Global incidence trends of early-onset colorectal cancer and related exposures in early-life: an ecological analysis based on the GBD 2019.

Background: The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is increasing globally. This study aims to describe the temporal trends of incidence and explore related risk exposures in early-life at the country level based on the GBD 2019. Methods: Data on the incidence and attributable risk factors of EOCRC were obtained from the GBD 2019. Temporal trends of age-standardized incidence were evaluated by average annual percentage change (AAPC). Early-life exposures were indicated as summary exposure values (SEV) of selected factors, SDI and GDP per capita in previous decades and at ages 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years. Weighted linear or non-linear regressions were applied to evaluate the ecological aggregate associations of the exposures with incidences of EOCRC. Results: The global age-standardized incidence of EOCRC increased from 3.05 (3.03, 3.07) to 3.85 (3.83, 3.86) per 100,000 during 1990 and 2019. The incidence was higher in countries with high socioeconomic levels, and increased drastically in countries in East Asia and Caribbean, particularly Jamaica, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. The GDP per capita, SDI, and SEVs of iron deficiency, alcohol use, high body-mass index, and child growth failure in earlier years were more closely related with the incidences of EOCRC in 2019. Exposures at ages 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years were also associated with the incidences, particularly for the exposures at ages 15-19 years. Conclusion: The global incidence of EOCRC increased during past three decades. The large variations at regional and national level may be related with the distribution of risk exposures in early life.

Health insurance and inequalities in catastrophic health spending in cancer patients. A cross-sectional study in China.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of social health insurance programs in reducing inequality in the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) of cancer patients in China. METHOD: A convenient sample of 2534 cancer patients treated in nine hospitals in 2015 and 2016 were followed up through face-to-face interviews in March-December 2018. The incidence and intensity (mean positive overshoot) of CHE (≥ 40% household consumption) were calculated. RESULTS: About 72% of cancer patients experienced CHE events after insurance compensation, with the catastrophic mean positive overshoot amounting to 28.27% (SD: 15.83%) of the household consumption. Overall, social insurance contributed to a small percentage of drop in CHE events. Income-related inequality in CHE persisted before and after insurance compensation. Richer patients benefit more than poorer ones. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer treatment is associated with high incidence of CHE events in China. The alleviating effect of social health insurance on CHE events is limited.

Access to colorectal cancer screening in populations in China, 2020: A coverage-focused synthesis analysis.

In populations in China, colorectal cancer (CRC) screening can be mainly accessed through organized screening, opportunistic screening, and physical examination. This screening intervention is found to be effective but the exact coverage rate is difficult to measure. Based on data from published articles, official websites, and available program reports, the screening coverage rate and related indicators were quantified. A rapid review was then conducted to estimate the overall and the breakdown coverage rates of the sub-type screening services, by leveraging the numbers of articles and the by-type median sample sizes. Up to 2020, two central government-funded and four provincial/municipal-level organized CRC screening programs have been initiated and included in this analysis. For populations aged 40-74, the estimated coverage rate of organized programs in China was 2.7% in 2020, and the 2-year cumulative coverage rate in 2019-2020 was 5.3% and the 3-year cumulative coverage rate in 2018-2020 was 7.7%. The corresponding coverage rates of 50-74-year-olds were estimated to be 3.4%, 7.1%, and 10.3%, respectively. Based on the rapid review approach, the overall screening coverage rate for 40-74 years, considering organized screening programs, opportunistic screening, and physical examinations, was then estimated to be 3.0% in China in 2020. However, comparing the findings of this study with the number of health check-ups reported in the local national health statistics yearbooks suggests that the number of CRC physical examinations may be underestimated in this study. The findings suggest that further efforts are needed to improve population access to CRC screening in China. Furthermore, evidence for access to opportunistic CRC screening and physical examination is limited, and more quantitative investigation is needed.

Combining fecal immunochemical testing and questionnaire-based risk assessment in selecting participants for colonoscopy screening in the Chinese National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by allowing early resection of precancerous and cancerous lesions. An adequate selection of high-risk individuals and a high uptake rate for colonoscopy screening are critical to identifying people more likely to benefit from screening and allocating healthcare resources properly. We evaluated whether combining a questionnaire-based interview for risk factors with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) outcomes for high-risk assessment is more efficient and economical than a questionnaire-based interview-only strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this multicenter, population-based, prospective cohort study, we enrolled community residents aged 40 to 74 years in 29 provinces across China. From 2016 to 2020, a total of 1,526,824 eligible participants were consecutively enrolled in the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) cohort, and 940,605 were enrolled in the Whole Life Cycle of Cancer Screening Program (WHOLE) cohort, with follow-up to December 31, 2022. The mean ages were 56.89 and 58.61 years in CanSPUC and WHOLE, respectively. In the WHOLE cohort, high-risk individuals were identified by combining questionnaire-based interviews to collect data on risk factors (demographics, diet history, family history of CRC, etc.) with FIT outcomes (RF-FIT strategy), whereas in the CanSPUC cohort, high-risk individuals were identified using only interview-based data on risk factors (RF strategy). The primary outcomes were participation rate and yield (detection rate of advanced neoplasm, early-stage detection rate of CRCs [stage I/II], screening yield per 10,000 invitees), which were reported for the entire population and for different gender and age groups. The secondary outcome was the cost per case detected. In total, 71,967 (7.65%) and 281,985 (18.47%) individuals were identified as high-risk and were invited to undergo colonoscopy in the RF-FIT group and RF group, respectively. The colonoscopy participation rate in the RF-FIT group was 26.50% (19,071 of 71,967) and in the RF group was 19.54% (55,106 of 281,985; chi-squared test, p < 0.001). A total of 102 (0.53%) CRCs and 2,074 (10.88%) advanced adenomas were detected by the RF-FIT, versus 90 (0.16%) and 3,593 (6.52%) by the RF strategy (chi-squared test, both p < 0.001). The early-stage detection rate using the RF-FIT strategy was significantly higher than that by the RF strategy (67.05% versus 47.95%, Fisher's exact test, p = 0.016). The cost per CRC detected was $24,849 by the RF-FIT strategy versus $55,846 by the RF strategy. A limitation of the study was lack of balance between groups with regard to family history of CRC (3.5% versus 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy participation and screening yield were better with the RF-FIT strategy. The association with CRC incidence and mortality reduction should be evaluated after long-term follow-up.

Risk-Adapted Starting Age of Personalized Lung Cancer Screening: A Population-Based, Prospective Cohort Study in China.

BACKGROUND: The current one-size-fits-all screening strategy for lung cancer is not suitable for personalized screening. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the risk-adapted starting age of lung cancer screening with comprehensive consideration of risk factors? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The National Lung Cancer Screening program, a multicenter, population-based, prospective cohort study, was analyzed. Information on risk factor exposure was collected during the baseline risk assessment. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between risk factors and lung cancer incidence. Age-specific 10-year cumulative risk was calculated to determine the age at which individuals with various risk factors reached the equivalent risk level as individuals aged ≥ 50 years with active tobacco use and a ≥ 20 pack-year smoking history. RESULTS: Of the 1,031,911 participants enrolled in this study, 3,908 demonstrated lung cancer after a median follow-up of 3.8 years. We identified seven risk factors for lung cancer, including pack-years of smoking, secondhand smoke exposure, family history of lung cancer in first-degree relatives, history of respiratory diseases, occupational hazardous exposure, BMI, and diabetes. The 10-year cumulative risk of lung cancer for people aged ≥ 50 years with active tobacco use and a ≥ 20 pack-year smoking history was 1.37%, which was treated as the risk threshold for screening. Individuals who never smoked and those with active tobacco use and a < 30-pack-year history of smoking reached the equivalent risk level 1 to 14 years later compared with the starting age of 50 years. Men with active tobacco use, a ≥ 30-pack-year history of smoking, and concurrent respiratory diseases or diabetes should be screened 1 year earlier at the age of 49 years. INTERPRETATION: The personalized risk-adapted starting ages for lung cancer screening, based on the principle of equal management of equal risk, can served as an optimized screening strategy to identify high-risk individuals.

Estimating the economic burden of colorectal cancer in China, 2019-2030: A population-level prevalence-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Comprehensive data on the economic burden of CRC at a population-level is critical in informing policymaking, but such data are currently limited in China. METHODS: From a societal perspective, the economic burden of CRC in 2019 was estimated, including direct medical and nonmedical expenditure, disability, and premature-death-related indirect expenditure. Data on disease burden was taken from the GBD 2019 and analyzed using a prevalence-based approach. The per-person direct expenditure and work loss days were from a multicenter study; the premature-death-related expenditure was estimated using a human capital approach. Projections were conducted in different simulated scenarios. All expenditure data were in Chinese Yuan (CNY) and discounted to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, the estimated overall economic burden of CRC in China was CNY170.5 billion (0.189% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY106.4 billion (62.4% of the total economic burden), 91.4% of which was a direct medical expenditure. The indirect expenditure was CNY64.1 billion, of which 63.7% was related to premature death. The predicted burden would reach CNY560.0 billion in 2030 given constant trends for disease burden; however, it would be alternatively reduced to

Association Between Socioeconomic Status and Adherence to Fecal Occult Blood Tests in Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: Screening adherence is important in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. Disparity in CRC screening adherence was observed in populations of different socioeconomic status (SES), but the direction and strength of the association remained unclear. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to systematically review all the observational studies that have analyzed the association between SES and adherence to organized CRC screening based on fecal occult blood tests. METHODS: We systematically reviewed the studies in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science and reference lists of relevant reviews from the inception of the database up until June 7, 2023. Individual SES, neighborhood SES, and small-area SES were included, while any SES aggregated by geographic areas larger than neighbors were excluded. Studies assessing SES with any index or score combining indicators of income, education, deprivation, poverty, occupation, employment, marital status, cohabitation, and others were included. A random effect model meta-analysis was carried out for pooled odds ratios (ORs) and relative risks for adherence related to SES. RESULTS: Overall, 10 studies, with a total of 3,542,379 participants and an overall adherence rate of 64.9%, were included. Compared with low SES, high SES was associated with higher adherence (unadjusted OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.42-2.10; adjusted OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.28-1.82). In the subgroup of nonindividual-level SES, the adjusted association was significant (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.26-1.95). However, the adjusted association was insignificant in the subgroup of individual-level SES (OR 1.46, 95% CI 0.98-2.17). As for subgroups of the year of print, not only was the unadjusted association significantly stronger in the subgroup of early studies (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.59-2.44) than in the subgroup of late studies (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.31-1.56), but also the adjusted one was significantly stronger in the early group (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.43-2.42) than in the late group (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.39), which was consistent and robust. Despite being statistically insignificant, the strength of the association seemed lower in studies that did not adjust for race and ethnicity (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.21-1.43) than the overall estimate (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.28-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: The higher-SES population had higher adherence to fecal occult blood test-based organized CRC screening. Neighborhood SES, or small-area SES, was more competent than individual SES to be used to assess the association between SES and adherence. The disparity in adherence between the high SES and the low SES narrowed along with the development of interventions and the improvement of organized programs. Race and ethnicity were probably important confounding factors for the association.

Geographic disparities in trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 and a projection to 2030 across income-classified countries and territories.

Background: The rising incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has generated growing concern globally; yet there are no studies examining whether this incidence was followed by a rise in related mortality. We aimed to comprehensively quantify current trends and future projections of TC incidence and mortality, and to explore the association between the TC burden and socioeconomic inequality in different income strata. Methods: We obtained incidence and mortality data on TC and population from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2022. We applied an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) and age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019, and also constructed a Bayesian APC model to predict the TC burden through 2030. Results: Over a third of global TC cases belonged to the high-income group. From 1990 to 2019, net drifts of TC incidence were >0 in all income groups, while a modest reduction (net drift <0) in mortality was observed in most income groups, except for the lower-middle-income group. Unfavourable age, period, and cohort effects were most notable in Vietnam, China, and Korea. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) is predicted to increase whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) is expected to decrease globally between 2020 and 2030, with geographic heterogeneity being detected across income groups. We observed a positive correlation between ASIR and universal health coverage index and health worker density, but a negative one between ASMR and the two indicators, primarily in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Conclusions: Opposite patterns in incidence and mortality of TC raise concerns about overdiagnosis, particularly in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Discrepancies in the distribution of health service accessibility, including diagnostic techniques and therapeutic care, should be addressed by narrowing health inequalities in the TC burden across countries.

Modifiable risk-attributable and age-related burden of lung cancer in China, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: There were limited studies on the quantification of the modifiable and nonmodifiable lung cancer burden over time in China. Furthermore, the potential effect of risk factor reduction for lung cancer on gains in life expectancy (LE) remains unknown. METHODS: This study explored temporal trends in lung cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2019, based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. The abridged period life table method was used to quantify the effect of risk factors on LE. The authors used the decomposition approach to estimate contributions of aging metrics to change in the lung cancer burden. RESULTS: Nationally, the majority of lung cancer deaths and DALYs were attributable to behavioral and environmental risk clusters. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) at birth would be 0.78 years for males and 0.35 years for females if the exposure to risk factors was mitigated to the theoretical minimum level. Tobacco use had the most robust impact on LE for both sexes (PGLE: 0.71 years for males and 0.19 years for females). From 1990 to 2019, risk-attributable age-standardized death and DALY rates of lung cancer showed an increasing trend in both sexes; adult population growth imposed 245.9 thousand deaths and 6.2 million DALYs for lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The modifiable risk-attributable lung cancer burden remains high in China. Effective tobacco control is the critical step toward addressing the lung cancer burden. Adult population growth was the foremost driver of transition in the age-related lung cancer burden. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: We estimate the lung cancer burden attributable to modifiable and nonmodifiable contributors and the effect of risk factor reduction for lung cancer on the life expectancy in China. The findings suggest that the majority of lung cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years were attributable to behavioral risk clusters, and the risk-attributable lung cancer burden increased nationally from 1990 to 2019. The average gains in life expectancy would be 0.78 years for males and 0.35 years for females if the exposure to risk factors for lung cancer was reduced to the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. Adult population growth was identified as the foremost driver of variation in the aging lung cancer burden.

A strategy to reduce the false-positive rate after low-dose computed tomography in lung cancer screening: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The ability of lung cancer screening to manage pulmonary nodules was limited because of the high false-positive rate in the current mainstream screening method, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). We aimed to reduce overdiagnosis in Chinese population. METHODS: Lung cancer risk prediction models were constructed using data from a population-based cohort in China. Independent clinical data from two programs performed in Beijing and Shandong, respectively, were used as the external validation set. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of lung cancer incidence in the whole population and in smokers and nonsmokers. RESULTS: In our cohort, 1,016,740 participants were enrolled between 2013 and 2018. Of 79,581 who received LDCT screening, 5165 participants with suspected pulmonary nodules were allocated into the training set, of which, 149 lung cancer cases were diagnosed. In the validation set, 1815 patients were included, and 800 developed lung cancer. The ages of patients and radiologic factors of nodules (calcification, density, mean diameter, edge, and pleural involvement) were included in our model. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were 0.868 (95% CI: 0.839-0.894) in the training set and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.727-0.774) in the validation set. The sensitivity and specificity were 70.5% and 70.9%, respectively, which could reduce the 68.8% false-positive rate in simulated LDCT screening. There was no substantial difference between smokers' and nonsmokers' prediction models. CONCLUSION: Our models could facilitate the diagnosis of suspected pulmonary nodules, effectively reducing the false-positive rate of LDCT for lung cancer screening.