The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population.

Wildlife populations are becoming increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic development. Small and isolated populations often face an elevated risk of extinction, in part due to inbreeding depression. Here, we examine the genomic consequences of urbanization in a caracal (Caracal caracal) population that has become isolated in the Cape Peninsula region of the City of Cape Town, South Africa, and is thought to number ~50 individuals. We document low levels of migration into the population over the past ~75 years, with an estimated rate of 1.3 effective migrants per generation. As a consequence of this isolation and small population size, levels of inbreeding are elevated in the contemporary Cape Peninsula population (mean FROH = 0.20). Inbreeding primarily manifests as long runs of homozygosity >10 Mb, consistent with the effects of isolation due to the rapid recent growth of Cape Town. To explore how reduced migration and elevated inbreeding may impact future population dynamics, we parameterized an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We find that if migration rates do not change in the future, the population is expected to decline, though with a low projected risk of extinction. However, if migration rates decline or anthropogenic mortality rates increase, the potential risk of extinction is greatly elevated. To avert a population decline, we suggest that translocating migrants into the Cape Peninsula to initiate a genetic rescue may be warranted in the near future. Our analysis highlights the utility of genomic datasets coupled with computational simulation models for investigating the influence of gene flow on population viability.

Sustained use of marine subsidies promotes niche expansion in a wild felid.

The use of marine subsidies by terrestrial predators can facilitate substantial transfer of nutrients between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine resource subsidies may have profound effects on predator ecology, influencing population and niche dynamics. Expanding niches of top consumers can impact ecosystem resilience and interspecific interactions, affecting predator-prey dynamics and competition. We investigate the occurrence, importance, and impact of marine resources on trophic ecology and niche dynamics in a highly generalist predator, the caracal (Caracal caracal), on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa. Caracals have flexible diets, feeding across a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic prey. We use carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis of fur samples (n = 75) to understand trophic position and niche shifts in coastal and inland foragers, as well as the implications of a diet rich in marine resources. We found significant differences in isotope signatures between these groups, with higher δ13C (P < 0.05) and δ15N values (P < 0.01) in coastal foragers. Isotope mixing models reveal that these elevated signatures were due to non-terrestrial food subsidies, where approximately a third of coastal foraging caracal diet comprised marine prey. The addition of marine prey species to diet increased both the trophic level and isotope niche size of coastal foraging caracals, with potential impacts on prey populations and competition. Our results suggest that marine prey are an important dietary resource for coastal foraging caracals, where seabirds, including two endangered species, are a major component of their diet. However, there are likely risks associated with these resource benefits, as routine consumption of seabirds is linked with higher pollutant burdens, particularly metals. Increased encounters between this terrestrial predator and seabirds may be a result of increased mainland colonies due to changes in habitat availability and the highly opportunistic and generalist foraging behaviour of a native predator.

Trophic downgrading of an adaptable carnivore in an urbanising landscape.

Urbanisation critically alters wildlife habitat and resource distribution, leading to shifts in trophic dynamics. The loss of apex predators in human-transformed landscapes can result in changes in the ecological roles of the remaining mesocarnivores. Decreased top-down control together with increased bottom-up forcing through greater availability of anthropogenic foods can result in a predation paradox. Understanding these changes is important for conserving ecological function and biodiversity in rapidly urbanising systems. Here, we use stable isotope analysis to provide insight into longer term changes in trophic position, niche width and overlap of an elusive, medium-sized urban adapter, the caracal (Caracal caracal) in and around the city of Cape Town, South Africa. Using fur samples (n = 168) from individuals along a gradient of urbanisation we find that overall caracals have a broad isotopic dietary niche that reflects their large variation in resource use. When accounting for underlying environmental differences, the intensity of anthropogenic pressure, measured using the Human Footprint Index (HFI), explained variation in both food subsidy use (δ13C values) and trophic status (δ15N values). The significantly higher δ13C values (P < 0.01) and lower δ15N values (P < 0.001) of caracals in more urbanised areas suggest that predator subsidy consumption occurs via predictable, anthropogenic resource subsidies to synanthropic prey. These prey species are predominantly primary consumers, resulting in shifts in diet composition towards lower trophic levels. Further, caracals using areas with higher HFI had narrower isotope niches than those in less impacted areas, likely due to their hyperfocus on a few lower trophic level prey species. This pattern of niche contraction in urban areas is retained when accounting for caracal demographics, including sex and age. The removal of apex predators in human-transformed landscapes together with reliable resource availability, including abundant prey, may paradoxically limit the ecological influence of the remaining predators, and bring about a degree of predator trophic downgrading. The dampening of top-down control, and thus ecosystem regulation, likely points to widespread disruption of trophic dynamics in rapidly developing areas globally.

Anthropogenic activities and age class mediate carnivore habitat selection in a human-dominated landscape.

Human activities increasingly challenge wild animal populations by disrupting ecological connectivity and population persistence. Yet, human-modified habitats can provide resources, resulting in selection of disturbed areas by generalist species. To investigate spatial and temporal responses of a generalist carnivore to human disturbance, we investigated habitat selection and diel activity patterns in caracals (Caracal caracal). We GPS-collared 25 adults and subadults in urban and wildland-dominated subregions in Cape Town, South Africa. Selection responses for landscape variables were dependent on subregion, animal age class, and diel period. Contrary to expectations, caracals did not become more nocturnal in urban areas. Caracals increased their selection for proximity to urban areas as the proportion of urban area increased. Differences in habitat selection between urban and wildland caracals suggest that individuals of this generalist species exhibit high behavioral flexibility in response to anthropogenic disturbances that emerge as a function of habitat context.

A heavy burden: Metal exposure across the land-ocean continuum in an adaptable carnivore.

Urbanisation and associated anthropogenic activities release large quantities of toxic metals and metalloids into the environment, where they may bioaccumulate and threaten both wildlife and human health. In highly transformed landscapes, terrestrial carnivores may be at increased risk of exposure through biomagnification. We quantified metallic element and metalloid exposure in blood of caracals (Caracal caracal), an adaptable felid inhabiting the rapidly urbanising, coastal metropole of Cape Town, South Africa. Using redundancy analysis and mixed-effect models, we explored the influence of demography, landscape use, and diet on the concentration of 11 metals and metalloids. Although species-specific toxic thresholds are lacking, arsenic (As) and chromium (Cr) were present at potentially sublethal levels in several individuals. Increased use of human-transformed landscapes, particularly urban areas, roads, and vineyards, was significantly associated with increased exposure to aluminium (Al), cobalt (Co) and lead (Pb). Foraging closer to the coast and within aquatic food webs was associated with increased levels of mercury (Hg), selenium (Se) and arsenic, where regular predation on seabirds and waterbirds likely facilitates transfer of metals from aquatic to terrestrial food webs. Further, several elements were linked to lower haemoglobin levels (chromium, mercury, manganese, and zinc) and elevated levels of infection-fighting cells (mercury and selenium). Our results highlight the importance of anthropogenic activities as major environmental sources of metal contamination in terrestrial wildlife, including exposure across the land-ocean continuum. These findings contribute towards the growing evidence suggesting cities are particularly toxic areas for wildlife. Co-exposure to a suite of metal pollutants may threaten the long-term health and persistence of Cape Town's caracal population in unexpected ways, particularly when interacting with additional known pollutant and pathogen exposure. The caracal is a valuable sentinel for assessing metal exposure and can be used in pollution monitoring programmes to mitigate exposure and promote biodiversity conservation in human-dominated landscapes.

Novel polyomaviruses identified in fecal samples from four carnivore species.

Polyomaviruses are oncogenic viruses that are generally thought to have co-evolved with their hosts. While primate and rodent polyomaviruses are increasingly well-studied, less is known about polyomaviruses that infect other mammals. In an effort to gain insight into polyomaviruses associated with carnivores, we surveyed fecal samples collected in the USA from bobcats (Lynx rufus), pumas (Puma concolor), Canada lynxes (Lynx canadensis), and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). Using a viral metagenomic approach, we identified six novel polyomavirus genomes. Surprisingly, four of the six genomes showed a phylogenetic relationship to polyomaviruses found in prey animals. These included a putative rabbit polyomavirus from a bobcat fecal sample and two possible deer-trophic polyomaviruses from Canada lynx feces. One polyomavirus found in a grizzly bear sample was found to be phylogenetically distant from previously identified polyomaviruses. Further analysis of the grizzly bear fecal sample showed that it contained anelloviruses that are known to infect pigs, suggesting that the bear might have preyed on a wild or domestic pig. Interestingly, a polyomavirus genome identified in a puma fecal sample was found to be closely related both to raccoon polyomavirus 1 and to Lyon-IARC polyomavirus, the latter of which was originally identified in human saliva and skin swab specimens but has since been found in samples from domestic cats (Felis catus).

A circovirus and cycloviruses identified in feces of bobcats (Lynx rufus) in California.

Viruses in the family Circoviridae have small circular single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) genomes. Circoviruses are known to infect a wide variety of animals, with notable disease pathology in psittacine (psittacine beak and feather disease) and porcine (postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome) species. There is still a dearth of research investigating circoviruses associated with felid species. In six fecal samples collected from bobcats (Lynx rufus) in California from 2010 to 2011, we identified six viruses belonging to the genera Circovirus (n = 1) and Cyclovirus (n = 5), using a high-throughput-sequencing-based approach. Of these, the virus in the genus Circovirus represents a new species, as it shares only 54-60% genome-wide sequence identity with the other members of this genus. The five viruses in the genus Cyclovirus represent three new species, sharing <73% genome-wide sequence identity with all other cycloviruses. Three of the cycloviruses belong to a single putative species and were obtained from the feces of three individual bobcats, sharing 95.7-99.9% sequence identity, whereas the other two unique cycloviruses were identified in a single fecal sample. At present, it is unknown whether the identified viruses infect bobcats, their prey, or their gut parasites.

Habitat connectivity and host relatedness influence virus spread across an urbanising landscape in a fragmentation-sensitive carnivore.

Spatially heterogeneous landscape factors such as urbanisation can have substantial effects on the severity and spread of wildlife diseases. However, research linking patterns of pathogen transmission to landscape features remains rare. Using a combination of phylogeographic and machine learning approaches, we tested the influence of landscape and host factors on feline immunodeficiency virus (FIVLru) genetic variation and spread among bobcats (Lynx rufus) sampled from coastal southern California. We found evidence for increased rates of FIVLru lineage spread through areas of higher vegetation density. Furthermore, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variation among FIVLru sequences was associated with host genetic distances and geographic location, with FIVLru genetic discontinuities precisely correlating with known urban barriers to host dispersal. An effect of forest land cover on FIVLru SNP variation was likely attributable to host population structure and differences in forest land cover between different populations. Taken together, these results suggest that the spread of FIVLru is constrained by large-scale urban barriers to host movement. Although urbanisation at fine spatial scales did not appear to directly influence virus transmission or spread, we found evidence that viruses transmit and spread more quickly through areas containing higher proportions of natural habitat. These multiple lines of evidence demonstrate how urbanisation can change patterns of contact-dependent pathogen transmission and provide insights into how continued urban development may influence the incidence and management of wildlife disease.

Plastic ingestion by fishing cats suggests trophic transfer in urban wetlands.

Recent studies have suggested that plastic contamination in some terrestrial and freshwater environments is estimated to be greater than that detected in marine environments. Urban wetlands are prone to plastic pollution but levels of contamination in their wildlife are poorly quantified. We collected 276 fishing cat (Prionailurus viverrinus) scat samples in Colombo, Sri Lanka for a dietary study of urban fishing cats. We used traditional dietary analysis methodology to investigate the contents of the scats by washing, isolating, and identifying prey remains; while sorting prey remains of individual scats, we unexpectedly detected macroscopic (>1 mm) plastic debris in six (2.17%) of the samples. Across all scat samples, we detected low occurrences of microplastics (0.72%), mesoplastics (1.09%) and macroplastics (1.45%). All three plastic types were found in scats containing rodent remains, while meso-, and macroplastics were found in scats with avian remains, and micro- and macroplastics in scats containing freshwater fish remains. Given that felids are obligate generalist carnivores that eat live or recently dead prey and do not consume garbage, our findings suggest that trophic transfer of plastics occurred whereby fishing cats consumed prey contaminated with plastic. Although macroscopic plastic detection was low, our findings suggest that accumulation of plastics is occurring in wetland food webs, and plastic pollution in freshwater terrestrial systems could pose a risk to predators that do not directly consume plastics but inhabit contaminated environments.

Population Genetics of California Gray Foxes Clarify Origins of the Island Fox.

We used mitochondrial sequences and nuclear microsatellites to investigate population structure of gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and the evolutionary origins of the endemic island fox (Urocyon littoralis), which first appeared in the northern Channel Islands <13,000 years ago and in the southern Channel Islands <6000 years ago. It is unclear whether island foxes evolved directly from mainland gray foxes transported to the islands one or more times or from a now-extinct mainland population, already diverged from the gray fox. Our 345 mitochondrial sequences, combined with previous data, confirmed island foxes to be monophyletic, tracing to a most recent common ancestor approximately 85,000 years ago. Our rooted nuclear DNA tree additionally indicated genome-wide monophyly of island foxes relative to western gray foxes, although we detected admixture in northern island foxes from adjacent mainland gray foxes, consistent with some historical gene flow. Southern California gray foxes also bore a genetic signature of admixture and connectivity to a desert population, consistent with partial replacement by a late-Holocene range expansion. Using our outgroup analysis to root previous nuclear sequence-based trees indicated reciprocal monophyly of northern versus southern island foxes. Results were most consistent with island fox origins through multiple introductions from a now-extirpated mainland population.

Poisoned chalice: Use of transformed landscapes associated with increased persistent organic pollutant concentrations and potential immune effects for an adaptable carnivore.

Wildlife around cities bioaccumulate multiple harmful environmental pollutants associated with human activities. Exposure severity can vary based on foraging behaviour and habitat use, which can be examined to elucidate exposure pathways. Carnivores can play vital roles in ecosystem stability but are particularly vulnerable to bioaccumulation of pollutants. Understanding the spatial and dietary predictors of these contaminants can inform pollutant control, and carnivores, at the top of food webs, can act as useful indicator species. We test for exposure to toxic organochlorines (OCs), including dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), in a medium-sized felid, the caracal (Caracal caracal), across the peri-urban and agricultural landscapes of the city of Cape Town, South Africa. Concentrations in both blood (n = 69) and adipose tissue (n = 25) were analysed along with detailed spatial, dietary, demographic, and physiological data to assess OC sources and exposure risk. The analysis revealed widespread exposure of Cape Town's caracals to organochlorines: detection rate was 100% for PCBs and 83% for DDTs in blood, and 100% for both compounds in adipose. Caracals using human-transformed areas, such as vineyards and areas with higher human population and electrical transformer density, as well as wetland areas, had higher organochlorine burdens. These landscapes were also highly selected foraging areas, suggesting caracals are drawn into areas that co-incidentally increase their risk of exposure to these pollutants. Further, biomagnification potential was higher in individuals feeding on higher trophic level prey and on exotic prey. These findings point to bioaccumulation of OC toxicants and widespread exposure across local food webs. Additionally, we report possible physiological effects of exposure, including elevated white blood cell and platelet count, suggesting a degree of immunological response that may increase disease susceptibility. Cape Town's urban fringes likely represent a source of toxic chemicals for wildlife and require focused attention and action to ensure persistence of this adaptable mesocarnivore.

Does the virus cross the road? Viral phylogeographic patterns among bobcat populations reflect a history of urban development.

Urban development has major impacts on connectivity among wildlife populations and is thus likely an important factor shaping pathogen transmission in wildlife. However, most investigations of wildlife diseases in urban areas focus on prevalence and infection risk rather than potential effects of urbanization on transmission itself. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a directly transmitted retrovirus that infects many felid species and can be used as a model for studying pathogen transmission at landscape scales. We investigated phylogenetic relationships among FIV isolates sampled from five bobcat (Lynx rufus) populations in coastal southern California that appear isolated due to major highways and dense urban development. Divergence dates among FIV phylogenetic lineages in several cases reflected historical urban growth and construction of major highways. We found strong FIV phylogeographic structure among three host populations north-west of Los Angeles, largely coincident with host genetic structure. In contrast, relatively little FIV phylogeographic structure existed among two genetically distinct host populations south-east of Los Angeles. Rates of FIV transfer among host populations did not vary significantly, with the lack of phylogenetic structure south-east of Los Angeles unlikely to reflect frequent contemporary transmission among populations. Our results indicate that major barriers to host gene flow can also act as barriers to pathogen spread, suggesting potentially reduced susceptibility of fragmented populations to novel directly transmitted pathogens. Infrequent exchange of FIV among host populations suggests that populations would best be managed as distinct units in the event of a severe disease outbreak. Phylogeographic inference of pathogen transmission is useful for estimating the ability of geographic barriers to constrain disease spread and can provide insights into contemporary and historical drivers of host population connectivity.

Molecular detection of tick-borne pathogens in caracals (Caracal caracal) living in human-modified landscapes of South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Wild carnivores living alongside humans and domestic animals are vulnerable to changes in the infectious disease dynamics in their populations. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence and diversity of selected tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) of veterinary and/or zoonotic concern in wild populations of caracals (Caracal caracal) occurring in human-modified landscapes in South Africa. Using molecular techniques, we screened 57 caracal blood samples for infection by rickettsial bacteria and piroplasms in three regions of South Africa: rangeland in the Central Karoo (n = 27) and Namaqualand (n = 14) as well as the urban edge of the Cape Peninsula (n = 16) of South Africa. To characterise pathogen identity, we sequenced the 18S rRNA and 16S rRNA genes from positive samples and analysed sequences within a phylogenetic framework. We also examine the diversity of potential tick vectors. RESULTS: All individuals tested were infected with at least one tick-borne pathogen. Pathogens included Hepatozoon felis, Babesia felis, Babesia leo and a potentially novel Babesia species. An Anaplasma species previously described in South African domestic dogs was also found in 88% of urban edge caracals. Higher rates of co-infection characterised urban edge caracals (81% vs 15% and 0% in the two rangeland populations), as well as a greater incidence of mixed infections. Host attached tick species include Haemaphysalis elliptica, an important pathogen vector among carnivore hosts. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the occurrence of previously undocumented tick-borne pathogens infecting free-ranging caracals in human-modified landscapes. We identify clear differences in the pathogen profiles among our study populations and discuss the likely health costs to caracals living adjacent to urban areas.

Urbanization reduces genetic connectivity in bobcats (Lynx rufus) at both intra- and interpopulation spatial scales.

Urbanization is a major factor driving habitat fragmentation and connectivity loss in wildlife. However, the impacts of urbanization on connectivity can vary among species and even populations due to differences in local landscape characteristics, and our ability to detect these relationships may depend on the spatial scale at which they are measured. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) are relatively sensitive to urbanization and the status of bobcat populations is an important indicator of connectivity in urban coastal southern California. We genotyped 271 bobcats at 13,520 SNP loci to conduct a replicated landscape resistance analysis in five genetically distinct populations. We tested urban and natural factors potentially influencing individual connectivity in each population separately, as well as study-wide. Overall, landscape genomic effects were most frequently detected at the study-wide spatial scale, with urban land cover (measured as impervious surface) having negative effects and topographic roughness having positive effects on gene flow. The negative effect of urban land cover on connectivity was also evident when populations were analyzed separately despite varying substantially in spatial area and the proportion of urban development, confirming a pervasive impact of urbanization largely independent of spatial scale. The effect of urban development was strongest in one population where stream habitat had been lost to development, suggesting that riparian corridors may help mitigate reduced connectivity in urbanizing areas. Our results demonstrate the importance of replicating landscape genetic analyses across populations and considering how landscape genetic effects may vary with spatial scale and local landscape structure.

High Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in an Urban Caracal (Caracal caracal) Population in South Africa.

We investigated Toxoplasmosis gondii antibody seroprevalence in free-ranging caracals (Caracal caracal) in Cape Town, South Africa, from 2014 to 2017. Seropositivity was 83% (24/29), which is substantially higher than that detected in sympatric feral domestic cat (Felis catus) populations. The impact of this pathogen on local human and wildlife communities may be of concern.

Widespread anticoagulant poison exposure in predators in a rapidly growing South African city.

Anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) are used worldwide to control rodent populations. ARs bioaccumulate across trophic levels and threaten non-target wildlife. We investigated the prevalence of AR exposure in seven predator species in the rapidly developing Greater Cape Town region of South Africa - a mosaic of natural, urban, and agricultural areas within a global biodiversity hotspot. We focused sampling on caracals (Caracal caracal, n = 28) as part of a larger caracal ecology study, but also opportunistically sampled Cape Clawless otters (Aonyx capensis, n = 9), large-spotted genets (Genetta tigrina, n = 4), honey badger (Mellivora capensis, n = 1), water mongoose (Atilax paludinosus, n = 1), small gray mongoose (Galerella pulverulenta, n = 1), and Cape Eagle owl (Bubo capensis, n = 1). We tested livers from all species, and blood from ten caracals, for eight AR compounds to assess prevalence and amount of exposure for each compound. We used generalized linear models to test spatial, demographic, and seasonal risk factors for ten measures of AR exposure in caracals. We detected at least one of the four most toxic AR compounds in six species. Exposure was high for caracals (92%) and all species combined (81%). For caracals, proximity to vineyards was the most important AR exposure risk factor. Vineyards in Cape Town do not use ARs to protect their vines but do host commercial hospitality structures where ARs are used. Vineyards may thus link caracals that forage within vineyards to the rat poisons used in and around their commercial structures. Residue levels were unexpected in large-spotted genets and Cape Clawless otters, suggesting invertebrate vectors. ARs may present a cryptic threat to populations already vulnerable to increasing habitat loss, vehicle collisions, poachers and fire. Targeted mitigation should include a mix of environmentally responsible policies that reduce AR use, particularly in areas near wildlife habitat.

Genome-wide expression reveals multiple systemic effects associated with detection of anticoagulant poisons in bobcats (Lynx rufus).

Anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) are indiscriminate toxicants that threaten nontarget predatory and scavenger species through secondary poisoning. Accumulating evidence suggests that AR exposure may have disruptive sublethal consequences on individuals that can affect fitness. We evaluated AR-related effects on genome-wide expression patterns in a population of bobcats in southern California. We identify differential expression of genes involved in xenobiotic metabolism, endoplasmic reticulum stress response, epithelial integrity and both adaptive and innate immune function. Further, we find that differential expression of immune-related genes may be attributable to AR-related effects on leucocyte differentiation. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented understanding of the sublethal effects of AR exposure on a wild carnivore. These findings highlight potential detrimental effects of ARs on a wide variety of species worldwide that may consume poisoned rodents and indicate the need to investigate gene expression effects of other toxicants added to natural environments by humans.

Urbanization and anticoagulant poisons promote immune dysfunction in bobcats.

Understanding how human activities influence immune response to environmental stressors can support biodiversity conservation across increasingly urbanizing landscapes. We studied a bobcat (Lynx rufus) population in urban southern California that experienced a rapid population decline from 2002-2005 due to notoedric mange. Because anticoagulant rodenticide (AR) exposure was an underlying complication in mange deaths, we aimed to understand sublethal contributions of urbanization and ARs on 65 biochemical markers of immune and organ function. Variance in immunological variables was primarily associated with AR exposure and secondarily with urbanization. Use of urban habitat and AR exposure has pervasive, complex and predictable effects on biochemical markers of immune and organ function in free-ranging bobcats that include impacts on neutrophil, lymphocyte and cytokine populations, total bilirubin and phosphorus. We find evidence of both inflammatory response and immune suppression associated with urban land use and rat poison exposure that could influence susceptibility to opportunistic infections. Consequently, AR exposure may influence mortality and has population-level effects, as previous work in the focal population has revealed substantial mortality caused by mange infection. The secondary effects of anticoagulant exposure may be a worldwide, largely unrecognized problem affecting a variety of vertebrate species in human-dominated environments.

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions.

Interactions between demography, genetics, and landscape connectivity increase extinction probability for a small population of large carnivores in a major metropolitan area.

The extinction vortex is a theoretical model describing the process by which extinction risk is elevated in small, isolated populations owing to interactions between environmental, demographic, and genetic factors. However, empirical demonstrations of these interactions have been elusive. We modelled the dynamics of a small mountain lion population isolated by anthropogenic barriers in greater Los Angeles, California, to evaluate the influence of demographic, genetic, and landscape factors on extinction probability. The population exhibited strong survival and reproduction, and the model predicted stable median population growth and a 15% probability of extinction over 50 years in the absence of inbreeding depression. However, our model also predicted the population will lose 40-57% of its heterozygosity in 50 years. When we reduced demographic parameters proportional to reductions documented in another wild population of mountain lions that experienced inbreeding depression, extinction probability rose to 99.7%. Simulating greater landscape connectivity by increasing immigration to greater than or equal to one migrant per generation appears sufficient to largely maintain genetic diversity and reduce extinction probability. We provide empirical support for the central tenet of the extinction vortex as interactions between genetics and demography greatly increased extinction probability relative to the risk from demographic and environmental stochasticity alone. Our modelling approach realistically integrates demographic and genetic data to provide a comprehensive assessment of factors threatening small populations.