An Empirical Mode Decomposition Fuzzy Forecast Model for COVID-19.

At present, the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is ravaging the world, bringing great impact on people's life safety and health as well as the healthy development of economy and society, so the research on the prediction of the development trend of the epidemic is crucial. In this paper, we focus on the prevention and control of epidemic using the relevant technologies in the field of artificial intelligence and signal analysis. With the unknown principle of epidemic transmission, we first smooth out the complex and variable epidemic data through the empirical mode decomposition model to obtain the change trends of epidemic data at different time scales. On this basis, the change trends under different time scales are trained using an extreme learning machine to obtain the corresponding prediction values, and finally the epidemic prediction results are obtained by fitting through Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System. The experimental results show that the algorithm has good learning ability, especially in the prediction of time-series sequences can guarantee the accuracy rate while having low time complexity. Therefore, this paper not only plays a theoretical support for epidemic prevention and control, but also plays an important role in the construction of public emergency health system in the long run.

[Efficacy observation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease due to lung and kidney deficiency treated with acupoint-catgut-embedding therapy combined western medication].

OBJECTIVE: To observe the clinical efficacy of acupoint-catgut-embedding therapy combined conventional western medication on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at stable stage due to lung and kidney deficiency. METHODS: The cases were randomized into observation group and control group, 30 cases in each one. In control group, the conventional western medication was administered. In observation group, on the basis of conventional western medication, the catgut-embedding therapy was applied at Dingchuan (EX-B 1), Feishu (BL 13), Shenshu (BL 23), Fenglong (ST 40) and Zusanli (ST 36). The total attack frequency of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), the attack frequency of AECOPD at moderate or above moderate stage and TCM syndrome score were compared before treatment and 6 months after treatment in two groups. RESULTS: The total effective rate was 93.3% (28/30) in observation group and was 90.0% (27/30) in control group, indicating equivalent efficacy between two groups. 6 months after treatment, in two groups, the total attack frequency of AECOPD and the attack frequency of AECOPD at moderate or above moderate stage were reduced remarkably as compared with those before treatment (P < 0.01, P < 0.05). The total attack frequency of AECOPD in observation group was reduced remarkably as compared with that in control group (P < 0.05). The scores of cough, expectoration and chest oppression as well as the total score of TCM syndrome were reduced remarkably after treatment in observation group (all P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Integrated therapy of acupoint-catgut-embedding and conventional medication has similar efficacy as simple medication. But, the combination of acupoint-catgut-embedding therapy and western medication can reduce the attack frequency of AECOPD and improve in cough, chest oppression and other symptoms in patients with COPD at stable stage effectively.