Population collapse dynamics in Acropora downingi, an Arabian/Persian Gulf ecosystem-engineering coral, linked to rising temperature.

As in the tropical Atlantic, Acropora populations in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf plummeted within two decades after having been ecosystem engineers on most wave-exposed reefs since the Pleistocene. Since 1996/1998 live coral cover in the Gulf declined by over 90% in many areas, primarily due to bleaching and diseases caused by rising temperatures. In the formerly dominant table-coral species A. downingi, population dynamics corresponding to disturbance regimes was quantified in three transition matrices (lower disturbance pre-1996; moderate disturbance from 1998 to 2010 and 2013 to 2017, disturbed in 1996/1998, 2010/11/12, 2017). Increased disturbance frequency and severity caused progressive reduction in coral size, cover, and population fecundity. Small size-classes were bolstered more by partial colony mortality than sexual recruitment. Some large corals had a size refuge and resisted die-back but were also lost with increasing disturbance. Matrix and biophysical larval flow models suggested one metapopulation. Southern, Arabian, populations could be connected to northern, Iranian, populations but this connectivity was lost under assumptions of pelagic larval duration at rising temperatures shortened to a third. Then, the metapopulation disintegrated into isolated populations. Connectivity required to avoid extinctions increased exponentially with disturbance frequency and correlation of disturbances across the metapopulation. Populations became unsustainable at eight disturbances in 15 years, when even highest theoretical recruitment no longer compensated mortality. This lethal disturbance frequency was 3-fold that of the moderately disturbed monitoring period and 4-fold of the preceding low-disturbance period-suggesting ongoing shortening of the disturbance-free period. Observed population collapse and environmental changes in the Gulf suggest that A. downingi is heading toward at least functional extinction mainly due to increasingly frequent temperature-induced mortality events, clearly linked to climate change.

Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century.

Over 1.3 billion people live on tropical coasts, primarily in developing countries. Many depend on adjacent coastal seas for food, and livelihoods. We show how trends in demography and in several local and global anthropogenic stressors are progressively degrading capacity of coastal waters to sustain these people. Far more effective approaches to environmental management are needed if the loss in provision of ecosystem goods and services is to be stemmed. We propose expanded use of marine spatial planning as a framework for more effective, pragmatic management based on ocean zones to accommodate conflicting uses. This would force the holistic, regional-scale reconciliation of food security, livelihoods, and conservation that is needed. Transforming how countries manage coastal resources will require major change in policy and politics, implemented with sufficient flexibility to accommodate societal variations. Achieving this change is a major challenge - one that affects the lives of one fifth of humanity.

One size does not fit all: the emerging frontier in large-scale marine conservation.

On the 20th anniversary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, a network of very large marine protected areas (the Big Ocean network) has emerged as a key strategy in the move to arrest marine decline and conserve some of the last remaining relatively undisturbed marine areas on the globe. Here we outline the ecological, economic and policy benefits of very large-scale MPAs and show their disproportionate value to global marine conservation targets. In particular we point out that very large-scale MPAs are a critical component of reaching the Aichi targets of protecting 10% of global marine habitats by 2020, because in addition to encompassing entire ecosystems, they will bring forward the expected date of achievement by nearly three decades (2025 as opposed to 2054). While the need for small MPAs remains critical, large MPAs will complement and enhance these conservation efforts. Big Ocean sites currently contain more than 80% of managed area in the sea, and provide our best hope for arresting the global decline in marine biodiversity.

Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications.

Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be pursued. Alleviation of most local stress factors such as nutrient discharges, sedimentation, and overfishing is also imperative if sufficient overall resilience of reefs to climate change is to be achieved.

Human impact on atolls leads to coral loss and community homogenisation: a modeling study.

We explore impacts on pristine atolls subjected to anthropogenic near-field (human habitation) and far-field (climate and environmental change) pressure. Using literature data of human impacts on reefs, we parameterize forecast models to evaluate trajectories in coral cover under impact scenarios that primarily act via recruitment and increased mortality of larger corals. From surveys across the Chagos, we investigate the regeneration dynamics of coral populations distant from human habitation after natural disturbances. Using a size-based mathematical model based on a time-series of coral community and population data from 1999-2006, we provide hind- and forecast data for coral population dynamics within lagoons and on ocean-facing reefs verified against monitoring from 1979-2009. Environmental data (currents, temperatures) were used for calibration. The coral community was simplified into growth typologies: branching and encrusting, arboresent and massive corals. Community patterns observed in the field were influenced by bleaching-related mortality, most notably in 1998. Survival had been highest in deep lagoonal settings, which suggests a refuge. Recruitment levels were higher in lagoons than on ocean-facing reefs. When adding stress by direct human pressure, climate and environmental change as increased disturbance frequency and modified recruitment and mortality levels (due to eutrophication, overfishing, pollution, heat, acidification, etc), models suggest steep declines in coral populations and loss of community diversification among habitats. We found it likely that degradation of lagoonal coral populations would impact regeneration potential of all coral populations, also on ocean-facing reefs, thus decreasing reef resilience on the entire atoll.

Diversity and distribution of symbiodinium associated with seven common coral species in the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean.

The Chagos Archipelago designated as a no-take marine protected area in 2010, lying about 500 km south of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, has a high conservation priority, particularly because of its fast recovery from the ocean-wide massive coral mortality following the 1998 coral bleaching event. The aims of this study were to examine Symbiodinium diversity and distribution associated with scleractinian corals in five atolls of the Chagos Archipelago, spread over 10,000 km(2). Symbiodinium clade diversity in 262 samples of seven common coral species, Acropora muricata, Isopora palifera, Pocillopora damicornis, P. verrucosa, P. eydouxi, Seriatopora hystrix, and Stylophora pistillata were determined using PCR-SSCP of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1), PCR-DDGE of ITS2, and phylogenetic analyses. The results indicated that Symbiodinium in clade C were the dominant symbiont group in the seven coral species. Our analysis revealed types of Symbiodinium clade C specific to coral species. Types C1 and C3 (with C3z and C3i variants) were dominant in Acroporidae and C1 and C1c were the dominant types in Pocilloporidae. We also found 2 novel ITS2 types in S. hystrix and 1 novel ITS2 type of Symbiodinium in A. muricata. Some colonies of A. muricata and I. palifera were also associated with Symbiodinium A1. These results suggest that corals in the Chagos Archipelago host different assemblages of Symbiodinium types then their conspecifics from other locations in the Indian Ocean; and that future research will show whether these patterns in Symbiodinium genotypes may be due to local adaptation to specific conditions in the Chagos.

Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean.

In 1998, more than 90% of shallow corals were killed on most Indian Ocean reefs. High sea surface temperature (SST) was a primary cause, acting directly or by interacting with other factors. Mean SSTs have been forecast to rise above the 1998 values in a few decades; however, forecast SSTs rarely flow seamlessly from historical data, or may show erroneous seasonal oscillations, precluding an accurate prediction of when lethal SSTs will recur. Differential acclimation by corals in different places complicates this further. Here I scale forecast SSTs at 33 Indian Ocean sites where most shallow corals died in 1998 (ref. 1) to identify geographical patterns in the timing of probable repeat occurrences. Reefs located 10-15 degrees south will be affected every 5 years by 2010-2025. North and south from this, dates recede in a pattern not directly related to present SSTs; paradoxically, some of the warmest sites may be affected last. Temperatures lethal to corals vary in this region by 6 degrees C, and acclimation of a modest 2 degrees C by corals could prolong their survival by nearly 100 years.

Erosion vs. recovery of coral reefs after 1998 El Niño: Chagos reefs, Indian Ocean.

Three years after most corals died on the central Indian Ocean reefs of Chagos, erosion and recovery were studied to 30 m depth. Mortality was near-total to 15 m deep in northern atolls, and to > 35 m in central and southern atolls. Some reef surfaces have 'dropped' 1.5 m due to the loss of dense coral thickets. Coral bioerosion is substantial, reducing 3-D reef 'structure' and forming unconsolidated rubble. Juvenile corals are abundant, though mostly on eroding or unstable substrates, and are of less robust species. Reef fish abundance and diversity at 15 m depth remains high; species dependent on corals have diminished, while some herbivores and detritivores have increased. A new sea surface temperature (SST) data set shows that mean SST has risen 0.65 degree C since 1950. The critical SST causing the mortality in Chagos was 29.9 degrees C.