Time series analysis in environmental epidemiology: challenges and considerations.

In environmental epidemiology, time series analyses represent a widely used statistical tool. However, though being commonly used, there is soften confusion regarding the specific requirements, such as which link function might be most appropriate, when or how to control for seasonality or how to account for lags. The present overview draws from experiences in other disciplines and discusses the proper execution of time series analyses based on considerations that are relevant in environmental epidemiology. Time series analysis in environmental epidemiology focuses on acute events caused by short-term changes in exposure. These exposures should be fairly wide-spread affecting a large number of persons, usually all inhabitants of a political entity. Pollutants in air or drinking water as well as meteorological factors serve as typical examples. Despite the many time series analyses performed world-wide, some health effects that would lend themselves to that approach are still under-explored. This would include also some neurological and psychiatric endpoints. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2023;36(6):704-16.

Self-reported changes in alcohol and tobacco use during COVID-19: findings from the eastern part of WHO European Region.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic might impact substance use behaviours around the globe. In this study, we investigate changes in alcohol and tobacco use in the second half of 2020 in countries of the eastern part of the WHO European Region. METHODS: Self-reported changes in alcohol and tobacco use among 11 295 adults from 18 countries in the eastern part of the WHO European Region were collected between August 2020 and January 2021. The non-probabilistic sample was weighted for age, gender and education. For each country, proportions of respondents reporting a decrease, no change or increase in substance use over the past 3 months were examined, and multinomial regression models were used to test associations with age, gender and past-year alcohol use. RESULTS: In most countries, about half of the respondents indicating past-year alcohol or tobacco use reported no change in their substance use. Of those alcohol users who reported changes in their alcohol use, a larger proportion reported a decrease than an increase in most countries. The opposite was true for tobacco use. Women, young adults and past-year harmful alcohol users were identified as being more likely to change their substance use behaviour. CONCLUSION: We found diverging overall trends for alcohol and tobacco use in the second half of 2020. The patterns of change vary according to age, gender and past-year substance use. Individuals at risk to increase their substance use during the COVID-19 pandemic require most policy considerations.