Comparison of external dose estimates using different retrospective dosimetry methods in the settlements located near Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, Republic of Kazakhstan.

For correct assessment of health risks after low-dose irradiation, calculation of radiation exposure estimates is crucial. To verify the calculated absorbed doses, instrumental methods of retrospective dosimetry are used. We compared calculated and instrumental-based estimates of external absorbed doses in the residents of Dolon, Mostik and Cheremushki villages, Kazakhstan, affected by the first nuclear weapon test performed at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (SNTS) on August 29, 1949. The 'instrumental' doses were retrospectively estimated using the Luminescence Retrospective Dosimetry (LRD) and Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) methods. Correlation between the calculated individual cumulative external absorbed whole-body doses based on typical input data and ESR-based individual doses in the same people was strong (r = 0.782). It was even stronger between the calculated doses based on individual questionnaires' input data and the ESR-based doses (r = 0.940). Application of the LRD method is useful for validation of the calculated settlement-average cumulated external absorbed dose to air. Reconstruction of external exposure can be supplemented with the data from later measurements of soil contamination with long-lived radionuclides, such as, 137Cs. Our results show the reliability of the calculational method used for the retrospective assessment of individual external doses.

Dose Estimation for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, the prospects that a nuclear device might be detonated due to a regional or global political conflict, by violation of present nuclear weapons test ban agreements, or due to an act of terrorism, has increased. Thus, the need exists for a well conceptualized, well described, and internally consistent methodology for dose estimation that takes full advantage of the experience gained over the last 70 y in both measurement technology and dose assessment methodology. Here, the models, rationale, and data needed for a detailed state-of-the-art dose assessment for exposure to radioactive fallout from nuclear detonations discussed in five companion papers are summarized. These five papers present methods and data for estimating radionuclide deposition of fallout radionuclides, internal and external dose from the deposited fallout, and discussion of the uncertainties in the assessed doses. In addition, this paper includes a brief discussion of secondary issues related to assessments of radiation dose from fallout. The intention of this work is to provide a usable and consistent methodology for both prospective and retrospective assessments of exposure from radioactive fallout from a nuclear detonation.

A Method for Estimating the Deposition Density of Fallout on the Ground and on Vegetation from a Low-yield, Low-altitude Nuclear Detonation.

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a relatively simple model developed from observations of local fallout from US and USSR nuclear tests that allows reasonable estimates to be made of the deposition density (activity per unit area) on both the ground and on vegetation for each radionuclide of interest produced in a nuclear fission detonation as a function of location and time after the explosion. In addition to accounting for decay rate and in-growth of radionuclides, the model accounts for the fractionation (modification of the relative activity of various fission and activation products in fallout relative to that produced in the explosion) that results from differences in the condensation temperatures of the various fission and activation products produced in the explosion. The proposed methodology can be used to estimate the deposition density of all fallout radionuclides produced in a low yield, low altitude fission detonation that contribute significantly to dose. The method requires only data from post-detonation measurements of exposure rate (or beta or a specific nuclide activity) and fallout time-of-arrival. These deposition-density estimates allow retrospective as well as rapid prospective estimates to be made of both external and internal radiation exposure to downwind populations living within a few hundred kilometers of ground zero, as described in the companion papers in this volume.

A Methodology for Estimating External Doses to Individuals and Populations Exposed to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations.

ABSTRACT: A methodology of assessment of the doses from external irradiation resulting from the ground deposition of radioactive debris (fallout) from a nuclear detonation is proposed in this paper. The input data used to apply this methodology for a particular location are the outdoor exposure rate at any time after deposition of fallout and the time-of-arrival of fallout, as indicated and discussed in a companion paper titled "A Method for Estimating the Deposition Density of Fallout on the Ground and on Vegetation from a Low-yield Low-altitude Nuclear Detonation." Example doses are estimated for several age categories and for all radiosensitive organs and tissues identified in the most recent ICRP publications. Doses are calculated for the first year after the detonation, when more than 90% of the external dose is delivered for populations close to the detonation site over a time period of 70 y, which is intended to represent the lifetime dose. Modeled doses in their simplest form assume no environmental remediation, though modifications can be introduced. Two types of dose assessment are considered: (1) initial, for a rapid but only approximate dose estimation soon after the nuclear detonation; and (2) improved, for a later, more accurate, dose assessment following the analysis of post-detonation measurements of radiation exposure and fallout deposition and the access of information on the lifestyle of the exposed population.

Comparison of thyroid doses to the public from radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents.

Estimates of thyroid doses to the public from radioiodine intake following the accidents at Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants are compared. The basis for thyroid dose estimates after the Chernobyl accident was a large set of measurements of 131I thyroidal content for approximately 400,000 residents in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. Due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements after the Fukushima accident (just over 1000 residents were measured), thyroid doses were estimated based on ecological models and are therefore associated with much higher uncertainty than those based on direct thyroid measurements. Thyroid dose estimates for evacuees were up to 50,000 mGy for Chernobyl and up to approximately 100 mGy for Fukushima. This large difference in thyroid dose to the public is mainly due to the different dominant pathways of radioiodine intake: ingestion of fresh, locally produced cows' milk (Chernobyl) and inhalation of contaminated air (Fukushima).

Influence of the external and internal radioactive contamination of the body and the clothes on the results of the thyroidal 131I measurements conducted in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident. Part 1: Estimation of the external and internal radioactive contamination.

The estimation of the thyroid doses received in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident is based on the analysis of exposure-rate measurements performed with radiation detectors placed against the necks of about 130,000 residents. The purpose of these measurements was to estimate the 131I activity contents of the thyroids of the subjects. However, because the radiation detectors were not equipped with collimators and because the subjects usually wore contaminated clothes, among other factors, the radiation signal included, in addition to the gamma rays emitted during the decay of the 131I activity present in the thyroid, contributions from external contamination of the skin and clothes and internal contamination of organs other than the thyroid by various radionuclides. The assessment of the contributions of the external and internal contamination of the body to the radiation signal is divided into two parts: (1) the estimation of the radionuclide activities deposited on, and incorporated in, various parts of the body, and (2) the responses of the radiation detectors to the gamma rays emitted by the radionuclides deposited on, and incorporated in, various parts of the body. The first part, which is presented in this paper, includes a variety of exposure scenarios, models, and calculations for 17 of the most abundant gamma-emitting radionuclides contributing to the thyroid detector signal, while the second part is presented in a companion paper. The results presented in the two papers were combined to calculate the contributions of the external and internal contamination of the body to the radiation signal, and, in turn, the 131I activities in the thyroids of all subjects of an epidemiologic study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases among 11,732 Belarusian-American cohort members who were exposed in childhood and adolescence.

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents.

In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows' milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper.

Workshop Report on Atomic Bomb Dosimetry--Review of Dose Related Factors for the Evaluation of Exposures to Residual Radiation at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Groups of Japanese and American scientists, supported by international collaborators, have worked for many years to ensure the accuracy of the radiation dosimetry used in studies of health effects in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Reliable dosimetric models and systems are especially critical to epidemiologic studies of this population because of their importance in the development of worldwide radiation protection standards. While dosimetry systems, such as Dosimetry System 1986 (DS86) and Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02), have improved, the research groups that developed them were unable to propose or confirm an additional contribution by residual radiation to the survivor's total body dose. In recognition of the need for an up-to-date review of residual radiation exposures in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a half-day technical session was held for reports on newer studies at the 59 th Annual HPS Meeting in 2014 in Baltimore, MD. A day-and-a-half workshop was also held to provide time for detailed discussion of the newer studies and to evaluate their potential use in clarifying the residual radiation exposure to atomic bomb survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The process also involved a re-examination of very early surveys of radioisotope emissions from ground surfaces at Hiroshima and Nagasaki and early reports of health effects. New insights were reported on the potential contribution to residual radiation from neutron-activated radionuclides in the airburst's dust stem and pedestal and in unlofted soil, as well as from fission products and weapon debris from the nuclear cloud. However, disparate views remain concerning the actual residual radiation doses received by the atomic bomb survivors at different distances from the hypocenter. The workshop discussion indicated that measurements made using thermal luminescence and optically stimulated luminescence, like earlier measurements, especially in very thin layers of the samples, could be expanded to detect possible radiation exposures to beta particles and to determine their significance plus the extent of the various residual radiation areas at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Other suggestions for future residual radiation studies are included in this workshop report.

Thyroid dose estimates for a cohort of Belarusian children exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident.

The U.S. National Cancer Institute, in collaboration with the Belarusian Ministry of Health, is conducting a study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in a cohort of about 12,000 persons who were exposed to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. The study subjects were 18 years old or younger at the time of exposure and resided in Belarus in the most contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts, as well as in the city of Minsk. All cohort members had at least one direct thyroid measurement made in April-June 1986. Individual data on residential history, consumption of milk, milk products and leafy vegetables as well as administration of stable iodine were collected for all cohort members by means of personal interviews conducted between 1996 and 2007. Based on the estimated (131)I activities in the thyroids, which were derived from the direct thyroid measurements, and on the responses to the questionnaires, individual thyroid doses from intakes of (131)I were reconstructed for all cohort members. In addition, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for the following minor exposure pathways: (a) intake of short-lived (132)I, (133)I and (132)Te by inhalation and ingestion; (b) external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground; and (c) ingestion intake of (134)Cs and (137)Cs. Intake of (131)I was the major pathway for thyroid exposure; its mean contribution to the thyroid dose was 92%. The thyroid doses from (131)I intakes varied from 0.5 mGy to almost 33 Gy; the mean was estimated to be 0.58 Gy, while the median was 0.23 Gy. The reconstructed doses are being used to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in the cohort.

Reconstruction of radiation doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer following the Chernobyl accident.

A population-based case-control study of thyroid cancer was carried out in contaminated regions of Belarus and Russia among persons who were exposed during childhood and adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. For each study subject, individual thyroid doses were reconstructed for the following pathways of exposure: (1) intake of 131I via inhalation and ingestion; (2) intake of short-lived radioiodines (132I, 133I, and 135I) and radiotelluriums (131mTe, 132Te) via inhalation and ingestion; (3) external dose from radionuclides deposited on the ground; and (4) ingestion of 134Cs and 137Cs. A series of intercomparison exercises validated the models used for reconstruction of average doses to populations of specific age groups as well as of individual doses. Median thyroid doses from all factors for study subjects were estimated to be 0.37 and 0.034 Gy in Belarus and Russia, respectively. The highest individual thyroid doses among the subjects were 10.2 Gy in Belarus and 5.3 Gy in Russia. Iodine-131 intake was the main pathway for thyroid exposure. Estimated doses from short-lived radioiodines and radiotelluriums ranged up to 0.53 Gy. Reconstructed individual thyroid doses from external exposure ranged up to 0.1 Gy, while those from internal exposure due to ingested cesium did not exceed 0.05 Gy. The uncertainty of the reconstructed individual thyroid doses, characterized by the geometric standard deviation, varies from 1.7 to 4.0 with a median of 2.2.

Phase II, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of recombinant human intestinal trefoil factor oral spray for prevention of oral mucositis in patients with colorectal cancer who are receiving fluorouracil-based chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the safety and efficacy of recombinant human intestinal trefoil factor (rhITF) administered as topical oral spray for prevention and treatment of chemotherapy-induced oral mucositis (OM). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Ninety-nine patients with colorectal cancer who had moderate to severe OM (WHO grade >or= 2) in the first cycle of chemotherapy were randomly assigned to receive either placebo, rhITF 10 mg/mL (ie, low dose), or rhITF 80 mg/mL (ie, high dose) by oral spray (300 microL, eight times each day) for 14 consecutive days in the second chemotherapy cycle. Patients were assessed on days 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 12, 14, and 21 (+/- 2 days for the last assessment) for safety and for OM incidence and severity. RESULTS: Treatment of patients at high risk for developing OM with low- or high-dose rhITF significantly reduced the amount of incidence (75% to 81%; low-dose rhITF P < .001; high-dose rhITF P = .002). Frequencies of WHO grade >or= 2 OM in the placebo, low-dose rhITF, and high-dose rhITF groups were 48.5%, 9.1%, and 12.1%, respectively. Assessment of the area under the curve revealed statistically significant reductions in OM severity in the rhITF-treated groups versus placebo. Only a minority of patients (6.1%) reported treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), all of which were mild to moderate in intensity and resolved without sequelae. The incidence of TEAEs was not significantly different among treatment groups. CONCLUSION: rhITF oral spray formulation was safe and effective when used for the reduction of chemotherapy-associated OM in patients with colorectal cancer. Patients exhibited high compliance in dosing administration. Future clinical study is planned to develop this drug for use in OM management in patients with cancer.

High frequency of AML1/RUNX1 point mutations in radiation-associated myelodysplastic syndrome around Semipalatinsk nuclear test site.

It is known that bone marrow is a sensitive organ to ionizing radiation, and many patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) have been diagnosed in radiation-treated cases and atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The AML1/RUNX1 gene has been known to be frequently mutated in MDS/AML patients among atomic bomb survivors and radiation therapy-related MDS/AML patients. In this study, we investigated the AML1 mutations in radiation-exposed patients with MDS/AML among the residents near the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (SNTS), where the risk of solid cancers and leukemias was increased due to the radiation effects. AML1 mutations were identified in 7 (39%) of 18 radiation-exposed MDS/AML patients. In contrast, no AML1 mutation was found in 13 unexposed MDS/AML cases. The frequency of AML1 mutations in radiation-exposed patients with MDS/AML was significantly higher compared with unexposed patients (p < 0.05).We also found a significant correlation between individual estimated doses and AML1 mutations (p < 0.05). Considering these results, AML1 point mutations might be a useful biomarker that differentiates radio-induced MDS/AML from spontaneous MDS/AML.

Iodine-129 measurements in soil samples from Dolon village near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site.

Dolon village, located about 60 km from the border of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, is known to be heavily contaminated by the first USSR atomic bomb test in August 1949. Soil samples around Dolon were taken in October 2005 in an attempt to evaluate internal thyroid dose arising from incorporation of radioiodine isotopes (mainly (131)I). Iodine-129 in soil was measured by using the technique of accelerator mass spectrometry. The (129)I/(127)I atom ratios measured were in the range from 3.3 x 10(-9) to 3.3 x 10(-7). These values were within the range of the current background level ( approximately 10(-9) to 10(-7)) in the environment, including contributions from the global fallout of atmospheric nuclear tests and local fallout of nuclear facilities. The (129)I atom accumulated level in soil ranged from 1.28 x 10(13) to 1.59 x 10(14) atoms m(-2), the average (8.0 x 10(13)) of which was higher than the background level of (2-5) x 10(13). From the relationship between (129)I and( 137)Cs (corrected for background and decay from 1949 to 2005) accumulated levels, the background level of (129)I and the (129)I/(137)Cs ratio around Dolon were estimated to be (6.4 +/- 0.4) x 10(13) atoms m(-2) and 0.25 +/- 0.16, respectively. This (129)I/(137)Cs ratio is almost similar to the fission yield ratio for (239)Pu fast fission (0.24).

Credibility of Chernobyl thyroid doses exceeding 10 Gy based on in-vivo measurements of 131I in Belarus.

Many estimates of individual thyroid doses to children and adults in Belarus have been based on the results of direct thyroid measurements made using survey meters soon after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Thyroid doses from internal exposure to 131I that are estimated using such measurements are usually considered to be better than estimates obtained by environmental transport modeling of concentrations expected in milk. Nonetheless, some of the estimated doses, primarily those to children, were high enough to raise questions about their credibility. Questions about high thyroid doses, taken here to be those exceeding 10 Gy, identified the need for further analysis, which is reported in this article. The overall conclusion is that the initial dose estimates exceeding 10 Gy based on direct thyroid measurements in Belarus are credible estimates and not mistakes. While the possibility of copying and data entry errors cannot be completely ruled out, the consistency of multiple measurements for many individuals supports the high dose estimates.

Retrospective dose assessment for the population living in areas of local fallout from the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site Part I: External exposure.

A short analysis of all 111 atmospheric events conducted at the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) in 1949-1962 with regard to significant off-site exposure (more than 5 mSv of the effective dose during the first year after the explosion) has been made. The analytical method used to assess external exposure to the residents living in settlements near the STS is described. This method makes use of the archival data on the radiological conditions, including the measurements of exposure rate. Special attention was given to the residents of Dolon and Kanonerka villages exposed mainly as a result of the first test, detonated on August 29, 1949. For the residents of those settlements born in 1935, the dose estimates calculated according to the analytical method, are compared to those derived from the thermoluminescence measurements in bricks and electron paramagnetic resonance measurements in teeth. The methods described in this paper were used for external dose assessment for the cohort members at an initial stage of an ongoing epidemiological study conducted by the U.S. National Cancer Institute in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Recently revised methods and estimates of external exposure for that cohort are given in another paper (Simon et al.) in this conference.

External dose estimates for Dolon village: application of the U.S./Russian joint methodology.

Methods to estimate external dose from radioactive fallout from nuclear tests have for many years depended on two types of data: measurements of exposure rate in air and an empirically derived power function to describe the change in exposure rate with time, Over the last four years, a working group with American and Russian participation has developed a bi-national joint methodology that offers an improved capability for estimating external dose. In this method, external dose is estimated using exposure rate functions derived from data from American nuclear tests similar in construction to SNTS (Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site) devices. For example, in this paper, we derive doses for test #1 (August 29, 1949) at the SNTS using an exposure rate function for the U.S. TRINITY test. For the case of test #1, the average external dose for a person in Dolon is estimated to have been about 0.5 Gy compared to 1 to 2 Gy estimated in other work. This prediction agrees better with reported EPR measurements in teeth from village residents and with measurements of TL signals in bricks from Dolon buildings. This report presents the basic elements of the joint methodology model for estimation of external dose received from SNTS fallout.

Retrospective dose assessment for the population living in areas of local fallout from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site Part II: Internal exposure to thyroid.

A methodology to assess internal exposure to thyroid from radioiodines for the residents living in settlements located in the vicinity of the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site is described that is the result of many years of research, primarily at the Moscow Institute of Biophysics. This methodology introduces two important concepts. First, the biologically active fraction, is defined as the fraction of the total activity on fallout particles with diameter less than 50 microns. That fraction is retained by vegetation and will ultimately result in contamination of dairy products. Second, the relative distance is derived as a dimensionless quantity from information on test yield, maximum height of cloud, and average wind velocity and describes how the biologically active fraction is distributed with distance from the site of the explosion. The parameter is derived in such a way that at locations with equal values of relative distance, the biologically active fraction will be the same for any test. The estimates of internal exposure to thyroid for the residents of Dolon and Kanonerka villages, for which the external exposure were assessed and given in a companion paper (Gordeev et al. 2006) in this conference, are presented. The main sources of uncertainty in the estimates are identified.

Individual thyroid dose estimation for a case-control study of Chernobyl-related thyroid cancer among children of Belarus-part I: 131I, short-lived radioiodines (132I, 133I, 135I), and short-lived radiotelluriums (131MTe and 132Te).

Large amounts of radioiodines were released into the atmosphere during the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986. In order to investigate whether the thyroid cancers observed among children in Belarus could have been caused by radiation exposures from the Chernobyl accident, a team of Belarusian, Russian, and American scientists conducted a case-control study to compare cases and controls according to estimated thyroid dose. The primary purpose of this paper is to present detailed information on the estimated thyroid doses, due to intakes of 131I, that were used in the case-control study. The range of the 131I thyroid doses among the 107 cases and the 214 controls was found to extend from 0.00002 to 4.3 Gy, with medians of approximately 0.2 Gy for the cases and 0.07 Gy for the controls. In addition, the thyroid doses resulting from the intakes of short-lived radioiodines (132I, 133I, and 135I) and radiotelluriums (131mTe and 132Te) were estimated and compared to the doses from 131I. The ratios of the estimated thyroid doses from the short-lived radionuclides and from I for the cases and the controls range from 0.003 to 0.1, with median values of approximately 0.02 for both cases and controls.