Trajectories of Loneliness During Adolescence Predict Subsequent Symptoms of Depression and Positive Wellbeing.

There is a need to identify the outcomes of changes in loneliness during adolescence, and to consider this within a multidimensional framework of loneliness. This study considered the effects of different trajectories of change in Isolation Loneliness and in Friendship Loneliness upon both positive wellbeing and symptoms of depression. To achieve this, 1782 (43% female; 12.92 years old at the start of the study, SD = 1.60) young people took part in a longitudinal study with four data points across 2 years. Four Isolation Loneliness trajectories and five Friendship Loneliness trajectories were identified. Youth who experienced low levels of Isolation Loneliness that subsequently increased appear to be at particular risk for poor outcomes. Similarly, initially high levels of Friendship Loneliness that decreased rapidly, or which began at a low level and only increased marginally, seem to also be a risk. Loneliness is a multi-dimensional construct and its development during adolescence impacts upon young people's depressive symptomatology and positive mental wellbeing.

Excess Deaths Associated with Rheumatic Heart Disease, Australia, 2013-2017.

During 2013-2017, the mortality rate ratio for rheumatic heart disease among Indigenous versus non-Indigenous persons in Australia was 15.9, reflecting health inequity. Using excess mortality methods, we found that deaths associated with rheumatic heart disease among Indigenous Australians were probably substantially undercounted, affecting accuracy of calculations based solely on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

Rheumatic heart disease mortality in Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians between 2010 and 2017.

OBJECTIVES: To generate contemporary age-specific mortality rates for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians aged <65 years who died from rheumatic heart disease (RHD) between 2013 and 2017, and to ascertain the underlying causes of death (COD) of a prevalent RHD cohort aged <65 years who died during the same period. METHODS: For this retrospective, cross-sectional epidemiological study, Australian RHD deaths for 2013-2017 were investigated by first, mortality rates generated using Australian Bureau of Statistics death registrations where RHD was a coded COD, and second COD analyses of death records for a prevalent RHD cohort identified from RHD register and hospitalisations. All analyses were undertaken by Indigenous status and age group (0-24, 25-44, 45-64 years). RESULTS: Age-specific RHD mortality rates per 100 000 were 0.32, 2.63 and 7.41 among Indigenous 0-24, 25-44 and 45-64 year olds, respectively, and the age-standardised mortality ratio (Indigenous vs non-Indigenous 0-64 year olds) was 14.0. Within the prevalent cohort who died (n=726), RHD was the underlying COD in 15.0% of all deaths, increasing to 24.6% when RHD was included as associated COD. However, other cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular conditions were the underlying COD in 34% and 43% respectively. CONCLUSION: Premature mortality in people with RHD aged <65 years has approximately halved in Australia since 1997-2005, most notably among younger Indigenous people. Mortality rates based solely on underlying COD potentially underestimates true RHD mortality burden. Further strategies are required to reduce the high Indigenous to non-Indigenous mortality rate disparity, in addition to optimising major comorbidities that contribute to non-RHD mortality.

Colorectal cancer treatment in people with severe mental illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: People with severe mental illness (SMI) have a greater risk of dying from colorectal cancer (CRC), even though the incidence is lower or similar to that of the general population This pattern is unlikely to be solely explained by lifestyle factors, while the role of differences in cancer healthcare access or treatment is uncertain. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis on access to guideline-appropriate care following CRC diagnosis in people with SMI including the receipt of surgery, chemo- or radiotherapy. We searched for full-text articles indexed by PubMed, EMBASE, PsychInfo and CINAHL that compared CRC treatment in those with and without pre-existing SMI (schizophrenia, schizoaffective, bipolar and major affective disorders). Designs included cohort or population-based case-control designs. RESULTS: There were ten studies (sample size = 3501-591 561). People with SMI had a reduced likelihood of surgery (RR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.92-0.97; p = 0.005; k = 4). Meta-analyses were not possible for the other outcomes but in results from individual studies, people with SMI were less likely to receive radiotherapy, chemotherapy or sphincter-sparing procedures. The disparity in care was greatest for those who had been psychiatric inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: People with SMI, including both psychotic and affective disorders, receive less CRC care than the general population. This might contribute to higher case-fatality rates for an illness where the incidence is no higher than that of the general population. The reasons for this require further investigation, as does the extent to which differences in treatment access or quality contribute to excess CRC mortality in people with SMI.

Long-term outcomes following rheumatic heart disease diagnosis in Australia.

Aims : Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a major contributor to cardiac morbidity and mortality globally. This study aims to estimate the probability and predictors of progressing to non-fatal cardiovascular complications and death in young Australians after their first RHD diagnosis. Methods and results : This retrospective cohort study used linked RHD register, hospital, and death data from five Australian states and territories (covering 70% of the whole population and 86% of the Indigenous population). Progression from uncomplicated RHD to all-cause death and non-fatal cardiovascular complications (surgical intervention, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, infective endocarditis, and stroke) was estimated for people aged <35 years with first-ever RHD diagnosis between 2010 and 2018, identified from register and hospital data. The study cohort comprised 1718 initially uncomplicated RHD cases (84.6% Indigenous; 10.9% migrant; 63.2% women; 40.3% aged 5-14 years; 76.4% non-metropolitan). The composite outcome of death/cardiovascular complication was experienced by 23.3% (95% confidence interval: 19.5-26.9) within 8 years. Older age and metropolitan residence were independent positive predictors of the composite outcome; history of acute rheumatic fever was a negative predictor. Population group (Indigenous/migrant/other Australian) and sex were not predictive of outcome after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion : This study provides the most definitive and contemporary estimates of progression to major cardiovascular complication or death in young Australians with RHD. Despite access to the publically funded universal Australian healthcare system, one-fifth of initially uncomplicated RHD cases will experience one of the major complications of RHD within 8 years supporting the need for programmes to eradicate RHD.

Ending rheumatic heart disease in Australia: the evidence for a new approach.

■The RHD Endgame Strategy: the blueprint to eliminate rheumatic heart disease in Australia by 2031 (the Endgame Strategy) is the blueprint to eliminate rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Australia by 2031. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people live with one of the highest per capita burdens of RHD in the world. ■The Endgame Strategy synthesises information compiled across the 5-year lifespan of the End Rheumatic Heart Disease Centre of Research Excellence (END RHD CRE). Data and results from priority research projects across several disciplines of research complemented literature reviews, systematic reviews and narrative reviews. Further, the experiences of those working in acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and RHD control and those living with RHD to provide the technical evidence for eliminating RHD in Australia were included. ■The lived experience of RHD is a critical factor in health outcomes. All future strategies to address ARF and RHD must prioritise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people's knowledge, perspectives and experiences and develop co-designed approaches to RHD elimination. The environmental, economic, social and political context of RHD in Australia is inexorably linked to ending the disease. ■Statistical modelling undertaken in 2019 looked at the economic and health impacts of implementing an indicative strategy to eliminate RHD by 2031. Beginning in 2019, the strategy would include: reducing household crowding, improving hygiene infrastructure, strengthening primary health care and improving secondary prophylaxis. It was estimated that the strategy would prevent 663 deaths and save the health care system $188 million. ■The Endgame Strategy provides the evidence for a new approach to RHD elimination. It proposes an implementation framework of five priority action areas. These focus on strategies to prevent new cases of ARF and RHD early in the causal pathway from Streptococcus pyogenes exposure to ARF, and strategies that address the critical systems and structural changes needed to support a comprehensive RHD elimination strategy.

Financial Interventions to Increase Vaccine Coverage.

BACKGROUND: Recent vaccine mandates in Australia, as in other high income settings, have sought to change the behavior of parents, including those who would otherwise access nonmedical exemptions. Since 2014, Australian state governments have introduced and progressively tightened policies restricting the access of unvaccinated children to early education and child care. In 2016, the Federal Government removed financial entitlements and subsidies from nonvaccinating families. We sought to ascertain the impact of these policies on vaccine coverage rates by state, and also to consider their impact on communities with high numbers of registered refusers. METHODS: Interrupted time series models were fitted by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average framework to test for changes in trend in vaccination rates following implementation of government policies. RESULTS: Australian vaccine coverage rates were rising before the vaccine mandates and continued to do so subsequently, with no statistically significant changes to coverage rates associated with the interventions. The exception was New South Wales, where vaccine coverage rates were static before the policy intervention, but were increasing at an annual rate of 1.25% after (P < .001). The impact of the policies was indistinguishable between communities with high, medium and low numbers of registered vaccine refusers. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, we show that childhood vaccine coverage continued on its positive trajectory without any conclusive evidence of impact of mandatory policies. Overseas policymakers looking to increase coverage rates would be well-advised to examine the contribution of pre-existing and parallel nonmandatory interventions employed by Australian governments to the country's enhanced coverage.

Contemporary Incidence and Prevalence of Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease in Australia Using Linked Data: The Case for Policy Change.

Background In 2018, the World Health Organization prioritized control of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), including disease surveillance. We developed strategies for estimating contemporary ARF/RHD incidence and prevalence in Australia (2015-2017) by age group, sex, and region for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians based on innovative, direct methods. Methods and Results This population-based study used linked administrative data from 5 Australian jurisdictions. A cohort of ARF (age <45 years) and RHD cases (<55 years) were sourced from jurisdictional ARF/RHD registers, surgical registries, and inpatient data. We developed robust methods for epidemiologic case ascertainment for ARF/RHD. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence and prevalence. Age-standardized rate and prevalence ratios compared disease burden between demographic subgroups. Of 1425 ARF episodes, 72.1% were first-ever, 88.8% in Indigenous people and 78.6% were aged <25 years. The age-standardized ARF first-ever rates were 71.9 and 0.60/100 000 for Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, respectively (age-standardized rate ratio=124.1; 95% CI, 105.2-146.3). The 2017 Global Burden of Disease RHD prevalent counts for Australia (<55 years) underestimate the burden (1518 versus 6156 Australia-wide extrapolated from our study). The Indigenous age-standardized RHD prevalence (666.3/100 000) was 61.4 times higher (95% CI, 59.3-63.5) than non-Indigenous (10.9/100 000). Female RHD prevalence was double that in males. Regions in northern Australia had the highest rates. Conclusions This study provides the most accurate estimates to date of Australian ARF and RHD rates. The high Indigenous burden necessitates urgent government action. Findings suggest RHD may be underestimated in many high-resource settings. The linked data methods outlined here have potential for global applicability.

Case Ascertainment on Australian Registers for Acute Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease.

In Australia, disease registers for acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) were previously established to facilitate disease surveillance and control, yet little is known about the extent of case-ascertainment. We compared ARF/RHD case ascertainment based on Australian ARF/RHD register records with administrative hospital data from the Northern Territory (NT), South Australia (SA), Queensland (QLD) and Western Australia (WA) for cases 3-59 years of age. Agreement across data sources was compared for persons with an ARF episode or first-ever RHD diagnosis. ARF/RHD registers from the different jurisdictions were missing 26% of Indigenous hospitalised ARF/RHD cases overall (ranging 17-40% by jurisdiction) and 10% of non-Indigenous hospitalised ARF/RHD cases (3-28%). The proportion of hospitalised RHD cases (36%) was half the proportion of hospitalised ARF cases (70%) notified to the ARF/RHD registers. The registers were found to capture few RHD cases in metropolitan areas (SA Metro: 13%, QLD Metro: 35%, WA Metro: 14%). Indigenous status, older age, comorbidities, drug/alcohol abuse and disease severity were predictors of cases appearing in the hospital data only (p < 0.05); sex was not a determinant. This analysis confirms that there are biases associated with the epidemiological analysis of single sources of case ascertainment for ARF/RHD using Australian data.

The End Rheumatic Heart Disease in Australia Study of Epidemiology (ERASE) Project: data sources, case ascertainment and cohort profile.

PURPOSE: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) persist as public health issues in developing countries and among disadvantaged communities in high-income countries, with rates in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia among the highest recorded globally. A robust evidence base is critical to support policy recommendations for eliminating RHD, but available data are fragmented and incomplete. The End RHD in Australia: Study of Epidemiology (ERASE) Project aims to provide a comprehensive database of ARF and RHD cases in Australia as a basis for improved monitoring and to assess prevention and treatment strategies. The objective of this paper is to describe the process for case ascertainment and profile of the study cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The ERASE database has been built using linked administrative data from RHD registers, inpatient hospitalizations, and death registry data from 2001 to 2017 (mid-year). Additional linked datasets are available. The longitudinal nature of the data is harnessed to estimate onset and assess the progression of the disease. To accommodate systematic limitations in diagnostic coding for RHD, hospital-only identified RHD has been determined using a purposefully developed prediction model. RESULTS: Of 132,053 patients for whom data were received, 42,064 are considered true cases of ARF or RHD in the study period. The patient population under 60 years in the compiled dataset is more than double the number of patients identified in ARF/RHD registers (12,907 versus 5049). Non-registered patients were more likely to be older, non-Indigenous, and at a later disease stage. CONCLUSION: The ERASE Project has created an unprecedented linked administrative database on ARF and RHD in Australia. These data provide a critical baseline for efforts to end ARF/RHD in Australia. The methodological work conducted to compile this database resulted in significant improvements in the robustness of epidemiological estimates and entails valuable lessons for ARF/RHD research globally.