both electroencephalography synchrony and FMRI connectivity analyses.

Incidence, prevalence, and predictors of chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is a disabling pain condition resulting from chemotherapy for cancer. Severe acute CIPN may require chemotherapy dose reduction or cessation. There is no effective CIPN prevention strategy; treatment of established chronic CIPN is limited, and the prevalence of CIPN is not known. Here we used a systematic review to identify studies reporting the prevalence of CIPN. We searched Embase, Medline, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, PubMed central, Cochrane Library, and Web of Knowledge for relevant references and used random-effects meta-regression to estimate overall prevalence. We assessed study quality using the CONSORT and STROBE guidelines, and we report findings according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidance. We provide a qualitative summary of factors reported to alter the risk of CIPN. We included 31 studies with data from 4179 patients in our analysis. CIPN prevalence was 68.1% (57.7-78.4) when measured in the first month after chemotherapy, 60.0% (36.4-81.6) at 3months and 30.0% (6.4-53.5) at 6months or more. Different chemotherapy drugs were associated with differences in CIPN prevalence, and there was some evidence of publication bias. Genetic risk factors were reported in 4 studies. Clinical risk factors, identified in 4 of 31 studies, included neuropathy at baseline, smoking, abnormal creatinine clearance, and specific sensory changes during chemotherapy. Although CIPN prevalence decreases with time, at 6months 30% of patients continue to suffer from CIPN. Routine CIPN surveillance during post-chemotherapy follow-up is needed. A number of genetic and clinical risk factors were identified that require further study.

Surviving intensive care: a systematic review of healthcare resource use after hospital discharge*.

OBJECTIVES: Intensive care survivors continue to experience significant morbidity following acute hospital discharge, but healthcare costs associated with this ongoing morbidity are poorly described. As the demand for intensive care increases, understanding the magnitude of postacute hospital healthcare costs is of increasing relevance to clinicians and healthcare planners. We undertook a systematic review of the literature reporting major healthcare resource use by intensive care survivors following discharge from the hospital and identified factors associated with increased resource use. DATA SOURCES: Seven electronic databases (1990 to August 2012), conference proceedings, and reference lists were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Studies published in English were included that reported postacute hospital discharge healthcare resource use at the individual level for survivors of intensive care. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers screened abstracts and one abstracted data using standardized templates. Study quality was assessed using recognized appraisal methods specific to economic evaluation, epidemiological studies, and randomized trials. DATA SYNTHESIS: From 4,909 articles, 18 articles representing 14 cohorts fulfilled inclusion criteria. There was substantial variation in methodology, especially the resource categories included in the studies. Following standardization to a common currency and year, variation in cost of resource use was evident (range 2011 US $18,847-$148,454 for year 1 postdischarge). Studies undertaken within the United States reported the highest costs; those in the United Kingdom reported substantially lower costs. Factors associated with increased resource use included increasing age, comorbidities, organ dysfunction score, and previous resource use. CONCLUSIONS: Wide variation in methodological approaches limited study comparability and external validity of findings. We found substantial variation in the cost of resource use, especially among countries. Careful description of patient cohorts and healthcare systems is required to maximize generalizability. We give recommendations for a more standardized approach to improve design and reporting of future studies.