ABSTRACT
Many real-world complex systems, when hitting a tipping point, undergo irreversible sudden shifts that can eventually take a great toll on humanity and the natural world, such as ecosystem collapses, disease outbreaks, etc. Previous work has adopted approximations to predict the tipping points, but due to the nature of nonlinearity, this may lead to unexpected errors in predicting real-world systems. Here we obtain the rigorous bounds of the tipping points for general nonlinear cooperative networks. Our results offer two rigorous criteria that determine the collapse and survival of such a system. These two criteria are decided by the combined effect of dynamical parameters and interaction topology.
ABSTRACT
GDP is a classic indicator of the extent of national economic development. Research based on the World Trade Network has found that a country's GDP depends largely on the products it exports. In order to increase the competitiveness of a country and further increase its GDP, a crucial issue is finding the right direction to upgrade the industry so that the country can enhance its competitiveness. The proximity indicator measures the similarity between products and can be used to predict the probability that a country will develop a new industry. On the other hand, the Fitness-Complexity algorithm can help to find the important products and developing countries. In this paper, we find that the maximum of the proximity between a certain product and a country's existing products is highly correlated with the probability that the country exports this new product in the next year. In addition, we find that the more products that are related to a certain product, the higher probability of the emergence of the new product. Finally, we combine the proximity indicator and the Fitness-Complexity algorithm and then attempt to provide a recommendation list of new products that can help developing countries to upgrade their industry. A few examples are given in the end.
