Clinical prediction scores and the utility of time to blood culture positivity in stratifying the risk of infective endocarditis in Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia.

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis (IE) complicates up to a quarter of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) cases. Risk scores predict IE complicating SAB but have undergone limited external validation, especially in community-acquired infections and those who use IV drugs. Addition of the time to positive culture (TTP) may provide incremental risk prognostication. OBJECTIVES: To externally validate risk scores for predicting IE in SAB and assess the incremental value of TTP. METHODS: The modified Duke score was calculated for adults hospitalized with SAB at a major tertiary institution. All patients underwent echocardiography. Sensitivity and specificity of the risk scores for predicting IE were calculated, and the incremental value of TTP was assessed. RESULTS: One hundred and six cases were analysed and 18 (17%) met definite IE criteria. The optimal TTP to predict IE was 11.5 h (sensitivity 88.9%; specificity 71.6%). The sensitivity of VIRSTA and PREDICT (Predicting risk of endocarditis using a clinical tool) were similar (94.4% for both) and higher than POSITIVE (Prediction Of Staphylococcus aureus Infective endocarditis Time to positivity, IV drug use, Vascular phenomena, pre-Existing heart condition; 77.8%). The receiver-operator characteristic AUCs were VIRSTA 0.83, PREDICT 0.75, POSITIVE 0.89 and TTP 0.85. Adding TTP to VIRSTA (i.e. VIRSTA+) resulted in the highest AUC (0.90), sensitivity (100%) and negative predictive value (100%), albeit with a low specificity (33%). CONCLUSIONS: The VIRSTA and POSITIVE scores were the strongest predictors for IE complicating SAB. The addition of TTP to VIRSTA (VIRSTA+) significantly improved discriminatory value and may be safely used to rationalize echocardiography strategies.

Infective Endocarditis: A Contemporary Study of Microbiology, Echocardiography and Associated Clinical Outcomes at a Major Tertiary Referral Centre.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of infective endocarditis (IE) continues to evolve, with antimicrobial resistance and clinical outcomes largely dependent on the environment of acquisition. This study aimed to provide a contemporary review of the microbiology and antimicrobial management of IE and report echocardiographic findings and predictors of adverse outcomes in community-acquired and health care-associated IE. METHODS: Consecutive presentations of IE to a major Australian tertiary referral centre between January 2011 and April 2016 were examined. Culprit organisms and resistance patterns were recorded, as was transthoracic and transoesophageal echocardiography. Real-world antimicrobial prescription and use of an outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) service were also assessed, and clinical outcomes analysed. RESULTS: Of 204 consecutive cases, 30% were associated with health care, a group with a higher burden of comorbidities and more prone to complications. Health care-associated cases had lower rates of surgical intervention but higher mortality. A history of intravenous drug use (IVDU) conferred risk for recurrent IE whereas multivalvular involvement predicted heart failure hospitalisation. Staphylococcus aureus was isolated in 45%. Whilst methicillin resistance remains low, the prevalence of S. aureus IE is increasing. Single antimicrobial agents were commonly used (83%) and therapy via OPAT was safe and significantly reduced length of hospital stay. Not undergoing transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) or definitive surgical management conferred poorer prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of IE is evolving and there is need for updated epidemiological data and associated clinical outcomes. Environment of acquisition remains important in the face of increasing health care provision and the changing predominance of culprit microorganisms.