Novel breath biomarkers identification for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhosis using ML tools and GCMS.

According to WHO 2019, Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth highest cause of cancer death worldwide. More precise diagnostic models are needed to enhance early HCC and cirrhosis quick diagnosis, treatment, and survival. Breath biomarkers known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled air can be used to make rapid, precise, and painless diagnoses. Gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GCMS) are utilized to diagnose HCC and cirrhosis VOCs. In this investigation, metabolically generated VOCs in breath samples (n = 35) of HCC, (n = 35) cirrhotic, and (n = 30) controls were detected via GCMS and SPME. Moreover, this study also aims to identify diagnostic VOCs for distinction among HCC and cirrhosis liver conditions, which are most closely related, and cause misleading during diagnosis. However, using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to quantify volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is time-consuming and error-prone since it requires an expert. To verify GC-MS data analysis, we present an in-house R-based array of machine learning models that applies deep learning pattern recognition to automatically discover VOCs from raw data, without human intervention. All-machine learning diagnostic model offers 80% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and 95% accuracy, with an AUC of 0.9586. Our results demonstrated the validity and utility of GCMS-SMPE in combination with innovative ML models for early detection of HCC and cirrhosis-specific VOCs considered as potential diagnostic breath biomarkers and showed differentiation among HCC and cirrhosis. With these useful insights, we can build handheld e-nose sensors to detect HCC and cirrhosis through breath analysis and this unique approach can help in diagnosis by reducing integration time and costs without compromising accuracy or consistency.

Monthly drought prediction based on ensemble models.

Drought is a natural hazard, which is a result of a prolonged shortage of precipitation, high temperature and change in the weather pattern. Drought harms society, the economy and the natural environment, but it is difficult to identify and characterize. Many areas of Pakistan have suffered severe droughts during the last three decades due to changes in the weather pattern. A drought analysis with the incorporation of climate information has not yet been undertaken in this study region. Here, we propose an ensemble approach for monthly drought prediction and to define and examine wet/dry events. Initially, the drought events were identified by the short term Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3). Drought is predicted based on three ensemble models i.e., Equal Ensemble Drought Prediction (EEDP), Weighted Ensemble Drought Prediction (WEDP) and the Conditional Ensemble Drought Prediction (CEDP) model. Besides, two weighting procedures are used for distributing weights in the WEDP model, such as Traditional Weighting (TW) and the Weighted Bootstrap Resampling (WBR) procedure. Four copula families (i.e., Frank, Clayton, Gumbel and Joe) are used to explain the dependency relation between climate indices and precipitation in the CEDP model. Among all four copula families, the Joe copula has been found suitable for most of the times. The CEDP model provides better results in terms of accuracy and uncertainty as compared to other ensemble models for all meteorological stations. The performance of the CEDP model indicates that the climate indices are correlated with a weather pattern of four meteorological stations. Moreover, the percentage occurrence of extreme drought events that have appeared in the Multan, Bahawalpur, Barkhan and Khanpur are 1.44%, 0.57%, 2.59% and 1.71%, respectively, whereas the percentage occurrence of extremely wet events are 2.3%, 1.72%, 0.86% and 2.86%, respectively. The understanding of drought pattern by including climate information can contribute to the knowledge of future agriculture and water resource management.

Evaluation of wet and dry event's trend and instability based on the meteorological drought index.

A temporal imbalance in the water availability, which is consistently below average or more than average rainfall, can lead to extremely dry or wet conditions. This impacts on agricultural yields, water resources and human activities. Weather instabilities and trends of wet/dry events have not yet been explored in Pakistan. In this study, we have two-fold objectives: (1) evaluate the weather instabilities, and (2) the trend of dry/wet events of selected stations of Pakistan. To observe weather instabilities, we used Mean Marginal Hilbert Spectrum (MMHS) and Continuous Wavelet Power Spectrum (CWPS) as meteorological series are mostly non-linear and non-stationary. We used Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for the analysis of temporal characteristics of dry/wet events. We found that all stations are facing severe weather instabilities during the short period of 5 and 10 months using MMHS method and CWPS has shown the weather instabilities during 4 to 32 months of periodicity for all stations. Ultimately, the achieved short-term weather instabilities indicated by MMHS is consistent with CWPS. In summary, these findings might be useful for water resource management and policymakers.