ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To develop risk scoring models predicting long-term survival and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) including myocardial infarction and stroke after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: All-consecutive 4,821 patients undergoing isolated CABG at Lankenau between 01/2005-07/2021 were included. MACCE was defined as all-cause mortality+myocardial infarction (MI)+stroke. Variable selection for both outcomes was obtained using a double selection logit Lasso with adaptive selection. Models performance was internally evaluated by calibration and accuracy using bootstrap cross-validation. Mortality and MACCE were compared among patients split into three groups based on the predicted risk scores for all-cause mortality and MACCE. An external validation of our database was performed with 665 patients from the University of Brescia, Italy. RESULTS: Pre-operative risk predictors were found to be predictors for all-cause mortality and MACCE. In addition, being of African American ethnicity is a significant predictor for MACCE after isolated CABG. The AUC which measures the discrimination of the models were 80.4%, 79.1%, 81.3%, and 79.2% for mortality at 1,2,3, and 5 years follow-up. The AUC for MACCE were 75%, 72.5%, 73,8%, and 72.7% at 1, 2, 3, and 5-years follow-up. For external validation, AUC for all-cause mortality and MACCE at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years was 73.7%, 70.8%, 68.7%, and 72.2% and 72.3%, 68.2%, 65.6%, 69.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Advanced (AD) Coronary Risk Score for All-Cause Mortality and MACCE provide good discrimination of long-term mortality and MACCE after isolated CABG. External validation observed a more AUC's above 70%.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: This study sought to identify periprocedural risk predictors that affect long-term prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: All consecutive 4,871 patients undergoing isolated CABG between May 2005 and June 2021 were included. Patients with and without COPD were compared for baseline demographics and preoperative characteristics. A propensity-matched analysis was used to compare the 2 groups. The primary outcome was long-term incidence of all-cause death. RESULTS: After matching, 767 patients each were included in the COPD and non-COPD groups; mean age was 71.6 and 71.4 years (P = .7), respectively; 29.3% and 32% (P = .2) were women, respectively. Intraoperatively, median (IQR) operating room time was higher in the COPD group than in the non-COPD group (5.9 [5.2-7.0] hours vs 5.8 [5.1-6.7] hours, respectively; P = .01). Postoperatively, intensive care unit stay (P = .03), hospital length of stay (P = .0004), and fresh frozen plasma transfusion units (P = .012) were higher in the COPD group than in the non-COPD group. Thirty-day mortality was not different between groups (1.3% in the COPD group vs 1% in the non-COPD group; P = .4). Median follow-up time was 4.0 years. The rate of all-cause death was higher in the COPD group than in the non-COPD group (138 patients [18.3%] vs 109 patients [14.5%], respectively; P = .042). Periprocedural risk predictors for all-cause death in patients with COPD were atrial fibrillation, diabetes, male sex, dialysis, ejection fraction less than 50%, peripheral vascular disease, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score greater than 4%. CONCLUSION: Patients with COPD undergoing isolated CABG had a significantly higher incidence of all-cause death than those without COPD. Herein, risk predictors are provided for all-cause death in patients undergoing isolated CABG.
