Development and internal validation of a dynamic fall risk prediction and monitoring tool in aged care using routinely collected electronic health data: a landmarking approach.

OBJECTIVES: Falls pose a significant challenge in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Existing falls prediction tools perform poorly and fail to capture evolving risk factors. We aimed to develop and internally validate dynamic fall risk prediction models and create point-based scoring systems for residents with and without dementia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study using electronic data from 27 RACFs in Sydney, Australia. The study included 5492 permanent residents, with a 70%-30% split for training and validation. The outcome measure was the incidence of falls. We tracked residents for 60 months, using monthly landmarks with 1-month prediction windows. We employed landmarking dynamic prediction for model development, a time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC) for model evaluations, and a regression coefficient approach to create point-based scoring systems. RESULTS: The model identified 15 independent predictors of falls in dementia and 12 in nondementia cohorts. Falls history was the key predictor of subsequent falls in both dementia (HR 4.75, 95% CI, 4.45-5.06) and nondementia cohorts (HR 4.20, 95% CI, 3.87-4.57). The AUROCC across landmarks ranged from 0.67 to 0.87 for dementia and from 0.66 to 0.86 for nondementia cohorts but generally remained between 0.75 and 0.85 in both cohorts. The total point risk score ranged from -2 to 57 for dementia and 0 to 52 for nondementia cohorts. DISCUSSION: Our novel risk prediction models and scoring systems provide timely person-centered information for continuous monitoring of fall risk in RACFs. CONCLUSION: Embedding these tools within electronic health records could facilitate the implementation of targeted proactive interventions to prevent falls.

The relationship between fall incidents and place of birth in residential aged care facilities: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Older populations in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) in many immigrant-receiving countries are now being increasingly culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD). CALD populations require tailored social and health services to support their needs and improve health outcomes. Falls among the elderly are common and can have significant health and psychosocial consequences. There is some evidence to suggest that country of birth may influence risk of falls among older people, but such evidence has been scarce. This study aimed to determine the association between place of birth and the incidence of falls in RACFs. METHODS: Routinely collected incident data relating to 5,628 residents aged ≥ 65 years in 25 RACFs in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia were used. RACF residents were classified into two groups, Australia-born (N = 4,086) and overseas-born (N = 1,542). Overseas-born RACF residents were further categorised into two subgroups: overseas-English-speaking-country (N = 743) and overseas-non-English-speaking-country (N = 799). Outcomes measures were rate of all falls, injurious falls and falls requiring hospitalisation. Multilevel binary negative regression was used to examine the relationship between fall risk and place of birth. RESULTS: Incidence rates of all falls, injurious falls and falls requiring hospitalisation were 8.62, 3.72 and 1.07 incidents per 1,000 resident days, respectively, among the Australia-born RACF residents, but were higher at 11.02, 4.13 and 1.65, respectively, among the overseas-born RACF residents. Within those born overseas, fall rates were higher among the overseas-non-English-speaking-country-born residents (11.32, 4.29 and 2.22, respectively) than those overseas-English-speaking-country-born (10.70, 3.96 and 1.05, respectively). After controlling for confounders, the overseas-born RACF residents overall experienced a higher risk of all three types of falls (incidence rate ratios: [IRR] = 1.278, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.131, 1.443; injurious falls: IRR = 1.164 [95% CI = 1.013, 1.338]; falls requiring hospitalisation: IRR = 1.460 [95% CI = 1.199, 1.777]) than the Australia-born RACF residents. Among the overseas-born RACF residents, males, respite residents and those overseas-non-English-speaking-country-born experienced higher rates of falls. CONCLUSIONS: Fall incidence in RACFs varies significantly by place of birth. With increasingly diverse RACF populations, fall intervention and prevention programs should consider cultural and linguistical backgrounds of RACF residents. Greater attention to understand the mechanisms for the differences by place of birth in risk profiles is warranted.