ABSTRACT
To characterize the epidemiological properties of the B.1.526 SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest, here we utilized nine epidemiological and population datasets and model-inference methods to reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in New York City, where B.1.526 emerged. We estimated that B.1.526 had a moderate increase (15-25%) in transmissibility and could escape immunity in 0-10% of previously infected individuals. In addition, B.1.526 substantially increased the infection-fatality risk (IFR) among adults 65 or older by >60% during Nov 2020 - Apr 2021, compared to baseline risk estimated for preexisting variants. Overall, findings suggest that new variants like B.1.526 likely spread in the population weeks prior to detection and that partial immune escape (e.g., resistance to therapeutic antibodies) could offset prior medical advances and increase IFR. Early preparedness for and close monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants, their epidemiological characteristics, and disease severity are thus crucial to COVID-19 response as it remains a global public health threat.
